Northern Territory election live
8.38pm. Clare Martin confident about Stuart, for some reason. They are currently a handful of votes ahead.
8.32pm. By my count, the CLP will have four Aboriginal members compared with one for Labor, which will become either 5-1 or 4-2 depending on who wins Stuart. White Labor members in remote seats seem to have done better than Aboriginal ones.
8.21pm. The booth result I didn’t believe earlier, Maningrida in Arafura, looks like it was bona fide: 44.3% for the Greens, 31.3% for First Nations, 17.7% for Labor and 7.1% for the CLP, utterly unlike the remainder of the electorate.
8.19pm. Total vote result is 50.0% for the CLP, up 4.6%, and 37.0% for Labor, down 6.2%.
8.15pm. Clare Martin not conceding Arafura, but 108 sounds a pretty big lead to me with only 500 outstanding.
8.06pm. ABC computer has changed Stuart from “CLP gain” to “ALP ahead” – by 0.2%.
8.00pm. ABC computer calling Stuart for the CLP, but evidently it shouldn’t be.
7.55pm. Antony says it’s lineball in Stuart, which has been back and forth all evening.
7.50pm. In one hit, the ABC computer has called Arafura, Arnhem and Daly. By now there’s enough results in that I don’t see reason to doubt it. So even if Labor does win Sanderson, which I wouldn’t put money on, they can’t win from here.
7.43pm. So Labor behind in Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and CLP-held Sanderson, and needing to win three of the four to be a chance of governing with the support of Gerry Wood.
7.42pm. The second mobile booth from Arafura has a lot more votes than the first, but it’s slightly favoured the CLP. One batch of pre-polls has seen Labor scratch back 29 votes with four more to come, but it’s unlikely to be enough.
7.41pm. In fact, Arnhem looks very good for the CLP to me: only pre-polls and postals outstanding, and the CLP leads 1164-957.
7.40pm. The overall picture though is clear: Labor has held up well in Darwin, but is likely to lose office from a backlash among Aboriginal voters.
7.38pm. ABC computer no longer calling Arafura for the CLP, which is to say it’s no longer calling anything as a definitive gain one way or the other. However, there’s new worrying news for Labor in that the CLP is now said to be ahead in Arnhem.
7.37pm. Pre-polls, postals and one mobile booth still to report from Daly. CLP leads 1136-975.
7.36pm. I would suggest though the ABC computer is being generous to Labor in not calling Daly for the CLP.
7.35pm. The ABC computer is now only giving Arafura away, but as I pointed to earlier, it now has “CLP ahead” in Sanderson.
7.34pm. It was presumed Johnston would be the crucible, but I haven’t even had occasion to mention it yet. Labor has won big, with a double-digit swing.
7.33pm. The remote seat where Labor are in trouble other than Arafura, Stuart, is evidently doing a lot more business on mobile booths. However, the mobile booth that’s reported gave a big win to the CLP’s Bess Price.
7.31pm. The two Arafura booths I just mentioned are in: the raw CLP lead is now down to 5.8%, 972 to 769. Clare Martin talking of the CLP being 70-something votes ahead. That might be chased down on mobile votes, but the two outstanding mobile booths will have to produce a lot more votes than the first one for that to be possible.
7.30pm. First mobile booth in Arafura suggest these are dealing with tiny numbers of voters, so are unlikely to offer salvation for Labor. They will need big results in the two outstanding booths of Gunbalanya and Jabiru. Labor now also in big trouble in Stuart.
7.29pm. Still awaiting Anula 2PP result from Sanderson, but the primary vote result suggests the swing to Labor here is 4.9%, against a CLP margin of 5.2%.
7.22pm. Berry Springs booth now in from Daly and has swung solidly to the CLP, which looks like it sets the seal on their win then. So I’d say Labor definitely needs to win Sanderson and turn the tide in Arafura.
7.21pm. Jabiru booth in Arafura is a much better result for Dean Rioli than the first two that came in, and the 2PP hasn’t been added there. I’m not sure if this was factored in when they were just discussing this on the ABC.
7.19pm. Anula booth has now reported in Sanderson, recording a very slight swing to Labor: I expect that when two-party results are added it will bring the overall Labor swing down a little and move the swing back, just, into the CLP column.
7.16pm. ABC computer now has Nelson as retained by Gerry Wood.
7.15pm. As Antony keeps noting, little swing in Darwin, but Labor in big trouble in Daly, and possibly also in Arafura, either of which will lose Labor the election unless they can gain Sanderson.
7.14pm. Also one booth to go from Sanderson, which Labor badly needs to win. The booth is Anula: Labor got 45.6% there last time.
7.12pm. Berry Springs booth from Daly still outstanding: a lot will hinge on it. Labor got 52.7% 2PP there in 2008.
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Categories: NT Politics
Sky News exit poll shows majority of people think Labor will win the election #ntvotes
by The Finnigans on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:35 pm
And the reason they think that is that they’ve seen the campaign and they know how much better Henderson is than what’s-his-name, and that will also influence how they vote.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:39 pm
psephos:
Do you think the lack of Labor branding on signs was a good move?
