Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Assange could be offered a Professorship in attention whoring at an Ecudorian university.
That’s how the US got that Chinese human rights campaigner to the U.S.
Well I think it was a visiting Professor in law. But same principle.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:06 am
confessions
Canberra is always a great place to visit. Particularly with family here.
Yesterday was spent basking in the glory of seeing the beginning of the end for Abbott – all in PB widescreen!
by BK on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:08 am
Godwin’s piece in the SMH would be all the evidence required by any competent defence lawyer to prove that he was not of sound mind.
by ratsak on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:08 am
Same punterville which has abbott winning the election after Katter gave support to the coaliton
going on the punterville predictions labor is a lay down to retain government
by Meguire Bob on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:11 am
Vic
According to Andrew Probyn in the West today, the get of jail for the conservatives as far as AS are concerned are the TPVs and Tow Back – if the revised strategy does not work.
Probyn has made great play of the fact that Rudd warned Labor that if they went down the Liberal track, all Abbott would do is shift the goal posts. And, as Barrie Cassidy pointed out this morning, Abbott has not been held to account in that he did not get what he wanted either from the Houston deal – but the latter has quietly been slid under the door.
In the meantime, Porbyn has beaten up the recent “pirate” issue on the vehicle ship saying “the PM was caught flat-footed” as she did not send in the troops to deal with said “pirates”. He maintains the conservatives have wedged Gillard in that she has showed herself not to have been willing to go in hard enough on the issue.
To that extent – by way of perception – he may have a point.
It has to be remembered that Probyn help break the Parsifal story and has a vested interest in keeping it going. On the other hand, I think most have stopped listening and the general feeling, is that on an issue that could never be a winner for Labor, a lot of the heat will now be taken out of it.
On early ABC Newsradio the Corey agreed that Labor has come out of the week better than it went in and not only that, a short-lived period of eating humble pie will be well worth the price come the 2013 election.
The significant point is that Labor is with the boat issue, plain paper wrapping for cigarettes and a range of other issues, on the front foot.
by Tricot on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:12 am
Poroti,
Could be time to open up a Godwin Grech songbook with all the songs with mad or crazy in the title!
OPT,
I had forgotten it also! I too have rectified my playlists and have also been dancing around the house singing my head off! (sorry for the horrific image!)
by Space Kidette on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:14 am
Have no doubt you’re right, but I reckon it will be a trump held back to win a later trick.
by ratsak on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:14 am
BK
What’s it’s “night life”, so to speak, like there these days? The last time I was there I think the city centre, if you can call it that, had one pizza place open late and that was about it. That was about a decade ago.
by triton on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:15 am
pedant horror: its “night life”
by triton on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:16 am
BK,
Are you going to visit the War Memorial? It is my favourite place to visit. There is something about the place that just feels right.
by Space Kidette on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:16 am
tricot
I am sure the govt know the game Abbott and Co are playing with the asylum seeker policy.
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:19 am
What nonsense.
Gillard will appoint the next GG before the 2013 election and it won’t be howard.
I’m almost tempted to bet my arse on it.
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:22 am
triton
I not really a night time person so I can’t comment.
Kidette
Visiting the War Memorial is a memorable and poignant experience that all Aussies should undertake.
I always like to take the opportunity to visit the High Court when it is in session and to see the law on trial. Old Parliament House is always worth revisiting as is the Art Gallery, National Portrait Gallery and a well kept secret, the National Library (take the guided tour).
Every school child should come here to see our democracy in action.
by BK on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:22 am
And while we are about it, straws in the wind I know, there is little call now, out in said “punterland” for an early election. In fact, Corey again, or was it his ABC mate? made the point that around now was the two-years-ago anniversary of the change of leadership.
For most it is now long gone and forgotten and even the media has not be able to revive this dead horse.
On top of this, all the talk is about – as the two talking heads said this morning, that “Labor would be hoping to have a better third year than their first two years.”
