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Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

Nielsen’s latest monthly poll result is little changed on last time, with the Coalition gaining two points on the primary vote and one on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).

UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.

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  • 101
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 12:57 am | Permalink

    The States are returning small samples. What confidence of the trend from those samples?

    I guess the trend line would just have wider upper and lower limits. Still reckon they are worth something.

  • 102
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    I still watch the SBS and ABC news on TV. Always interesting to compare their political reporting to what the vastly superior resources of PB put out.

    If I want live stuff then I go to Al Jazeera. Must admit though that ABC24 does try to do live coverage of most Australian political announcements. How else could we enjoy the Travails of Tony?

  • 103
    briefly
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:07 am | Permalink

    [97
    William Bowe

    Zoidlord, the state breakdowns are from small samples, so I’d be careful not to read too much into it. It’s clear enough though that it’s in Queensland that Labor has gained the most ground.}

    WB, considering the national numbers are merely an aggregation of state numbers, how valid are the national numbers? There ARE differences between the States, which may mean sample-based inaccuracies are magnified rather than muted when aggregated into national tallies. (I guess adapting results for such biases is one of the pollster's skills.)

  • 104
    briefly
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:10 am | Permalink

    For example, Newspoll has Labor and LNP equal on 2PPV in Qld. Nielsen has the LNP in front by 4 points. This alone could account for the apparent shift in national 2PPV, yet the MOE must be quite significant. I think these things need more work.

    But not now: bedtime!!

  • 105
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:15 am | Permalink

    briefly,

    If the pollsters stratify their samples correctly then the reliably of the result is directly proportional to the sample sizes.

    The pollsters are trying to estimate Australia-wide and, once you get above a proper sample of 1000 plus, you get a decent indication of what AUSTRALIA thinks.

  • 106
    Paddy O
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:19 am | Permalink

    Queensland a gauge after the ministerial and jobs for the boys scandals

  • 107
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:26 am | Permalink

    Briefly, errors are always going to increase when you break your sample down into smaller sub-samples. But when you add the sub-samples back together, the errors (provided they are genuinely random) will tend to cancel each other out.

  • 108
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:29 am | Permalink

    Thought you would like to know that peccadillo means a “little sin”.

    Might come up in the Royal Commission, once or twice.

  • 109
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:31 am | Permalink

    From Spanish pecado = “sin”.

  • 110
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:42 am | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/data-point/record-of-95-support-for-pms-royal-commission-20121118-29kbe.html

    Not so nasty article from Phillip Coorey.

  • 111
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 1:57 am | Permalink

    More trouble for O’Farrell:
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/school-groups-give-premier-an-f-over-budget-cuts-20121118-29k68.html

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/new-tafe-position-slammed-20121118-29k67.html

  • 112
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 2:00 am | Permalink

    zoidy,

    It’s OK, the feds will pick up the tab, he thinks.

    There is, though, this GST thingy.

  • 113
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 3:05 am | Permalink

    In sum, the political verities of the past year and a half have broken down and been replaced by ambiguities.

    Poor Hartcher, his verities have vanished and he wonders what will happen. Why does he get paid?

  • 114
    sisyphus
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    This is a worry, if true.

    Anonymous claims to have thwarted an attempt by the GOP to divert Ohio votes to another server and direct them back “doctored” in favour of the Romney.

    This would explain Karl Rove’s disbelief in Obama winning Ohio and had a precedent in 2004:

    As Hartmann, noted, in the book "Boss Rove: Inside Karl Rove's Secret Kingdom of Power," author Craig Unger documented how in the 2004 election, "the Ohio vote was counted in Ohio, at 11:13 p.m. at night, the entire Ohio voting system crashed ... a minute later they came up. In that minute, all the votes had been re-routed through a server system in Tennesee, and so all the vote totals flowed back into the system in Ohio, and John Kerry lost, even though the exit polls showed him winning."

    http://www.examiner.com/article/anonymous-claims-to-have-blocked-gop-election-theft-with-ohio-firewall

  • 115
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:00 am | Permalink

    So not much has changed with the polls and no party gets any credit for the RC.

    It’s what I’d expect – people are just saying “About f’ing time we had something done about child abuse” and ignoring other goings on (festive season come on down!).

    To Labors advantage is that it’s very likely that Tones will say one or more very stupid things about the RC. I bet there are numbers of Libs out there who wish his jaw could be wired for the duration.

  • 116
    smssiva
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:10 am | Permalink

    As much as we can say that state issues do not influence federal voting intentions it would appear that the current trend says otherwise. QLD shows an increase to ALP possibly due to Campbell Newman and the Obeid saga could be influencing NSW. I think the reason for the resurrection of S&G affair is to create a perception in NSW voters mind linking corruption slush fund etc with PM and Obeid though the personal approval ratings do not indicate that it is working.

  • 117
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:21 am | Permalink

    “The Coalition is still more likely to win, but the government isn’t so far behind that it’s impossible for it to win,” summarised pollster Nielsen’s John Stirton.

