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Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Perth

A small-sample Morgan phone survey features the first published polling data on the AWU slush fund affair.

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Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 523 respondents conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, which have Labor on 36.5% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 8.5%. Morgan’s headline two-party result is 51-49, but this comes from the dubious respondent-allocated preferences measure: the more reliable measure using preferences from the previous election has the Coalition’s lead at 52.5-47.5. This being a phone poll, it should not have the Labor bias associated with Morgan’s face-to-face polling. It also reverses the consistent trend of the face-to-face series in giving Labor the better result on respondent-allocated preferences (I have consistently had grave doubts about the face-to-face polling on this score). However, the poll shows no gap in voting intention between men and women, which perhaps illustrates the difficulties you can get with small samples. The margin of error on the poll is about 4.3%.

Morgan has also taken on the tricky job of framing questions appropriate to the knotty AWU matter. The most useful of these asks if respondents approve or disapprove of Gillard’s response, coming in at 37% and 28% respectively. A question on whether the Prime Minister should resign if “scandal allegations are true” has 43% saying she should against 27% saying she shouldn’t, but this rather overlooks the enormous range of the allegations that might be levelled (had they started a few days later they could simply have asked if respondents agreed with Christopher Pyne). Another question asks whether Gillard “was aware that the AWU ‘slush-fund’ was illegal when she resigned from Slater & Gordon in 1995”, which seems simplistic at best. Thirty-three per cent answered in the affirmative (including 10% of Labor voters and 20% of a tiny sample of Greens voters) against 26% negative, 17% couldn’t say and 24% not aware of the scandal.

There is also an entertaining plethora of questions on preferred party leaders, the chief head-to-head scorelines being Gillard 49 Abbott 36, Turnbull 59 Gillard 31, Gillard 46 Hockey 44, and Turnbull 54 Rudd 38. Not featured: Gillard versus Rudd or Abbott versus Turnbull.

Seat of the week: Perth

The electorate of Perth extends north-eastwards from the city centre to accommodate an area bounded to the south by the Swan River, extending from Mount Lawley and Maylands to Morley and Bassendean. An electorate bearing the name has existed since federation, with the entirety of the metropolitan area having been divided between it and Fremantle until the expansion of parliament in 1949. It then assumed more familiar dimensions, with Swan being drawn into the metropolitan area and Curtin created to accommodate the western suburbs.

Perth was held from its creation until 1922 by James Fowler, first as a Labor member and then as a Liberal and Nationalist following his defection in 1909. It thereafter remained in conservative hands until the Labor landslide of 1943, when it was won by Tom Burke (father of Brian). Burke held the seat until defeated in 1955 by Liberal candidate Fred Chaney Senior, whose son Fred Chaney Junior was a Fraser government minister, Senator and member for Pearce. Chaney was in turn unseated in 1969 by Joe Berinson, who became a junior minister in the Whitlam government and later a state Attorney-General. When the 1975 debacle cost Labor all its WA seats except for Fremantle, Berinson suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of Liberal candidate Ross McLean.

Redistributions in 1977 and 1990 respectively reoriented the seat westwards to the advantage of the Liberals and eastwards to the advantage of Labor. Australian hockey captain Ric Charlesworth was able to gain and hold the seat for Labor in the more difficult conditions after 1983, and Stephen Smith came to a seat with a solid Labor margin when he succeeded Charlesworth in 1993. It continued to trend in Labor’s favour thereafter, remarkably producing a slight positive swing amid the 1996 landslide, and surpassed Fremantle as Labor’s safest WA seat at the 2010 election. However, such has been the party’s progressive malaise in WA over the past decade that the margin has worn down to 5.9%.

Stephen Smith had been an adviser to Paul Keating and a state party secretary before entering parliament, emerging as a senior figure in the Right faction. He was elevated to the front bench after the 1996 defeat, and became Foreign Minister when the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He relinquished this role with displeasure when it was given to Kevin Rudd after the 2010 election, instead being assigned to defence. His desire to return to the foreign ministry was thwarted when Bob Carr was drafted after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership challenge in February 2012. Smith also served as Trade Minister from Julia Gillard’s ascension to the prime ministership in June 2010 until the reshuffle which followed the subsequent election.

A Liberal preselection in June 2012 was won by Darryl Moore, a former mining engineer now involved in “investing in and managing the family’s commercial and industrial real estate portfolio”, ahead of Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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717 comments

717 thoughts on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Perth

  1. Dan Gulberry

    Yay, my electorate.

    Is it still the safest Labor seat in WA?

  2. Dan Gulberry

    Coincidentally, when I lived in Sydney, I lived in Grayndler (Albo’s seat), which correct me if I’m wrong, is the safest Labor seat in Australia.

  3. darkmage

    @Dan Gulberry

    You’re way off. The safest Labor seat in the country is Lalor, Victoria. Julia Gillard’s seat.

  4. briefly

    [7253
    rishane
    Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Hartcher *almost* writes something different than his usual: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-lives-to-fight-another-day-20121130-2amng.html%5D

    His verdict is in two parts: where JG is tough, Abbott is feeble.

    That’s it for Abbott. He is finished. No LOTO can survive for long if they are considered to be weak. He has been widely tagged for his lack of guts. No-one has disputed the call.

    Hockey? or Turnbull? or….some other??

    It won’t make any difference. Labor will win in 2013. There is a good chance the next Liberal PM is not yet even in the Parliament.