I don’t agree that the past two years have been “bad” for Labor – tough, yes, but the interesting point is that there is now (all other things being equal) an expectation that this government will go full term.
There is now a realisation, with runs on the board, Labor does have now, and will have, something to take to an election campaign.
Provided Rudd can keep his mouth shut and the media actually do start to put some heat on Abbott, a Labor win is just as likely as not come the next election.
It is still a day by day, week by week and month by month proposition but hey, just how many have been so wrong about the demise of this government?
by Tricot on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:23 am
BK,
Agreed.
by Space Kidette on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:23 am
Good Morning Bludgeketeers!
Tricot saying:
made me think that these ‘Pirates’ must have been the first in history to seek to inflict harm on themselves rather than on those people manning the ship they had ‘taken over’.
by C@tmomma on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:27 am
The sting in that tail will be the extent to which letting them work and send their kids to school is applied across ALL processing centres.
It’s been my opinion all along that the sudden decision (just after the UN approved seabed mining there & in other PIs inc Manus) of Abbott & Morrison to accept A Big Miner’s free round-flight to Nauru with a document which the president had only to sign for N to become a signatory to the UNHCR convention, had more to do with equipping N&M for Oz seabed mining interests that reinstating Howard’s sacred AS policy there.
If that’s the case, and the Revised ‘Malaysian Solution’s’ conditions do apply to all off-shore processing centres, then our & other seabed mining companies might have to pay dearly; not only in the cost of Oz-provided facilities, or just in wages paid to AS, but in the flow-on effect to the Islands’ indigenous workers as well.
If the Opposition, Big Mining & the MSM haven’t yet worked out that there are now more seriously devious Parliamentary legal eagles in the HoR (in 2012 on PM Gillard’s front bench) than in the days when Evatt & Menzies strutted Old Parliament House’s halls, they’re even dumber and self-opinionated than I think they are.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:28 am
Good Morning
On Grech. Best thing to do is ignore. That will sink of its own weight.
Meanwhile the good news keeps coming despite no reporting of it by the MSM in a fair and balanced way
@TheKouk: The quite terrific economic news continued this week: steady wages growth; biz sentiment up; consumer sentiment down a bit but ok; stocks up
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:29 am
@chriskkenny: SMH today Godwin Grech on public sector accountability http://t.co/cInygJwn Tomorrow, Matthew Newton on chivalry.
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:33 am
You *seem* to have trouble keeping your story straight -
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:34 am
@aus_media: Snappers to go in new roster: NEWS Limited is expected to retrench 35 to 45 photographers nationally after it mo… http://t.co/YIUq5YQX
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:35 am
This week my local paper did an interview with retiring MP Harry Jenkins.
He made some interesting comments.
On JG
On TA
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:35 am
guytaur
Ignore it ? Certainly not. It will be the funniest thing I’ll read in today’s paper
by poroti on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:35 am
@abcnews: Missed Windsor’s attack on Abbott? Watch him unleash during Question Time today: http://t.co/A1Sf0yrV #QT
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:36 am
I think that article shows Grech is incapable of telling right from wrong, and is so illogical he couldn’t instruct his lawyer.
That article is perhaps a new low in public debate.
by Diogenes on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:38 am
What a nightmare to contemplate – The Rodent as GG, the Mad Monk at PM and the rest of us in chains and heading back to the 50s – and I mean the 1750s!
by Tricot on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:38 am
poroti
Well yeah it is a laugh. However I think more attention should be paid to Windsor. Keep it on their radar.
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:39 am
Dio,
I would have thought that article was evidence that he is still suffering.
by Space Kidette on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:39 am
Only got a few minutes:
Rosemour
Spur212
Oh go and have a good cry.
You will have something to really cry about soon
gone B 4 Xmas.
