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Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll gives Julia Gillard her best preferred prime minister rating since February 2011, best net approval rating since March 2011, and Labor its best two-party preferred result since November 2010.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.

Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.

UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.

The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).

UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.

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  • 1
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    Rudd’s “verges on sexism” comment in relation to McKew is just stupid and a little too clever by half.

    I assume Kev, nobody is suggesting you ghost wrote it because Maxine couldn’t (we all know she is a journo you know) but rather so you could colour the events with your own spin.

    Not that I have heard that anybody in the govt has even remotely suggested you have.

    Oh and Nielsen should be another nail in your coffin.

  • 2
    Leroy
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Note, this is NOT the new poll article. Its the September 17th Nielsen article, with a table to give you an idea of the trend etc, for this poll.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-continues-her-rise-20120916-260ms.html

  • 3
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Massive Neilsen resullt…means the 50:50 Newspoll was not necessarily an outlier, more a lower end of MOE result.

  • 4
    dave
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Abbotts Labor at war with itself comment could have been related to him having been given a headsup on this is result

  • 5
    Steven Kaye
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Another very good poll for the Coalition, this pretty much means that Dullard is entrenched as leader through the summer, with virtually no chance of a Krudd exhumation.

    And on those figures, an Abbott Coalition government will be installed quite comfortably with a 2% swing.

    The winds of change blow ever stronger on Parliament Hill…..

  • 6
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Yuk yuk yuk. Speech went down well. PM up 3. The Australian’s 3 page spread of JG falling over came to nought. Nobody cares, nobody reads the Australian any more, discuss.

  • 7
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    For those who remember a discussion earlier in the year, the 2PP graph is looking very much like a bikini top now.

  • 8
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    fiona,

    Watership Down, by that other Adams, is also one of the best books.

  • 9
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    Aguirre@7


    For those who remember a discussion earlier in the year, the 2PP graph is looking very much like a bikini top now.

    I think Tone is afraid to get out of the water.

  • 10
    Leroy
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    frednk – I think that 3 page spead was in the tabloids, not The Oz. I saw it in the Herald Sun. Rest of your point still stands though.

  • 11
    fiona
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    This is comforting news – but I so hope that it doesn’t encourage the FLibs to dispense with Mr Abbott’s services.

    He still remains the progressive side of politics’ greatest asset.

    Anyway, I can go to bed now with a calmer mind. G’night, all!

  • 12
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    The full tables on Abbott’s approval will be interesting. In the last period he has been:

    - Gillarded over his problem with women
    - Humiliated by not raising TowBack policy with SBY, challenging his male leadership standing and courage

    Drops in both female and male demographics could be terminal.

  • 13
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Steven Kaye – the liberal Iraqi information minister equivalent…Karma is a bitch.

    How will Aunty Jack Grattan spin this tomorrow?
    “Well on the one hand it gives Gillard a reprieve from the Rudd forces but on the other hand the primary vote is still really, really bad”.

  • 14
    Andrew
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    a + 7 shift in PPM is a significant change. Good to see the PM 10 points up

  • 15
    Steven Kaye
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Watership Down was a good book, I read it to my children.
    Krudd reminds me of a wounded Woundwort.

  • 16
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Another very good poll for the Coalition

    You promised the next poll would have the Coalition 55-58%, owing to public revulsion at Gillard’s sexism speech.

  • 17
    BK
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Peta will be burning the midnight oil tonight.
    And Margie had better go out shopping for some new clothes!

  • 18
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Steven Kaye@5


    Another very good poll for the Coalition, this pretty much means that Dullard is entrenched as leader through the summer, with virtually no chance of a Krudd exhumation.

    Yeah, it’s all part of Abbott’s brilliant plan to get the ALP into an election winning position by the start of next year so that… err… election now!

  • 19
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    How will Aunty Jack Grattan spin this tomorrow?

    “Z ready to govern in the ACT.”

  • 20
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Steven Kaye
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Another very good poll for the Coalition, this pretty much means that Dullard is entrenched as leader through the summer, with virtually no chance of a Krudd exhumation.

    Two counts of stupidy. Juvanile name calling, and content.

    A “moral” victory is worth nothing Yesterday and a shrinking poll lead, nothing today.

  • 21
    Andrew
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Henry you can be assured Aunty (the new Dennis) will be spinning in hard against the PM. The good thing is that it will keep her boy in his job, which Labor wants.

  • 22
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    I thought you promised to ban him last time William if he was wrong…

  • 23
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Steven,

    You may wish to delete, repeat, delete “Dullard”.

  • 24
    fiona
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    TLBD,

    One two three four
    Tell the people what he wore...

