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Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

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  • 1
    spur212
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

    Thanks William

    Have you got the PDF yet?

  • 2
    Lynchpin
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:20 pm | Permalink

    The monthly personal ratings measures have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time.

    Fantastic news.

    Boerwar, it is in the national interest for Labor to go hard on Abbott about his past and his suitability to be PM.

  • 3
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    Not yet, Spur.

  • 4
    Lynchpin
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    primary votes of 34% for Labor

    Just 4 more % points needed.

  • 5
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

    Interesting movement in the PM and LOTO’s relative positions.

  • 6
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

    Basically that is a very good report for Labor providing people can generally forgive the PM for the CarbonPorkie. It’s a matter of trust and the PM’s saviour will likely be that people trust the LOTO even less than the PM.

  • 7
    bemused
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

    Repeated from previous thread.
    Victoria @ 2155

    Low and behold a few minutes later, police arrived in police cars and ordered everyone off the bridge. Guns drawn etc, there was this guy on the bridge they were zoning in on, and a lady who had arrived with the police started pleading with this man. Next thing you see is the man jump off the bridge. I could not believe what I was watching. It was like a scene from a movie. Could never Reconcile that incident in my mind.

    I see.

    So the cops plan was to shoot him to stop him jumping off the bridge?

    Well that’s how it often works in Victoria.

  • 8
    trawler
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin @ 4

    Just 4 more % points needed.

    If the Greens go off a cliff and do end up with under 10% of PV as the polls are now suggesting, wouldn’t Labor require a higher PV than 38%?

  • 9
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    Probably more like 40% Trawler if the Green votes comes in at under 10%.

  • 10
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    Kate Ellis ‏@KateEllisMP

    Am so incredibly saddened to learn the news of the death of a Port AFL player. my thoughts with family, friends and all at the the club

  • 11
    victoria
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    The police did not fire any shots, but the man jumped into the river, and I have no idea to this day, of the man’s fate

  • 12
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if they can elect Kate leader of federal Labor? It would make my decision much easier.

  • 13
    Lynchpin
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    Trawler, yes, you are correct.

  • 14
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    What the essential report shows that th need to stop politics of personality and shift the discussion to policy only.

  • 15
    Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    David WH from last thread

    Mick I think you are just manipulating the different circumstances to justify one side doing something you would criticise the other side for doing. Having said that the government, and Gillard personally, has had plenty directed her way in the past two years so Abbott can hardly complain if a bit comes back to bite him.

    But please don’t try to differentiate the issues on equity grounds. They are both old issues which were only raised now for political point scoring reasons.

    Not really, there is absolutely no excuse for violent and intimidatory behaviour, no equivalence can be made on this.

  • 16
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    @davidwh/12

    Another Female PM?

    The media and Coalition would say you got to be joking! They would have a fued.

  • 17
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Afternoon all

    I agree with Boerwar and think the government must move beyond the Opposition and ignore them. Questions about what the Opposition says should be brushed and treated as irrelevant. Policy Policy policy. One party talking the nation up… the other talking it down.

  • 18
    BH
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    Labor has to pick up the disaffected Green vote and Others.

    SK – There were lots of postals and prepolls this time around so hopefully the result will be clear in a couple of days. The vote held at our booth due, of course, to my beeeuwtifulll smile. 99% sure at the moment but fingers, toes & eyes are crossed – I look a right mess :)

  • 19
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    Mick I agree on that up to a point however we are still dealing with incidents in the distant past and we can only assume what may or may not have actually happened. It’s probably not something our political leaders and media should be focused on given all the real issues we are dealing with in 2012.

  • 20
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    L
    How a net approval rating of minus 19% is ‘fantastic news’ is beyond me. I suggest that approval ratings for Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott, of 35% and 32%, respectively, are terrible. The MAD approach to politics might gainfully be changed.

