Northern Territory election live
8.38pm. Clare Martin confident about Stuart, for some reason. They are currently a handful of votes ahead.
8.32pm. By my count, the CLP will have four Aboriginal members compared with one for Labor, which will become either 5-1 or 4-2 depending on who wins Stuart. White Labor members in remote seats seem to have done better than Aboriginal ones.
8.21pm. The booth result I didn’t believe earlier, Maningrida in Arafura, looks like it was bona fide: 44.3% for the Greens, 31.3% for First Nations, 17.7% for Labor and 7.1% for the CLP, utterly unlike the remainder of the electorate.
8.19pm. Total vote result is 50.0% for the CLP, up 4.6%, and 37.0% for Labor, down 6.2%.
8.15pm. Clare Martin not conceding Arafura, but 108 sounds a pretty big lead to me with only 500 outstanding.
8.06pm. ABC computer has changed Stuart from “CLP gain” to “ALP ahead” – by 0.2%.
8.00pm. ABC computer calling Stuart for the CLP, but evidently it shouldn’t be.
7.55pm. Antony says it’s lineball in Stuart, which has been back and forth all evening.
7.50pm. In one hit, the ABC computer has called Arafura, Arnhem and Daly. By now there’s enough results in that I don’t see reason to doubt it. So even if Labor does win Sanderson, which I wouldn’t put money on, they can’t win from here.
7.43pm. So Labor behind in Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and CLP-held Sanderson, and needing to win three of the four to be a chance of governing with the support of Gerry Wood.
7.42pm. The second mobile booth from Arafura has a lot more votes than the first, but it’s slightly favoured the CLP. One batch of pre-polls has seen Labor scratch back 29 votes with four more to come, but it’s unlikely to be enough.
7.41pm. In fact, Arnhem looks very good for the CLP to me: only pre-polls and postals outstanding, and the CLP leads 1164-957.
7.40pm. The overall picture though is clear: Labor has held up well in Darwin, but is likely to lose office from a backlash among Aboriginal voters.
7.38pm. ABC computer no longer calling Arafura for the CLP, which is to say it’s no longer calling anything as a definitive gain one way or the other. However, there’s new worrying news for Labor in that the CLP is now said to be ahead in Arnhem.
7.37pm. Pre-polls, postals and one mobile booth still to report from Daly. CLP leads 1136-975.
7.36pm. I would suggest though the ABC computer is being generous to Labor in not calling Daly for the CLP.
7.35pm. The ABC computer is now only giving Arafura away, but as I pointed to earlier, it now has “CLP ahead” in Sanderson.
7.34pm. It was presumed Johnston would be the crucible, but I haven’t even had occasion to mention it yet. Labor has won big, with a double-digit swing.
7.33pm. The remote seat where Labor are in trouble other than Arafura, Stuart, is evidently doing a lot more business on mobile booths. However, the mobile booth that’s reported gave a big win to the CLP’s Bess Price.
7.31pm. The two Arafura booths I just mentioned are in: the raw CLP lead is now down to 5.8%, 972 to 769. Clare Martin talking of the CLP being 70-something votes ahead. That might be chased down on mobile votes, but the two outstanding mobile booths will have to produce a lot more votes than the first one for that to be possible.
7.30pm. First mobile booth in Arafura suggest these are dealing with tiny numbers of voters, so are unlikely to offer salvation for Labor. They will need big results in the two outstanding booths of Gunbalanya and Jabiru. Labor now also in big trouble in Stuart.
7.29pm. Still awaiting Anula 2PP result from Sanderson, but the primary vote result suggests the swing to Labor here is 4.9%, against a CLP margin of 5.2%.
7.22pm. Berry Springs booth now in from Daly and has swung solidly to the CLP, which looks like it sets the seal on their win then. So I’d say Labor definitely needs to win Sanderson and turn the tide in Arafura.
7.21pm. Jabiru booth in Arafura is a much better result for Dean Rioli than the first two that came in, and the 2PP hasn’t been added there. I’m not sure if this was factored in when they were just discussing this on the ABC.
7.19pm. Anula booth has now reported in Sanderson, recording a very slight swing to Labor: I expect that when two-party results are added it will bring the overall Labor swing down a little and move the swing back, just, into the CLP column.
7.16pm. ABC computer now has Nelson as retained by Gerry Wood.
7.15pm. As Antony keeps noting, little swing in Darwin, but Labor in big trouble in Daly, and possibly also in Arafura, either of which will lose Labor the election unless they can gain Sanderson.
7.14pm. Also one booth to go from Sanderson, which Labor badly needs to win. The booth is Anula: Labor got 45.6% there last time.
7.12pm. Berry Springs booth from Daly still outstanding: a lot will hinge on it. Labor got 52.7% 2PP there in 2008.
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Categories: NT Politics
Just by the way, Price also lost the vote decisively in the predominantly Warlpiri booths of Yuendumu (her birth place) and Lajamanu. Strange.
by Rod Hagen on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Anyway, now Hendo is free to run for Solomon, which I think he’d win in a canter.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Just by the way, if you are interested in booth by booth figures you can find them through http://notes.nt.gov.au/nteo/Electorl.nsf/NT2012/Results?OpenDocument
by Rod Hagen on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Were the CLP still running with a policy of scrapping open road speed limits?
Is that likely to be carried out?
by Tom the first and best on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Clearly deserves to be rewarded with a place in ClubFed for his stellar work of going from 19 seats to 8 in the space of 5 years
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Good tipping Psephos
I will stick with Peter Brent thanks as he actually called it right!
by stanny on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:50 pm
That would be a matter for the voters of Solomon to judge. Having met Natasha Griggs I’ve no doubt that she’s eminently beatable.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Psephology is an inexact science.
by Psephos on Aug 25, 2012 at 11:58 pm
One last thought before I go to the pub: this is a fair bit like the 1999 Vic election (with swapped parties, obviously). Kennett’s Libs held up fine in Melbourne, but lost their majority by losing a heap of regional seats. Three years later Melbourne came to the party and the Libs got wiped out for a decade, and some of those regional seats are still held by Labor even after that govt ended. If the CLP manage to hold the historically Labor seats they’ve just won, Labor could be looking at disaster in 2016.
Also, Terry Mills can go full bore Campbell Newman if he wants, sacking public servants. He doesn’t need to worry about retaining Darwin seats the way Newman needs to worry about the few dozen Brisbane seats he won. (There’s a strange observation… the CLP are about to form govt while holding a minority of Darwin seats. Has that ever happened before, for either party?)
by Bird of paradox on Aug 26, 2012 at 12:08 am
108
The Kennet government had a history of cutting public services and was seen as Melbourne centric by the rest of the state and the ALP was seen, during its time in office as being the public service fixers who were friendly to regional areas. If the CLP fix the things that upset people in the remote NT then they may well keep these votes but I would not bank on it due to their history and political tendencies. The Darwin seats may well fall to the CLP if there, is no massive sacking campaign.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 26, 2012 at 12:17 am
Peter did very well and did so going on very general principles rather than any attempt to crystal-ball individual seats on the basis of extremely limited data and noises on the ground.
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 26, 2012 at 2:02 am
I thought Henderson’s concession speech was good if long. Mills’ victory speech, on the other hand … “we’re all in this together” ad nauseum … aargh!
by Kevin Bonham on Aug 26, 2012 at 2:05 am
Senior Public Servants above a $110k salary are in the CLP gun sights mostly to reduce government debt. Given this is 13% of the employed workforce we have a built in change in demographics likely for future By and full Territory elections if they head elsewhere post redundancy.
by AJinDarwin on Aug 26, 2012 at 1:51 pm