Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
t opportunism, waving tins of dig food around when his own government had not increased the age pension for 11 years
Phes. Posted.
I think i will post that every day.
Let. Them. Eat cake
by my say on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:51 pm
I have no idea what that means, but I’ll take it as a compliment.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:52 pm
ShowsOn @ 6798
Why should we believe anything you say when you don’t know the proper usage of ‘their’ and ‘there’?
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Yes agree with an emergency clause. Also all direct relatives of military age of those voting for war should be the first trained and deployed subject to operational considerations placed outside the reaches of the politicians.
No exceptions. Even for the insane from the tories. They go too.
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Daily Telegraph doing Gillard’s job for her: Manus Island is a dump.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/manus-island-detention-centre-run-down-termite-infested/story-e6freuy9-1226452592708
Nothing there except mosquitoes.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Meguire Bob back a while:
As it happens the predictive record of polls a year out for 2nd term governments specifically is bad:
Menzies 54- way behind a year out, won
Whitlam 75 – way behind a year out, sacked
Fraser 83 – way behind a year out, won
Hawke 87 – ahead a year out, won
Howard 01 – behind a year out, won
But the second-term governments that won from behind a year out were all Liberal. (I think Chifley would have been ahead a year out of the 1946 election which he won; he was well ahead seven months out.)
For all governments 1949-present:
ahead a year out: 9 wins 0 losses (Labor 4 wins Coalition 5 wins) – or perhaps it would be better to call 2010 a draw
more or less level a year out: 6 wins 2 losses (Labor 1 win 1 loss Coalition 5 wins 1 loss)
behind a year out: 5 wins 4 losses* (Labor 1 win 2 losses* Coalition 4 wins 2 losses).
(* losses includes Whitlam (sacked))
Of those showing the government ahead or behind that’s 13 correct 5 incorrect for all governments (counting the sacking as a loss), including 6 correct 1 incorrect for Labor. And of the governments that won from behind a year out, only Menzies in 1954 was in quite this much trouble.
Do you still feel lucky?
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Compare his record to Beazley’s in similar circumstances
Both decent people not suited to being leaders.
Ever sat down and and had a conservation with Nelson?
Calling him a dog may be a bit harsh
by Joe6pack on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:55 pm
I think one of Nelson’s votes was from someone who had in fact lost their seat. If they had waited a week Turnbull would have won.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:55 pm
when his own government had not increased the age pension for 11 years Phes. Posted.PHESPOSTED
I think i will post that every da
NOT to increase the pension for 11years
Its. Very unbeleivable,
that. Should. Be. Enough to make any one with a. Brain
Never vote for them.
Let. Them. Eat cake.
by my say on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Typo: should be Fraser 80 (not 83) – way behind a year out, won.
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Brendan Nelson:
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F2008-05-27%2F0022%22
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Wasn’t it the CLP guy who had punched someone?
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Sadly I suspect a majority of Australians feel that is appropriate accommodation for asylum seekers who arrive in Australian waters.
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:01 pm
I went there about 30 years ago for about a week when working in PNG.
Nice people. Bloody hot and very humid. Not much infrastructure, but abundance of seafood etc. Basically subsistence existence with people from Manus working throughout PNG sending money home to family to boost things a bit.
It didn’t have much of a future even back then, but Australian money etc will be a huge boost to them, until the problems arise as they always do.
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Well they have a lot in common with the gillard cultists on PB then. lol
by Thomas. Paine. on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Julian has three choices.
1. Front up and face the charges.
2. Spend the rest of his life in the embassy.
3. Sneak out the back door and spend the rest of his life being hunted by MI5 and the CIA who will attempt to lift him from which ever country he is in.
Simple.
by rummel on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Ahh.
But Kina/ TP – you have first class honours in hate yourself as you demonstrate here regularly, yet you run away when challenged.
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Shows On @ 6636,
Are you trying to tell me that the Tooth Fairy doesn’t exist?
Oh noes
by fiona on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:17 pm
6746
It would stop the boats. It would result in more coming here but safely. The Government and the Immigration bureaucrats are against it but it would stop the boats. I genuinely support this measure. I am in the minority on this but that does not make my view nonsense.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Typical Nelson demagoguery. Those were the very people he had happily screwed over with WorkChoices. A truly contemptible man, worse than Abbott IMHO.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:19 pm
The Morgan state poll seems to be filled with errors – for example, there are repeated references:
but there wasn’t a Morgan poll in July 2012 (indeed, it would be silly for that to be used as a comparison, as these are figures devolved from separate polls in July and August).
If you do look at the JUNE 2012 polling:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/state-polls.cfm
there’s quite a few errors in comparison – for example, the lead for the LNP in Victoria has gone UP from June, not down.