    Your thesis appears to be that in order to retain Government, Labor has to kick Mr Abbott to death. Perhaps focusing on the dozens of policies in which the Labor Government is clearly leader would be be more effective?

  • 21
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord I would vote for Kate but for all the wrong reasons :)

  • 22
    Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    David WH

    Mick I agree on that up to a point however we are still dealing with incidents in the distant past and we can only assume what may or may not have actually happened.

    It doesn’t matter how long ago the incident was alleged to have happened. It goes to the centre of the fact that Abbott has an apparent problem with conflict resolution, as well as with managing his anger.
    Don’t know about you, but I expect our political leaders to show a lot more self-restraint and to conduct themselves with a lot more grace.

  • 23
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    In NSW the police have been known to shout “tazer, tazer, tazer” and then shoot some one.
    If that is not tragic enough the lying by the police to explain the incident shows continuing systemic problems in the force.

  • 24
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

    You don’t have to convince me Abbott is not fit to be PM Mick but either it is fine to raise alleged old transgressions about politicians or it’s not. I don’t think you can pick and choose which unproven transgressions should be covered by the media and which shouldn’t.

  • 25
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

    If the Greens go off a cliff and do end up with under 10% of PV as the polls are now suggesting, wouldn’t Labor require a higher PV than 38%?

    Winning voters back from the Greens is ‘nice’ but very much a lower priority – it’s gaining votes from the Coalition that’s needed.

  • 26
    Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink

    Shocking news about the Port Player.
    Hopefully, if anything good can come out of this, it might cause a few of his colleagues to tone down their off field antics a tad.

  • 27
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    Our medal count.
    5th place, Australia
    Gold 32 Silver 23 Bronze 30 Total 85

    Plus highest number of gold medals in the Games goes to Australia’s Jacqueline Freney with 8 golds.

    Where are the big headines and front page pictures and reports splashed all over the MSM?

    Scumbags and pondslime.

    And missing the boat again. ABC 2 had a winner with their broadcast of the Paralympics.
    h­ttp://www.london2012.com/paralympics/medals/

  • 28
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    BH,

    Did you sort out the anti-nbn loudmouth?

  • 29
    Schnappi
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Dodgy morrison.

    Marian Rumens‏@mrumens

    STATEMENT ON OPPOSITION’S NAURU COSTINGS – Media Releases – Chris Bowen Minister for Immigration and Citizenship http://www.chrisbowen.net/media-centre/media-releases.do?newsId=5487#.UE1jCK8YJaI.twitter

  • 30
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Ctar yes because in effect for every vote that Labor pulls back from the Greens it only improves their overall position by 0.2 of a vote. They will need to pull votes from the Libs to get in a winning position which means they have to be careful not to forget who the real enemy is.

  • 31
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    I agree that if Abbott misled parliament then Labor should pursue that. But they need to be careful to keep the focus on the serious principle of misleading parliament.

  • 32
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

    There is a campaign in the Philippines to prevent politicians advertising themselves on billboards and tarpaulins. I am not sure about the rationale.

  • 33
    Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

    David WH

    You don’t have to convince me Abbott is not fit to be PM Mick but either it is fine to raise alleged old transgressions about politicians or it’s not. I don’t think you can pick and choose which unproven transgressions should be covered by the media and which shouldn’t.

    Depends on the Transgression.
    Some Polly who got sprung writting “punk snot ded” on a wall back when they were a callow youth, for instance, is very very different to a polly who as a “youth”, punched out someone in the pubs car park, because they were given a sideways glance.

  • 34
    Lynchpin
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

    BW

    The trend for Gillard is up, and that is what is fantastic news to me.

    Yes, I want Abbott gone. He is dangerous. I think the ALP plays far too nicely in the sand pit. You can do both policy and attack dog, of course. I suspect Abbott is now well and truly under the microscope at the moment – strike while the iron’s hot, I say.

  • 35
    bemused
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

    victoria @ 11

    bemused

    The police did not fire any shots, but the man jumped into the river, and I have no idea to this day, of the man’s fate

    Why on earth did they have guns drawn?

