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NSW Politics

Oct 2, 2012

ReachTEL Sydney by-election poll

The sample is small and the methodology perhaps not suited to an inner-city seat, but a private poll suggests Clover Moore-backed independent Alex Greenwich is in the box seat for the October 27 Sydney by-election.

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Josephine Tovey of the Sydney Morning Herald brings results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll on voting intention for the October 27 Sydney by-election, conducted for Clover Moore-endorsed independent candidate Alex Greenwich from a sample of 422. The report says the poll shows Greenwich and Liberal candidate Shayne Mallard “neck and neck to take over (Moore’s) seat”, but what it actually suggests is a very comfortable victory for Greenwich: he and Mallard are both on 31%, and preferences for Greens candidate Chris Harris (on 25%) will flow overwhelmingly in his favour. Indeed, to the extent that there is a contest it would appear on these numbers to be between Greenwich and Harris to see who can win on the back of the other’s preferences (Labor is not fielding a candidate). Antony Green is quoted in the report saying the result should be “treated with some caution as many residents do not have phones at home, particularly in that electorate”. Based purely on the size of the sample, the margin of error for the poll would be approaching 5%.

Antony Green, naturally, has a Sydney-by-election guide in action, as does the formidably productive Poliquant. My own effort will follow soon-ish.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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5 comments

5 thoughts on “ReachTEL Sydney by-election poll

  1. shellbell

    That is a great result for Greenwich

  2. C@tmomma

    Of course he is going to win the seat. he’s a smart, personable guy who appeals to the Sydney demographic that Clover Moore also appeals to, and he has her imprimatur.

    She won big recently, so Alex Greenwich should win big too, I reckon.

  3. Laocoon

    C@tmomma
    I agree with you that I think Greenwich will win.

    But Clover’s last win was pretty close; after preferences: 20,651 vs 18,220 (and it was neck and neck on primaries: 16,909 vs 16,855)

    Greenwich and Mallard are neck and neck on this survey as well. I would be very surprised if Greens get 25% primary

  4. fiona

    Why TF did Crikey just log me off? Okay, back to business:

    Castle,

    [And allow yourself to get beaten by a woman, come on, seriously.
    ]

    So that’s why OH has refused to play chess with me for the past twenty years!

  5. fiona

    William,

    My apologies – my comment was on the wrong post. If you have time and energy enough I would be grateful for its removal.