Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The police presence at the Ecuador Embassy is costing the British €50 000 a day.
That is an awful lot of money in Cameron’s Austere Britain to stop the safe passage to Ecuador of a popular figure with voters. The Mail is already onto this aspect.
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:10 pm
AT least Nelson had a go at seeing what real world truck drivers have to put up with every night.
by Joe6pack on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:11 pm
TTFB @ 6739
You are barking mad.
That just means abolishing any immigration policy and border controls whatsoever.
The outcome would be electoral oblivion and a quick reversal.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:11 pm
That’s fine, so long as they don’t spend any real money, ie, pounds sterling.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Yeah, they should just let him get to the airport, then some cops could arrest him as he tries to board the plane.
The government could also step in and ground the plane so it simply can’t leave.
If that doesn’t work, they could use one of their Tridents.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Actually there is, he is supposed to be on his honeymoon with the electorate.
by ruawake on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Shows
your hero supported Dolly in his all expenses paid holiday in Cyprus. Absolutely disgraceful IMHO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Downer
http://news.theage.com.au/national/smith-backs-downer-as-un-envoy-to-cyprus-20080602-2ks1.html
by sprocket_ on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:14 pm
As well as no understanding about aviation economics
by Joe6pack on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:15 pm
59-41 to the LNP is OK with me!
by Mod Lib on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:15 pm
@Colvinius: The hideous truth about Swedish prison conditions: http://t.co/ml5Vgzau
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Shows
your hero supported Dolly in his all expenses paid holiday in Cyprus. Absolutely disgraceful IMHO.
FFS! The U.N. offered him a job and the Australian Government wrote him a reference letter!
Just as the Howard government wrote an official reference for Gareth Evans when he tried to become Secretary General of the U.N.!
This is NOT THE SAME as the the Australian Government giving someone an Australian Government job! It was a UNITED NATIONS job!
Dolly Downer may be a smurfhead, but even he is capable of be magnanimous:
He (Downer) said Mr Rann was a well-connected person who would likely do a very good job in what is an extremely busy and demanding role.
“It’s not all Ascot and Wimbledon, there’s plenty to do in a very extensive relationship between the two countries,” he said.
My message to Mike Rann is “good luck, work hard, and I hope you enjoy it”.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/former-premier-mike-rann-to-become-australias-next-high-commissioner-to-london/story-e6frea83-1226452154821
Are you capable of being magnanimous too?
Or are you worse than Dolly Downer?
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:19 pm
I agree that supporting Downer for a UN job (in which, so far as I know, he has achieved absolutely zero) is not the same as appointing Nelson and Fischer to ambassadorships. I didn’t mind Fischer so much, since it was a sinecure, but I objected strongly to giving a dog like Nelson a serious job, just to balance Beazley’s appointment to Washington, a position for which he was clearly the best qualified person in Australia.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Shows
I would be quite a challenge to be worse than Dolly – AWB, Iraq war based on a lie, the thongs which batter…
Kevin Rudd should have said “Dolly is a failed Howard acolyte, idiot spawn of the Adelaide aristocracy, and an embarrassment to Australia” . But Rudd was too much the statesman.
Ask me about the job he gave Peter Costello.
by sprocket_ on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:27 pm
ShowsOn @ 6747
And some of those corrupt cops have been arrested!
Indonesians I know just hate corruption so if a Govt was seen as doing anything about it they would win popularity.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:27 pm
NX on News 24 tonight is about your internet privacy.
by guytaur on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:29 pm
OK, so thanks for confirming that you’re worse than Dolly Downer.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:29 pm
They all hate it, they all do it…
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Indonesians I know hate the corruption of others.
by ruawake on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:30 pm
So they each have one thing to be said in their favour then.
by William Bowe on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Sure, SBY has done a heap to stamp out corruption it is something he campaigned on for re-election.
But taking boats back will just attract attention to the fact that there is still a lot of corruption in law enforcement agencies.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Psephos
Why so much hatred for Nelson?
Struck me as a decent bloke when i meant him
by Joe6pack on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:33 pm
The truth will always rise to the top eventually.
by ruawake on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Oooh, a rare political comment from our Great Moderator!
William, did you see my earlier comment about the Lawries and the Darlings?
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Sprocket @ 6756
I didn’t know Stephen Smith was Showy’s hero.
Please tell us more.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:33 pm
I didn’t get to see Mal Fraser’s interview regarding his pursuit for a full and open inquiry into our involvement in the Iraq war.
Did any PBer’s happen to see it?
by Dee on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:35 pm
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/08/17/354241_tasmania-news.html
decided to back Labor plans to open the state’s power market to competition.
A Greens party room meeting this week decided to adopt most of the recommendations of the electricity supply expert panel, which handed down its report in March.
The decision will clear the way for new entrants into the state’s retail electricity market.
Based on prices and discounts offered interstate, competition is expected to cut between 5 and 10 per cent from household power bills — up to about $260 for a typical home.
The Labor Party is pushing the reforms but needs the support of the Greens to pass the supporting legislation because the Liberal Party is opposed.
After further briefings from the panel, Aurora, Transend and Hydro, the Greens are set to announce today they will support the reforms.
However, it is understood the minority party will remain opposed to the recommendation to sell the Tamar Valley power station.