    ————————————————

  • 118
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    John Stirton would know the opinion polls accuracy rate is very appalling to predict the election when the Federal government has only been in office for 2 terms

    the opinions polling only gets it right 1 in every 12 years in the federal election

  • 119
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    Gee whiz. No one saw this coming on PB.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/legal-firms-circle-child-abuse-probe-as-victims-could-swamp-royal-commission/story-fngburq5-1226519200675

  • 120
    Darn
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    The Nielsen poll is obviously still understating the Labor pv by a couple of points if all the other polls are taken into account – which means that the real position is more likely 52-48 or 51-49.

  • 121
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    Julia has grown into the job. She can boast a long list of achievements and increasingly looks like a prime minister. But the sad truth is that people stopped listening a long time ago. Savvy folk like Albo and John Faulkner see Kevin as Labor’s only hope. Maybe they’re right.

  • 122
    joe2
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    I think it is time the PM ripped into him again. I think the challenge should be “Bring one costed policy to the Australian people – just one – make it ‘Direct Action’, and explain why a taxpayer-funded system of bureaucrats and ministers picking winners will be fairer and cheaper than a market based system.

    S.F. so true. Not sure why ‘Direct Action’ has not be shown up properly for the expensive sham it is. Many, even Labor, leave it off the agenda, for Fibs, saying they merely they will not introduce it or that the Carbon Tax will not be dismantled. That helps them off the hook!

    Nail Direct Action to them and start loudly telling all that will listen, not just that the Carbon Price is not hard on the pocket, but that it has been done for a purpose and a noble one at that.

    The climate change message and doing something about it, should be front and centre of this. No point being shy about that, just because Labor are scared they might sound like Greens.

  • 123
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:54 am | Permalink

    NSW is where Labor must do well. And NSW is where is is doing disastrously, care of Obeid and his ilk.

  • 124
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    Darn,

    Possum’s trend analysis has the Neilsen biased to LNP by approximately 0.4% and Newspoll biased to Labor by approximately 0.6% compared to the underlying Pollytrend.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/11/11/trends-the-horserace-and-random-numbers/

  • 125
    BK
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    What with this and the Australian 95% support for a Royal Commission the tide might be turning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/womans-death-shows-risks-of-putting-the-church-before-civil-law-20121118-29k4w.html
    Interesting editorial from the SMH.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-ticking-time-bomb-of-power-20121117-29iqn.html
    If Gillard/Swan could do something about this usury they would receive a huge boost in the polls.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/what-fits-in-your-wallet-and-is-immune-to-interest-rate-cuts-a-credit-card-20121117-29j1k.html
    A rare insight from the IPA’s Chris Berg.

    But right now, the Coalition has to start looking like a government, not a pressure group.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-coalitions-impressionist-platform-paints-the-wrong-picture-20121117-29izq.html
    Peter FitzSimon’s column.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/rules-are-one-for-all-and-all-for-one-20121117-29iq5.html
    Alan Moir is back with a vengeance after a week’s leave!
    http://images.watoday.com.au/2012/11/18/3805261/gal-land-moir_nov19-600×400.jpg
    Pat Campbell sums up Labor’s NSW Right.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2012/11/18/3805765/DB-pat-gale-20121118211530937432-600×400.jpg
    David Rowe on the ME.
    http://www.afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/2012/11/18/Photos/91296352-3166-11e2-bf44-ba85e264d834_gallery19nov12–736×515.jpg

  • 126
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    Maybe they’re right.

    And maybe they’re wrong.

  • 127
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    I don’t think we can read much into this latest Neilson poll, or at least into the change since last month. With a sample of size of 1,400, the margin of error is about 2.7%. All one can read on these results is that between October and November, things have been pretty steady in terms of voting intentions, approval of the two leaders and preferred PM. The trend is more important, and that does show that since mid year the position has moved from a NSW- or even Qld-style Coalition victory to a position where the Coalition would win but Labor is competitive.

  • 128
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    Are people are ignoring news ltd propaganda against Gillard

  • 129
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott’s net approval will always at record low under Labor minus 24% (34-60)

  • 130
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    1-2-3 all together now for #MSMhacks’ chant: Labor’s vote grinds to a halt. to a halt to a halt

  • 131
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    hmmmm, PM will be at ASEAN & EAST ASIA SUMMIT this week. Guess who will popup at #qanda for another “look at moi” + Newspoll week

  • 132
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    One very weird thing about Neilsen is their inclusion of Family First in the tables (and I suspect the choices given to respondents).

    And Family First garners 2% of 1st preferences. Seems odd given the parties non existent representation and public visibility.

  • 133
    BH
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    ove this proclamation, which has been circulating on the net: ”To the Republicans who said they will move to Australia if Obama won: Australia has universal healthcare, compulsory voting, no guns, no death penalty, pro-choice when it comes to contraception, openly gay politicians and judges, evolution is taught in all schools and our female PM is an unmarried atheist. Be sure to declare your pitchforks at Tullamarine.” Makes you proud to be an Australian, doesn’t it?