  5. Dan Gulberry

    darkmage

    All I remembered were the 2007 results.

    Grayndler TPP:
    Labor 71.19%
    Tories 25.07(margin of 46%)

    Lalor TPP:
    Labor 65.53%
    Tories 34.47% (margin of 31%)

    In 2010 it changed to Lalor having a bigger margin.

  6. Dan Gulberry

    Looking at the wiki entry for Lalor as above, the seat has only been held by three people since 1969.

    Jim Cairns, Barry Jones and Julia Gillard, all of them high profile Labor people.

  7. PatriciaWA

    briefly:

    …..There is a good chance the next Liberal PM is not yet even in the Parliament.

    For the sake of Oz, let’s hope you’re right!

  8. Dan Gulberry

    PatriciaWA@7

    For the sake of Oz, let’s hope you’re right!

    Hear, hear.

  9. William Bowe

    Nate Silver thinks internal polling might be less reliable than published polling, because “even though some of the pollsters are very smart, they’re operating under worse incentives”. For example, it’s not in a campaign’s interests to believe they’ve got no chance, so an incentive exists to produce polling which tells them otherwise.

    http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/29/3706368/watch-this-nate-silver-election-media-poker

  10. joe2

    Who would have thunk, William. And this bit..with that word “context”. And our media believe this their speciality area, ha, ha.

    [news outlets’ desire for exclusivity often prevents them from providing their readers with proper context and all the available data.]

  11. Kevin Bonham

    For those interested in Tasmanian issues, I now believe that free political speech in Tasmania is under significant threat – in the area of comments deemed to knowingly insult, ridicule, offend or humiliate someone based on their political views – as a result of the Anti-Discrimination changes passed in the Lower House recently and which go to the Upper House. I also believe that the Tasmanian Attorney-General, a non-lawyer, has no idea what he’s doing. My latest piece on this including links to relevant Hansard and even a Twitter exachange with the AG (!) may be found here:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/an-open-letter-to-brian-wightman.html

    I expect I will now, for the first time in my life, ask the Legislative Council to reject government legislation.

    On the Morgan Poll, my read is that it shows no evidence of an adverse impact of the AWU saga in the time over which it was taken. The change from previous F2F is explicable by random variation and by method differences and 52.5 is completely within trend. More significant are the findings in the issue-specific surveys – eg that only 43% want Gillard to resign even if the allegations are true – and that is even without it being stated what allegations are being talked about. Plus more voters in favour of Gillard’s response than against it, and 30% not even paying attention. And a new worst Morgan netsat for Abbott (albeit, Morgan poll infrequently) – all up nothing to see here by way of impact, or if anything a whiff of positive for Labor.

    Could all be old news very soon as the Blewitt sister stuff seems quite explosive, and may really hurt the Coalition if it cannot be discredited quickly. Abbott can hardly credibly call for the presumption of innocence for Blewitt when he did not grant it to Gillard. (Of course even Blewitt should be presumed innocent but that should not be any help to Abbott/Bishop).

  12. silentmajority

    Julie Bishop is my local member. I think I might be writing to her and cc to The Subi Post with a list of questions. She writes to me by snail mail often enough asking for my views so she just might get them.

  13. silentmajority

    W. Bowe what electorate are you in?

  14. silentmajority

    Another insight into Ms Bishop.
    I was manning the Floreat PS booth for the ALP last election and City Beach PS booth in 2007.
    Each time Ms Bishop visited when I was there and each time I greeted her with a genuine hello and smile. Both times I got the cold shoulder. She made a bee line for the Lib crowd and was all over them like an asbestos rash.

    In 2010 One of the charming old ladies (about my mothers age) referred to the PM as “That Thing”. Ms Bishop didn’t bat an eyelid and got into an animated discussion with her about how much she appreciated the effort this “Lady” was putting in.
    Such a charming crowd. After that I knew I was on the right side.

  15. billie

    We are all pleased with Kate McClymont’s Walkley Award for “McClymont won best print news report for a story on the Craig Thomson credit card claims that also appeared in The Age,” which was is a total fabrication of evidence according Peter Wicks at Independent Australia and Vex News

    see http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bundle-of-awards-to-fairfax-media-for-top-journalism-20121130-2ammi.html

    discussion of credit cards evidence here
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/craig-thomson-under-the-rain/

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/jacksonville-17-the-wixxy-report/

    all the Independent Australia reports about HSU by Peter Wicks can be found here
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/jacksonville/

  16. billie

    William, I was talking to a person who works in Centrelink who doesn’t trust polling as 90% of welfare recipients no longer have a landline, they use mobiles exclusively and they vote

  17. billie

    Silent Majority, handing out How To Votes at elections can be dangerous. My source of [excellent] home made Christmas cakes, a Liberal lady, won’t supply me after she saw me handing out How To Votes for the Greens. Kelly O’Dwyer gave us a nod. Unfortunately Micheal Danby, in the adjoining electorate, got stuck into the young girls handing out Liberal How To Votes at a small booth

  18. Oakeshott Country

    Danby was obviously poorly advised

  19. Tom Hawkins

    I am so looking forward to Bishop next mentioning the name Blewitt as a trusted source of information. Has Bishop had the hide to speak to the press about anything at all since they found they had been lied to? They won’t forget even if she hides until February. I’m sure JG will remind the House of that fact if the Libs are stupid enough to mention the AWU in QT. By then Blewitt’s disgrace will be in the public domain as there’s no way channel 7 are going to sit on that revelation forever or have another news service claim the scoop.

