tip off

Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll gives Julia Gillard her best preferred prime minister rating since February 2011, best net approval rating since March 2011, and Labor its best two-party preferred result since November 2010.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.

Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.

UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.

The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).

UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.

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  • 2651
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    Laocoon:

    Subtext: an embarrassment! Only 8 parliamentary sitting days left. At the current rate, this weekend’s Newspoll is going to be interesting

    Or postponed again? Or even more in line with other NewsIntel UK’s tampering (besides “disappeared” OpPoll results) with 2009 pre-election polls showing so much support for LibDems?

    This is Rupert Murdoch and his rampant ambition to control world governments, as well as world media, we’re talking here!

    In his opinion, Australia has no right to have a government he does not control (more especially one threatening to control his freedom to get his own way on everything) nor to have so much Aussie media (esp social media) and the carriage of very high-speed internet access (aka NBN) which, as yet, remains beyond his control – situations he is determined to reverse, no matter what he has to do to win his self-declared wars on the current government and the situations it’s creating.

    BTW, Oz Parliament’s last 4 sitting days so often either herald, or actually produce, an Opposition Killing Time.

    Abbott’s faction and its supporters (as well as Murdoch) must be packing death at the sudden reversal in fortunes (and in MSM reporting of) Abbott’s rant against Slipper & what he slated as PM Gillard’s continuing support for the then Speaker’s “sexism” and “mysogyny”; which, along with comments that the Government should have died of shame, precipitated the Prime Minister’s internationally lauded response. Even worse, yesterday’s idiotic Abbott remark (widely interpreted as aimed at belittling Julia Gillard’d childless state) has seen even Canberra press Gallery senior figures change their reporting.

    In addition, the reaction seems to have impacted OpPoll support for PM Gillard – positively, even among men – and LOTO Abbott – negatively, even among men.

    How likey, given yesterday, NewsPoll (if honestly conducted, analysed & reported) will return anything positive for Murdoch and the Opposition he so desperately wants to elevate to power for his own megalomaniacal aims?

  • 2652
    MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    BH

    I have just caught up with the very sad news of Vera’s passing.

    She was a lady of great spirit and humour who stuck by her convictions and took on all comers.

    I miss her already.

    If you are in touch with her family could you please pass on my sincere condolences to them.

    She will be sadly missed and her family will have a huge hole in their lives which only time will heal.

    Vale Vera! Kev is still alive and kicking!

  • 2653
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    Re Thomson

    Keep an eye out on how much stuff they take away and whether it looks like they are pretending to be carrying stuff.

    Classic ASIC trick.

    Maybe wikky will repeat his assertion about the police raid on HSU and Williamson:

    Also, sources say, the story about HSU boss Michael Williamson trying to sneak out a back door with evidence was total rubbish — done presumably to implicate guilt. In fact, Mr Williamson left the office via the entrance the police were offered access to, as his car was parked in the car park opposite; the things he was carrying were taken by police as a routine part of the operation, as were his personal items — and probably a sandwich as well.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/how-the-hsu-tangled-jackson-lawler-and-thomson-with-abbott/

    That was not quite right as Williamson has been charged withe 20 offences arising from that episode

  • 2654
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    Love the heading for this article.

    http://theblogicalvoice.com/2012/10/23/journalists-are-from-mars-bloggers-are-from-venus/

  • 2655
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: Craig Thomson expected to speak to media shortly after 9am about the police raid”

  • 2656
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    Morning all.

    Sky reporting the police investigation into Thomson is being led by the Victorian Homicide Squad.

    Homicide?

    Thomson has just sent a text to a reporter saying he will make some comments later.

  • 2657
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Gottliebsen, for what it worth -

    My advice to Julia Gillard is to call an election within the next six months. Last night on markets there were some scary developments for Wayne Swan’s mini budget, while the Morgan Poll has the ALP a nose in front of the Coalition which has slumped.

    Other pollsters have picked up the same trend but have not gone as far as Morgan.

    In other words, after being written off Gillard is on a roll and that roll might continue in coming months as interest rates fall.

