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Newspoll: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland

The first Queensland state Newspoll since the election delivers remarkably strong figures for Campbell Newman’s government, although the three-month survey period raises questions about their currency.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has published its first result of state voting intention in Queensland since the election. This has the LNP with a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 48% for the LNP, 30% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Remarkably, this concurs in every respect with Galaxy poll published a month ago, and represents only a modest gain for Labor off an election result of 62.8-37.2, with the LNP’s primary vote only slightly lower than an election result of 49.8%. The Labor vote is also higher than a 26.7% result at the election, with the slack presumably coming off Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the election but for which no result from Newspoll is yet available (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates the poll has it at an enormously implausible 1%). The poll has the Greens at 9%, compared with 7.4% at the election.

The commonality between Newspoll and Galaxy ends at Campbell Newman’s personal ratings: Newspoll has his approval at 47% and his disapproval at 38%, which compares with 44% and 49% from Galaxy. The numbers are in fact slightly better for Newman than the 47% and 40% he recorded in the final pre-election Newspoll. Annastacia Palaszczuk has done correspondingly worse out of Newspoll, with 29% approval and 30% disapproval compared with 36% and 28% from Galaxy. Newman leads Palaszczuk 55-21 as preferred premier.

A note of qualification should be added that this poll is presumably derived from surveying conducted over a three-month period from July to September, during which much occurred in Queensland politics. Were a short-range phone poll such as Galaxy’s to be conducted, it might well produce a different and more current result.

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  • 1
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    with the LNP’s primary vote in fact solidly higher than an election results of 44.2%.

    …wasn’t it 49.65%?

  • 2
    Leroy
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4757/

    QUEENSLAND ELECTION – MORGAN POLL MOST ACCURATE
    PREDICTING MASSIVE SWING TO LNP AND RESULTS ACROSS ALL PARTIES

    Finding No. 4757 - Analysis is of Pre-Queensland Election Polls only.: April 02, 2012

    has the actual results

    The LNP won Government by securing 49.8% of the State-wide primary vote.

  • 3
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Surprisingly I think William is wrong. I am pretty certain the LNP primary vote at the election was just shy of 50%.

  • 4
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    It’s still a surprisingly good result for the LNP given the policy implementation and some really poor communication by Newman. Not to mention the really stupid statements like comparing QLD to Spain etc.

  • 5
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    William, the election results that you have compared Newspoll with are actually from ReachTel’s August and September QLD polls.

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/lnp-support-unchanged-after-difficult-month

    Here are the official results:

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/results/summary.html

  • 6
    Leroy
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    See for prior QLD polls over same quarter
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?cat=531

    Reachtel did three polls over this quarter, showing early rise, then a fall.

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/lnp-support-unchanged-after-difficult-month

  • 7
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Leroy Ch7 advised they will continue to announce monthly Reach Tel polls for QLD so it looks like we will have plenty of polls up here to track NewmanInc.

  • 8
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    According to Newspoll Katter’s Australian Party have only 1 percent of the vote. They got 11.53% at the election.

  • 9
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    That’s hard to believe Ghost.

  • 10
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    I did think that seemed too low. Corrected.

  • 11
    ifonly
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 5:14 am | Permalink

    I suspect this is a case of the vocal minority making headlines (the public servants and the Newman critics) and the simple fact that no one is offering an alternative. There needs to be a credible alternative eg don’t cut the jobs, increase mining taxes or don’t cut the jobs, delay xxx.

    We have public servants in NSW and QLD who are in their 30′s who have spent almost all their working life under Labor and I don’t think they know how to mount an effective campaign to win the voters.

  • 12
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 6:54 am | Permalink

    That Katter’s Australian Party result seems unbelievable. They got 9.5% on Reachtel on 14 Sept, and 7% on a Galaxy poll in August. Do Newspoll do their samples for these quarterly polls at the same time as tehy are polling national polls? Wouldn’t think that should affect the result though.

  • 13
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    Leroy
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 6:54 am | PERMALINK
    That Katter’s Australian Party result seems unbelievable.

    Hmmmm, it is a bit peculiar.

    Does anyone know how the KAP preferences flowed at the last election?

    …my impression was that KAP prefs went slightly to the LNP anyway, so if KAP supporters were under-represented that could have dampened the LNP TPP %.

  • 14
    Poliquant
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Mod Lib,

    The ECQ does not calculate individual parties preference flows like the AEC.

    I have estimated the following KAP & Others flow by deduction.

    LNP 26
    ALP 16
    Exh 52

  • 15
    Poliquant
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    Sorry typo,

    LNP 26
    ALP 16
    Exh 58

  • 16
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics
    This explains the Qld Newspoll - taken over 3 months vs other polls. The same result http://yfrog.com/h0cm5aup #qldpol
    8:03 AM - 1 Oct 12

    Possum has done a quick chart. As suspected, the newspoll overall result for the quarter is right, but that doesn’t mean the is doing LNP quite as well right now, as Reachtel shows.

  • 17
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    oops – should read “but that doesn’t mean the LNP is doing quite as well right now, as Reachtel shows.”

  • 18
    fairerfields
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    Based on the destruction of the tenant-funded, frontline and regionally based tenant advice and advocacy services (TAAS) I reckon their is a lot more voter discontent that is being registered here.

    Happy International Tenants Day – see what is happening in Qld here: http://bit.ly/QJbeCl

  • 19
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    QLD Newspoll table
    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/09/30/1226484/915421-121001-qld-newspoll.pdf

  • 20
    Poliquant
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Queensland Seat Projection from today’s Newspoll

    http://poliquant.com/queensland-seat-projection-july-sept-newspoll/

  • 21
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/10/01/qld-state-polling-and-bad-analysis/

    Qld State Polling and Bad Analysis
    POSSUM COMITATUS | OCT 01, 2012 9:53AM

    How two pollsters showing identical results can deliver two completely different accounts of voter behaviour – why timeliness matters if you want to avoid bad analysis

    Today we see a Qld State-based Newspoll released by The Australian, accompanied by the usual bad analysis across the media spectrum that’s come to be a bedrock of the Australian political scene.

    Worth reading

  • 22
    fairerfields
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    Does getting a letter in the Snail Mail make you a published writer? http://bit.ly/QEMPkx

  • 23
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    Poliquant
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Mod Lib,

    The ECQ does not calculate individual parties preference flows like the AEC.

    I have estimated the following KAP & Others flow by deduction.

    ...
    LNP 26
    ALP 16
    Exh 58

    Thanks….so inclusion of more KAP voters would decrease everyone else’s primary vote, but increase LNP TPP vote.

  • 24
    fairerfields
    Posted Wednesday, October 3, 2012 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    Gillard government picking-up more pieces of the destructive Newman government with the announcement that will provide funding to the axed tenant advice and advocacy program | http://bit.ly/OCcE63 Qld tenants just won the social justice grand final with Gillard kicking the winning goal. Woo-hoo.

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