Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
3692
The ALP will not be getting a Senate majority. The chances of the ALP + other crossbench making a Senate majority are also quite slim. When the realities of keeping people on Nauru (and in PNG if the Constitutional Challenge there fails) there will be increasing discord about the pacific dumping. The pendulum will swing the other way. Maybe then letting them on the planes will get the hearing it deserves.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:20 pm
So I’m advised.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:20 pm
I have previously posted this examination of the Greens’ fishery policy measures. I thought it might be interesting to see how they deal with large trawlers. In fact, the Greens have a policy measure (no
below. I assume that our large trawler is counted as a factory fish.
( I have relied heavily on the excellent report at:
http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abares20110830.01/AustFishStats_2010.pdf)
(1) complete the independent ecological assessment of Australia’s commercial fisheries under the provisions of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999.
No worries. We’ll make that one cost neutral.
(2) expand fisheries assessments to all Australian fisheries, including recreational fisheries, and develop and implement a national framework for managing recreational and charter fishing.
This is somewhat unclear, so I have to make some assumptions. The states might not go along with any national framework that the Greens would like. Nor would the like enforcement to be taken over by the Commonwealth. So, assume that states and territories maintain their policing effort. Anyway, for the sake of argument, assume that a Milne government gets its national framework up and implements it. Cost for expanding assessments to all fisheries: Say $2.5 million pa, times four over forward estimates: $10,000,000. Cost for monitoring, reporting and policing the framework nationally, say $5,000,000 per annum times four gets a forward estimates figure of $20,000,000.
(3) increase the number of Australia’s marine reserves, particularly where these improve the resilience of vulnerable fish populations.
What does this mean? By how many? Wild caught fisheries is around two thirds of $2.18 billion = $1.44 billion. Assume loss of wild caught fisheries per annum of 5%. Annual loss $7.2 million times four over forward estimates = $28.8 million. Assume job loss of 50. Fortunately the newly unemployed fishers will have the benefit of the Milne Greens government policy of full employment by way of government job creation. Cost to the budget: 50 times $20,000 gives an annual cost of $1 million, times four gives forward estimates cost of $4 million.
(4) strengthen and continue Australia’s proactive stance on illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing, including assisting in the development of alternative employment opportunities for impoverished communities now relying on the illegal trade.
It won’t solve the problem of global over-fishing. The problem is too many people chasing too few fish. Anyway, we’ll whack in a $5,000,000 pa foreign aid program; times four over forward estimates: $20,000,000.
(5) in cooperation with the states and territories, develop a nationally agreed framework for the assessment and regulation of aquaculture developments based on ecosystems management principles.
Here is the urge to render everything national. In this case ‘framework’ is a euphemism for new legislation. Who knows what ‘ecosystem management principles’ are? Or how they might affect aquaculture development. Let’s assume that it does not lead to existing aquaculture industries being shut down if they do not meet ‘ecosystem management principles’.
So: more delays, more regulation, more bureaucracy and, presumably, more constraints. Let’s say that the legislation, implementation of regulations, monitoring and reporting costs $5,000,000 per annum times four gives forward estimates of $20,000,000. Economic opportunity lost to the aquaculture industry? Who knows.
(6) implement a moratorium on deep-sea bottom trawling in Australian waters and require by-catch reduction in all trawl fisheries.
I assume that this kills off the scallop industry pro tem. Annual cost to industry, say, $25,000,000 times four for forward estimates: $80,000,000. Assume 200 job losses. Job creation cost: $20,000 per head = $4 million per annum, times four gives forward estimates of $16,000,000 cost to the budget.
(7) maintain adequate, biologically representative ‘no-take’ areas within each fishery and/or marine bioregion.
Assume this is a duplicate to policies for marine reserves, assessment (and quotas) for all fishery species and bans on bottom trawling. Assume that this policy is symbolic and redundant.
(8) ban all factory-ship based fishing in Australian pelagic fisheries.
Since the quantities of fish caught are limited by quotas, I am not sure why a Milne Greens government would want to make harvesting more expensive. Anyway, let’s say that the additional cost of production arising from this measure is $2.5 million per year times four gives a forward estimates figure of $10 million.
Summary: The expenditure measures are uncosted and unfunded. Implementation time frames are absent. Key implementation parameters are sometimes very vague. There are the usual increases in regulation, oversight, bureaucracy, reductions in existing industry activity, increased costs of production, and a likely reduction in potential commercial activity along with consequent job losses. Cost to budget over forward estimates (mainly for additional bureaucratic activity and job losses = $90,000,000. The direct measurable cost to current industry activity over forward estimates = $118,800,000. Additional COL pressues are there but are not quanitified and not even acknowledged. Revenues identified to cover additional costs: zero.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:20 pm
In a case of delicious Schadenfreude:
Hungarian anti-Semitic party leader discovers he is Jewish
by Fran Barlow on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Good idea… you rest. We’ll call when you’re needed.
by Gecko on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:23 pm
confessions @ 3695
Not according to Psephos.
