Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Oh. My. Effing. Godwin!
I don’t know what’s funnier, that the Goblin is off his meds and harbouring delusions of being a political commentator, or that the SMH would publish his bile.
But then I remember this is Australia 2012 and Grech’s piece is no where near the low point of political commentary here.
This country is officially no longer capable of being satirised.
by ratsak on Aug 17, 2012 at 6:48 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers!
To add to your Oh. My. Effing. Godwin! list, ratsack, former High Court judge Ian Callinan is starring on the online OO’s front page, warning of a “media muzzle”. A brigade of white shoes is haunting my dreams again!
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 17, 2012 at 6:59 am
Wheres emmo?
No health insurance wipeout there on my tv, no health insurance wipeout there on my tv
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/surge-in-health-fund-membership-20120816-24ar3.html#ixzz23kFcdoWc
by castle on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:00 am
Bar Bar @5753:
It is convoluted, yes. But the only alternative explanation that can be made from it is that the independents asked Abbott what he would say if he was asked to implement a price on carbon, to which he replied he would do anything they asked (except sell his arse, and I think he was being literal there), and then they didn’t ask him. Which would have been not only counter-productive but stupid on the part of the Independents.
I disagree also that agreeing to an ETS or Carbon Price would have sold out Abbott’s credibility. He’s on record in the past as saying that placing a tax on carbon emissions is the best solution, so he could have pointed to that when questioned about it. It would have been easy for him to say something like “I voted against it last Novemeber because I didn’t trust the ALP to implement it properly, they always stuff things up etc. But the proposal put forward by the Independents is a sensible one.”
Abbott sought to re-write the story when he failed to reach an agreement with the Independents. He sought to portray himself as a man of principle who couldn’t reach an agreement with them because of fundamental differences. Windsor is telling us that’s a load of rubbish, that Abbott begged them and offered anything they wanted, but they just didn’t trust him at his word.
Fair call too. If you’ve got one person saying, “this is what we want, let’s see what you want and work out some kind of compromise,” and another saying, “anything, anything, just give me the job!” which one would you trust?
by Aguirre on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:02 am
Henry:
He has no accusers, yet. It’s unlikely the Swedes will ever be amongst them.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:05 am
Is grech hoping for a job if tone becomes pm, head of treasury?
he did tone two favours, helped destro turnballs leadership and damaged rudd and swan.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/public-sector-needs-to-be-more-accountable-says-grech-20120816-24bj0.html#ixzz23kGiGgZ7
by castle on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:05 am
Good morning Bludgers!
The world has officially gone mad.
Godwin Grech!
Sheesh. I am speechless.
by Danny Lewis on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:11 am
he promised wilkie $1 billion for a hospital which had the opposite effect that tone intended of making wilkie extremely wary of him.
credibility wise most believe windsor and wilkie over tone but most also believe pollies lie.
the honest john moniker never hurt howard that much until Work Choices is good for you which was one lie too far.
by castle on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:12 am
The other option is that Grech is actually a double-agent, working with the Turnbull forces to help remove Abbott by writing something so obviously bat-shit insane that they hope people will take from it the exact opposite of what was said.
ie:
* Abbott should NOT be PM if a mad man thinks he should be
* Howard should NOT be GG if a mad man thinks he should be
* Turnbull IS the best man to lead the Liberal Party
One thing is for sure, it’s either pure madness or sheer genius
by Danny Lewis on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:16 am
Danny Lewis,
I’m sure Australia is Wonderland and I am Alice.
by Space Kidette on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:18 am
Wow, the LNP believe that a colour weightless gas is causing climate change, does tone know.
Ahh, but before jones bolt et al shit themselves there is a but.
so why give this heavily qualified support?
