tip off

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, barring a very slight improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

After a period of complaints about Newspoll’s volatility, the latest result (related as usual by James J) is all but unchanged on the last: Labor and the Coalition steady on 36% and 43%, with the Greens up one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady on 51-49. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are likewise perfectly unchanged at 37% approval and 52% disapproval, although Tony Abbott is up three points on approval from a dire result last time to 30%, and down two on disapproval to 61%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-32 to 46-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1156.

UPDATE: The Courier-Mail today publishes federal voting intention results from the same Galaxy poll that produced yesterday’s state numbers. It shows Labor making a handy three point gain since the last poll in September at the direct expense of the Coalition, with the two parties at 33% and 46%. However, the Greens are down two points to 8%, which means there is only a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, to 56-44.

The Herald Sun also has a JWS Research automated phone poll survey of 1391 Victorian voters conducted last Wednesday, with better results for the Baillieu government than Newspoll: the Coalition leads 48% to 38% on the primary vote and 52.1-47.9 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote for the second successive week, now at 47%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 36% and 10%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has also gauged support for the National Broadband Network and the Mineral Resources Rent Tax, which was very strong in each case, as well as for “the carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit”. It appears the extra detail in the question elicited stronger than usual support, which was at 46% against 44% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe a Coalition government should appeal it against 37% opposed, and 44% expect they would do so against 32% who don’t. On the question of its impact, “worse than expected” and “not as bad as expected” are both on 26%, with as expected on 36%.

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  • 1
    zoomster
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Hello…anyone here?

  • 2
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    OK. steady as she goes. PMJG Higher satisfaction rating, better PM, and lower dissatisfaction rating. :)

  • 3
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    I’m free!

  • 4
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    If JulieB wants to be the attack dog, she has to have her own credibility challenged. The fact she lives in a glass house is valid, especially as she keeps using the pejorative term “boyfriend” to demean the PMs past relationships.

    There are many more ways to challenge her credibility than demeaning her own relationships. We are better than Liberals, and we can do better than personal smear and innuendo.

  • 5
    Laocoon
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Looks like electorate has started summer vacation now :)

  • 6
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Ok, now I’m fine with Bishop going Gillard. She can keep at it all week as far as I’m concerned.

  • 7
    BK
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    I’m comfortable with that.
    I bet Tone’s not!

  • 8
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Greens primary 11%?

    POPPYCOCK!

  • 9
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    PtMD … Do you have the numbers compared to last poll?

    I get the feeling the great Australian public have switched off politics in readiness for the Xmas break. On balance I sense their baseball bats are poised to strike but they’ll hold back until the new year.

  • 10
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    If the Libs go after Gillard on S&G this week, every Labor MP needs to just hammer home the policy ideas. Repeat repeat repeat. There’s been no leverage in the polls on the ‘scandal’ so the media won’t give it legs much longer.

  • 11
    Brian Mc
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Laocoon’s comment that the electorate has gone on summer vacation is spot on.

    So much effort and mud-throwing by the OM for so little result.

  • 12
    BH
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    I have to admit I am stunned by this poll. Pleasantly stunned :)

    Good one to combat the junk coming in QT tomorrow

  • 13
    Von Kirsdarke
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    This poll makes sense, there’s no real movement as nothing’s really been happening, and yes I do refer to this Slater and Gordon rubbish as ‘nothing’.

    There might be a shift in the next one after the last sitting week of parliament though, depending how that goes.

  • 14
    mari
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:28 pm | PERMALINK
    OK. steady as she goes. PMJG Higher satisfaction rating, better PM, and lower dissatisfaction rating.

    Puffy OK to come over to greener pastures now. All I can say is Baaaa to MSM and LNP

  • 15
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    They threw everything at PM – still cant knock her down 51-49, vbad for Abbott, Peta’s expecting 53-47 & scream “abbott, you fuacking idiot”

  • 16
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Chuckle!