    Thanks, BK FitzSimons puts things so well. That’s enough to scare any Republican out of his/her wits

  • 134
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    So the polls are still bobbling about 52-48. I think Neilsen’s Coalition PV has gone back to 45 because they were pretty horrible a month ago and that depressed it slightly. Abbott’s been very quiet since then.

    I’d like to see the wording of the Carbon Tax question. My suspicion is that people are still responding negatively to the word ‘tax’, even though most of them are saying they’re not worse off. I also think that if people were asked what they thought of the benefits of acting on carbon pollution they might respond more positively. It’s not all about money in the pocket, there’s also an environmental impact. The question, I suspect, is being framed purely as an economic one.

  • 135
    victoria
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    morning all

    The Labor PV

    Neilsen at 34%
    Newspoll at 36%
    And Essential at 37%

    For the coalition

    Neilsen at 45%
    Newspoll at 43%
    And Essential at 45%

    For the Greens

    Neilsen at 12%
    Newspoll at 10%
    And Essential at 9%

    Will be interesting to see what Newspoll does next week

  • 136
    victoria
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    Aguirre

    Not forgetting that those with incomes under $90,000 received compensation for the carbon price, and will do so again within the next five months.
    Also the education bonus will be paid again in January. $410 per primary student and $820 per secondary student.

  • 137
    victoria
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    This on twitter

    Govt Senator Doug Cameron says claims made against Julia Gillard and Julie Bishop are without evidence, shd stop & are damaging politics.

  • 138
    victoria
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Remember the aenate is sitting this week

  • 139
    victoria
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    Senate

  • 140
    Mad Dog
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    For GG, You rePELLent individual

    http://images.watoday.com.au/2012/11/18/3805261/gal-land-moir_nov19-600×400.jpg

    Put it on your fridge, to remind you why most PBers feel sick when they see a post from you.

  • 141
    joe2
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    I’d like to see the wording of the Carbon Tax question. My suspicion is that people are still responding negatively to the word ‘tax’, even though most of them are saying they’re not worse off. I also think that if people were asked what they thought of the benefits of acting on carbon pollution they might respond more positively. It’s not all about money in the pocket, there’s also an environmental impact. The question, I suspect, is being framed purely as an economic one.

    Great points. Maybe, also, because polling is only considering the hip pocket, on this issue, the pollies have stopped talking about the environmental side.

    The inconsistency of Libs having an expensive Direct Action plan and effectively denying Climate Change, keeps flying under the radar.

  • 142
    Haydn
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    The three per cent who oppose the Royal Commission can be found on Piers Akerman’s blog.

  • 143
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    TT@123

    Good post.

  • 144
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    Like professional mourners, the Oz seems to regard it a duty to wail and mourn and find the unsolvable problem in every act of the government. Sometimes they have to dig very deep, sometimes into the sewer pipes below the ground. But they always find it.

  • 145
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    Savvy folk like Albo and John Faulkner see Kevin as Labor’s only hope.

    No, they don’t.

    I admit, I don’t know what Faulkner thinks. Which sort of suggests that he hasn’t said much on the record, because if he had, I’d probably know.

    I was told at the time of the original challenge that Albo was supporting Rudd because he always, as a matter of course, goes against whatever the NSW Right is doing. Nothing I saw then or since has suggested that that isn’t true.

    His behaviour during the last challenge was scarcely that of someone who believed Rudd was the saviour. He waited until he knew that Rudd didn’t have a chance and then declared his support – and then did so in about the flattest, least flattering method that he could (I mean, basically he said “I support Rudd because he shouldn’t have lost it last time” is not a ringing endorsement of Rudd either as a leader or a person; Albo portrayed his support as an abstract matter of principle).

    Of course, Rudd does have supporters in caucus, enough so that journos can find a few ‘unnamed Labor MPs’ to source their stories; Malcolm doesn’t even have that.

  • 146
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    The Australian seems to be ramping things up a bit on AGW. Two articles today. One is all about how the earth has cooled since 2010. This is kindergarden stuff, even by Oz standards. The two year period is statistically irrelevant. It does not look at ocean heat and if you don’t do that you are ignore where most of the heat is being added.

    Cue Mr Lomberg for the second articl – AGW is real but adaptation is cheaper than prevention. Mr Lomberg does various calculations in billions and trillions. But what alternatives does he consider? Why, the cost of adapting to a few centimeters in sea level rise v cost of adapting to it.

    Were he to be comparing apples to apples, he would compare the cost of prevention to the cost of a 7 metre sea level rise.

    Cardinel Pell and the Editor of The Australian – both in a climate of denial.

  • 147
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    oh oh

  • 148
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    oh oh

  • 149
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Sorry everyone. Forgot to close the italics.

  • 150
    victoria
    Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    The question is Federal Labor is doing worse in NSW due to the NSW right and Obeid and others. Would another leader make any difference to Labor? We saw how Qld was anti Labor up until they got newmaned.

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