    Is it good for a suicidal man to be faced by police with guns drawn?

  • 36
    Centre
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    Preferred PM: Gillard 40, Abbott 37.

    Approval; Gillard 35, Abbott 32.

    Disapproval: Gillard 54, Abbott 55.

    Labor primary 34%. Yes, as Lynchpin has suggested, Labor only needs to add another 4%.

    But what’s the hurry, there is still another full regular season of Rugby League and AFL to go before the next election.

    What we do know is this:

    Tony Abbott is far too unpopular to change the government.

    NO WAY!

  • 37
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    ‘pondslime’ is a good thing, IMHO.

  • 38
    Schnappi
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    Puff

    And missing the boat again. ABC 2 had a winner with their broadcast of the Paralympics.

    Probably main reason MSM is shy about giving credit where it is due.

  • 39
    victoria
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    I dont know if the man was suicidal or wanted for a crime

  • 40
    bemused
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    OC @ 23

    In NSW the police have been known to shout “tazer, tazer, tazer” and then shoot some one.
    If that is not tragic enough the lying by the police to explain the incident shows continuing systemic problems in the force.

    I have followed that story and it is a shocker.
    Heads should roll.

  • 41
    Centre
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    The carbon price is still unpopular among voters I see, the exact opposite situation of when the original agreement was reached for the CPRS.

    Thank the Greens, who are down again.

    Peak Pewny R.I.P.

  • 42
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    Re Police

    I was speaking to a mate yesterday (policeman) who had been out late Saturday night – early Sunday morning dealing with continuous violence and brawls involving patrons of clubs. From his account I have no doubt we expect too much of law enforcement men and women and I doubt most of us would have the self restraint expected when confronted by threat on a continuous basis.

  • 43
    trawler
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    Centre @ 36

    Tony Abbott is far too unpopular to change the government.

    NO WAY!

    Perhaps the Coalition should pull an LNP and get Costello preselected. If he turns it down maybe Downer?

    Howard would have plenty of spare time these days too.

  • 44
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    davidwh:

    Basically that is a very good report for Labor providing people can generally forgive the PM for the CarbonPorkie.

    For the umpteenth time …

    There was no “porkie” (or lie or even a breach of promise relating to carbon pricing). This is just a sneaky way of re-running the LNP meme as if it is not established wisdom even here.

    There is no carbon tax. There never was a carbon tax, even by the Abbott definition (of October 2009). Therefore, there was no broken promise still less a lie. It was unwise of Gillard not to make this point up front and not simply to affirm that she was indeed going to honour her commitment to the policy of both parties in 2007 and the ALP at the last election to explicitly price carbon using a cap and trade scheme like the CPRS, but her lack of acumen doesn’t change the nature of the carbon pricing mechanism that ensued from the MPCCC.

  • 45
    Schnappi
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    HoR on 24 senate on 1

  • 46
    Schnappi
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    HoR on 24 senate on 1

  • 47
    bemused
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    CTar1 @ 25

    Winning voters back from the Greens is ‘nice’ but very much a lower priority – it’s gaining votes from the Coalition that’s needed.

    As previously discussed here ad nauseum, as Labor dissociates itself from the loons, it will attract votes from people who are parked elsewhere because they don’t like Labor appearing to be dancing to the Greens tune.

  • 48
    rosemour
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    Finally ABC programing returns to normal.
    Although I admit I was disappointed yet again that wheelchair diving was left off the aquatic program.

  • 49
    rosemour
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    You’re right Fran.
    So WHY HASN’T THE FECKING GOVERNMENT EXPLAINED IT TO THE ELECTORATE.

  • 50
    Centre
    Posted Monday, September 10, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    Trawler

    They should go with Mesma, she is strong and at least consistent. Besides most important of all, some Bludgers have backed her :twisted:

    *gotta go*

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