  • 17
    Kinkajou
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Anyone buying the slush fund crap is being counterpointed by folks disgusted by the campaign….over for M Lapin

  • 18
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    BH

    The Libs may want to rethink their strategy.

  • 19
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Ok, with the AWU beat up, and the conga line of shonks dredged up by the OldMedia not shifting the polls 1 iota, what does this tell us?

    Have the scandals jumped the shark?

  • 20
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore,
    Is that a feeling or wishful thinking?

  • 21
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore,

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/11/12/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-2/

  • 22
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    There’s been no leverage in the polls on the ‘scandal’ so the media won’t give it legs much longer.

    You say this as if the daily reportage has some kind of immediate effect on current polling.

    My own view is these matters build over time.

  • 23
    Kinkajou
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Perhaps its saved the total collapse of lib support for a couple of weeks…

  • 24
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Let’s see the way I had previously assessed the true position of the parties:

    - LNP primary 43% to 44%.
    - ALP primary 37% to 38%.
    - Green primary tops 9%.

    You can safely take 2% of the Greens and add them to Labor :cool:

  • 25
    Sohar
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    William says above “Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-33 to 46-32.” – not widened marginally?

  • 26
    Kinkajou
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Time?….Theyve been going at it since August…or since 1995 uf you include Phil Gude

  • 27
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Good way to end the year. No more Newspoll until next year. That 51 to 49 will hang over the Coalitions head spoiling their Christmas.

    This while their approval rating goes down a bit more with the disunity in their side of politics likely to be an ever present simmer.

  • 28
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Let’s see the way I had previously assessed the true position of the parties:

    - LNP primary 43% to 44%.
    - ALP primary 37% to 38%.
    - Green primary tops 9%.

    You can safely take 2% of the Greens and add them to Labor :cool:

    So your going for feelies over the polls, the republicans lost an election doing that.

  • 29
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    sprocket

    No one cares. It’s nearly Christmas.

  • 30
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    A week where they put up #$5000 #Ruddstoration #Malstoration #Margiestoration #Ralphstoration & #BrowneStoration PPM is still 46 to 33 to PM

  • 31
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Guys guys… don’t get too excited! Don’t you know that right now a cadre of Newspoll executives and News Ltd editors are just USING this poll to lull progressives into a false sense of security?

    That’s why they manufactured the AWU scandal. You see this all part of the NWO/Illumanati plot for a one world, Toby Abbott-led government! Wake up!

  • 32
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Frednk

    I was right. I’m two weeks ahead of the polls. Refer to my past comments as all the evidence you need.

    You are fair dinkum kidding if you think the Loons can get 11% at the election.

    Peak Pewny R.I.P.

  • 33
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Imagine if #Newscorpse had released the Wilson Interview on Friday with the headline: “PM did not know” – it would have been 53-47 to Labor

  • 34
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Hopefully, Sauron will be somewhat occupied after next Thursday, 0 CL (the Coming of the Leveson).

  • 35
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    November 25, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    your not going to beleive this i have been looking at realestate for a friend for the last hour and
    the thing dropped out and up came
    this page
    what a laugh no differnt, all their capper
    and by the way mss jb i can remember my first day at work to but dont remmeber what the weather forecast was who the obbs for the day
    but i wore a yellow linen dress and took my cream cardi with me and an umbrella with flowers on it

    of course you remeber your first day at work and
    where you went we where given a tour of the army baracks which at that time was at the back of bureau becauce they had a canteen

    975

    my say

    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    well how about that a

    he he he he

    lol roflingggggggggggggg

    1 …

  • 36
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Re Centre at 24.

    If anything you’d expect a bigger “pick up” by the Greens this week, given that Labor have been doing everything in their power to hand ‘em votes with the cruel crud on the Asylum Seeker front.

  • 37
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    AT
    The only way Abbott would lead a one world gov’t would be as a puppet for roop the snoop, and I don’t mean a string puppet either.

