Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
by Space Kidette on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:27 pm
lol rummel
by Meguire Bob on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Well, i support a bog standard detention centres on Nauru which should save some money. You cant gold plate these type of things… PM does not like it.
by rummel on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Labor position – Back the expert panel proposals
Liberal position – To be determined.
Greens position – NO.
Public – Want something done.
Do the math and see who the benefits.
by deflationite on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Sk
Nah. The Bill will be written to kill of any chance of the High Court, the Greens and the Coalition once again consigning people to the drowning option.
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Lol, i have never seen Saint Keven described like this.
by rummel on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Tempa started the long and tortuious path down the sewer, since, billion have been swasted on this non issues. It is sad the the PM has to bluff with another couple of billion to put an end to it, but so be it.
by fredn on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:29 pm
So rummel in your view howie stuffed up with all that money for nothing?
by WeWantPaul on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Graeme Morris gives senility a bad name!
by BK on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:30 pm
r
You mean that it is not Mother Mary McK?
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:30 pm
BK
It is interesting to think that he was Mr Howard’s Peta.
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Tampa? Pot and kettle, rummel. Howard politicised this. Your selective amnesia is showing.
by Lynchpin on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:31 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-backs-experts-asylum-seeker-report-20120813-24417.html
by Leroy on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Where the Greens may be in trouble, fredn, is that an attempt at a regional solution and stopping the drowning will help Labor regain its base. A lot of it has been parked with the Greens and ‘others’ in opinion polling.
If Labor regains its base, there is a lot less need for the Greens. As BW has shown, a lot of the Greens policies are unsustainable as a major political party.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:32 pm
There was never nothing more than a tempory holding center on Nauru.
by fredn on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Abbott would have to vote for processing to commence immediately on Nauru and Manus, surly?
I hope he says NO!
What he will say no to is Malaysia, but then the buck stops with him.
As for the Greens… WOW!
They have been screwed – ROYALLY screwed
by Centre on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Morris gives concentrated evil a bad name.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:32 pm
BW
Hard to kill of the chance of the High Court.
Many have tried and have failed to shut it out from an adjudicative function eg John Fahey in legislating for an individual to be kept in prison.
by shellbell on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:33 pm
by Leroy on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:33 pm
You should have seen Minchin.
by CTar1 on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:34 pm
its Saint Kev and when he leads Labor to Victory next year it will indeed be a miracle and he will be on his way to Canonization.
by rummel on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:34 pm
How did today get reported in red neck radio land ? Well in this part of the world WOW. I tuned into the 3:00 news and even the Labor PR machine could not have written it better. First up news item. radio man introduces the committee’s announcement and says Labor accepts in principal all of the recommendation. Says PM says she is willing to comprimise. Then audio of PM saying we must compromise and not stick to our fixed positions. Oh and double bonus no mention at all of Coalition. It really left the impression that failure to get something up would belong to Tones mob.
by poroti on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:35 pm
SHY has really gone feral and lost it completely for dumping on Paris Aristotle as if he has sold out
by The Finnigans on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:35 pm
from the SMH Media writer
by Leroy on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Labor will win if they gain Liberal votes. Granted the Greens make it harder for the left to have a voice in labor, but those difficulties arrived long before the Greens.
At 11% the greens are not about to form government. And like it or not, there is 10% of the population who will never vote 1 labor or liberal.
by fredn on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:36 pm
You know, the Oakeshott bill was even softer than this report
The Greens = Totally Irrelevant
by Centre on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:37 pm
TLBD @ 332,
As nice as this new string?