    But further ahead there are some global and local nasties. Last night traders began shorting copper because they believe that China is not going to stimulate further and that Stephen Koukoulas called it correctly when he suggested that the latest China growth figures overstate the real position - something revealed in depressed electricity consumption (Can we trust the Chinese growth figures? October 19)

    If the shorters are right then Treasury’s optimistic China and commodity scenarios are wrong.

    ...The time to go to the polls is when the government nasties are not apparent and you can flush out from Tony Abbott his new federalist policies, which lowers duplication with the states but is tough on public servant jobs. In those circumstances and it will be a close fight and Gillard has a real chance of winning.

    Six months ago, Julia Gillard was set to be voted out by huge majority. She can gamble that her better polling trend will keep going, but in my view that is very dangerous and right now the opposition is not ready, and the nasties have not yet come to the surface.

    Full article -

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/julia-gillard-election-economy-budget-surplus-Abbo-pd20121024-ZCRL4?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

  • 2658
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: Craig Thomson expected to speak to media shortly after 9am about the police raid”

    Surely his lawyers have told him to stfu.

  • 2659
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Sky reporting the police investigation into Thomson is being led by the Victorian Homicide Squad.

    Now that’s quality reporting!

  • 2660
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    CTar:

    There isn’t much difference in quality between the Sky A and B graders these days!

  • 2661
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    My guess is it’s a fishing expedition.

    He has previously declined interview, which is his right. So if there are allegations, they need to see if they can be sustained.

    NSW Plod acting on behalf of Victorian Plod

    Mr Thomson has denied any wrongdoing.

  • 2662
    mari
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 8:42 am | PERMALINK
    And Libtweeta responds

    Holey moley. RT @Kate_McClymont: Police are raiding the Bateau Bay home of MP Craig Thomson.
    8:39am - 24 Oct 12

    Guess this will be played up by MSM (former ALP member etc) just in time for Newspoll?

  • 2663
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    The interesting thing today will be to see how much the Federal Opposition respects sub judice in a criminal case

  • 2664
    Jackol
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    I can’t believe the Vic police actually expect to find anything incriminating – Craig Thomson, whether guilty or not, would be an idiot to have left evidence just sitting around his house waiting for a dozey cop to stumble across it, and the alleged incidents are over 5 years ago – it would be hard to find evidence of anything from 5 years ago in my house.

    Putting on the tinfoil hat makes me think the Vic police have been hassled to show that something is being done over Thomson, and they chose to execute a pointless search warrant to show them “doing something”. Presumably the alternative was to just let the whole matter drop which might not have been acceptable to certain interested parties.

  • 2665
    CO
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    Brandis & Abetz smugly referred to forthcoming police action on Thomson last week. While there is real crime in NSW & Vic the LNP have got significant police resources diverted to this clearly political crap.

  • 2666
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    shellbell@2658



    “@Simon_Cullen: Craig Thomson expected to speak to media shortly after 9am about the police raid”


    Surely his lawyers have told him to stfu.

    shellbell – In one of Grishams novels, a lawyer has a stuffed and mounted fish on display in his office with a plaque saying “If I’d kept my mouth shut I wouldn’t be here”.

  • 2667
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: PM Gillard has reappointed Quentin Bryce to continue serving as Governor General until 2014.”

  • 2668
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    confessions

    On radio it was reported that the Fraud squad had executed a warrant

  • 2669
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: Are you for real?? RT @Kate_McClymont The oldest cadet reporter in the world has just arrived on the scene at Craig’s home – Ray Hadley.”

  • 2670
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Good news

  • 2671
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    I found this comment, from GG’s link at #2654, to be a particularly significant observation.

    “If citizens were limited by the small snippets of the [Gillard calling Abbott on his repeated misogyny] video hand-picked and tailored for the 6PM television news, the response may have differed considerably. This highlights how online video platforms are challenging the hegemonic power of traditional broadcasters,….”

  • 2672
    joe2
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    I’m going to miss her.
    Vale Vera. Condolences to her family.

    Likewise, so clever & funny was our Vera.

  • 2673
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    Fairfax AGM today.

    Talk about being a creek without a paddle -

    Fairfax Media Ltd chief executive Greg Hywood will likely face more questions about breaking up the company, after The Australian valued the publisher's mastheads and radio assets at just $210 million.