  20. Aguirre

    I’m only taking two things out of that Mogan poll:

    1. Sample size 523, MOE 4.3%. It’s too small a group and too large a margin of error to make anything out of the 2PP, respondent allocated or otherwise. Best you can say is that it’s around what the other pollsters are saying.

    2. It does, however, confirm something that’s been apparent all along. 24% of the respondents don’t know anything at all about the Gillard/AWU issue. A lot of others don’t seem to have an opinion. The rest are ambivalent, breaking down along party lines.

    The questions are a bit misleading:

    The first is fair enough, just establishing whether people know about it.

    The second is definitely misleading. I’ve been following ths story, and I’m not entirely sure myself whether Gillard left S&G in 1995 because she found out the slush fund was dodgy or not. Nobody’s been charged over it, so the use of the word ‘illegal’ is unnecessarily emotive. At any rate, Gillard said she broke off relations with Wilson as soon as she was aware something dodgy was going on, and that by that time it was already being investigated. Asking people whether they thought she knew is not only a leading question, but it doesn’t get to the heart of the issue anyway.

    The third question is probably just asking whether you approve or disapprove of Gillard. If the question had been ‘do you accept her explanation’ it might have revealed more. It’s gone for a value judgement.

    The fourth operates on an assumption – it’s really just asking whether if someone is guilty of something should there be consequences. You’d expect that to come in strongly for ‘yes’. Besides which, the opposition refuses to articulate any allegations, so asking what happens if Gillard is guilty of these allegations is pointless.

    I don’t know why those questions were framed that way, but they seem designed to create an impression rather than to measure one.

  21. The Finnigans

    @CraigEmersonMP – CHILLING TRUTH: Ralph Blewitt raped his sister – http://www.vexnews.com/2012/11/the-chilling-truth-ralph-blewitt-raped-his-sister/ … – No wonder @JulieBishopMP is running away & hiding

  22. Tom Hawkins

    Is that the real Emerson? Has the story now broken?

  23. poroti

    Meanwgile in pomgolia there were three by elections which saw a good thrashing for the Tories. So bad that “there were renewed Tory calls for an electoral pact with Ukip at the 2015 general election ” .

    [While the Tories were pushed into fifth place in Rotherham and fourth place in Middlesbrough, the Lib Dems suffered an even worse mauling, losing their deposit in Rotherham and Croydon]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-hails-byelection-breakthrough-for-ukip-we-have-established-ourselves-as-the-third-force-in-british-politics-8371067.html

  24. sprocket_

    The Nate Silver interview linked by William earlier is long, but a must view.
    http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/29/3706368/watch-this-nate-silver-election-media-poker

  25. Fran Barlow

    From Carlton’s article:

    [‘Sometimes there are moments when a prime minister must keep faith with their convictions,” snapped yet another scolding editorial in The Australian on Wednesday. Oh dear. Sometimes a leader writer must keep faith with plain English grammar: tautology, singular, plural, that sort of thing.]

    A poor start. Convictions ought to fall witin things that are loosely matters of “faith” making it formally tautological. The leader writer probably intended to assert that Gillard should give effect to her convictions. The “sometimes there are moments” phrase is vacuous journalese, but not poor syntax. The use of “their” however, is not merely the 3rd person plural possessive adjective but also the generic possessive — standing in lieu of he or she and made necessary by the generic “a Prime Minister” which is non-gendered.

    There’s so much wrong with The Australian‘s leader and whole approach, that I wonder why Carlton bothered with this cheap swing. It did seem to work against the general theme of his attack, which was that the matter was a storm in a teacup.

  26. frednk

    [Fran Barlow
    Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    The use of “their” however, is not merely the 3rd person plural possessive adjective but also the generic possessive
    …]

    But the article was directed at a her not a generic. Carlton read it as it was intended.

  27. Fran Barlow

    Fox News figure worries that evidence on climate change may spur policy action:

    “Hard” “Authoritative” Evidence Of Climate Change Begins To Overwhelm Even Fox

    [A new study showing that polar ice is melting faster than before has convinced even Fox’s Stuart Varney, who previously said climate change was a “scientific conspiracy.” The Fox Business host acknowledged that the study, which adds to the extensive body of science showing the threat of manmade climate change, is “hard evidence” from an “authoritative source.”

    The study, published in the journal Science, shows that polar ice sheets are now melting three times faster than they did in the 1990s, contributing to sea level rise. On his Fox Business show, Varney expressed concern that this “hard evidence” of global warming might bolster efforts to address the problem]

  28. frednk

    [The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    @CraigEmersonMP – CHILLING TRUTH: Ralph Blewitt raped his sister – http://www.vexnews.com/2012/11/the-chilling-truth-ralph-blewitt-raped-his-sister/ … – No wonder @JulieBishopMP is running away & hiding]

    Seven news hinted, no doubt because it didn’t want the deformation case, why it could write “sister said’, I don’t know. Vexnews came out and said it, Craig Emerson used it, JB stuck with it.

    Interesting progression.

  29. frednk

    [Tom Hawkins
    Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    no way channel 7 are going to sit on that revelation forever or have another news service claim the scoop.]