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?hl=en&biw=1024&bih=658&tbm=isch&tbnid=jYcKTEkdan2lqM:&imgrefurl=http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-accuses-thomson-of-misleading-parliament-20120522-1z2ic.html&docid=gCMnDoAOnCS6BM&imgurl=http://images.theage.com.au/2012/05/22/3316136/al-mirabella_20120522155402307941-420×0.jpg&w=420&h=304&ei=Zq0oUJ_NGaSciAeY6IFw&zoom=1
by fiona on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:37 pm
The greens screwed themselves when they played politics but called it principle. Abbotts major strength is all the media know he had no principle at all and then they fall into the trap of judging him by that standard. That is Abbott set expectations massively low and then failed to meet then.
The greens by wrapping themselves in principle, the highest possible standard, but then execute to Abbott’s level have a massive yawning credibility Gap that no amount of blind faith in a convention could ever hope to save. It is so incredibly stupid there is a risk some of the faithful will see through the scam. That might hurt.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Contains information on the northernmost settlement in the world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellesmere_Island
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Coalition now attacking the Government for incompetence.
Unless you are for on shore processing you will believe the Coalition not Labor as an average voter. You can be sure the MSM is oing to report it that way.
by guytaur on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:39 pm
I hope (but I also very much doubt) people on here appreciate how seriously screwed up the issue of the politics of asylum seeker policy has become for the ALP under Julia Gillard’s leadership
by spur212 on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:39 pm
fiona
OK. OK. You ruined it for everyone.
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:39 pm
BW
And in stiff competition with Hyacinth!
by BK on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:40 pm
I dunno how the main news services will report it, but the 7 headlines are already giving it a very anti-Labor spin as usual. “‘The Government told to send asylum seekers to Nauru by its own expert panel’”
by rishane on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:40 pm
BW,
Couldn’t resist
by fiona on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:41 pm
My member (ughhh!) Briggs being a horrible prat re AS on ABC24.
by BK on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:41 pm
I very much doubt you could see anything positive to say about the ALP ever.
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:41 pm
I made this point earlier. The Greens have cut off their nose to spite their face again.
by ruawake on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:41 pm
Centre
I have said before. ALP voting together makes the Greens irrelevant.
Until Abbott says yes what the Greens say is relevant.
Jamie Briggs lready saying no no to the must vote yes argument.
by guytaur on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:41 pm
fredn
So, you would be quite happy for the Greens to continue to despoil the centre left vote and give the reactionaries government.
No shame.
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:41 pm
spur since August 2008 when Labor took a principled position on AS they have been on the backfoot over the issue and stumbled from one failed policy position to the next. This is their chance to at least neutralise the issue to a large extent.
by davidwh on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:42 pm
fiona
Your point was fair comment, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:42 pm
And about bloody time! She should put Pell on cc too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-13/child-inquiry-upd/4195386
by BK on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Hey, what if Christmas Island was once more part of “onshore Australia”? Then CI would be onshore processing and might satisfy SH-Y and all the other backers.
OK, cut that.
You can tell I’m getting sick of the whole argument.
Let’s hope I represent the majority of voters
by lizzie on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Spur212
Have a look at their respective pressers.
Morrison looked like a desperate little shitface.
WOW, I have never seen Julia look so Prime Ministerial and strong. Yes, truly, even better than John Howard.
I hope your mob led by that primate still says NO.
by Centre on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:43 pm
WeWantPaul 427 – Well said.
Spur212 – This issue has been screwed for many years and basically the ALP, Libs and Greens are all tainted but at least Gillard has tried to do something, sure it isn’t prefect but this issue has no prefect solution unless you can wave a wand and all wars, poverty, torture and bigoted hate disappear.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:44 pm
WW putting it to Briggs that the Coalition has been trashing Malaysia.
by BK on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:44 pm
centre
Indeed he did!
by BK on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Finns
It looks like they are on to the Mutant Butterfuly Division of F,B,F&Co. The business case for discontinuing the Division is now inescapable. Remember our mantra: ‘We Know Knothing.’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-13/fukushima-mutant-butterflies/4194240
by Boerwar on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Lizzie – You do, people are tried of this issue, they want it resolved
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 13, 2012 at 5:45 pm