tip off

Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition

A lot has happened since Galaxy’s last federal poll in mid-June – enough on this evidence to have lifted Labor three points, while still leaving them well short of the two-party parity recorded by Newspoll. Tony Abbott also cops the troubling finding that even Coalition voters now prefer Malcolm Turnbull.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.

The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).

UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.

Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.

SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES
October 27, 2012

					#	%	Swing	2PP	%
Alex Greenwich (Independent)		17,687	47.3%		21,283	63.7%
Shayne Mallard (Liberal)		11,543	30.9%	+5.3%	12,120	36.3%
Chris Harris (Greens)			6,616	17.7%	+4.9%
Glenn Wall (Independent)		825	2.2%
Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic)	724	1.9%	+0.8%
Labor							-11.3%

Formal					37,395	97.2%	-0.6%
Informal				1,062	2.8%	+0.6%
Enrolment/Turnout			61,428	62.6%	-21.3%

Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION
October 20, 2012

				Seats	#	%	Swing
Liberal				8 (+2)	86,032	38.9%	+7.3%
Labor				8 (+1)	85,991	38.9%	+1.5%
Greens				1 (-3)	23,773	10.7%	-4.9%
Others				0 (-)	25,376	11.5%	-3.9%

Formal					221,172	96.5%	+0.3%
Informal				7,953	3.5%	-0.3%
Enrolment/Turnout			256,702	89.3%	-1.1%

Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.

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  • 101
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Calling for #LibSpill among #MSMhacks are getting louder – Absent Hockey will be front and centre if Abbott falters – http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/absent-hockey-will-be-front-and-centre-if-abbott-falters-20121104-28rzt.html#ixzz2BHyitrnm

  • 102
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    when i was doing my little average last night

    realised william does not put the MORGAN
    polls at the side, why is that please william

  • 103
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    so om are talking up joe not MT
    why is that

  • 104
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Remember at one time when USA economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. Now USA catches cold, the world just farts louder

  • 105
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Good Morning My say, how are you going?

  • 106
    castle
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    libtweeta on 24

    cheery at private economics firm saying will be large deficit instead of labor surplus.

    indignant at smh article treasury says Abbotts taxes will cost businesses.

    goooooooooo team

  • 107
    dave
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    Where is mega headed? Was he pushed ? Surely not.

  • 108
    dave
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    The Finnigans@104


    Remember at one time when USA economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. Now USA catches cold, the world just farts louder

    China's leadership transition is being eyed as a catalyst for a reversal of fortune for Australia's mid-tier miners, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' Aussie Mine 2012 report.

    The report highlighted the combined market capitalisation of the nation's 50 mid-tier miners declined 31 per cent to $51.8 billion, significantly lower than its March 2011 peak of $75.3 billion.

    "The new leaders will move to quickly gain the support of the Chinese people and meeting economic growth commitments will play a key role in establishing their own legacy," the report said.

    "With massive cash reserves at its disposal and space for monetary policy stimulus, the Chinese government has the capacity to stimulate demand as required."

    Full article -

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Chinese-leadership-change-to-reverse-miners-fortun-pd20121105-ZQRNT?OpenDocument&src=hp4

    also a pdf of the full PWC report.

  • 109
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    “so om are talking up joe not MT
    why is that”

    I think that Malcolm Turnbull is just too ‘liberal’ for today’s Liberal Party, which these days is basically a right wing party. While economically Turnbull is a good fit with the Liberals, in fact a better fit than the populist Abbott, on social issues, climate change, the constitution and human rights he is at odds with the predominantly conservative outlook of most of the Parliamentary party and the Liberal base. Joe Hockey is a much better fit and would be a compromise candidate should Abbott fall over.

  • 110
    my say
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    i note the Pm amounst labor voters is more popular thanKR. well. just read centre s post.

    well in that case how could the trust thing be
    anything to do with this,

    as we often say if i was ask and i was lib and not political
    i would sat turnbull, also.

  • 111
    C@tmomma
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Good Morning Birthday Bludgers & Assorted Others! :)

    I’m on board with Laocoon:
    How ABCNewsRadio’s editorial policy justifies the lead “news” story being a private sector forecast of the budget deficit to be known in about 9 months time, is beyond me.

