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Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition

A lot has happened since Galaxy’s last federal poll in mid-June – enough on this evidence to have lifted Labor three points, while still leaving them well short of the two-party parity recorded by Newspoll. Tony Abbott also cops the troubling finding that even Coalition voters now prefer Malcolm Turnbull.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.

The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).

UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.

Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.

SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES
October 27, 2012

					#	%	Swing	2PP	%
Alex Greenwich (Independent)		17,687	47.3%		21,283	63.7%
Shayne Mallard (Liberal)		11,543	30.9%	+5.3%	12,120	36.3%
Chris Harris (Greens)			6,616	17.7%	+4.9%
Glenn Wall (Independent)		825	2.2%
Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic)	724	1.9%	+0.8%
Labor							-11.3%

Formal					37,395	97.2%	-0.6%
Informal				1,062	2.8%	+0.6%
Enrolment/Turnout			61,428	62.6%	-21.3%

Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION
October 20, 2012

				Seats	#	%	Swing
Liberal				8 (+2)	86,032	38.9%	+7.3%
Labor				8 (+1)	85,991	38.9%	+1.5%
Greens				1 (-3)	23,773	10.7%	-4.9%
Others				0 (-)	25,376	11.5%	-3.9%

Formal					221,172	96.5%	+0.3%
Informal				7,953	3.5%	-0.3%
Enrolment/Turnout			256,702	89.3%	-1.1%

Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.

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  • 1
    Fiz
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    A 6 point difference on LNP primary vote between Newspoll (41) and Galaxy (47). Does that mean Galaxy does better in getting respondents to make a choice and not go with Others?

  • 2
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    e Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:09 pm | PERMALINK
    I did not notice that, ALP +3, Libs -3.

    PUFF yes i think thats important
    are galaxy just catching up

  • 3
    James J
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    Rest of the poll is in the previous thread

  • 4
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    why would they if you had been ask the yesterday
    2010 question before the how would you vote question
    may that would colour your answer, like stop and thinking about the past,
    i think polls should be released with the questions
    showing in what context

    still beats me how any one could vote for them
    looks like the liberal voters are also wanting

    turnbul i doubt very much that will happen

    just like the kev thing why on earth do these
    pollsters ask such yesterday questions.

    why not ask things like the economy and about policy

    why do they stick with personalities

    surley people are interested in for example
    are you happy with the econonmy are you glad interest rates are low

    i am so so sick of questions about rudd,

  • 5
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    ….

  • 6
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    so the av
    is around 51/ 47.5

  • 7
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    why do they stick with personalities

    That’s like asking why all the top rated TV programs are pitched to total imbeciles fixated on personality and trivia?

  • 8
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    More good news

    @clusterstock: NATE SILVER: Obama’s Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit 85% by @hblodget http://t.co/eWl5YVXV

    Good poll from Galaxy. To me it shows the Labor gains are not the shooting star kind. They will stick.

  • 9
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    “@bencubby: Sad to hear that @GMegalogenis is taking redundancy from the Oz. A commentator whose views i really respect.”

  • 10
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    I love the sportsbet odds on the US election

    Democrats 1.22
    Republicans 4.33

    But the bit that made me really laugh..

    Any other 61.00

    !! :D

  • 11
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    The real question is whether Labor will clear 50/50 on the actual trend, or will the trend flatten out before it gets there?

  • 12
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Can we hope to dream ML? 60/29 is getting hard to dismiss lightly.

  • 13
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    cud

    I think Labor has to go up. Abbott is not offering alternatives

  • 14
    Paddy O
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    What was Galaxy’s form at the last election?

  • 15
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    of couse not
    this keeps abbott afloat

    dont be so pessimistic.

    its just the trend do the average,
    ask william what the last poll was re galaxy tried to find it
    but could not,
    guytuar is right if you have polls that up very quickly
    thats not good. like the athlete in the olympics who goes out to soon, only to lose the race. slowly up is
    more solid i think

  • 16
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    I wonder what ML thinks about the notion that Turnbull is hated inside his party and can never win a leadership ballot? :)

  • 17
    Leroy
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    The trend was about 52-48 before this poll, according to Possum, so this is slightly above that. I think that about where we still are. We sure aren’t at 50-50, but plenty of time to get over that line.

  • 18
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    guytaur,

    I think someone recently wrote that Labor has recovered primarily not because Labor is liked but people are really starting to think twice about Abbott personally.

    Having said that, I think unfortunately for Labor to start climbing into positive territory it means a lot of voters reversing their negative ideas about Labor.