So a nice neat statement that appeases the LNP supporters who want involvement by saying we support Kyoto 2 and then appeases those who oppose Kyoto 2 by saying but only if
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-supports-sequel-to-kyoto-protocol-20120815-2495l.html#ixzz23kJYKx7q
by castle on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:21 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Windbag Tony Wright and Jaqueline Maley have some fun with Windsor’s spray.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/message-by-tony-express-youre-a-disgrace-abbott-20120816-24bix.html
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hind-sight-cheeky-history-lesson-for-abbott-20120816-24bgi.html
Just read this fawning claptrap from Goblin Gretch! The headline says it all.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-pm-and-gg-howard-will-restore-the-golden-days-20120816-24bk1.html
The quicker the lid gets blown off this despicable organisation the better!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-pope-the-stolen-papers-and-the-butler-20120816-24bf7.html
Cathy Wilcox with another dig at Big Tobacco.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/08/16/3559149/663803448t-600×400.jpg
David Pope has rung the bell on the Great Unhingement!</b?
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg totally nails the fallacy of Big Tobacco's fatuous arguments.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/08/16/3559201/Tandberg-smoke-16aug-600×400.jpg
by BK on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:22 am
could be right danny, godwin says tone has a strong moral compass and 1st class intellect, sounds like he is painting him as a chardonnay sipping leftie.
and pm in the mould of howie, Work Choices, dog whistling, uncomfortable with asian faces, great endorsement
by castle on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:25 am
@JuliaGillard @CraigEmersonMP @AlboMP @SwannyDPM @MikeKellyMP Tony Abbott would have taxed carbon: Tony Windsor – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-would-have-taxed-carbon-tony-windsor/story-fn59niix-1226452131810
by The Finnigans on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:29 am
And from the Land of the Free -
A great cartoon showing the bias of FoxNews.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/foxshines.jpg
Another hate-based shooting. Is there no end?
http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/hate-group-any-other-name-assessing-
by BK on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:34 am
Gee, fell asleep in front of the telly last night at 8.30 and didn’t wake up till just now (must have needed it), so missed the Grech boilover.
Is he serious? Is he really snarking off at public servants for being biased? Grech?
I thought for the last Newspoll they were getting a bit desperate for stuff to put together to soften up the figures for Gillard, but this takes the cake.
Jesus wept, why would Fairfax print this rubbish?
I thought for a moment it was just a bit of fun, but when you read the bio at the bottom…
… and note that it doesn’t mention Ute Gate you get the impression they’re really serious.
You see them on twitter, hovering around like blow flies: those duffers who think Emo’s song and dance is going to lose Labor the election, or Swan and The Boss, or that stupid story about the Gillard “Love Nest”.
Someone, somewhere in Fairfax really seems to believe that they’ve had a secret weapon all ready for the killer blow: an op-ed by Godwin Grech.
Restore the “Golden Years”? Abbott and Howard together? Criticism of a partisan public service, from the arch rat of rats, a man whose name is synonymous with faithlessness and duplicity, Godwin Grech himself?
Grech dumps a big bucket, he is still betraying the man who (foolishly) went along with his scam, backing Grech to the hilt, calling Turnbull untrustworthy and flaky, not leadership material.
“Pot v. Kettle” is too tame a phrase.
The Australian media has descended into high farce.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:35 am
So the Mad Monk is being endorsed by a mad man – plus Hyacinth as GG -http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-pm-and-gg-howard-will-restore-the-golden-days-20120816-24bk1.html whooppeeee – it’s a mad mad mad mad world
by The Finnigans on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:38 am
BB
Now you are awake I draw your attention to David Pope’s cartoon where he calls the start of the Great Unhingement.
http://images.theage.com.au/2012/08/16/3561046/np-pope17-gallery-20120816220539439908-600×400.jpg
by BK on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:38 am
BK, Pope’s cartoons are the best drawn and most biting in the mainstream media. I saw that one before, when you listed it a few posts ago. Brilliant stuff.
Pope is a great artist and has a stiletto wit. Brilliant cartoonist.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:42 am
The hypocrisy of the West. If China has done what UK is doing to Assange the West would be outraged. btw not a supporter
by The Finnigans on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:45 am
Godwin Grech wants to restore the “Golden Years” – http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-pm-and-gg-howard-will-restore-the-golden-days-20120816-24bk1.html – yep, bring back Menzies & The Great White Australian Policy
by The Finnigans on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:48 am
Morning All
Godwin Grech??? Sure someone is taking the piss LOL
Good to see he is on the mend though and his mental health has obviously improved.
