tip off

Presidential election minus one day

My tip: Obama to win 303-235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:

I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.

1468
  • 101
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 4:42 am | Permalink

    Did Elvis Presley err when he sang “A Fool Such as I”?

  • 102
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 4:56 am | Permalink

    The full lyric is “Now and then there’s a fool such as I.” It’s incorrect as it stands. You wouldn’t say “Now and then there’s a fool like I.” But you could argue that there is an implied verb after the “I.” “Now and then there’s a fool such as I am” would be correct.

  • 103
    Burgey
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    Was wondering if someone had any idea as to the veracity of the video in this link?

    http://www.back2stonewall.com/2012/11/busted-electronic-voting-machines-videotaped-changing-obama-votes-mitt-romney.html

    I thought maybe Obama’s name might be first as he’s the incumbent, and the video has been doctored or something.

    Thoughts?

  • 104
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    Good morning. We all excited? ;-)

  • 105
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    Casrtey
    YES!!

  • 106
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    I mean “Carey”.

  • 107
    Kirky
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    In Boston, it’s a fiine sunny day here but a bit on the chilly side (4c). What is amazing is the queues – why on earth does it take hours to vote?

    Had dinner with Independent voters last night and say they just can’t vote for Romney and do believe Obama as done a reasonable job given the mess he had to deal with after Bush’s presidency. They were impressed how I understood the US politics and explained our political system which they thought was even more democratic than theirs.

    Karl Rove is predicting Romney with minimum of 285 college votes but I reckon he is on some form of medication.

  • 108
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    Good Morning USA!

    BK, thanks to you and your continual posting of all things US election, I can watch this with at least a bit of an education as to what is going on. A big thank you!

  • 109
    mari
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Just had an email from friends in Penns, just going to vote, big turnout and very hopeful for Obama. Other friends think 300 plus or Obama

  • 110
    frednk
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    William Bowe
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 4:42 am | Permalink

    Did Elvis Presley err when he sang “A Fool Such as I”?

    Is the meaning clear? Does it sound nice? In which case thee answer is no.

    Will it get past the grammar police who try and enforce rules made up in the 19th century by people that wanted english to be latin, who knows, who care. To begin with latin is a dead language, further, the grammar police never made millions singing poems.

  • 111
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    The Hourly Guide Electoral College Closing Times

    ... guide to the closing times of the polls in assorted East to West states, together with their respective seats in the electoral college, although it is likely that long before California polling is even concluded the next president will already be known.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-06/state-dismissed-hourly-guide-tonights-electoral-college-closing-times

  • 112
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    For Australians, here are the times that state polls close per state (in Australian Eastern Daylight Time)

    11:00 AM – Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

    11:30 AM – North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

    12:00 PM – Alabama, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee

    12:30 PM – Arkansas

    1:00 PM – Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

    2:00 PM – Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

    3:00 PM – California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington

    5:00 PM – Alaska

  • 113
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    Good morning Kidette
    The US political process is, to us, a strange one. I well remember experiencing election night 2000 in Boston. It was at that time that my interest was kindled and I have followed it assiduously ever since. We “gatecrashed” Teddy Kennedy’s post election party and got talking to all manners of people.
    It never ceases to amaze me how they can tolerate such pathetic, disparate, uncoordinated voting processes.
    I will be sitting on the count all day today.

  • 114
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    BK,

    I was quite surprised by the electoral process. I would have figured they’d have a similar set up to us. It came as a complete shock as to how it hangs together.

    Doesn’t exactly engender confidence in the result!

  • 115
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    BK,

    The Teddy after party would have been interesting in itself!

  • 116
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Kidette
    Voting methodologies and oversight vary tremendously from state to state, county to county, The oversight is often of a very partisan nature.
    In Australia we are blessed with the AEC whose conduct, within legislated bounds, is exemplary.

  • 117
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    Kidette
    It was quite funny. I was hosting a visit of 15 South Australian manufacturing business representatives to a Manufacturing Excellence conference there and at Teddy’s event some of us were interviewed by one of the TV networks.
    Later, in the bar of the Marriott Hotel I did manage to get into an argument with a Repug after I eschewed their values – and this was before the rise of the Tea Party!

  • 118
    castle
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    big turnout and very hopeful for Obama. Other friends think 300 plus or Obama

    what is surprising to me is the old media calling it a cliff hanger too close to call whilst the new media is calling a clear win to Obama.

    why the difference,
    is it bias in the om,
    are they using different polling results,
    don’t they have people who can interpret polling correctly
    are they doing it to get people to follow coverage they wouldn’t do if it was not a cliffhanger (cry wolf too often and you will eventually get ignored)

    be interesting to see who is right, other interest of US elections is post vote polling showing who people voted for why and religous affiliations and attendence.

    last one i looked at in 2008 showed yanks not as religous as we are led to believe and are more critical less afraid and more prepared to act on their religous organisations

  • 119
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    It never ceases to amaze me how they can tolerate such pathetic, disparate, uncoordinated voting processes.
    I will be sitting on the count all day today.

    Very true, BK. Not everyone understands that we have an excellent system through the independence of the AEC.

    The US system seems to suffer through being in the hands of states and counties. Historically they have been misused to defend privilege, finding excuses to bar blacks, the poor and ex-offenders from voting.

    Remnants of these abusers still survive, as we have seen by the actions of Florida Governor Scott. Florida fiddles, via Kate Graham and Brother Jeb, gave us Dubya in 2000.

  • 120
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    The correct use of English pronoun cases has nothing to do with either Latin or “grammar police”. Language is how we communicate. It has rules so that we understand each other clearly. If you say “him gave the book to I”, that is not just ungrammatical but unclear, and therefore subverts the purpose of language.