    - terrible, ineffective, minority government..
    - what about the batts, BER.. waste.. waste..
    - debt.. debt.. debt..

    etc

  • 19
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    david a lot of labor people would also say thar re turnbull like liberals say rudd,
    i can never see the purpose in asking old fashioned
    in the past questions,
    those voters may think its a good answer for what ever reason
    but the party are the ones who decide, and we know what they have decided re rudd, and suspect it the same with the libs, i would say its joe or no one

  • 20
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    cud

    Turnbull will win the leadership when the right thinks they can hand him a poison chalice of losing an election so he has to resign after the election. This they may just do when they concede to themselves they cannot win an election and should save the furniture.

  • 21
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    Democrats 1.22
    Republicans 4.33

    There are nuts in the US who sayt the polls are rigged in favour of Obama. We should invite them to follow their insight. Think how much you’ll be able to laugh at us when your guy not only wins, but you clean up on the bookies!

    There’s their chance to put up or shut up.

  • 22
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for 2 years now. Labor needs to go out clobber a bunch of bad ideas. It needs to hire more people to get out there and communicate. It needs more real advertising.

    It needs to push the fact that its been a good economic manager.

    It needs to do things like demonstrate that the pink bats program was a success.

    It needs to promote the BER more.

    It needs to remind people why the stimulus worked so well.

    It needs to explain to more people why the renewable energy development corporation is such a good idea.

    etc.. etc..

  • 23
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    cud

    There was an essential recently that asked about economic managers. The answers showed that Labor was regarded as better economic managers despite not expected to get a surplus.
    The media has done too good a job of calling it a political surplus.
    More votes will move to Labor with a better economic manager tag. That means people may not like Labor but will still vote for them to save the economy. What the Coaliton has relied on for the last decade until the recent trashing of the reputation with budget black holes and auditors showing very dubious costings of policy,

  • 24
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    cud chewer dont get what you mean
    unfortunaltley, what that mean

    come on those old chest nuts where nearly two years ago
    now.the carbon tax is every nearly taken for granted

    debt what bloody debt.
    gfc.

    excuse me but we have come from being 15/20 behind
    i think from memory,, so alot of people have actuly forgotten about your list.
    we have only just started to climb this time 6 weeks ago
    i think we where still 10/12 behind
    now the av. is around 4

  • 25
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    cud chewer dont get what you mean
    unfortunaltley, what that mean

    come on those old chest nuts where nearly two years ago
    now.the carbon tax is every nearly taken for granted

    debt what bloody debt.
    gfc.

    excuse me but we have come from being 15/20 behind
    i think from memory,, so alot of people have actuly forgotten about your list.
    we have only just started to climb this time 6 weeks ago
    i think we where still 10/12 behind
    now the av. is around 4

  • 26
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    The last time Turnbull was involved in a leadership spill he lost by one vote which should mean he has more support within the Liberals than Rudd has within Labor.

  • 27
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    guytaur,

    But the right are so dishonest do you think they’d ever concede, even to themselves, that they were going to lose?

    I think Turnbull knows his best chances are in seeing Abbott win and then taking over when its demonstrated that Abbott has utterly no idea of policy.

  • 28
    Paddy O
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Fran the bookies are part of the democratic-leaning elites standing in Gods way!

  • 29
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    davidwh,

    Since then we’ve had an election and a lot of Liberal back benchers who feel they owe their job to Abbott.

    Don’t forget also, that like the Labor spill this isn’t all to do with common sense or what’s best for the Party. With the Liberals there are a fair few who are outright climate deniers who hate Turnbull with a passion. Can’t see them going down without a fight.

  • 30
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    cud

    Yes with the right anything is possible. However I do not think they are that out of touch with reality. Just look at Nikki Savva comments on Insiders. A definite warning shot for Abbott on Leadership in that interview.

  • 31
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    chud disagree yes good manager of course, the budget surplus will speak for its self
    but dont livein the past with reminding about
    bats and old stuff, we have moved on to NDIS
    the new dental scheme, and higher pensions, pensions a\have never been this good ever also 18 before your taxec
    school bonus the libs will kill off
    the FUTURE POLICIES ARE NOW WHAT people will think about not the past. they live their schools and know what thats all about its up coming policies i for one are really hanging out for the new dental scheme should of been in years ago, the liberals have nothing to offer

  • 32
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    my say,

    I’m merely reporting what I hear. Especially in the context where I’m arguing for the NBN and a lot of people will go “yes, I Like it, but.. Labor.. ” and then go on to quote the same things.. waste.. BER.. batts.. And of course if you’re dealing with a Liberal tragic then its the shopping list of beat ups like cattle exports.

  • 33
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    I am listening to News Radio. BBC World Have Your Say interviewing random Americans in Battleground states. Very interesting.