The Electricity Supply Expert Panel recommended a complete restructure of the three Government-owned companies which generate, distribute and sell electricity in Tasmania.
Among the key reforms to pave the way for competition will be the break-up and sale of Aurora Energy’s retail business in three parcels to national retailers to encourage competition which will deliver a welcome pre-election war chest for the Government.
The Greens yesterday would not comment on their decision, although a source said the decision was made on the basis of delivering the lowest possible power prices and energy security for the state.
The State Government has already spent $37 million of the expected Hydro windfall from the carbon tax to keep a lid on power prices, which rose 10.5 per cent on July 1.
by my say on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:35 pm
I believe he is the only person to unite both the Greek an Cypriot sides in a unanimous vote of the Parliament of Cyprus.
They voted to condemn Alexander Downer.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:37 pm
She actually reminds me of Buzz Lightyear…
by Henry on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Basically Fraser thinks the parliament rather than the executive should decide if we go to war.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Psephos @ 6761
This is a wicked lie!
Dolly managed the near impossible by uniting the Greek and Turkish Cypriots in their desire to see the last of him.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Ooh, bad judgement on Stephen Smith’s part.
by Dee on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:38 pm
HOLY CRAP! The Greens supporting competition?
AMAZING!
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Probably Guess
David Donovan@davrosz
Next story up on IA is by my brother Matt, former Liberal Party candidate for Mawson in SA, dishing some dirt on some unsavoury people.
by Schnappi on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Probably Guess
David Donovan@davrosz
Next story up on IA is by my brother Matt, former Liberal Party candidate for Mawson in SA, dishing some dirt on some unsavoury people.
by Schnappi on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Nelson came from a strong Tasmanian Labor family and was a long-time ALP member. When he was President of the AMA, he went to the Tasmanian ALP and said “I’m ready to go into politics now, give me Denison please.” They said, “Duncan Kerr has Denison, why don’t you run against a Liberal in Bass or Braddon?” And he said, “I want a safe seat, I want Denison.” And they said, “You can’t have Denison.” So he said, “You’ll be sorry”, and three years later he popped as Liberal candidate for Bradfield, one of the safest Liberal seats in Australia. He is an unprincipled treacherous dog. And his record as Oppos leader was one of shameless dishonest opportunism, waving tins of dig food around when his own government had not increased the age pension for 11 years. His record as a politician was disgraceful from beginning to end.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Good Canadian DOCO on the SeweRoo empire.
http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episode/scandal-inside-the-murdoch-empire.html
by Gaffhook on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Dee
It is not just Mal. More significant is the involvment of Paul Barratt a former defence secretary and former boss cocky of the ADF General Peter Gration. Their complaint is that policy led intelligence. Waay bad.
by poroti on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Hi Joe6pk,
Any other anecdotes on other topics?
by Space Kidette on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:42 pm
ShowsOn @ 6778
With the exception of if there was a sudden attack on the nation, I agree.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:44 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-17/climate-change-sees-tropical-fish-head-south/4203830?section=tas
The CSIRO is warning climate change is having a big impact on the country’s oceans, with tropical fish turning up as far south as Tasmania.
A major report on oceans and climate change, released today, says the damage under the sea is much clearer than when it released its last report on the subject three years ago.
As well as causing a southern migration, climate change is causing a decline in some temperate fish stocks and ocean acidification is beginning to affect shellfish.
The water at Hobart’s Taroona Beach is chillier than what most Australians are used to, but increasingly it is home to northern visitors of the finned variety.
Gretta Pecl runs a website called Redmap, and says that divers and fishers are increasingly documenting a range of sea creatures not normally seen in Tasmanian waters.
“The southerly shift in distribution that we’ve seen in species has been from a range of species, across the board,” she said.
“So some are bony fish, sharks and rays, octopus, lobsters, a whole range of species that are either showing signs of starting to move into Tasmanian waters, or showing up more frequently, and we’re yet to establish exactly what that might mean.”
Dr Pecl works for the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies and the amateu
by my say on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Thanks Psephos, I’ve attended to the Lawrie matter by deleting the reference altogether.
by William Bowe on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Was Smith inviting downer to make a goose out of himself ? Setting an incompetent up for a fall ?
Worked a treat whether intended or not.
Dolly for SA LOTO anyone?
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:46 pm
After his party just got flogged in the election and no one else had the guts to step up to be leader I think he did a job he knew was going to go nowhere.
Rudd shouldn’t have given him a plum job but he is better than the current leader of the libs.
by Joe6pack on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Sorry, William, it was a good line. You are right 99% of the time.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:47 pm
WOAH! Clearly you don’t drive a Tarago with a wheelchair in the back!
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Psephos @ 6784
Thank you for that summary of the nicer aspects of Brendan Nelson.
Can we now have the negative side? Come on, we are grown up enough for it.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:48 pm
This dry ginger ale is so dry it is making me thirsty.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Compare his record to Beazley’s in similar circumstances. No comparison.
And in fact Turnbull did step up, and would have won the ballot except for some strange circumstance I’ve now forgotten.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:49 pm
WTF? Their was an automatic leadership ballot which Nelson won against Turnbull.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Got our 1st power bill since solar-13
by Joe6pack on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:50 pm