So shonky reporting, from polls with a wide margin of error, and taken over a two month period – may indicate a trend, at best.
by zoomster on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:22 pm
TTFAB @ 6818
Yes, in unlimited numbers.
You truly are barking mad.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:26 pm
6752
The let them on planes policy would still mean the deportation of people who have no visa and do not seek refugee status as well as those whose applications fail.
I do personally support an end to migration obstruction (with the possible exception of professionals with training paid for by poor nations government where they have a shortage of those professionals). I do not believe in standing between poor people and jobs to get them out of poverty. It may well not lead to political inhalation because it could be done at the start of the term and enough people come, and use the voting rights that would also be given to them, to counterbalance the opposition from many current regime beneficiaries.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Psephos,
A question if you do not mind.
If the PM had tried to introduce the Nauru /PNG processing recommendations now in place two years ago when she first became PM would the caucus left have been as “compliant ” as it is now or would it have caused huge problems within the party ?
I was just thinking perhaps the timing was just not right two years and the PM was just not prepared to have instability and internal bickering so soon after becoming PM.
I have no real idea but interested in your take on the proposition.
Cheers.
by Doyley on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Psephos
Psephos claiming Psephos’ opinion is humble
by poroti on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Manus can’t supply much in the way of supplies for the AS camps but they should get a reasonable amount of employment out of it and hopefully Australia will do its untmost to use local businesses where possible and foster business development associated with the AS camps.
The PNG National Governments and the Manus Provbincial Governments will both expect development assistance above and beyond current levels.
On example how this worked in the past was that for many many years, Australian Military Engineers (RAE) were stationed in Mendi in the southern Highlands of PNG – think sort of south-west of Mt Hagen and they basically performed the role of the provincial Pubic Works department as well as providing a shot in the arm of the local economy.
They were a real success story.
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:30 pm
6757
The essentially single use boats with singe use crews are around $5,000 $10,000. Cheap flights (especially Indonesia and Malaysia) from many places are cheaper than that.
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/you-heard-were-stopping-the-boats-you-heard-wrong/335/
by Tom the first and best on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Psephos @ 6672,
So good that it was worth repeating in full. Why more people can’t get their heads around this little calculation I just don’t understand.
(That said, it would be an extraordinary election to have such a result replicated in so many seats – yet another little fact that so many just don’t seem to be able to get through their skulls.)
by fiona on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Good evening all.
rummel:
Waleed Aly interviewed a former British intelligence officer the other night to go through exactly what were Assange’s options in getting out of the embassy. He offered the following tongue-in-cheek:
- A diplomatic pouch, although under British law officials can order the pouch to be returned to its place of origin, so no help to Assange there.
- Arrange for 100 or so people disguised to all look alike to enter the embassy. Disguise Assange similarly and smuggle him out when they all leave en masse. Except the embassy is being watched, and the people might very well be prevented from entering the embassy in the first place.
- Movies style 1: hire several limos, use a decoy limo with an Assange look-a-like to take police on a ride. Meanwhile the real Assange is ferried to the airport and loaded onto a private jet owned by the Ecuador govt. Although Customs clearance would be a problem.
- Movies style 2: as above, but drive into an aircraft carrier owned by the Ecuador govt. Although attempts by Ecuador to land such an aircraft anywhere in the UK given the events of the last few weeks would be unrealistic.
- Hold the mother of all parties at the embassy with as much food and drink as staff can muster up, and then don’t clean up for a week. Put all the food scraps into a wheelie bin and let them fester for a further week until it stinks to high heaven. Place Assange into the wheelie bin, with the expectation that nobody would want to go near it because of the stink, and wheel Assange out and away. Although given the high stakes comments from the Brits, even a stinky wheelie bin would be viewed as suspect and intervened.
- Plastic surgery to physically alter Assange’s appearance.
In short it seems Assange is stuck in the embassy for a while.
by confessions on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:32 pm
6821
Far less than 1% of the worlds population are refugees. That is a big limitation. If it was the policy of the whole democratic world then things would even out.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:34 pm
I imagine that even the most anti boat people would be appalled by this terrible, disgusting alternative. Sure, drowning at sea is not preferable.
But, for god’s sake, what has this unholy alliance Howard Rudd Gillard produced?
Not to mention the people who are obliged to rectify this infested dung hole.
by crikey whitey on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Joe6Pack
incorrect; Malcolm Turnbull contested the ballot; Abbott had his name in the ring but withdraw it the day before the vote due to lack of numbers.
by zoomster on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:35 pm
confessions
We all know that this is how it will end
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96vuIXc-584
by poroti on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Mumble makes this point about federal elections all the time. Yet the very paper he writes for continues to amplify PV.