  • 121
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    BK,

    Hahahaha! I would have paid to have seen that.

    I was having a look at the electoral states in the U.S. and those middle states are strong Romney states but when you assess the demography of those states against Romney’s policies, it stuns me that the support is so strong for him as his policies will actually hurt them badly.

  • 122
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    what is surprising to me is the old media calling it a cliff hanger too close to call whilst the new media is calling a clear win to Obama.

    why the difference?

    Because (a) they have a vested interest in elections being close, and (b) they are afraid of being accused of bias if they say “X is clearly going to win this election.” Saying “it’s too close to call” sounds like an informed report, but it’s just cowardice and ass-protection most of the time.

  • 123
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    I have been listening to commentary from the US. Not one is calling the election for Obama. Even the sports commentators reporting in US sports, who have been asked on our local sports station, as to their predictions, are calling the election for Romney!!! It is apparently too close to call, and the momentum is with Romney. Go figure!!!

  • 124
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    SK
    Someone else commented on that recently. The Appalachian and mid-Western states, and the Deep South for that matter are deep red while being very poor.

    Something like that would be very rare in Australia, albeit maybe Joh’s Nationals supporters and some followers of Hanson and Katter came close. Tory-voting impoverished people seems very strange, however.

    The explanation given then (about the US) was that the Church in its various forms plays a much bigger role in these peoples lives, and that most from conventional baptist-protestant to wacky fundamentalist were very conservative. Apparently that’s why abortion can still strike a chord with so many through those regions.

    I don’t know enough of the US to dispute this, but it could be so.

  • 125
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    Topic for discussion while we wait: did Gov Christie deliberately sabotage Romney’s campaign so he can run in 2016?

  • 126
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    GD,

    The church connection makes sense. But seems such a shame that people can be so readily persuaded to vote against their own interests.

  • 127
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    Psephos
    I suspect Christie has formed the opinion that Romney was already “gorn” and that his own standing as Governor would be enhanced by being seen to be doing a good job on Sandy with Obama.

  • 128
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Kidette, if Americans voted in accord with their own class interests, the Democrats would win every election. The Republicans ONLY win elections by persuading low-income, low-education whites to vote for them by manipulating their fears, mainly racial and religious fears but now also sexuality and gender fears.

  • 129
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    The electoral process – dodginess exposed: http://en.avaaz.org/1042/voter-suppression-us-election-republican-tea-party-democrat?utm_source=twitter_avaaz3&utm_medium=social_media&utm_campaign=us-elections

  • 130
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    BK, but Christie must know that now he will be severely scapegoated for Romney’s loss. If he wants the nomination in 2016 it seems a strange course to follow.

  • 131
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Psephos,

    True, but very sad.

  • 132
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    I think one of the predictions we should be making today is of Chris Christie’s future.

    One of his biggest political obstacles is probably going to be his own party now.

    His self-promoting keynote address and his pretty much helping Obama in the last week will not do him any favours with the party.

  • 133
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    Ha! I didn’t even realise you guys were talking about Christie too! Greater minds etc.

  • 134
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:13 am | Permalink

    Psephos
    Presuming the Republicans lose the presidential race there will probably have to be a shift away from the far right and a search for new policies to attract some of the many demographics who currently won’t have a bar of them.
    I think this is where Christie may try to reinvent himself.

  • 135
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    When can we expect some exit polls? Or have they been banned?

  • 136
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    SK

    Historically, the South was Democrat (albeit very conservative and linked to preserving the racist privilege status quo) until LBJ liberalised things with the Great Society (think Mississippi Burning). Nixon brilliantly exploited this to build up an alliance of vested interests, states rights, and church groups to wrest control.

    Changes are slowly occurring now with the growth of Latino settlers. New Mexico is now blue and others may follow in time.

  • 137
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    When can we expect some exit polls? Or have they been banned?

    Probably close to closing time. See post #112

  • 138
    ShowsOn
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    The vibe on Twitter, for what it’s worth, seems to be that turnout is high.

    That favours Democrats.

  • 139
    ShowsOn
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    When can we expect some exit polls? Or have they been banned?

    I think about 10 AM estern.

  • 140
    stanny
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    My tip
    Very close Romney wins by one state maybe Colorado
    Voter turnout running his way.

  • 141
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    Voter turnout running his way.

    If turnout is high that is NOT running Romney’s way. High turnout means more black and other minority voters, and they will vote overwhelmingly for Obama.

    Romney might carry Colorado but that won’t be enough. If Obama carries Ohio and Virginia, Romney is cooked.

  • 142
    The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    Apparently they have to queue from 2 to 4 hrs in USA to vote. The greatest democracy is also the most creakily antiquated

  • 143
    hugh moran
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    My guess re electoral college vote. 312-226 with the result being known just after 3pm Qld time. Just settling in for the day’s proceedings.

  • 144
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Hugh Moran I hope you realise you are only ONE LETTER away from being Hugh Morgan?

  • 145
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    Finny,

    If I had to wait an hour to vote I’d be bloody annoyed. There is no reason for that kind of wait.

  • 146
    The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    I decided to watch CNN coverage, at least they are reasonably “balanced”, just a slight left of centre, very slight

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    @TelegraphNews: US election 2012: voting machine ‘changes vote for Barack Obama to Mitt Romney’ http://t.co/m9ExRPZN

  • 148
    Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    After watching images of both Obama and Romney, both men look incredibly tired.

  • 149
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    “@YellinCNN: Here’s what Obama aides say their data shows them: turnout high everywhere, no romney surge, no surprises, afr am turnout up in PA and VA.”

  • 150
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    Finns

    Watching the debacle of electoral administration in the US really makes you appreciate our AEC.
    In fact Peter Hartcher wrote a good article about it in todays SMH.

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