    Looks like it goes to Vex News

  30. Aguirre

    “Sometimes there are moments,” reads like a tautology to me. You could remove one or the other and the meaning would remain. At any rate, all Carlton is saying there is that the sentence is messy. “There are moments when a prime minister must keep faith with her convictions,” reads much better. Or even, “There are moments when a prime minister must uphold her convictions.”

  31. Bushfire Bill

    Chris Kenney chucks a tanty.

    [A crucial building block for the government’s spin has been to demand a “smoking gun”. Journalists were revealing facts and asking pertinent questions yet Labor sought to raise the bar, claiming the story wasn’t worthy unless it contained a killer blow.

    Journalists less susceptible to spin were simply interested, as ever, in discovering who, what, when, where and why.]

    Indeed: “Why?”

    [We now know the fraud would not have been possible – knowingly or unknowingly – without Gillard’s assistance incorporating the association in this way and arguing for it in a letter to the West Australian Corporate Affairs Commission.

    We know the official documents describe the association as one thing when its real purpose was to facilitate a union “slush fund”.]

    Not “collusion”, not “aiding and abetting”, not “conspiracy”, but… “assistance”.

    A bloke comes up to his solicitor, who happens to be his girlfriend, and says he’s got a problem with setting up an association. What did he do wrong? The solicitor/girlfriend looks over the forms, reads the letter he received querying the application and realises the registrar wants to be sure it’s not a union trying to incorporate.

    She writes a letter setting the matter straight. It’s not a union. It’s some guys who’ve gotten together to form an association and they want to make it official. Happens all the time.

    The form goes back. The association is registered. She does this all for nix as the client is close to her.

    Let’s sack her for giving “assistance”. And while we’re at it let’s sack all solicitors who carried out their client’s instructions, or every barrister who ever defended a man or woman the jury didn’t believe and found guilty.

    We must have propriety and decency in our national discourse, after all.

    Kenny – after all he writes for the “national newspaper” sees this as a matter of national concern…

    [… the AWU story goes to professional conduct, political transparency, prime ministerial integrity, union corruption and a government’s ability to break the perceived and actual yoke of union domination.

    What political journalist would not be interested? ]

    That’s an awful lot of blood he’s trying to eke out of a very small pebble. A 20 year-old pebble at that. A pebble that was cast upon the waters when the PM was a 30-something young woman doing a favour for a friend.

    Kenney reckons the non-News media are in on the conspiracy. They don’t take his story seriously enough. They cut the PM too much slack.

    He starts out by stating the bleedin’ obvious:

    [Abbott has again been prepared to cloak himself in negativity to inflict this damage.]

    As the PM might say, “Can’t be too hard” for Tony to do that, seeing as he’s turned saying the word “No” into a new genre of performance art. How noble of him to selflessly sacrifice his personal approval rating by continuing on his courageous quest, riding backwards into the sun?

    Chris wants all this to be taken seriously:

    [But to watch much of the coverage out of Canberra this week, most of this has been lost. We have seen simply daily jousting in a contest chosen by the opposition but framed by Labor spin.]

    Oh, the “daily jousting contest” again?

    Would that be the same jousting contest that caused Chris’s newspaper to call for the PM’s resignation because Dennis Shanahan’s “demands” for clarification about Bob Carr were ignored?

    Or perhaps he’s referring to Old Prune Face, Nikki Savva, too preoccupied about the Prime Minister’s ear lobes to write a story on the election campaign?

    Or maybe his colleagues’ obsessions with Ruddstoration? What’s not to love about the non-story of Kevin’s Krazy Komeback?

    No, seriously, what he’s referring to is the momentous events of national importance that devolve down to whether the PM, 20 years ago, wrote a letter, what she said to her partners about it three years later, and why she just doesn’t admit she’s guilty of… something… and resign.

    Chris Kenny has the shits that the rest of the media haven’t covered Slatergate as nastily and excruciatingly as he thinks they should have.

    He thinks the PM’s life should be taken as one long continuum from girlhood to the top job, and any chink in the armour, at any point in that timeline, should disqualify her permanently from office.

    I guess Chris has led a blameless life, free of bad decisions and poor choices of girlfriends. Perhaps Chris has never even run a red light, or paid the fine for it past the due date?

    If so, then perhaps he has a right to criticise the PM for her own pecadilloes of the past, but otherwise he has no right at all to pontificate like he is.

    [Both sides attempt to frame the political debate. The point is that most journalists ignore or even expose blatant spin from the Liberals – as they should – while far too many simply parrot spin from the government.]

    Men are from Mars. Women are from Venus. And Chris is from another planet altogether, far, far away.

    [How else to explain the relentless focus on the legitimate but transparent opposition tactic of having Julie Bishop rather than Abbott lead the attack?]

    As Chris said, Tony decided to be negative, but because the PM had skewered him by That Speech a while ago, he didn’t have the guts to stand up for himself, so he sent his “good girl” in, Ms Vinegar Tits herself, to do his fighting for him.

    What a man!

    And there, I think Chris might find, is the real nub of the story.

    Tony Abbott is so hamstrung by the stinging attack – and the public’s reaction to it – made upon him by the Prime Minister that he’s been effectively taken out of the debate.

    Standing up to T. Abbott pays dividends. Gillard has stood up to him. Gillard takes the spoils of that particular stoush.