Much like the ABC continues to utilise the services of shills like Dennis Shanahan to comment on elections, when the broadcaster has its own widely respected election analyst in Antony Green.
It is inexplicable.
by confessions on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:36 pm
by rummel on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:37 pm
That’s a fair question. I agree it would have been more difficult to do two years ago. I argued at the time that when she became PM Gillard should have moved LEFT on climate (bring back the CPRS) and RIGHT on boats (no visas for boaties), and I know other Evil Labor Rightists argued the same thing. But there would have been stubborn opposition, and not just from the Left, and she chose instead to pursue the mirage of the “regional solution.” What has changed is, first, the drownings at sea, which have forced many to change their views on a lesser-or-greater-evil basis, and second, the realisation that Labor has no hope of re-election, or even a modest defeat, unless the boats are stopped. My local member and former employer, Michael Danby, for example, said in the House this week that he had been wrong to oppose offshore processing, and he is not a man who likes admitting error. He’s one of many who have changed their minds.
by Psephos on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:38 pm
It was costello who didn’t have the ticker to have a go.
Interesting he still hasn’t got a real job that wasn’t a political type “gift”.
If he had had the balls to give it a go, he could be very close to what he always wanted, always thought was HIS.
It must eat him up to see abbott soooo close
by dave on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:40 pm
poroti:
by confessions on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:40 pm
TTFAB @ 6822
Is that what you practice?
Those substances can do terrible things to you and already appear to have fried your brain.
by bemused on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:41 pm
A month ago, Roy Morgan published these poll results on “the most important public problems facing Australia”. This was a phone poll of 648 respondents over 14 conducted on July 10/11. If you look down the page on today’s Morgan poll, you will see charts of voting intention which feature an entry for July 10/11, with the qualification that “only 136 electors” were polled. Presumably this is the same poll, which also asked Victorian respondents over 18 about voting intention, and Morgan didn’t publish the results at the time (with good reason).
A less equivocal stuff-up is the line: “L-NP (53%, down 1% since a Morgan Poll in July 2012) cf. ALP (47%, up 1%).” Certainly it was 54-46 last time and is 53-47 this time, but last time it was 54-46 to Labor. The previous quote should read “L-NP (53%, up 7% since a Morgan Poll in July 2012) cf. ALP (47%, down 7%)”. Or more pertinently, you could argue that Morgan shouldn’t have published any of this crap in the first place.
by William Bowe on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:43 pm
6838
Your eyes needs testing. I clearly wrote “annihilation” not inhalation and did not have an accident with spell check.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:44 pm
We’re taking care of friends’ kelpie cross for a few days.
Had her before. She’s obsessed by the cats, and sits staring at one of them all day. If the cat moves, she follows; when the cat settles, she sits and stares.
This time our young German Shepherd has decided that SHE is going to protect the cat. So she sits and stares at the kelpie.
If the kelpie flicks an ear wrongly, she gets jumped on.
But most of the time, what we have is a cat being stared at by a dog, who is being stared at by another dog.
I don’t know if my nerves can take it.
by zoomster on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:44 pm
Psephos,
Thanks for your response.
It was in fact the words of a number of caucus members who have now changed their minds that got me thinking.
Cheers.
by Doyley on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Have you tried feeding them?
by Mod Lib on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:47 pm
TTFB@6829,
How many of the ~80 million refugees, which equal this 1%(seems like a lot less when you disingenuously put it that way,huh?), do you propose Australia accepting in The Great Evening Out?
by C@tmomma on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:47 pm
ZOOMSTER’S FIRST INTERESTING POST OF THE YEAR!
CONGRATULATIONS!
by ShowsOn on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Thanks, William; I wondered if it was a reference to unpublished polling. But in that case, the point of comparison is in fact included in the result (which is a bit strange) – that is, they’re comparing the July/August figure with the July figure (rather than the August figure with the July figure).
by zoomster on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:49 pm
One thing I will always be grateful to Brendan Nelson for, when he was Defence Minister, was actually telling the truth in a public interview about the Neo Con motivation for the Iraq War/(Mis)Adventure. That being that they knew Iraq was floating on a sea of oil and the Septics wanted to un-nationalise it and secure it in the private hands of Texaco et al.
by C@tmomma on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:51 pm
Just re-reading the comments on here.
Wow does Assange really unhinge the Labor Rightists on here, in a sort of manic and childish way!!! He obviously can’t be all bad.
He has never seemed to me a very persuasive character but you don’t have to be much more than about 7 years old to distinguish between “liking” a person and considering judicial issues.
Such a capacity way beyond certain “adults” on here.
by swamprat on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Are Morgan back to publishing on a Friday? All this chopping and changing will just mean people dismiss his polls.
by confessions on Aug 17, 2012 at 8:56 pm