Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.
GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.
Also:
• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.
• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.
UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.
The trend is your friend.
And they say a week is a long time in politics…
There is a long way to go, a very long way, but the shift in the press gallery, and now in voter land, is as clear as I can remember. A discernible shift.
Burgey,
Any particular trend?
Careful here or Poss might insert a calculator.
Yep the gradual improvement continues, day by day, week by week. Every percentage point is hard fought and earned with blood sweat and tears. Good on the true believers for hanging in there.
so the trend is against Libs, and it is constant.
Its time the Libs started to woryy, and the P M started doing more of the same.
That is more of those long meet the press and stare them down, and ignore abbott, as Steve Bracks recommends
looks like my timing was out a little but i won’t bother repeating my post from the other thread
good result, just need Essential to follow suit now as well – there’s movement at the station
Come 48 – 52 it will be looking seriously interesting. Until at least then, keep focus.
ockerguy,
You are fan of Vidkun Quisling?
I said the other day that 54-46 for Nielsen would do me nicely. And so it is.
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The clock is ticking for
Hip hip hooray!
@whitehouse: We the Coders: Open-Sourcing @WethePeople, the White House’s Online Petitions System: http://t.co/Np2Upqiw
@PoliticalTicker: CNN/ORC Poll – August 22-23 – Candidate Characteristics – http://t.co/5OyIsb0n
What is really good about the narrowing (yes, I know it doesn’t predict the outcome of the 2013 election) is that that the media sound bites will need to change. They won’t be able to use the heir apparent line anymore.
Too true Rod Hagen.
Slow and steady.
Rod,
The four point differential seems to be the point d’appui. Any further thoughts?
William?
@GhostWhoVotes: @Colvinius @samanthamaiden After ‘utegate’ Turnbull went Approve -19 Disapprove +21 in #Newspoll. #auspol
Space Kidette – naive to think that leadershit talk is gone for Gillard. There will be a time when it returns. Labor just need to be unified and have positive policy to discuss.
guytaur
You posted this on the other thread
Really Latika. You have been wondering?
Meanwhile in the UK.
@GdnPolitics: George Osborne: the Tory pin-up in tatters as ‘no pain, no gain’ austerity backfires http://t.co/KpHXL1rP
glory,
You just cornered non sequiturs.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-goes-for-abbott-on-carbon-tax-20120826-24u7d.html
gloryconsequence,
I’m not talking about leadershit. I am talking about the endless repetitive message media send to voters – that Abbott will be King.
The uncertainty means that they will not be able to say it. Which is step 1 in any meaningful turnaround.
victori,
It seems Latika is a slow learner, “a v e r y s l o w” learner.
victoria – I’m going to nickname Latika “Essential”. Always one step behind everyone else.
victoria
Your point is exactly why I posted that. PB first again unless beaten by internal Labor strategic thinkers.
victoria,
Quick on the uptake is our media.
Seems as though Bourke is trying to deflect the blame from Abbott to Newman – she’d be on the money if she came to the conclusion that the lib drop is due to a bit of both.
glory,
Your middle name is Obfuscation?
Ducky
Latika’s job is to repeat the political news. She has only come to the realisation that cando could be Labor’s asset because she has had polls shoved in front of her. Slow learner indeed!
SK – sorry for the misunderstanding, and youre correct
gc
Touche’
Little black duck – touche!
gloryconsequence,
no problem. I didn’t fully explain myself.
You know media has been failing when this is retweeted by Dr Karl.
Sorry hit post early. This goes with 34
@mikjeffo: @DoctorKarl @coatesy204 @cambuntu @pschofie You can have your own opinions, but you can’t have your own facts…
Night bludgers
victoria,
LatikaM is on the ABC as a “political reporter” and has hosted Capital Hill.
Por eso, she has zero leeway.
Before i go
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Night Victoria
Better week of media coverage to look forward to I expect
For no particular reason…
http://duderocket.com/content/00907-australias-answer-doctor-who-monsters
victoria,
There will still be white cliffs …
Sleep tight!
Leroy,
Are you trying an unleashing on PB?
The shift in the polls has been coming for a while. One sensed it was on as far back as early July, when the Libs were just a bit too cute with their blocking of the Malaysian solution.
From talking to the swinging voters I know, I got the sense of a growing impatience with the transparent phoniness of the Coalition tactics: the sloganeering, the relentless negativity, the smearing of Thomson, Slipper and Gillard, the policy position of convenience on boat people. They still don’t much like Gillard, but they like being plated for fools even less.
Realistically, the Libs are going to need to change tack. Start talking policy, god forbid. If they haven’t got any to hand, they can trty to fake it!!
Anthony Mason remembers it differently from Kerr. Says he told him to warn Whitlam first.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/it-was-unfolding-like-a-greek-tragedy-20120826-24ubh.html
William,
And, in front of a jury, how who their arguments go?
Consider yourself empanneled.
meher
I think Abbott was trying to switch to policy with his Ten Point Plan he outlined at the Tas Lib Confest.
Did not pass PB test.
I will be interested in what davidwh, rummel and ML have to say about that performance.