    Fairfax's market capitalisation of $890 million includes $680 million from its 51 per cent stake in online auction site TradeMe, which has been valued at $NZ1.69 billion ($1.3 billion), according to the report.

    That leaves just $210 million to account for the company's Australian mastheads, including The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Australian Financial Review, as well as radio stations such as Sydney's 2UE and Melbourne's popular 3AW.

    But Mr Hywood, who will face investors at Fairfax's annual general meeting today, said yesterday the company had run the numbers on a break-up, and they didn't stack up.

  • 2674
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    BW:

    The Liberal Party could do itself and Australia a major, cleansing, favour: sack Mr Abbott, Ms Credlin and Mr Loughnane.

    This trio has spent the best part of four years wrecking the joint.

    The line I’ve used with my colleagues in the high-discretionary-spending area of high-end Home entertainment has been simple:

    “Every time Abbott or Hockey trash the economy, you lose another sale.”

    It works a treat.

    I then follow up with:

    “If buyers have no confidence, then they won’t go out and make purchases. First cab off the rank will be your $xx,000 widget {insert name of expensive Home Entertainment toy here}

    I really does get them thinking.

    My killer concluding line is:

    “It’s not a game anymore. It’s not FUN anymore. It’s real. The Coalition is talking down YOUR business for no reason. They didn’t get their early election. All they have is a lead in the polls – and that’s fading away.

    Is the damage they’ve done – and are still doing – to your business worth it?”

    It’s amazing how resonant these few simple lines can be. Even the drongo who wanted Gillard to fall over on gravel and break her face listened, eventually.

    We don’t need to change ALL their votes, just a couple of percent more and the boot’s on the other foot re. the Coalition (they’ll have nothing to show for two years of wrecking), the OM I(who will finally get the message that their own industry is tanking) and the voters.

    If an extra 1-in-25 of them change their minds, we win.

    The government should start this ball rolling, across all fronts. Put misogyny to one side. It’s important, but not as important as convicting the Coalition of directly affecting confidence and thus the economy.

    It’s the kind of simple message – personalised and blunt – that thrives on Mark Simkin-like repetition montages. The more the OM points out (cynically, heh-heh) this is the “new message”, the more the unters will absorb it.

    The point is made repeatedly in Question Time, but never broadcast. It’s time to take it to the streets and to social media. It should be the No. 1 talking point as parliament winds up for the year.

    They shut-up Abbott on misogyny (or an explanation required, which is worse for him). They can shut him up trash-talking the economy, but only if it’s made the universal message of the day, week, month.

    The aim of the campaign would be to have the punters so exasperated with the doom-and-gloom talk from the Coalition that they yell at their TV sets, “Just SHUT-UP Abbott!”

    In answer to the objection that “the government would say that”, you just reply:

    "That's the government's JOB. Confidence is a real input to the economy. The government has a SUTY to talk confidence up, especially when it's warranted. Without confidence no-one gets out of bed in the morning. And anyway, it's the best economy in the world. We SHOULD be bragging about it."

    Hammer it home. Make it stick.

    My own industry is easy, because it’s so sensitive to dorks like Can-Do Campbell saying things like “Queensland is the new Greece.” Other industries are harder nuts to crack, but do-able.

    The good thing about a confidence and anti-trash-talk campaign is that it’s not only clever, but has the virtue of being the correct, responsible and truthful thing to do.

  • 2675
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Fraud Squad sounds more plausible than the HOmicide mob.

    Unless the police are looking for dead prostitutes.

  • 2676
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    “@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott ‘I think it’s very important that [Former Labor MP Craig Thomson] co-operate with police.’ #HSU”

  • 2677
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    Isn’t the GG’s term usually 5 years? If so, Bryce must’ve only accepted on the condition the term is a truncated one.

  • 2678
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Libtweeta out there in no time at all reporting Abbott’s remarks

  • 2679
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Context Shmontext

  • 2680
    frednk
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    If you want trivia questions on t he USA.

    Which demgraphic group commits the most murders in the USA?