Well done to the Greens for trying to make the Pacific Solution Mark 2 a little more humane, unfortunately it wasn’t to be. Will be interesting to see how people react to the first stories that come out of self harm and the like
Fascinating that we’ve finally had a Rudd free fortnight, will there be any flow on to the Newspoll figures???
by womble on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:49 am
Morning all
Finns. The UK should allow Assange clear passage to Ecuador, never to be seen or heard from again.
Now re Godwin Gretch. All I can say. WTF!
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:49 am
Surely this is a pi$$take. The Fairfax editorial staff must be setting Abbott up, surely. I mean, to have to rely on this disgraced former public servant for a reference is really scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Why do I get the impression the rats are desserting the Abbott ship?
by Lynchpin on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:52 am
Lynchpin
Definitely seems that way. Windsor’s comments in parliament are a case in point. Also, windsor pointed to his blackberry after he made this comments. He was sending a very clear message to Abbott. From my perspective, he is telling Abbott. Enough of your lies
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:55 am
Lynchpin #5923
Does the latest exciting episode of the Ashby saga – something tte of removing ‘criminal’ from the charge of copying Slipper’s diary from Brough, Lewis et cet – play out today?
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:58 am
OPT
I believe so. Should any parallels be drawn from this?
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:59 am
re health jnsurance: high income earners face a strong tax penalty if they drop hospital cover, so they were never going to be doing that. But they will tend to reduce their level of hospital cover and many will drop their extras cover, reducing the total pool of private health funds available for the care of lower income members: a high proportion of whom are old and sick. This will in turn put more pressure on the public system.
Lefties continue to fail to understand that the PHI rebate was not so much a subsidy for individuals (as, say, assistance to private schools effectively is) as it is for the system of private hospitals and the community-based health services which are not funded through Medicare (dentistry, etc). A significant part of that subsidy has now been pulled, and the medium-term consequence will be a decline in the level of service for everyone, rich or poor.
The lefties behind this measure don’t care because they want Australia to have to endure a totally socialist health system. Not that they would ever want to make use of such a system for themselves or their families. Nor, increasingly, do they send their kids to public schools (“I’m still a strong supporter of the public system but we found that the local state school just wasn’t right for our Johnny”).
Lefties really are silly people, but unfortunately the right is even sillier!!!
by meher baba on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:00 am
meher baba
What is your take on GGrech’s piece today?
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:01 am
Oz Pol, I don’t understand why Slipper’s legal advisers are removing the word “unlawful” from their claims. Any thoughts?
by Lynchpin on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:01 am
What Mike Kelly thinks
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:02 am
Vic, the glory of the Olympics has gone to the pommy head. they have fucked it up big time
by The Finnigans on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:03 am
The finns
Whilst i believe Assange is a first class buffoon, the UK have indeed stuffed this up. JA has been granted asylum. He should be allowed clear passage to Ecuador. Full stop.
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:06 am
Victoria: as I said earlier, the guy has always been a complete nutter, with extreme delusions of grandeur. That some senior public servants saw fit to promote him way above his level of competence is symptomatic of 1) the enduring power of extreme brown-nosing and 2) the decline in the once-great institution of our public servants.
I think Godwin has long wanted to become a commentator. I think the article appears first in the Australian Spectator, which I believe is struggling for readership and would embrace Grech’s notoriety.
Why did Phil Coorey choise to draw attention to it? I suspect a bit of mischievousness on his part.
by meher baba on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:11 am
Lynchpin
Some bludgers here opined that removing the word ‘unlawful’ from the claim, would make redundant the constitutional question Ashby’s lawyers have raised. It would then clear the way for the matter to continue. At present, the case is being held up because of this
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:13 am
meher baba
Mischievousness towards the Libs? Well I never!