  • 38
    imacca
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    All the beat up and this is the best they’ve got? :)

    Will be interesting to see what the movements are over the next couple of weeks.

    One thing they have managed to do is chase the MDB plan off the news. :( That’s unfortunate as this was a BIG win for the ALP. No-one else has ever been able to do it, and they managed it when there is plenty of water in the system which seemed to make it much more difficult.

    Still, with parliament sitting there will be opportunity for people to compare and contrast. ALP doing policy and governance, Lib/Nats doing dummy spit and smear.

    Come the end of this sitting surely someone in the press will do a “scorecard” for the year. Will be interesting to see.

  • 39
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    PtMD 2012 meme from the Libs has been the world as we know it is about to end. Reality is somewhat different. A couple I know, classic Howard battlers , have just bought themselves a new car. Interest rates very low. Despite the hyperbole from the libs most middlemaustralians are doing ok. This is now showing in the polls.

    The Libs I suspect are getting desperate…. Every trick, line and strategy just doesn’t get momentum, and the alp makes slow steady positive progress. Once this gets traction we’ll see 51-49 become 49-51 in no time at all.

    And Fran Kelly’s prediction on insiders today will be seen for what it is …yet another MSM hack getting the tea leaves very, very wrong.

  • 40
    Dee
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Which poll has proven to be the most credible?

  • 41
    my say
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    said months ago they want a new loto

  • 42
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Sohar
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    William says above “Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-33 to 46-32.” – not widened marginally?

    As the noise is somewhere around 1.5% William was silly putting in the – sign.

  • 43
    BH
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    confessions I think it is valid to know Bishop’s personal history. She has no worries about besmirching the PM’s past. It’s helpful when making judgements as to suitability for office.

  • 44
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    As I have said, for the S&G affair to have any effect, the PM must be found guilty of any wrongdoing, otherwise it could well work in Labor’s favour as the Liberals will appear desperate.

    As for the details of the S&G matter, the voters know jack and don’t give a sh!t :cool:

  • 45
    DisplayName
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Didn’t someone say that the effect of any single event isn’t usually reflected immediately in the polls and that looking at changes (or lack of) from poll to poll is meangingless? I’m sure I read that somewhere, though I may have misunderstood it :P .

  • 46
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    We’re edging closer to the point where the Liberals realise that the mood has changed. People don’t want scare campaigns any more, they don’t want character assassinations, they don’t want smear, they don’t want happy snaps of Abbott with various women, they don’t want “the dirtiest election campaign ever”, they don’t want stunts, they don’t want everything rolled back and they don’t want to be made to feel bad.

    They want policies. They’re heard talk about the Coalition having loads of policies ready to go, and they want to have a look at them. Enough of them are still naive enough to believe the Coalition will come good, but it isn’t going to last much longer.

    The last smear campaign they had available just fell flat on its face. They’ve carefully set it up, they’ve raised expectations over a couple of weeks and then unloaded the big guns on prime time ABC, and Bishop and Abbott had all their lines rehearsed. It was quite nicely arranged, but nobody cares for it. Whatever accusations it was possible to make have been made and underlined. And it hasn’t made a damn bit of difference.

    So, fairly soon now, the Liberals will realise that the mood has indeed changed. And there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth.

  • 47
    mari
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Now how will Dennis S write this up in The Oz, Tony Abbott gains on personal rating, what else can he say???

  • 48
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    William says above “Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-33 to 46-32.” – not widened marginally?

    No, I had the numbers the wrong way around. Corrected.

  • 49
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore,
    I hope you are right, I would love the unhinging that would come at 49-51. The Long Lost MOE will be discovered, that’s for certain!

  • 50
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Frednk

    I was right. I’m two weeks ahead of the polls. Refer to my past comments as all the evidence you need.

    You are fair dinkum kidding if you think the Loons can get 11% at the election.

    Peak Pewny R.I.P.

    Depends I suppose how luny Labor get over boat people.

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