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Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll gives Julia Gillard her best preferred prime minister rating since February 2011, best net approval rating since March 2011, and Labor its best two-party preferred result since November 2010.

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GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.

Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.

UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.

The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).

UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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5727 comments

5,727 thoughts on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. Greensborough Growler

    Scorps,

    Terrific idea. No notion of how to make it happen. But, you have my full support.

  2. davidwh

    I haven’t been on PB long enough to work PB out. But I have learned how to duck. Good for the reflexes.

  3. guytaur

    @BreakingNews: Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi sentenced to 4 years in jail in tax fraud trial – @Reuters; details: http://t.co/nYTlQfcf

  4. Carey Moore

    [@BreakingNews: Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi sentenced to 4 years in jail in tax fraud trial]

    Any chance he’ll appeal his way out of it? Either way, it is HUGH! (He was once considered invincible)

  5. guytaur

    Carey

    No idea about Italian appeal process. Yes huge all over the news feeds

  6. johncanb

    Little black duck at 5682. Fo not give up the faith yet. The declaration votes are not posted yet, so Labor may yet end up in the lead in the ACT primary vote.

  7. johncanb

    Do not give up… Not ‘Fo not give up…

  8. Carey Moore

    Mind you, I remember celebrating the end of the prick, once and for all, when Prodi defeated him… so, y’know… I’ll believe it when I see it…

  9. William Bowe

    [No idea about Italian appeal process.]

    I can tell you that it notoriously overturns or dramatically revises about half of the convictions recorded in the lower courts. No idea if that’s the situation here though.

  10. CTar1

    Was Emma having one of her very obvious goes?

    From Cormann to Geert Wilders.

  11. William Bowe

    Poor old subeditors these days are apparently so hard-pressed that they don’t have time to look past the opening sentence in composing their headlines. Take this effort atop Laurie Oakes’s column in the Herald Sun:

    [Policy bigwigs impressed by Joe Hockey’s speech on welfare payments in London]

    Which is simply a paraphrase of Oakes’s opening sentence – and an inaccurate one at that. Here’s the meat of Oakes’s column:

    [But contrast the London Hockey with the parochial (dare one say hypocritical?) pollie on display on home soil this week, after the Government included a couple of relatively small cutbacks to entitlements in its Budget update.

    One was a reduction of the baby bonus from $5000 to $3000 for second and subsequent children; the other involved indexation changes to curb the rising cost of the private health insurance rebate.

    The measures are part of Treasurer Wayne Swan’s effort to bring the Budget back to surplus this financial year. (“Budget surpluses must be restored!” thundered Hockey the Speechifier in his Institute address.)

    But did the shadow treasurer support them? Not on your nelly.

    “Today’s document is going to hit families hard,” he complained. It “continues Labor’s attack on families”. Australian families “need all the assistance they can get with the rising cost of living”.

    In other words, leave the entitlements alone.

    It is no surprise that Opposition Leader Tony Abbott would take this view. He is shameless about putting politics ahead of economic responsibility – or, for that matter, truth.]

  12. zoidlord

    @William/5713

    Believe that is a term for getting desperate at the top end? (or is that bottom end?)..

  13. Jackol

    The measures are part of Treasurer Wayne Swan’s effort to bring the Budget back to surplus this financial year.

    Is it imprudent to point out that neither of those measures (baby bonus changes or indexation of private health insurance rebate) come into effect until after July 2013 and won’t affect “this financial year” expenditure in any way?

    The MYEFO things that went into helping out this year’s “bottom line” are a whole bunch of the scrappy little things like the ATO taking over inactive super etc.

    But I guess that wasn’t Oakes’ point, and journalistic accuracy is a quaint anachronistic concept now?

  14. CTar1

    On Berlusconi and appeals – might get reversed later but stuffed for elections for now.

    Too old, too late.

  15. kevjohnno

    [zoidlord

    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    @Lord/5698

    If your not expecting any mail – just junk it automatically.]

    Another guide is if you get an email asking you to pass on some dire warning to everyone on your list, don’t.

  16. CTar1

    This Eid ‘ceasefire’ seems to be working a treat.

  17. Carey Moore

    Cosi, quando i italiani vanno alle successivi urne? Presto?

  18. Carey Moore

    (or, in inglese, “So, when do the Italians go to the polls? Soon?”)

  19. Carey Moore

    That should actually read: “When do the Italians NEXT go to the polls? Soon?” Gah… my English is worse than my Italian at times! (A volte, il mio inglese è peggio del mio italiano!)

  20. Danny Lewis

    Good morning, Bludgers (and especially Fiona, who apparently needs cheering up;-))!

    The sun is up.

    The birds are singing.

    Labor is still in government.

    Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.

    Tony Abbott is still Prime Misogynist.

    Wayne Swan will always be the World’s Greatest Treasurer.

    Anthony Albanese will always be the World’s Greatest Infrastructure Minister.

    The polling trend is moving the right way.

    All is right with the world. 😀

  21. zoomster

    Carey

    the problem with the Superman joke is that it can only work if you use the ‘an X an X and an X” format.

    Anyway…

    A guy walks into the bar, orders a beer and sits down. The barman says, “Excuse me a minute, sir” and vanishes into a back room.

    The guy sits there.

    Then he hears a tiny voice: “You’re wearing a very nice tie.”

    He looks around. Nobody in sight.

    The tiny voice again: “I really like the way that shirt brings out the colour in your eyes.”

    He looks around. No one.

    “They’re beautiful eyes, by the way.”

    He’s panicking now. Puts the beer down rather firmly.

    The barman wanders back in.

    “Something wrong, sir?”

    Bloke clears his throat, and says, a little nervously, “I keep thinking I hear voices.”

    “Ah,” says the barman. “That’d be the peanuts. They’re complimentary.”

  22. Muskiemp

    Hi all,
    I’m back home after the removal of the 3cm tumour from my bladder. The op was yesterday afternoon, so stayed over night at the hospital. All is OK the tumour has been sent to have a biopsy.My bladder is a bit weak, I have already had 3 accidents with my bladder and I am now wearing pads 🙂

  23. lefty e

    Way to shoot yourself in the foot ALP!

    Yeah great idea, pick some worthless no-name factional shitstain (distinguished only by his demonstrated capacity to destroy a leader, and a clear poll lead with it) over Wong, one of your top performers.

    DO you ever think maybe the polling deficit is … all your own fault?

  24. deblonay

    Is the Tea Party helping the Democrats.”http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-the-tea-party-is-helping-democrats/2012/10/19/815e0