    Didn’t someone say once that Access Economics do these ‘forecasts’ in order to keep their public profile high and to bring more business in for their enterprise?

    Just think about all the soft advertising they’ll get all day today. “Deloitte Access Economics…Deloitte Access Economics…”, all the live long day. And especially on the ABC with it’s A/B audience demographic that outfits like DAE want to target for new business. And the ABC appear ready and willing to fall for it every time due to the content poor paradigm that an organisation that needs to run 24/7 works under these days.

    Just like the polls, it’s all just idle speculation at the moment how things will go one way or the other, but especially wrt the Budget.

    Anyone who has run a business will know that cash flow is a spasmodic thing. Some quarters are better than others. Which is why you take stock once a year and do the figures that count.

    Now, as was pointed out over the weekend with the MRRT, the Mining Companies have got in for their chop early as far as writing down their tax burden as a function of investment in starting up projects. However, they can only do it once. So for the next 3 quarters they have to put up the hard currency and deposit it in the government coffers.

    Not to mention a couple of other facts. Firstly, the Finance commentator on NewsRadio this morning predicted that Commodity Prices will more likely than not go up rather than down going forward. So, chance of revenue increasing via MRRT for the government, as well as Company Tax.

    Also, not one of these financial clairvoyants, like Chris Richardson, ever mentions the sleeper source of revenue whose prices and yields are up spectacularly this year, that being agricultural commodities like Wheat. So the government will be looking for increased revenue from that source.

    So, really, all I can conclude is that Chris Richardson is suffering from Premature Ecspeculation. :)

  • 112
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    My latest photoessay on why @TurnbullMalcolm 60% @TonyAbbottMHR 29% – http://twitpic.com/bae9wd/full

  • 113
    C@tmomma
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    I hope Big George Megalogenis has been nabbed by Tim Gartrell’s new enterprise, like he did with Misha Shubert.

    It’s the way of the future as I see it. Boutique Think Tanks with high-powered communicators on board who provide quality analysis and are able to take their place on forums, which are vodcast, plus write books.

    Who needs to grind out copy on the treadmill for a mass market anymore when the market is splintering?

  • 114
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    ABC NewsRadio ‏@ABC_NewsRadio
    Shadow Finance minister endorses claim of a looming deficit but rejects other findings by Access...(audio) http://bit.ly/TDWCIC #auspol
    8:18 AM - 5 Nov 12

  • 115
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    Down at the local supermarket the DT headline is:

    RUDD ON HER HANDS.

    Get it? Rudd? Blood?

    Oh, those wags at the Tele…

  • 116
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    Re Galaxy:

    Their website is a bit sparse. They don’t appear to provide access to any bar their three most recent polls, state or federal. And the current one is not up yet. I’m sure they can be accessed in other ways, but not direct from the Galaxy website.

    I’m pretty sure they nailed one of the elections – might have been 2007, could even have been 2004, the first year they were out in the field. For a long time they hung their reputation on that.

    What I remember of them while Howard was PM was that they were wheeled out to give a glowing poll result just when Howard was flagging a bit. Galaxy always seemed to be a couple of points to the right of the other pollsters, and then swung into line with them during the campaign.

    It looks to me as if this latest one is designed to test the waters on the Gillard ‘trust’ issue and check to see whether Ruddstoration! still has any potency. And based on the results they’re going to zero in on trust.

    To my mind, that’s why Bishop is going so hard on the S&G stuff. Between that and the what-really-happened-in-2010? beat-up, they can probably muddy the waters on Gillard’s credibility somewhat effectively.

    Their trouble is, you can’t really make it work unless you put a cleanskin up against her. Given the motley crew on the opposition benches – Turnbull’s the likeliest to appeal to the masses and he’s weighed down by Utegate – it’s a very hard job for them. I’m not even sure they’ll drag Gillard down all that much. And it’s such old news.

    The real news out of this poll is that Abbott is no longer supported by Coalition voters.

  • 117
    Von Kirsdarke
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    I feel rather ashamed that I ever admired Putin.