    And Chris Kenney just can’t accept that this is the new paradigm of Australian politics: “The Bully Boy brought down.”

    The private school prat who’s been getting his way throughout his whole life of intimidating others is having it dished back up to him, by a woman, a powerful woman, and he doesn’t know how to handle it.

    Now, there’s a story for you! Pity the Australian doesn’t want to tell it.

  32. victoria

    sprocket

    I watched the interview with Nate Silver. Very interesttng. Although he tends to say “right” a fair bit. I found it distracting for some reason. I know…….. I have issues 😀

  33. victoria

    frednk

    It appears that it was Finns providing the link of the vex story to Emerson via tweet. I could be wrong. Perhaps finns could clarify

  34. The Finnigans

    [Vexnews came out and said it, Craig Emerson used it, JB stuck with it.]

    Emmo didnt use it. It was my tweet to Emmo alerting him of what has been published on Vexnews. It was my comment not Emmo that followed.

    Jesus, why cant you guys get a simple tweet.

  35. victoria

    But finny I followed it as you can see……..

  36. Aguirre

    [ A crucial building block for the government’s spin has been to demand a “smoking gun”. Journalists were revealing facts and asking pertinent questions yet Labor sought to raise the bar, claiming the story wasn’t worthy unless it contained a killer blow.

    Journalists less susceptible to spin were simply interested, as ever, in discovering who, what, when, where and why.]

    This is good. Kenny’s just given us the green light to grill Pyne over his night of drinkies with Ashby. Endlessly and forensically. And to open up the more recent developments with Pyne, which haven’t surfaced yet. We can have a good look at Mal Brough too. And go hard on Bishop’s Wittenoom past as well. And to grill Abbott over his slush fund to destroy Pauline Hanson.

    After all, we don’t need smoking guns any more. Or a killer blow. Just allegations. We’re only interested in discovering the who, what, when, where and why. And we have the right, thanks to Kenny, to take it all over parliament and all over the media until we feel like stopping.

  37. zoomster

    BB

    a slight correction…

    [How noble of him]

    should, of course, read “How NOble of him.”

  38. victoria

    BB

    Does Chris Kenny say anything in his report about JBishop being warned off aout Blewitt by his sister a few months back? What about the judgment of the coalition and JBishop to seek advice from Blewitt, a self confessed liar and fraudster to cast aspersions on the PM of this country?
    I know he is a partisan hack but he should quit while he is behind. This is embarrassing

  39. victoria

    Oops. Meant to read. “Being warned about”

  40. frednk

    [The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Emmo didnt use it. It was my tweet to Emmo alerting him of what has been published on Vexnews. It was my comment not Emmo that followed.

    Jesus, why cant you guys get a simple tweet.]

    Sorry ” the Delphinidae used it”

  41. Fran Barlow

    [“Sometimes there are moments,” reads like a tautology to me. You could remove one or the other and the meaning would remain.]

    Fair point. Speaking as someone who favours always honouring one’s convictions, that one slid past me.

  42. Steve777

    “Sometimes there are moments when a prime minister must keep faith with their convictions…”

    The usual pompous drivel you get from the Australian. It suggests that they think that there are there are moments when the PM doesn’t have to keep such faith – probably when jumping to attention to do their boss’s bidding.

  43. victoria

    Aguirre

    Chris Kenny is so blinded by his hackery. He is beyond pathetic

  44. citizen

    The word has gone out to all Murdoch media: tell readers that the Leveson inquiry was a waste of time and any form of regulation would be evil.

    [Media regulation is not the answer

    Even considering the gross excesses of the British media, a culture very distinct to that in Australia, regulation would be an over-reaction. It would also potentially create a barrier to journalism that properly exposes matters of serious public concern.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/media-regulation-is-not-the-answer/story-e6frezz0-1226527741445

  45. Bushfire Bill

    [It would also potentially create a barrier to journalism that properly exposes matters of serious public concern]

    Like the PM’s earlobes, Slipper’s text messages and who signed what and when, 20 years ago.

  46. The Finnigans

    Both Australia’s LOTO & Shadow AG have openly accused Australia’s PM a CRIMINAL without proof. Where’s the OUTRAGE from #MSMhacks? #auspol

  47. victoria

    The finns

    You forgot the DLOTO and the Manager of Opposition business, aka the poodle

  48. CTar1

    re’ Discussion about Grech and Prosecution last night:

    Leaking/provision of information by disgruntled public servants to non-government politicians is not an uncommon thing.

    I can think of a number of such known events in the last few years eg the Ombudsman writing questions for SH-Y to ask in Senate Estimates hearings – forced to resign. That their efforts become known to the public is unusual.

    Politicians are ‘very receptive’ to these approaches and Public Servants caught are generally just sacked or resign as soon as they realise the game is up.

    Their are probably some prosecutions but I don’t recall one ATM.

    Grech is a standout for the public because his efforts brought down a Leader of the Opposition.

    That the DPP decided not to prosecute Grech on the basis that he was mentally unstable is in no way unexpected.

    After all he falsified the documents that he was giving Turnbull to use in Parliament…

  49. Meguire Bob

    the current carbon price scheme 46% approve

    is more popular then the coalition primary vote

  50. Aguirre

    victoria@47


    Aguirre

    Chris Kenny is so blinded by his hackery. He is beyond pathetic

    Well, there is that. I just wanted to point out that when he puts forward an argument like that, it’s true for all, not just his side of politics. Narrow him down enough and you can probably get him to admit he wants to right to ‘get’ the PM while leaving the entire right of politics untouched. Declaring him a partisan isn’t the same as exposing him as one.