Can’t you Rudd haters even get your story consistent?
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Running Total back of the envelope costing of Greens policies (amended to include Fisheries policies expenditures):
Uranium policy: $1.26 billion.#
Fisheries policy: $90 million.
Science and Technology: $1.024 billion.
Hecs and Fee Help Foregone: $23 billion
Uni Fees discarded: $20 billion
Cover extra weeks leave for Commonwealth employees: $912,000,000.
Drop TAFE fees and charges: $2.040 billion.
Means tested adequate living allowance: $1.5 billion.
Arts programs: $230 million***
Government job creation scheme for the unemployed: $38.4 billion**
Additional revenue: company tax from 30% to 33%: $8.4 billion*.
Shortfall: $80.086 billion shortfall.
#Assumes that the government will pay no compensation to owners of uranium deposits, estimated at over $1 trillion. Does not include revenue foregone. Does not take into account $2 billion plus loss of exports over forward estimates.
*assumes (a) that private investment would continue at current rates and (b) that the various additional costs, regulatory, monitoring and reporting requirements are cost-free.
**assumes 6% unemployment rate.
***various assumptions made about program size and about direct cost to government of regulatory measures
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 pm
zoomster:
That is even worse!
by confessions on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 pm
May want to check you have a good doona…..could be a long while!
by Mod Lib on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Is Mr Pyne feeling a bit ashen at some Ashby fallout?
He looked distinctly peaky at QT today.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Abut a third of the debt the ALP has got us into then eh?
by Mod Lib on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Just to throw a cat amongst the pigeons, and realising I’m in a small minority, I am totally opposed to offshore processing. It is inhumane, and human rights and dignity cannot be assured.
This has always been my opinion, so The Greens should not get excited and try to recruit me as a late converter to their view. I’m not.
Malcolm Fraser has said it all. I’m with him.
by feeney on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Me too!
by Mod Lib on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Should we be surprised that Hockey’s black hole is even more at an estimated $100b?
Today’s Liberals are even more profligate than the Greens who have wishy-washy feel good, do nothing policies?
That’s just brilliant.
by confessions on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Perhaps, UK, Canada,India, NZ and others will send them broke.
Maybe shares will be become so low , shareholders will bring it down
by Schnappi on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Some might be tempted to suggest you need better advisors … but I’d never do that.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Admiral Horthy once told Hitler: “If we get rid of all the Jews in Hungary there will no-one left but the Gypsies.” Most of the urban population at least has some Jewish descent.
The heading seems a bit misleading: it sounds as though he knew all along and others have discovered he’s Jewish. How could not have known his grandmother was Jewish? Jewish grandmothers are not known for discretion.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Although to be fair to the Greens, at least they have policies. The Liberals just have 3 word slogans.
How many 3 word slogans can fit into a $100b black hole?
by confessions on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Psephos @ 3701
Answer the question. What issues has Rudd been “leaking and destabilising” on? You seem coy on this matter. I can understand why. It’s hard to leak and destabilise when you are not even in Cabinet.
I’m pleased to know, if your post was accurate, that Rudd abused and swore at Senator Feeney et al in that confrontation in his office back in 2010.
The factional hacks all need a kick up the arse!!
by feeney on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:31 pm
3 word slogans like:
“Prime Minister Abbott”?
by Mod Lib on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Abbott has ensured the next lib pm, when ever will have Liar attached to its name, and never referred to as PM, except by msm
by Schnappi on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Read the BISONS … go through them slowly and try to let all the good news sink in.
by Gecko on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Mod Lib @ 3710
How far can youse libs take this childish “debt” cargo cult??
by swamprat on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Till the next election I suspect
by Mod Lib on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:36 pm
This is an example of why it is incorrect to refer to the Liberal Party as conservatives. They are right-wing reactionaries who have zero respect for our traditional values, or maybe its they just do not understad it.n
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/right-to-remain-not-quite-so-silent-lawyers-react-20120815-2484f.html
by swamprat on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:38 pm
TLBD
Peaky or Pekingese ?
http://www.dogbreedinfo.com/images19/PekingeseSissiePrincess11YearsOld1.JPG
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Mod LIb
You are really are a cluck, sometimes.
