Live coverage of the by-election to fill Clover Moore's vacancy in the state seat of Sydney. Moore-backed independent Alex Greenwich takes the field against Shayne Mallard of the Liberals and Chris Harris of the Greens, Labor having piked.
8.05pm. Primary votes for the eight outstanding booths have been added, together with 4709 pre-polls: Greenwich 48.9% (swing of 9.9% on the booths), Liberal 29.8% (swing -5.1%), Greens 17.7% (swing 5.6%).
7.56pm. Much lower exhausted preferences rate on the basis of these eight booths: 8.5% compared with 14.3% last year. Presumably this is to do with the absence of Labor votes.
7.51pm. On a booth-matched basis, the eight booths reporting 2CP results show a 5.6% swing from Liberal to independent.
7.46pm. First two-candidate preferred figures, from eight booths, show a non-booth matched margin for Greenwich over Liberal of 15.9%.
7.36pm. The NSWEC disappointingly uploads 13 booths (which is most of them) in one hit, and Alex Greenwich’s win becomes even clearer: he’s on 49.2%, up 9.9% on Clover Moore on booth-matched basis, with Greens up 4.1% and Liberal down 4.5%.
7.07pm. And in case I’ve left any doubt there, Greenwich is clearly going to win.
7.06pm. Primary votes posted from four booths chime well with those just noted by Greenwich: him on 46.0%, Liberal on 34.7%, Greens on 16.5%. On a booth-matched basis, Greenwich is doing 5.7% better than Moore, while the Greens vote is up 3.6% and the Liberals down 2.5%. Given how low the Labor vote was at the election, that actually looks a respectable result for the Greens, and a poor one for the Liberals.
6.50pm. Guytaur in comments relates that Alex Greenwich has tweeted: Early results from our scrutineers: Greenwich 44%, Liberals 37%, Greens 15%ׇ. Pointing to an easy win for him and yet another disappointing night for the Greens.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Sydney by-election: live commentary to follow. I won’t be going to town with booth-matched results and such on this occasion, but rest assured that Antony Green will be.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.