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:14 am
Lynchpin: I could be wrong, but I gather it is to expedite the claim. With the “unlawful” there, it evidently opens the case up to more complicated litigation.
by Danny Lewis on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:14 am
Morning all. It’s official. Tony Windsor did get the magic word into Hansard:
by triton on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:15 am
triton
That is brilliant!!
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:15 am
ha ha ha as i predicted, the British Gunboat Diplomacy strikes again – http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2012/8/16/1345139143433/17.08.12-Steve-Bell-on-th-006.jpg – from the Guardian
by The Finnigans on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:16 am
Now that the amendments to the migration act have passed both houses of parliament, offshore processing can now proceed. Will be interesting to see if it is indeed a deterrence. If not, what will the fibs have to say then?
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:17 am
Victoria, maybe it’s just my cynical mind that wonders whether someone at Fairfax is paying off a score against Murdoch’s Mob in a Newspoll Week by disinterring Godwin memories on a day bloggers and tweeters are commenting on today’s proceedings re the latest attempt to roll a Labor government using:
* a mug staffer who’s devised a Cunning Plan;
* senior Liberals intent on destroying the government by foul means or fair;
* an “anything it takes to knock off a Labor PM” NewsLtd shockjock journo;
none of whom seems to know squat about the permanent traceability of computer-based communication!
OTOH, endorsement by Fairfax might just be an innocent attempt to help Murdoch’s devious plan to take over the Oz government, NBN, ABC, SBS ….
Yeah. Right.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:18 am
OPT
Your cynical mind is probably on the money!
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:22 am
OPT – almost forgot about court today, hope the Justice agrees with Slipper’s lawyers
Triton – beautiful, and if it wasn’t true surely Abbott would’ve asked for it to be withdrawn???
Victoria – simple, no TPV’s and Towbacks – plenty of outs for them. I’d be shocked if the boats don’t “stop” or at least dramatically slow down (at a very high price in more than one way) – asylum seekers aren’t stupid and will look for alternatives. No boats = no front pages on asylum seekers??? wait and see I think
Better get to work, have a great day All
by womble on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:23 am
It’s over an hour since I first read it, and I still can’t get my head around Godwin in the SMH. As SK said it’s Wonderland stuff. Just so mind bogglingly obtuse that I can’t process it at all. You just couldn’t make this sort of shit up.
The only thing I can take from it is that my previous conjecture that Abbott could just go up like the Hindenburg leaving all those who had supported him standing around looking singed and sheepish is more likely than I’d believed. It is taking a superhuman effort of reality denial to keep his ship aloft. Grech getting a by-line as a public servant who has “20 years serving successive Labor and Coalition governments in both Treasury and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet” is just symptomatic of the fundamental design flaws of the conveyance Abbott’s enablers are trying to gloss over as they herd us on board. It all seems to be going so well, such a lovely way to travel, so long as you can put the fact that you’ve strapped yourself to a bomb out of your mind. When you a floating around under such a huge balloon full of hydrogen you can’t afford a single spark. Just one tiny spark.
by ratsak on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:23 am
Good morning all.
With carbon pricing, the mining tax and offshore refugee processing through parliament, is there anything else on the PM’s Rudd clean-up list left to fulfill?
by confessions on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:24 am
The Midnight Gardener calls for greater transparency and accountability in the public sector.
Damn that ergot-infested rye!
There wouldn’t be too many people who could make George Orwell and Peter Cook laugh as one from beyond the grave.
by Inner Westie on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:28 am
Godwin Grech trolling hard in Fairfax today. Hilarious.
by Burgey on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:28 am
Given the hammering the PM will take in the next poll and beyond I think the best one can hope for now is a Turnbull primeministership.
We can laugh at Grech but face it there’s a better than good chance the tories will win next year and Howard as GG is an absolute dead cert.
It will be too too delicious for the tories not to rub Labor’s face in it as we head into 10 to 15 years of coalition hell.
by rosemour on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:28 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-ministers-on-preselection-hit-list-20120816-24bje.html#ixzz23kcCvY9J
by confessions on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:29 am