tip off

Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition in NSW

Wherein NSW Labor trails on the two-party vote in Newspoll by less than 20 points for the first time since March-April 2010.

I wouldn’t quite go popping the champagne corks yet if I were them, but the latest bi-monthly Newspoll of state voting intention finds NSW Labor with a four in front of its two-party vote for the first time in well over two years. The two-party result of 59-41 for September-October compares with 61-39 in July-August, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down two), 28% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is the best result for Labor and the worst for the Coalition since March-April 2010. Significantly, Barry O’Farrell’s net approval rating has hit the negative for the first time, his approval down a point to 36% and disapproval up five to 42%. However, John Robertson is doing no better, his approval down one to 25% and disapproval up five to 39%. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is 46-22, down from 47-18.

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  • 1
    Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Live-with-able

  • 2
    Henry
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Well it’s trending up….
    The sooner labor makes Luke Foley leader the better.
    BOF is dull but cagey. He doesn’t really do anything but is good at hosing down expectations.
    He governs like he has a one seat majority, cautious, tepid, dull, uninspiring.

  • 3
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Any Labor supporter that views these results as good should join Eric Idle on the Cross singing “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life”.

  • 4
    Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    R U not a fan of Robertson, GG?

  • 5
    mari
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Any Labor supporter that views these results as good should join Eric Idle on the Cross singing “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life”

    GG Have a look on previous Nielsen re the tweet I found for you
    night night now.

  • 6
    Henry
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Didn’t say they were good GG, just trending.
    Seriously, this has been a pathetic govt, can anybody tell me what they have actually done apart from screwing the public service, jacking up fees and fares and belatedly (18 months after winning office) releasing a dogs breakfast, unfunded transport plan?
    BOF is as bad as Baillieu, he is just not as stupid as Ted and doesn’t lead with his chin.

  • 7
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib,

    Leadership of a the Party in such a predicament is a thankless task. So I’m not thanking him.

  • 8
    Jon Wardle
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Okay… long time lurker, experimental commentator. The downgrade in both LNP stocks *and* Robertson stocks – is this an indication that the public is fed up with NSW Right faction Sussex St antics? I wonder how much ALP would gain if they just gave them the boot?

  • 9
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Well, the only way is up if you started from where NSW Labor has come from.

    And yes Jon Wardle, you’re absolutely correct. The sooner that they get rid of the Neanderthals, the quicker the recovery.

  • 10
    Henry
    Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Welcome Jon, keep posting.
    I like Robbo, is a good bloke and all that.
    Just has no cut through and is tainted by the past.
    Labor needs a fresh start and a fresh voice.

  • 11
    grubbidok
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Thanks for kind words (re Jon W), have changed as my position requires engagement with both parties, though obviously I believe only one espouses public health principles. Have moved from Qld in last few mths. Thought they were a mess! NSW has a lot more clearing out to do! Buyer’s remorse will at least get most of Newman’s lot in Qld. BTW… ALP lost a future leader w Di Farmer losing Bulimba by a few votes, hope she comes back.

  • 12
    Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    I say give it to Dr McDonald

  • 13
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 4:08 am | Permalink

    and this is before there is a cavalcade of the old guard plus one or two of the present lining up before ICAC next week

  • 14
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Imagine how well Labor would be doing if they had a leader who wasn’t largely responsible for wrecking the last Labor government.

  • 15
    Roy Orbison
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    I don’t think they’ve learnt a thing. The big news from them this week was falling in line behind O’Barrell and caving in completely to Richie Rich and his casino. Then again, it is always going to be a long road back and Robertson is not going to be there when the whips are cracking. The only thing going for Labor is that fact the the Liberals are in power. Won’t take long for them to resume their normal position of being absolutely hated.

  • 16
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    A good question Psephos.

    I see in this story that the government may change in NSW, but the level of corruption in the property development industry does not. Jamie Packer is the latest beneficiary of State largesse:

    THE Premier, Barry O'Farrell, has played down the potential cost to James Packer of Sydney's second casino licence, leaving open the possibility he will pay nothing by arguing his proposal for a $1 billion complex at Barangaroo is ''not a full-blown casino'' and will benefit the state.

    The decision means the casino and hotel project, which Mr Packer's company, Crown Ltd, formally lodged with the government on September 6, will be assessed by a government panel overseen by an independent person yet to be appointed.

    Mr O'Farrell confirmed that a second licence would be issued only after the existing monopoly licence, held by Crown's competitor Echo Entertainment, owner of the Star casino, expired in November 2019.

    Crown estimates that when fully operational the casino and hotel complex could inject about $400 million a year into the economy, and create 1400 jobs.

    But he would not reveal whether Mr Packer would be asked to pay a licence fee, saying that was to be determined by the stage two assessment panel. Echo paid $100 million to the former Labor government for the rights to the monopoly licence.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/how-the-casino-deal-fell-into-packers-hands-20121025-288bc.html#ixzz2ALpVlO9K

    So Packer might be let off a $100 million dollar license fee in return for doing the State the “favour” of building a cassino on prime land controlled by the government.