  • 2681
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    “@guytaur: Mr Abbott it is important for Mr Thomson to follow the advice of his lawyers. Not that of a political enemy #auspol”

  • 2682
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    The OM now have their Newspoll fodder for this week: Thomson

    It is all so utterly predictable

  • 2683
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Andrew

    I noticed that too. I have yet to see Libtweeta link the PM speech or articles about Abbott’s latest gaffes. But you can be assured of her commentary on Rudd and Thomson. You can set your clock to it

  • 2684
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    The coppers do have to satisfy a magistrate that whatever they are looking for is connected with a possible crime and is likely to be on the premises to get the warrant although they can say what they like to do so.

  • 2685
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    I rang a radio station this morning for the first time in my life. Radio 2UE Jason Morrison was talking about what Tony Abbott said yesterday re Government experience with babies and he was asking the question “is the PM too sensitive?” The first caller (male) said TA was only telling the truth because how would Gillard know, she does not have any kids. So I rang and asked “what did the PM actually say?”

    Heartiest congratulations, Phil Vee #2588! Very well said!

    I hope you, too, find that making such a step, often very nervous (and, to be honest, fearful & stomach-churning as well as joyful at the strength of your own courage) about the shite you might cop from those whose power & credibility of opinions you are challenging, is so very empowering! Those first small steps are the critical ones in any revolution.

    Allons enfants de la patrie,
    Le jour de gloire est arrivé!
    Contre nous de la tyrannie
    L'étendard sanglant est levé! (bis)
    Entendez-vous dans les campagnes,
    Mugir ces féroces soldats?
    Ils viennent jusque dans nos bras
    Égorger nos fils, nos compagnes!

    One of the best cinematic capture of its original significance (from “Casablanca”) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM-E2H1ChJM

  • 2686
    Jackol
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    Confessions -

    Isn’t the GG’s term usually 5 years? If so, Bryce must’ve only accepted on the condition the term is a truncated one.

    Yeah, I thought that sounded odd.

    Why would the government reappoint the GG for what amounts to one extra year?

    Strategically it makes no sense – the government have the ability to appoint the GG for another 5 years, why open the possibility of gifting the LNP the choice of GG in 2014 if the LNP win in 2013?

    I think someone has misunderstood or mistyped something.

  • 2687
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    Andrew

    Another thing I notice about Libtweeta, is that her reportage of QT, she usually quotes comments made by the opposition, but not the govt.

  • 2688
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    I think someone has misunderstood or mistyped something.

    Either that or Bryce said she only wanted one more year. She’s not getting any younger.

  • 2689
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    @JuliaGillard: Answering education questions live right now at @ivillageaus. Get involved here http://t.co/fYhlC3XO TeamJG http://t.co/u3DUTO9e

    @julieposetti: Journalists, Twitter gaffes & freedom of expression – the @ericcampbellfcp case & shifting ‘rules of engagement’ http://t.co/2rj2fnYp

  • 2690
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Jackol

    It makes sense if you know you can win an election.

  • 2691
    Jackol
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    BB – so why would they try to squeeze another year out of a reluctant Bryce? Just appoint someone else for the normal timeframe.

  • 2692
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Victoria, and she does it verbatim, never any criticism or analysis

  • 2693
    MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Either that or Bryce said she only wanted one more year. She’s not getting any younger.

    My feelings as well.

  • 2694
    Jackol
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    I mean the choice of GG doesn’t really matter all that much in the normal scheme of things, provided the choice is someone with integrity and without too much baggage.

    I’m just a bit horrified at the thought that an Abbott government could appoint JWH to the role, and that the ALP might be opening the door to this possibility when they have it in their power to keep that door firmly shut.

  • 2695
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    Andrew

    Seriously Libtweeta should not be doing this at the taxpayers expense. She should go and work for News Ltd

  • 2696
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    @774melbourne: Listener text: If Craig Thomson has anything incriminating in his house after all this time, he deserves to go to jail! #police #raid #faine

  • 2697
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    guytaur,

    Maybe they want to arrest his penis as a material witness.

  • 2698
    lyne lady
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    vic
    libtweeta is purely and simply a cut and paste person – she has never had an original thought in her head…. how she can command a salary with the rubbish she serves up is just amazing..

  • 2699
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    What is this about Ray Hadley? He is actually at Thomson’s home?

  • 2700
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    LL

    My patience run out last week. Her conduct with respect to the UN seat and the PM statement was unprofessional and partisan

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