The first Queensland state Newspoll since the election delivers remarkably strong figures for Campbell Newman’s government, although the three-month survey period raises questions about their currency.
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has published its first result of state voting intention in Queensland since the election. This has the LNP with a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 48% for the LNP, 30% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Remarkably, this concurs in every respect with Galaxy poll published a month ago, and represents only a modest gain for Labor off an election result of 62.8-37.2, with the LNP’s primary vote only slightly lower than an election result of 49.8%. The Labor vote is also higher than a 26.7% result at the election, with the slack presumably coming off Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the election but for which no result from Newspoll is yet available (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates the poll has it at an enormously implausible 1%). The poll has the Greens at 9%, compared with 7.4% at the election.
The commonality between Newspoll and Galaxy ends at Campbell Newman’s personal ratings: Newspoll has his approval at 47% and his disapproval at 38%, which compares with 44% and 49% from Galaxy. The numbers are in fact slightly better for Newman than the 47% and 40% he recorded in the final pre-election Newspoll. Annastacia Palaszczuk has done correspondingly worse out of Newspoll, with 29% approval and 30% disapproval compared with 36% and 28% from Galaxy. Newman leads Palaszczuk 55-21 as preferred premier.
A note of qualification should be added that this poll is presumably derived from surveying conducted over a three-month period from July to September, during which much occurred in Queensland politics. Were a short-range phone poll such as Galaxy’s to be conducted, it might well produce a different and more current result.