You read it here first and only by some of the geniuses here at PB
by Centre on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:40 am
@ABCReligion: I’ve discovered the punishment reserved for those at the lowest levels of hell: moderating online comments …
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:41 am
CanJoh Watch can report that he has taken a break from giving the workers a taste of his knout to……
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-treasurer-tim-nicholls-confirms-big-business-tax-hikes-in-gaming-levies-and-mining-royalties/comments-e6freoof-1226452193619
by poroti on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:42 am
@Reuters: Finland prepares for expected euro zone break up: report http://t.co/jzGjnIrJ
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:42 am
by lizzie on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:43 am
Rann gets the gig as British High Commissioner. Clearly people were waaaay of base saying he would be rewarded with Ambassador to Italy. They got the wrong country.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/another-job-for-the-boys-as-mike-rann-becomes-our-man-in-london/story-fn59niix-1226452174619
by Diogenes on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:44 am
SK
I agree. Grech still unwell. The disconnect and lack of self awareness is stark but I imagine he was mostly that way in the past.
To talk about the lack of an apolitical competent public service when he as a PS fabricated emails for political purposes and leaked like a sieve (AKA a “Rudd”) is mind blowing stuff
by gough1 on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:45 am
@TheHoopla: Our nation wants a third political party with teeth. We need someone like Tony Windsor to step up, says @madwixxy. http://t.co/I7KwOm7I
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:46 am
SK
More importantly, we’re still suffering! Has the man no sense of decency!
by Diogenes on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:46 am
If thats the criteria many criminals would not be in jail – all over the world.
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:48 am
Why did the mainstream media let Godwin Grech anywhere near their website or hard copy editions? What has a man, already guilty of attempting to bring down the government in concert with the Opposition, whether delusional and mentally ill or not, got to contribute to the public debate about anything, let alone Public Sector Accountability? Surely this is the media’s idea of a sick joke on the public? Or have they become just as delusional about reality as Grech?
by C@tmomma on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:48 am
Some legal person who seemed to know what he was talking about said very emphatically on 3AW this morning that Britain is bowing to “enormous pressure” from the US over the Assange matter. Clearly he believes the US is determined to get their hands on him, whatever it takes.
He also said that if Britain did not grant Assange safe passage, or even worse invaded the embassy to get him, they would be trashing 300 years of law and protocols and there would be enormous consequences world wide.
by Darn on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:51 am
ShowsOn:
I don’t recall anyone from The Greens saying it was worse. It’s just that the package was no better.
In a theoretical sense of course Australia retains control over Nauru and Manus detention circumstances whereas the overseeing body in Malaysia would be the Malaysian regime.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:53 am
I’d be interested in feedback on this article from anyone who knows something about these firms & how they are funded.
http://tinyurl.com/cohcxx8 (click google link)
by Leroy on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:53 am
I do not think that article is a sign of Grech being “unwell” . It is however the writing of a Liberal Party True Believer/Fanatic.
by poroti on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:54 am
This from a Fairfax Journalist
@strom_m: Can someone remind me why we care what Godwin Grech thinks. Anyone?
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:54 am
Dave
Most ‘criminals’ are not well. There are your sociopaths and psycopaths and plain nasties who virtually all have mental health ‘issues’ and at the lower end you have a cycle of drugs and mental health problems and/or low cognition (brain damage through drugs/low IQ) issues and criminality.
by gough1 on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:55 am
Hallelujah!
That is the most sensible comment on the issue of AS ever.
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:55 am
Poroti
Same thing.
by gough1 on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:55 am
It’s certainly blown the mind of someone at Fairfax. He currently has not one but two pieces on the Age webiste at the moment.
Have we officially gone beyond satire?
by Son of foro on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:56 am
Soon we may be saying the same thing about Tony Abbott.
by BK on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:56 am
Darn
As I said earlier, the UK should allow Assange safe passage to Ecuador. To do anything else, would be a big f up on their part.
Btw was anything said about what Australia could do?
by victoria on Aug 17, 2012 at 9:56 am