The Greens black hole is progressive – I have yet to address all their ambitions.
I would like to be able to do something similar for the Coalition but they are hiding their $70 billion deficit budgets under a bushel. That is before they start cutting taxes and increasing expenditure. I imagine that Messers Abbott, Hockey, Robb and Deputy Prime Minister Joyce would make CanDo’s manic recessive impact on the Queensland economy look like amateur hour… oh… wait.
It is only Labor that is budgetting for a surplus.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Feeney
I think Malcolm Fraser’s point about what the reaction would be if a group of white farmers from Zimbabwe showed up in Australian seas seeking asylum shows the whole debate for what it is. Paul Keating has a similar position
by spur212 on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:42 pm
poroti,
Must be the teeth.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Talk about a catastrophic humiliation for Labor. There’s no way back for them now except to try to pretend this never happened.
John Howard must be laughing his a*** off in front of the telly.
by Nemspy on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:43 pm
TLBD,
Ah, her daily workout.
by fiona on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:44 pm
White farmers (and black farmers ftm) from Zimbabwe can get visas to fly into the country. So unless Fraser is arguing that the current visa allocation system needs overhauling (on which he has a point IMO), his analogy with boat people from the Middle East fails.
by confessions on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:45 pm
I doubt whether Zimbabwean White Farmers would have any difficulty with getting business visas or the like:
At the time of independence in 1980, over 40% of the country’s farming land was contained within 5,000 white farms.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Do not expect any changes of poll figures in the next set of polls.
The electorate are not interested in politics at the moment.
They constantly hear the continuous negative sound bites directed at the government by the mainstream media and WELLA… it all adds up to current polling.
Sure Julia has had a good week or so, but that will take time to filter through to the electorate.
At present, the only polls that matter are that of Tony Abbott’s.
The monkey
is too unpopular to become Prime Minister. 
by Centre on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:46 pm
I’m feeling decidedly peaky. I just watched an episode of ‘The Shire’.
My eldest son normally forbids it, but he’s out tonight, so I thought I would watch it purely for the purpose of educating myself about the electors in Scott Morrison’s electorate.
And they’re all like him! Blondes who spew out rehearsed lines for the cameras!
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:46 pm
spur
sigh. I have previously outlined here the difficulties I had trying to get a white Zimbabwean millionaire out here to look after his blind father.
Not only would he have been an economic gain to Australia, but he would have taken his father out of the nursing home to care for him (the reason he wanted to come out).
Don’t know if he ever made it.
Lesson: The Department of Immigration hates everyone. It is not prejudiced.
by zoomster on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Time for bed. Good night all.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:47 pm
spur212 @ 3727
You may be right but if you mean it is all about skin “colour” (the reference to “white” implies that), I am not so sure. I do not think many “white” Australians have any concerns about Vietnamese, Chinese etc.
I think there is a fear of Muslims which is a religious ideology.
by swamprat on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:47 pm
That would be because the factional right mafia couldn’t use the party like their private puppet under Rudd. Rudd stuck it up them and poor old feeney, didums.
And this is what this is ALL about.
by Thomas. Paine. on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:48 pm
3716
Hitler was not to fond of the Roma either.
Maybe his grandparents kept quite about their identity because of their experiences? A rift in the family?
by Tom the first and best on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Is Menzies House having a sleep-over? They seem to be MIA.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:49 pm
In between trips to the letterbox to see if that knighthood has arrived…
by Roy Orbison on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Indeed, not a principle Gillard wont sacrifice I guess.
In the end all Liberal policy will become Labor policies…just give it time. Howard didn’t need another term really.
by Thomas. Paine. on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Fraser’s point is that the whole debate is and always has been about “people like us” not “leaky boats”
If anyone would know, it’s Fraser. If you read his book, he says the immigration department even when he was PM had a culture of racism always underlying everything they did and they strongly opposed him when he accepted the 2000 boat people fleeing Vietnam
by spur212 on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:51 pm
m n mn mn m nmvn
by ShowsOn on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:52 pm
spur212
Yes, Fraser hit it right on the head. The white farmers would be welcomed with open arms. There’d be none of this Nauru/PNG facade. They would be processed on shore and their applications assessed through the appropriate channels.
But who really cares anymore?
by feeney on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:52 pm
SCREW YOU ALL!
by ShowsOn on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:52 pm
OH SHIT! SORRY!
by ShowsOn on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Roy,
That’s Hyacinth’s job.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:53 pm
3732
The people who use boats to get here are less fortunate than those who can use planes. A simple change in plane boarding policy/law would enable the former to become the latter and equal things out.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:53 pm