  51. victoria

    CTar1

    Hence my comments that Turnbull’s judgment is not as questionable as that of Abbott and Bishop. They have attacked the credibility of the PM, based on the statements of a self confessed crook who apparently came back to the country last week to seek “immunity” for his wrongdoing, so he could dump on the PM.
    JBishop tried to table Blewitt’s POA as evidence of the PM being guility of not correctly witnessing this document. Obviously on the hearsay of Blewitt.

  52. victoria

    Aguirre

    Point well made

  53. Fran Barlow

    This from Haaretz on the Australian abstention move on Palestinian observer status at the UN.

    [The Australian PM may have been rolled by her party cabinet and caucus, and some MPs who have large Muslim constituencies (such as in Sydney’s west) may have been influenced by the looming Israeli election in 2013 and pro-Palestinian sentiment on the streets — but neither proves a change in government’s fundamental posture on the Israel-Palestine debate. ]

    Amusing … MPs in Sydney’s west are influence by <emthe looming Israeli election in 2013 and pro-Palestinian sentiment on the streets.

    Haaretz, which is comparatively dovish on the question of how to go about indefinitely occupying Palestine and protecting an ethno-nationalist colonial settler state, does note:

    [It is a “storm in a teacup,” says Philip Mendes, a political analyst and co-editor of “Jews and Australian Politics.”

    But he adds: “It turns the complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict into the equivalent of a football match where you are either 100 percent with us or against us. This is a common strategy of some lobby groups, but it can potentially backfire.

    “It doesn’t allow for the reality that a friend of Israel can be totally supportive on the fundamentals of Israel’s right to exist in peace and security and steadfast at times of crisis – as the Labor Government and Obama both were during the recent Gaza conflict – whilst holding sympathetic but critical views on issues such as West Bank settlements, and the preferred pathway to two states.”]

    That’s twice this morning “storm in a tea cup has appeared on my radar. Cicero might be stirring in his grave.

  54. Aguirre

    I’m taking my daily mantra from the Tweet of God:

    [God ‏@TheTweetOfGod

    Fear of failure is all that stands between you and failure. ]

    Could be a great motto for the Liberal Party going forward.

  55. ratsak

    [Hartcher *almost* writes something different than his usual: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-lives-to-fight-another-day-20121130-2amng.html%5D

    Hartcher even when slowly turning his megatanker of anti-Gillard bile around proves himself a complete dope.

    [But this is a standard part of any democracy. The searching public examination of a leader, exploring evidence and testing character, is routine.

    Remember the outrage over John Howard’s alleged conflict of interest when his government handed ethanol subsidies to his brother’s firm, Manildra? Remember the parliamentary convulsions over Paul Keating’s piggery? The accusations were tested in public; the leaders passed the tests.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-lives-to-fight-another-day-20121130-2amng.html#ixzz2DkFPmCMK%5D

    Moron.

    Glaring Google Fail schoolboy error No.1 – In obvious confusion he conflates Howard stumping up government cash to pay for unfunded workers entitlements in brother Stan’s company when it went arse up with Howard secretly meeting with Dick Honan the boss of Manildra, then slapping a 38c/l excise on imported Brazilian ethanol whilst the ship was at sea, and then misleading parliament about it.

    This from the so-called “Sydney Morning Herald political and international editor” just demonstrates the lack of basic competence that is endemic to our media. Hartcher is demonstrably incapable through either lack of skill or will of even a 5 min google search to get simple facts right. He is also clearly deluded enough in his own righteousness to rely on his demonstably faulty memory. No wonder the deluded sap is so often wrong.

    Glaringly False Equivalence schoolboy error no. 1 – Somehow, through a thought process clearly only comprehendable to those of a right-wing hack and the fellow travellers bent, our pin-striped putz manages to equate the persuing of John Howard over his actions as Prime Minister (both over National Textiles and Manildra – if not Children Overboard, Iraq WMD, AWB and all the rest), with a smear campaign based on actions that may or may not have been taken by Gillard acting as a lawyer a decade before she even entered parliament. Even the grotesque and dishonest pursuit of Keating could be barely excused as he owned shares in the piggery at the time he was PM.

    The Howard probes went directly to his conduct as Prime Minister and on his fairly clearly demonstrated misleading of the House and the people. Keatings could be said to at least be indirectly related to his conduct as PM.

    No such relevance to any matter of governance can be attributed to the AWU hysteria. It is hearsay, spun and distorted in the most appalling way by fringe dwelling nutjobs with malign intent and chequered histories, laundered by a Murdoch press without a sense of integrity, and then taken up by sheep in the rest of the media because they are too stupid or fearful to rub two brain cells together and come up with the obvious conclusion – the only story here is that the Libs have attached themselves to a smear campaign because they are bereft of any leadership or policy worthy of the name.

    It is heartening that even a dope like Hartcher is having some of the scales fall from his eyes and notice that Gillard is tougher than the lot of em. But it would be much better if he wasn’t so incompetent to start with. Had he and his fellow media morons had more than 50% of the entry fee to a battle of wits between the smear campaign never would have left the sullied pages of the OO where it would have been as ignored and irrelevant as the latest headlines on the Green Left Weekly, as should every fevered delusion of the fantasists that populate that Murdoch shit sheet.