    Claims that cassinos have large economic benefits are nonsense. They don’t generate wealth; they transfer it from the local entertainment industry. Meanwhile they do generate poverty, and often more crime. For example:

    Professor John Kindt of the University of Illinois reported in the Michigan State DCL Law Review in
    2003 that, “in a convenience gambling economy, discretionary spending is diverted from other forms of entertainment and consumer expenditures to casinos and other gambling establishments. Restaurants,
    hotels, and other competing local businesses lose revenues and fail.” The NGISC reported this cannibalizing effect in Atlantic City where 78% or 245 of the local businesses and restaurants near the boardwalk went out of business after the casinos opened.

    http://www.casinowatch.org/studies_research/New%20Casinos%20Impact.pdf

  • 17
    Poliquant
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    NSW Seat Projection after today’s Newspoll

    http://poliquant.com/nsw-seat-projection-newspoll-sep-oct-201/

  • 18
    kakuru
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    BOF and his govt have been like a deer in the headlights, too scared to move. NSW is in dire need of infrastructure, especially Sydney. This will cost a LOT of money. BOF has two choices: gouge taxpayers, or borrow heavily. The second choice will threaten NSW’s AAA credit rating (which is already looking precarious).

    So BOF has done nothing – except help out his mates, and appease the mad fishers and shooters that hold the balance of power in the upper house.

  • 19
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    If BOF and government are so short of revenue, then why give away a $100 million license fee to a billionaire??

  • 20
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    Imagine how well Labor would be doing if they had a leader who wasn’t largely responsible for wrecking the last Labor government.

    Does that person even exist? As for Dr McDonald, by the time NSW Labor are even remotely competitive (in 2019) he will be 64 years old. The next Labor premier of NSW is not in parliament yet.

  • 21
    kakuru
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    If BOF and government are so short of revenue, then why give away a $100 million license fee to a billionaire??

    Two reasons.

    (1) The obvious: he’s a mate.

    (2) BOF & co see this as an investment, with revenue coming back to the govt many times over once the casino is up and running.

  • 22
    kakuru
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 1:15 pm | Permalink

    The next Labor premier of NSW is not in parliament yet.

    Yes, and they’ll be lots of low-hanging fruit for the ALP at the next election.

  • 23
    Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    kakuru
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 1:15 pm | PERMALINK
    The next Labor premier of NSW is not in parliament yet.

    Yes, and they’ll be lots of low-hanging fruit for the ALP at the next election.

    Look on the bright side, guys…..at least it aint “The next Labor premier of NSW is not born yet”

    Hehe :)

  • 24
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 6:52 am | Permalink

    Of course this poll is just before the McDonald/Obeid ICAC starts. It should be the best show in town for the next few months and won’t help Labor’s rebuilding.

    Foley won’t be leader despite being bt far the best performer because a. He’s an MLC and b. because he is left and detested by the right – I think Nathan ensured that experiment won’t happen again.

  • 25
    Socrates
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    As Oakshott said, spreading of the Obeid/McDonald inquiry, here comes the damage:

    THE best friend of the disgraced former mining minister Ian Macdonald has been exposed as a secret shareholder in a company awarded a lucrative coal licence by Mr Macdonald in 2009.

    Mr Jones suggested that it was because of prying journalists that he had to hide his shareholding. ''Because you know someone, it must be underhand … It is not a crime knowing people,'' he said from Singapore yesterday.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/ministers-best-mate-was-in-on-coal-deal-20121026-28b62.html#ixzz2ARF10mC4

    Knowing people is not a crime, but failing to disclose material conflicts of interest usually is.

    It is not NSW Labor’s fault for having individuals like Obeid &co in the party. They exist in every group. But failing to remove them from power when their faults were well known for years is the fault of Sussex Street, and they will be damned for it.

  • 26
    shellbell
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    It is not NSW Labor’s fault for having individuals like Obeid &co in the party. They exist in every group. But failing to remove them from power when their faults were well known for years is the fault of Sussex Street, and they will be damned for it.

    I suspect that Obeid, his boys and McDonald will be different to your average bad apples.

    Iemma and Rees are coming along to give evidence presumably on just what they knew and felt they could do. They were resistant to the apples as best I know. Keneally, by contrast, appeared to be less discerning.

  • 27
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    Iemma and Rees’ options were fairly limited.
    Carr had the power to limit the criminal wing of the party but was only partially successful – he allegedly just ducked the ashtray that Obeid threw at him when he was left out of a cabinet reshuffle. When it was far too late Conference gave Rees the power to remove Tripodi and Joe replied by removing Rees.

  • 28
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    It will be fascinating to see the degree of Roozendaal’s involvement.

  • 29
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    I simply don’t buy the media’s “Labor will out of power for a generation” in NSW/QLD meme. They were saying the same thing about the Federal Coalition in 2007!

    Complete bollocks.

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