    When I first got energized into reading the foreign news in 2006-2008, it just felt good to see someone strong enough to stand up to that warmongering neocon George Bush.

    Now that Bush is gone, Putin’s just going around being a horrible right-wing dictator. He’s passed internet censorship laws worse than Conroy’s blacklist (thank cripes Labor never went through with that), disrupting opposition groups by threatening them or putting them in jail, and now Russia seems to be in the grip of happily throwing up ultraconservative laws.

    Anti-homosexual violence is rife and the governments are taking away rights, bit by bit. It’s somewhat sickening to read about.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/04/gang-attack-russia-gay

  • 118
    C@tmomma
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    The Finnigans@112,
    You are a norty dolphin! :D

    Actually, that photo of Abbott also shows that he is probably getting injections of Juvederm into his cheek area in order to stop the sunken look that comes as you age and exercise rabidly. You can see it clearly as a little round apple under his eye, quite well-delineated.

    I saw how they do it for women of the same age on a show called ‘The Doctors’, which was playing on the Waiting Room TV when I was down at Westmead Dental Hospital with #2 Son recently.

    What they do is lay you down on a reclining chair, get a large needle full of the stuff, open your mouth and inject it into your cheek area from a point above your molars. They can also do it inside out around your lip area if you have lots of wrinkles or deep crevices.

    So, someone as concerned with the image they project to the public as Mr Abbott and his handlers are, can simply disappear for a few hours and come back ‘refreshed’ and ready to go again. :)

  • 119
    confessions
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Morning all.

    Christopher Kenny ‏@_ChrisKenny
    Now token moderate @GMegalogenis is leaving, we'll have a proper right wing paper at The @australian. Fair and balanced.

    What a prat!

  • 120
    C@tmomma
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    Aguirre@116,
    So what you’re saying is that Galaxy is shaping up as an Australian, poor-man’s Rasmussen? :)

  • 121
    confessions
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    I’m pleased to see pollsters finally asking preferred Liberal leader questions now. And MT leading Abbott even among Liberal voters is telling: nobody likes Abbott, not even his own mob.

  • 122
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    Didn’t someone say once that Access Economics do these ‘forecasts’ in order to keep their public profile high and to bring more business in for their enterprise?

    Yep.

    And nearly always wrong.

  • 123
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    Christopher Kenny ‏@_ChrisKenny
    Now token moderate @GMegalogenis is leaving, we'll have a proper right wing paper at The @australian. Fair and balanced.

    What a prat!

    Not the real Chris Kenny, I suspect. He has a “_” before the name.

  • 124
    C@tmomma
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    confessions,
    Now that George Megalogenis is leaving The Australian there will be absolutely no reason to read it ever again! It can then change it’s masthead motto to:
    ‘The Australian: Home of the Cranks and Crackpots at the Heart of the Right Wing Nation’ :D

  • 125
    dave
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    confessions@121


    I’m pleased to see pollsters finally asking preferred Liberal leader questions now. And MT leading Abbott even among Liberal voters is telling: nobody likes Abbott, not even his own mob.

    Well he has done Margie, then the girls. The family dog and cat must be next for a multi page multi newscorp stable of articles.

  • 126
    confessions
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    BB:

    It’s hard to tell with Chris Kenny….

  • 127
    confessions
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    C@t:

    I rarely read it now, just Mega and Mumble. If I’m in a cafe which has the weekend OO for customers, I’ll read the magazine, never the paper itself.

  • 128
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    Han Suyin died at 95. Love indeed is ‘A Many-Splendoured Thing” Her books on China are a great read – http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/han-suyin-chinese-born-author-of-a-many-splendoured-thing-dies-at-95/2012/11/04/55d11efe-e887-11e0-9660-be84fb24c979_story.html

  • 129
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    C@tmomma:

    I think they’ve always been that. I remember this being a bit of a topic in their early days – Who are they? What are they up to? Why do we now have two companies doing polling for News Ltd papers? That sort of thing. And with them consistently coming up with positive news for Howard, it just seemed a bit suss.

    Galaxy never really got a foothold though. They don’t do federal polling enough for that.

    My gut feeling is they’re in the MOE, but maybe just a bit high. That poll is confirmation to me that the real figures are around 51-52% for the Coalition.