  56. CTar1

    victoria @ 55

    I agree – Still Talc, bearing in mind what hinged on it for him personally, should have taken a little more care.

    But the general public or the Press won’t consider the use of “Blewitt” in the ‘context’ that you are seeing it in.

    They don’t have the same span of attention.

  57. Steve777

    Many MPs and Senators on both sides of politics are lawyers or were prior to entering politics. Probably most would advised on the setting up shelf companies, trusts and other instruments which were subsequently used for not entirely legal purposes, most commonly to hide assets and income from the tax man. Are they therefore guilty of tax evasion?

  58. C@tmomma

    Good Morning Bludgers! 🙂

    “Sometimes there are moments when a prime minister must keep faith with their convictions…”

    And sometimes there are moments when a desperate Deputy Leader of the Opposition keeps company with sexual predators.

    I know what I think is the worse moral crime. Abandoning one’s convictions(which is purely a matter of perspective of The Australian editorial writer, anyway)?

    Or, consorting with known criminals…………like Ross Lightfoot. 😉

    Oh, and I win Poll Bludger Bingo this week. 67 Red! (I used to own a house in Highgate, before I moved my reliably Red vote to City Beach). 🙂

  59. confessions

    Good morning all.

    For those declaring JBishop to be finished on the back of the latest allegations about Blewitt, remember you read it here first.

    But I particularly like this:

    [The second is that Bishop, Credlin, and Abbott have underestimated Gillard. They don’t have a plan B if she fights back – and the more effective she is when she fights back, the more likely the PM is to do it again and again, meaning the poverty of simply assuming she will simper or weakly stonewall when challenged is exposed.]

  60. Danny Lewis

    Morning, Bludgers!

    [Authentic Observer ‏@BarossaObserver
    Every time you read @chriskenny’s opinion on the #AWU saga, remember he was Turnbull’s Chief Of Staff during the Godwin Grech fiasco #auspol]

  61. C@tmomma

    Here’s one for all the linguistics nuts here, and just generally a good read for us internet word-speakers:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/johnson/2012/11/language-internet?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/theerkernermest

  62. sprocket_

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Kenny_(journalist)

    One thing I’ll say about Chris Kenny, is that he has a thick hide and doesn’t block people on twitter who want to argue with him, and often responds.

  63. C@tmomma

    Do any of the techie types out there know whether you can do pictograms on a Qwerty keyboard by using a particular function?

    Ditto Twitter?

    🙂

  64. Just Me

    [Authentic Observer ‏@BarossaObserver
    Every time you read @chriskenny’s opinion on the #AWU saga, remember he was Turnbull’s Chief Of Staff during the Godwin Grech fiasco #auspol]

    Oh, what a tangled web we weave
    when first we practice to deceive.

  65. spur212

    I reckon the ALP can pick up everything under 2% in Queensland provided Gillard stays out of the state and Clive Palmer forms his new party. That’s 3 seats including Wyatt Roy’s (the Coalition clearly think Longman’s vulnerable given Abbott was there yesterday)

    Melbourne’s also a good chance of an ALP gain.

    It’s everywhere else that’s the problem.

  66. Leroy

    http://tinyurl.com/cmpa84c (click google link)
    [Police to pursue defence abusers amid 1000 ‘credible’ claims
    by: BRENDAN NICHOLSON, DEFENCE EDITOR
    From: The Australian
    December 01, 2012 12:00AM

    A TEAM of up to 50 investigators, mostly serving and retired police and criminal lawyers, will be needed to examine more than 1000 “credible” claims of abuse in the Australian Defence Force in a process that will take at least a year.

    In an exclusive interview, newly appointed ADF abuse taskforce head Len Roberts-Smith outlined the monumental task confronting the investigators but declared that Defence was committed to cultural change and eradicating entrenched abusive behaviour.]

  67. confessions

    Thanks to whoever linked to Mike Carlton.

    [Even in quiet times the Oz’s Canberra political coverage has a hectoring tone. Obsessive, bombastic, endlessly repetitive, it is a newspaper with Asperger’s. Platoons of reporters, columnists and commentators, all grandly titled – chief this, national that – tumble over each other in furious agreement with their proprietor’s view that only nice Mr Abbott can save the nation from the perdition to which Labor is leading us.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/stirring-this-storm-in-a-teacup-20121130-2alxv.html#ixzz2DkYhc400

    😆 He has such a great way with words.

  68. victoria

    Steve777@61

    Bingo!!

  69. zoomster

    spur

    a couple of months ago we were being told here that it didn’t matter what happened elsewhere, Labor was going to be so wiped out in QLD it wouldn’t matter.

    Now you’re telling us that Labor’s going to be OK in QLD but in trouble elsewhere.

    I don’t mind doom and gloom prognostations as such – I just wish they’d follow a consistent line.

  70. C@tmomma

    I got this one from Leroy on Twitter, and he hasn’t linked it yet(in his cool, clear and neat style 🙂 ), so:

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/well-they-are-not-laughing-now/story-e6frerc6-1226527718631

    It’s a round-up of the state of politics at the moment in The Sunshine State.

  71. confessions

    [It’s everywhere else that’s the problem.]

    Now.