  • 34
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Simon Benson written article for the DT, putting all the spin you’d expect on the poll

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/poll-shows-julia-gillard-and-tony-abbott-in-race-to-the-bottom/story-e6freuy9-1226510208311

    Poll shows Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott in race to the bottom
    SIMON BENSON NATIONAL POLITICAL EDITOR
    The Daily Telegraph
    November 05, 2012 12:00AM

  • 35
    Paddy O
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Most commentators missed the real news of last week and that was Labor’s change of rhetoric on the surplus. They have given themselves room to move on economic policy. If the world economy grows its good they’ll get a surplus. If it tanks they go into stimulus with the opposition stuck on the austerity message. The trap is set!

  • 36
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Cud chewer I know :) but I still dream

  • 37
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    David the libs have changed so much since turnbull
    one does not recognise the party from nelsons time

    i seem to remmeber during in his time even sensible policy questions where ask in question time.
    since abbott they all seem to have changed.

    m t would he be able to pull them all in to line
    one vote is not much yes, but with Julia so many votes in front that says leadership and respect to me

    Mt seems lost on the back bench just looks so unhappy

  • 38
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    my say,

    Being a blind pensioner myself, I can tell you that Rudd made a huge difference for people like me. But sadly its not a vote winner.

    I agree that future policies are where its at. But people won’t listen to those, or at least will hear the Liberals go “where does the money come from”. And the reason why people don’t listen is all the Daily Telegraph/Australian beat ups.

    Remember where Rudd started going south in the polls was precisely when the media started scoring hits over pink bats. A lot of people subconsciously still keep that in their heads as true. That’s why they’re not listening now.

  • 39
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    Paddy that has been happening for a while but I do t share your confidence that people will fall for it. Both sides have wedged themselves on a surplus.

  • 40
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    cud i suppose its who you mix with then i dont strike that attitiude at all as i often say i want to know what electorates these polls are done in
    still say people say those things to convince themselves

    would the average person in the street turn their backs on a dental scheme and higher pensions
    i think not

  • 41
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    i m sorry to hear your vision impared, i did not know that,

    the pensions where not actully rudds doing its
    now since the carbon price compensation, and i beleive
    we are in for another rise in march, abbott has said
    he will take the compensation back labor must say this every
    day they can,

    i have days when i fear the worst but coming from that
    15/18 behind makes me think a hell of a lot of people have not woken up
    we need to wake, them just another million or so lol
    and remmeber NO one ever gets to ask a person with a mobile

  • 42
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Brad McCoy ‏@brad_mc_coy

    @TheKouk: @JoeHockey Summary: Labor’s $96bn debt was actually $56bn, which Howard paid off simply by selling $72bn of public assets
    Retweeted by Craig Emerson MP

  • 43
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    i m sorry to hear your vision impared, i did not know that,

    the pensions where not actully rudds doing its
    now since the carbon price compensation, and i beleive
    we are in for another rise in march, abbott has said
    he will take the compensation back labor must say this every …..
    day they can,

    i have days when i fear the worst but coming from that
    15/18 behind makes me think a hell of a lot of people have not woken up
    we need to wake, them just another million or so lol
    and remmeber NO one ever gets to ask a person with a mobile

  • 44
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Another factor for the future in Wester Sydney has been the damage done to Alan Jones and his credibility. Not just the loss of advertising, but the fact checker preventing hate campaigns getting off the ground. Remember the Juliar nickname was coined and promoted by Jones. With fact checker not possible.

    I must admit I laughed when Fran relayed the surreal experience

  • 45
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    People were asked about Rudd’s removal, but I doubt that’s as much of a factor any more in how they are ‘voting’. I note the gap is falling between Rudd & Gillard, I expect it will fall further in a year. I also expect DT will continue to ask “do you believe” questions right up to the election, and drawing inaccurate conclusons from it.

  • 46
    Paddy O
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    David, thus I think whoever wins the economic argument in the next year wins the election. Labor has fought back well to be competitive and neutralise the personal politics but as iron chef says ” let the battle begin”.

  • 47
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    coming from that
    15/18 behind makes me think a hell of a lot of people have NOW / CORRECTION woken up

  • 48
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    coming from that
    15/18 behind makes me think a hell of a lot of people have NOW / CORRECTION woken up

  • 49
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    @Paddy O/46

    Of course there is still lots of work to do, and the Politicians job is don’t stop – as long as they hold the title that they were given (under oath I might add).

  • 50
    rishane
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    An interesting stat out of the Rudd/Gillard question:

    @GhostWhoVotes #Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 57 (+18) Rudd 39 (-14) #auspol

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