  • 130
    confessions
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore
    Struggling with the concept of why anyone should care who newspapers endorse in election campaigns. Seems a relic of a past age.

  • 131
    Andrew
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    So, Simon Benson is what passes for an experienced journalist these days?

    How can a massive improvement in the PM’s support amongst Labor supporters and a turnaround against Abbott v Turnbull amongst coalition supporters, be equally bad?

    Let alone the numerical disparity; 15 % v 31 % is over DOUBLE

    Simon’s analysis would not pass a high school politics essay

  • 132
    rosemour
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    Had lunch yesterday with a well positioned political buddy who opined that if the tories go with Turnbull the coalition will romp in next year.
    Had to agree.
    But then, that’s been my position for a while.
    Let’s hope Monkey digs in.

  • 133
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    The Australian – The public face of Menzies House”.

  • 134
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Good morning, Bludgers!

    You won’t get a cheery clarion call from me this morning because I am a trifle pissed off.

    I made the mistake of logging into Twitter first and read back on the #Emmoquiz to find out the answer.

    If anyone who is on Twitter cares to go back on the #Emmoquiz timeline, can they please explain to me why the “win” wasn’t awarded to me, given I not only gave the correct answer, I was actually the FIRST person to answer?

    The reason I knew it (or was pretty sure) is because I actually KNOW Tony Zappia. The weightlifting thing was a gimme, but I also knew he was into wrestling.

    The only hesitance in my answer was the way Emmo asked the question. He made it sound like 2 different people. However, you can’t get away from the fact I answered correctly. Framing your answer as a question should still qualify as a win ;-)

    Anyway, now that’s that off my chest, how are we all this fine morning? :D

  • 135
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    Watch the moment Mitt Romney lost the POTUS when #Foxnews tried to proactive & play politics with #Sandy – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxlM3_tN8gw&feature=related

  • 136
    confessions
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    THE Coalition's tax policies will cost Australian businesses $4.57 billion in their first full year of operation, according to the Commonwealth Treasury.

    Prepared as Treasury attempts to come to grips with a suite of Coalition policies yet to be announced, the analysis includes only those to which it has publicly committed. Excluded are policies with a negative but uncertain impact on business, such as winding back the recent increase in the employee tax-free threshold from $6000 to $18,200.

    The three policies identified by Treasury are the Coalition's commitment to impose a 1.5 per cent tax levy on big firms to fund paid parental leave, its decision to axe instant asset writeoff and other tax breaks for small business funded from the carbon tax, and its decision to axe the ability for businesses to "carry back" losses and obtain refunds for tax already paid funded from the mining tax.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbotts-46b-slug-to-business-20121104-28s8t.html#ixzz2BIKhwDhu

    Three policies would hit the budget to the tune of $4b. Just three!

  • 137
    dave
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    US Daylight saving ended yesterday – clocks back one hour.

  • 138
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    Danny, do you want me to take it up with Emmo? :evil:

  • 139
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    Persoanlly,I see the departure of “Mega” from The OZ as on balance,a good thing. It further underlines the reality that The OZ is simply a public address system for the ignorant and unhinged. Mega’s presence at the place was always a tokenistic wave of the hand at the “reality-based community” and now that it has gone, and the specific weight of Shanahan, Kelly, Pearson, Kenny & Sheridan is greater, the paper has embraced what every rational observer long ago knew.

  • 140
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    Three policies would hit the budget to the tune of $4b. Just three!

    As companies figure out how to legitimately dodge Carbon Tax flow-ons (reducing electricity consumption, for example), the compensation policies become ever more valuable, as they go straight to the bottom line.

    Removing them, after firms have beaten the tax, or at least accommodated it and gotten used to working with it, will be seen as a direct increase to their cost of business.

    Expect to see, in the coming months, calls from “business” for Abbott to drop his opposition to the Carbon Tax.

    Just about the only supporters left are the Convoy crackpots and the Grey Nomads… essentially, the 2GB whack-jobs.

    Bedding down the CT is another reason Gillard would be loathe to go to an early election, absent a crisis or the incapacitation of a government marginal seat holder.