  • 25
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    fiona,

    That’s the one!

  • 26
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    fiona
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    This is comforting news – but I so hope that it doesn’t encourage the FLibs to dispense with Mr Abbott’s services.

    Every time the press suggest an alternative people start rolling around on the floor laughing. For the good of Australia, people should keep a straight face.

  • 27
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    This little black duck

    How will Aunty Jack Grattan spin this tomorrow?

    “Z ready to govern in the ACT.”

    Sky News went one better with a bottom screen ticker tape message descibing him as ‘The triumphant” Z.

  • 28
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    Henry@22


    I thought you promised to ban him last time William if he was wrong…

    But… but… we need a VI.

  • 29
    Andrew
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    it is important to remember that Nielsen has been more generous to the Coalition than Newspoll all year. The next Newspoll could be tighter than this

  • 30
    Laocoon
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 50 (+3) Abbott 40 (-4)

    Turnbull and Hockey might be pleased :evil:

  • 31
    BK
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Sky News went one better with a bottom screen ticker tape message describing him as ‘The triumphant” Z.

    Yes, and Hawthorn were triumphant at the AFL grand final too.

  • 32
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Was there something prophetic in Hartcher’s call for a return to JWH? The Liberals must be connipsing now they are stuck with Abbott on the nose, and with no sign of climbing out of the hole.

  • 33
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    Buttermilk through the week,
    Whiskey on a Sunday.

  • 34
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    If we don’t get a newspoll this weak it will be a four weak break; has that happened before?

  • 35
    trawler
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    So the last Newspoll was the outlier?

  • 36
    fiona
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    TLBD,

    I must say that the spectacle of Mr Abbott in a yellow polka-dot mankini is something that I find even more terrifying than Watership Down.

    Frednk,

    For the good of Australia, people should keep a straight face.

    Indeed :grin:

    And I yam going offline now: the students have had their allotted time, and I am seriously tired.

  • 37
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    It really is time they pensioned Grattan off.
    Every time I hear her on RN she just takes so long to make the point – you know what she is going to say a minute before she finishes her rambling sentence.
    You can almost hear the producer, Fran/Phil/Geraldine thinking FFS get her off. I know I do.

  • 38
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    poroti,

    Z was indeed triumphant in his victory speech. Hubris.

  • 39
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Evening all.

    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+1) L/NP 52 (-1) #auspol

    #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 50 (+3) Abbott 40 (-4) #auspol

    Excellent. Rudd forces eating a shit sandwich for the 5th or 6th week in a row now.

    With any luck they’ll realise the game is up and get behind the current leadership.

  • 40
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    I must say that the spectacle of Mr Abbott in a yellow polka-dot mankini is something that I find even more terrifying than Watership Down.

    Tell you what: he would draw the crowds.

  • 41
    C@tmomma
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Phwoar! :D

    I’m having to kick myself to believe it, but the professionals do call Nielsen, ‘The Honest Poll’, so I guess I will believe it.

    Jeez, the Labor Party should be ‘at war with itself’ more often, it seems to produce positive results! ;)

  • 42
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Ah the smell of a polling trend in the morning :grin:

  • 43
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Have the primaries come through?

    Phil Coorey might need to find a new angle too and heaven forbid, do some actual journalism.

    As for the pin striped, gravitas in training Hartcher, expect him to focus more on international events now.

  • 44
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    So the last Newspoll was the outlier?

    Nielsen 52-48, Essential 53-47, Newspoll 54-46. No call for outlier talk with any of them.

  • 45
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    “@geeksrulz: Laurie Oakes: Politicians don’t come more ferocious & brutal than Abbott. Pure attack dog style, as feral as you’d get. #auspol”

  • 46
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Does Nielsen have a net satisfaction for Gillard? If so what’s the trend?

  • 47
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    trawler@35


    So the last Newspoll was the outlier?

    Who “owns” Newspoll?

  • 48
    Doyley
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    To top off this result the government is back into policy tomorrow with the budget update.

    The approach that will be taken is obvious based on the comment by Mr Swan today in his economic statement.

    THe budget update will be a ” statement of beliefs ”

    Strong focus on NDIS, Gronski and dental.

    They want policy debate , bring it on.

  • 49
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Rudd’s “verges on sexism” comment in relation to McKew is just stupid and a little too clever by half.

    It also undermines the thinly veiled slap he gave to the Prime Minister defending herself against Abbott’s sexism and misogyny in parliament. He has essentially undermined his own admonishment by raising the issue of sexism in relation to McKew.

    Dumb-arse.

  • 50
    C@tmomma
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    For Newspoll to delay a week, it must have been looking even better than this Nielsen for the ALP. :)

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