Personally I always think this is a poor tactic, although I guess there is some kind of research that supports it. But then I also note that Bruce Hawker was involved in the campaign and I think he is far from a strategical genius.
by Fiz on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Any concrete results from the Sky News poll?
by William Bowe on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Does the NT really need 25 pollies for a 200,000 population and then you have the local councillors on top of that
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Page for Braiting is showing partial results from last time.
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:53 pm
When you have a popular leader and an unpopular party, you promote the leader and not the party. Everyone does it. I assume it works to some extent or they wouldn’t bother.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:53 pm
The alternative would be to put it back under direct Commonwealth rule, which means taxpayers in the rest of Australia would have to foot the bill for its administration. I’d rather the territories accepted responsibility for their own government.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
A smaller parliament would likely lack the critical mass for a functional parliament.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 25, 2012 at 6:57 pm
You only need 13 seats to gain government. If there was a smaller parliament you’d be able to hold cabinet meetings in a phone box.
by peppy7 on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:00 pm
ACT has 17 with a 370,000 population
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Norfolk Island has 2,300 people and a nine-member Parliament.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:06 pm
http://www.nt.gov.au/ntec/ seems to work well as a link because it gives a single page with a scroll of seats across the top rather than having to open 25 tabs.
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:10 pm
How is First Nations doing?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:19 pm
25 sounds reasonable to me.
I don’t really agree with limiting power to the few just to make some very minor spending cuts.
by Carey Moore on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Antony will be smashing things soon ……………
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Is anyone else having issues with ABC24′s live stream? My video stream is very “staccato” – it’s unwatchable. Just wondering if it is my network or a wider issue.
DR
by DRDR on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:27 pm
I have 2 x PCs trying to view it and both are having issues, BTW.
by DRDR on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Mine’s OK. I am on ADSL2+.
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Seems to be constantly buffering.
by DRDR on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:29 pm
The ABC shows 10 seats to the CLP and 3 to the ALP.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Oh dear, those swings look scary.
And the ABC computer is going trippy. It was predicting Labor gaining Terry Mills’s seat at one point.
by Von Kirsdarke on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:29 pm
I’m on ADSL2+ too….. must be my LAN. Thanks.
D
by DRDR on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:31 pm
The ABC website shows CLP has won 14 seats.
So they have won?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:31 pm
ABC computer calling seats prematurely willy-nilly like it always does.
Needs major reprogramming. It’s a joke.
The CLP might be winning, but not because the computer says so.
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm
ABC website formatting has gone whacky
by ajm on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:40 pm
ALP looks like it is getting smashed in the bush, status-quo in Darwin itself
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:47 pm
I’d say that the CLP will win but maybe only by a seat. However, they may be in a great position to increase their margin next election.
by Carey Moore on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Be feeling quietly confident about now if I was a CLP supporter.
by Just Me on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:51 pm
I hope they do a Newman.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm
The CLP has polled 55% in Wadeye, of all places. What do Indigenous voters think they will get from a CLP government?
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm
which seat will change hands???
by womble on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:54 pm
11&12
The ACT is a lot smaller and there have been attempts to increase the size. i believe that the main sticking point at the moment is that the Greens want 21 seats (3×7) and the ALP want 25 (5×5) and so nothing can pass and be sent to the Territories Minister for approval.
Norfolk Island is very small.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Something new? Could be desperation…
by Carey Moore on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Psephos,
Sometimes the only cure for CLP government is a good dose of CLP government.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Where’s the results from Nightcliff?
by Bird of paradox on Aug 25, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Labor looks to have lost Daly and not to have won Sanderson, so we are cooked. Plus we may still lose Arafura. So much for the much-touted “Rioli factor.”
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:01 pm
If the CLP can retain its foothold in the bush in the next election and move into Darwin, 2016 could be a landslide for them…
by Carey Moore on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Yes, Labor is behind in Stuart and will need First Nation preferences. It seems quite clear that it’s Indigenous voters who have put Labor out. I hope they enjoy the consequences.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:03 pm
ALP gain a 38% swing against Anderson, massive
lol
by drowner on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:06 pm
That is going to be an interesting juggling act to watch.
by Just Me on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Universally applying that swing, I project 25 seats for Labor!
by Carey Moore on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Sorry, cut the quote off…
by Just Me on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:08 pm
@ABCElections: .@AntonyGreenABC has called the election for the CLP. #ntvotes
by guytaur on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:09 pm
And if Labor can win all the seats next time, it will a landslide for them. Making predictions on election night about the next election is not a very useful exercise.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Where is Antony seeing two-party figures? Or are these ABC projections?
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Psephos
ABC is showing CLP 13 seats ALP 8 Other 1 in doubt 2
by guytaur on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:13 pm
-10.8 on primaries and +14.4 on 2pp? (From ABC site.) Something screwy’s going on there.
by Bird of paradox on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:13 pm
It wasn’t a prediction, it was pointing out a potential long-term consequence. Get off of your high horse.
by Carey Moore on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Sorry revision now showing CLP 14
by guytaur on Aug 25, 2012 at 8:14 pm