    Of course, it’s eminently possible (though rarely considered) that, in the near future, it might be a marginal seat Coalition member who’s incapacitated and triggers a by-election.

    That by-election would then become a referendum on the Hung Parliament. An interesting prospect in any scenario

  • 141
    triton
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    Had lunch yesterday with a well positioned political buddy who opined that if the tories go with Turnbull the coalition will romp in next year.

    I think they’d be dogged by carbon-price internal division. Turnbull would have to turn around on it or they would have to do a complete restart, since Tony’s carbon tax fight would be dead as a dodo and the whole party would lose its credibilty after hammering Labor on it for two years. They’d become a big joke.

  • 142
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    Fran wrote:

    Persoanlly,I see the departure of “Mega” from The OZ as on balance,a good thing. It further underlines the reality that The OZ is simply a public address system for the ignorant and unhinged. Mega’s presence at the place was always a tokenistic wave of the hand at the “reality-based community” and now that it has gone, and the specific weight of Shanahan, Kelly, Pearson, Kenny & Sheridan is greater, the paper has embraced what every rational observer long ago knew.

    Hear, hear.

    There’ll be no restraining them now. Mega was a precious resource for The Australiam.

    Murdoch would have seen him as merely a cost, though, and a pesky one at that.

  • 143
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    I think they’d be dogged by carbon-price internal division. ... They’d become a big joke.

    Don’t underestimate the ability of the 2GB hive-mind to adapt.

  • 144
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    I may have missed something, but I don’t think this Galaxy Poll is in the paper copy of the Herald Sun at all. I note their online article is the Courier mail version (with its “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s support plummets with Malcolm Turnbull preferred as Coalition head” headline), not the longer Daily Telegraph full on front page multi article Benson attack.

    I think this was paid for by DT specifically, its their attempt to stir things up. Courier mail & Advertiser took it, but gave it different spins, don’t think its in the Hobart Mercury.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/poll-shows-julia-gillard-and-tony-abbott-in-race-to-the-bottom/story-e6freuy9-1226510208311

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/voters-turn-their-backs-on-leaders/story-e6frezz0-1226510208270

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/poll-shows-majority-of-voters-prefer-kevin-rudd-and-malcolm-turnbull-rather-than-julia-gillard-and-tony-abbott/story-e6frea6u-1226510194449

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/opposition-leader-tony-abbotts-support-plummets-with-malcolm-turnbull-preferred-as-coalition-head/story-e6freoof-1226510202909

  • 145
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    I think that Turnbull would have to ‘do a Romney’ to become Liberal leader, repudiating his past principles and positions in return for the Liberal leadership. In particular, he would have to make it clear that he’ll go quiet on climate change and not to attempt to implement any meaningful policy to address it, just as he has gone quiet on republicanism.

  • 146
    rosemour
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    let’s see how ‘doing a Romney’ goes tomorrow.

  • 147
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    the Galaxy poll is missing the preferred PM number, and also the leaders net ratings which have been the killer punch for Abbott’s leadership. These numbers show the drag he is on the Coalition vote.

    Only polling (or only revealing?) the JG vs Rudd and Abbott vs Turnbull numbers is either push-polling (or #newscorpse manipulation).

  • 148
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    MegaGeorge has taken voluntary retirement from the Oz in order to write more books. He says he is staying on Twitter because he is a fan, but his blog was sponsored by the Oz so I assume it will disappear.

    Hope he stays as a respected commentator on ABC.

  • 149
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Phil Coorey’s article on the unmamed US diplomat who had something bad to say about PMJG deliberations on the US marines being stationed in Darwin relates to November 2011 when Rudd was still in Cabinet.

    Remarkably, these little kicks in the shin of the PM are still arriving, though are now becoming increasingly stale.

  • 150
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, November 5, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Good Morning

    Happy Birthday Scorpio. :)

    We are now at the business end of the US election and it looks like Romney is gone. The Ryan team has been doing a Palin and leaking what he will do post Romney.

    Access Economics out again. Getting it wrong again. Too much focus on commodity prices and not thinking about what goes up as other parts of China grow. Plus even that is but a blip as China will be back into building and the lull probably has a more to do with leadership change than anything else.

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