    Who’s to say that won’t change in the future? After all, it was only a short while ago you were saying Labor was going to lose all its seats in Qld, bar one.

  72. C@tmomma

    zoomster,
    One thing that IS consistent about spur212, her posts will always follow the anti-Gillard Labor line, ‘More in sorrow than in anger’. 🙂

  73. Bushfire Bill

    [Glaring Google Fail schoolboy error No.1 – In obvious confusion he conflates Howard stumping up government cash to pay for unfunded workers entitlements in brother Stan’s company when it went arse up with Howard secretly meeting with Dick Honan the boss of Manildra, then slapping a 38c/l excise on imported Brazilian ethanol whilst the ship was at sea, and then misleading parliament about it.

    This from the so-called “Sydney Morning Herald political and international editor” just demonstrates the lack of basic competence that is endemic to our media.]

    I spotted that too, but wasn’t sure if Stan had something to do with Manildra as well. It wouldn’t have surprised me.

    You make a good point ratsak: they are conflating Prime Ministers’ policy decisions and “suspect” associations with an intra-office blow up, 15 years before one of the participants became PM.

    Of course, they say that the PM is “untrustworthy”, and this earlier, alleged indication of her duplicity is therefore relevant on the theme of “untrustworthiness” today.

    But we don’t need to look far for another example of this.

    Abbott’s thuggish behaviour has been his trademark throughout his political life.

    Youse all know the details, so I won’t bore you with them, except for one: his announced intention to prosecute the case for a judicial inquiry even after he wins the election next year (if he does, of course), no matter what.

    Never has some much column space and legal angst been frittered away on so little, from so long ago, for such negligible purpose.

    Abbott has gone insane with anger and humiliation. He can never let a slight go. He has to settle every score, avenge every defeat, eviscerate every enemy.

    It’s stood him in good stead for over thirty years in politics, but finally he’s rattled. He wants to prove that he’s still the alpha male, not to be challenged by a mere woman, a woman who has the job he believes is rightly his.

    What his colleagues must think of this is a legitimate question.

    They are seeing a bloke driven crazy by Gillard. He’s letting his emotions get to him. He’s changed his behaviour, trying to get the word out that a couple of weeks’ letting it all well up inside him signals a change of character.

    I don’t think too many will be fooled.

    The emerging truth of the matter is that Abbott is a spent force. He’s performing less than his best because every time he goes the biff, he’s tarred with the “sexist” brush. He is a liability to the Coalition. A dead weight.

  74. Sohar

    Although I don’t mind Mike Carlton’s ramblings and generally agree with him, I find it a bit disingenuous to single out the Oz as the only media player in what has been a criminal conspiracy against the PM – his own Fairfax and the ABC are also co-conspirators in this crime.

  75. Leroy

    ta C@tmomma 🙂 Here is another local politics one, and a couple of general interest links.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/getting-liberal-with-our-wallets/story-e6freuy9-1226527750198
    [Getting Liberal with our wallets
    Gemma Jones The Daily Telegraph
    December 01, 2012 12:00AM

    LIBERAL former prime ministers have been the most expensive to keep in their retirement this year. ]

    http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/jeh-johnson-terrorism/
    [For the First Time, Obama Official Sketches Out End to War on Terror
    By Spencer Ackerman 11.30.12 12:00 PM

    Neither the George W. Bush nor Barack Obama White House ever laid out a vision for what an end to the war on terrorism would actually look like. But as Obama prepares for his second term in office, one of his top defense officials is arguing that there is an end in sight, and laying out conditions for when the U.S. will reach it. ]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/lifestyle/a-different-battle-20121126-2a25x.html
    [A different battle
    December 1, 2012

    In southern Africa, where elephants and rhinos are being slaughtered in huge numbers, former Australian serviceman Damien Mander has set up a private army to take on the poachers. He talks tactics with Nikki Barrowclough.]

  76. Andrew

    CTar1, I completely disagree with you.

    I spend most of my professional time doing reports for people with mental illness of all kinds, even severe, being charged with every offence under the sun.

    Grech should have been prosecuted.

  77. confessions

    sohar:

    He does sink the boot into Fairfax and the ABC, albeit not with the same gusto:

    [Towards the end of the week a collective madness seemed to infect everybody. Fairfax Media, publisher of this very organ, was berated by the Prime Minister in Parliament over its front page splash on the subject. At the ABC, a couple of impenetrable interviews on 7.30 shed more heat than light.]

  78. Captain Obvious

    The fact that the Libs ran so hard on AWU against Gillard pretty well shows they think she will win in 2013. If they thought she was leading the ALP to an historic defeat, they would be happy to leave her in place…

    Yours obviously,

  79. Andrew

    Exactly Captain
    And in any event going after her in an election campaign may have been far more damaging. This was all about saving Abbott’s leadership. For now

  80. Just Me

    Gillard clearly has them seriously rattled and desperate.

  81. BH

    BB – you just showed why Kenny’s Sat. program has so few viewers. The bloke cannot look at anything about Labor from a balanced journalistic point of view.

    Aguirre’s comment that Kenny has now given journos the green light to jump all over Pyne is a good one. Nobody is off limits according to Kenny.

    Kenny needs to listen properly. In 1993 the registration of associations to raise money for elections was not illegal. Even S&G said the registration was not illegal.

    JG’s only mistake was in trusting someone she believed wanted to do the best for union members. Most of us have put our trust in the wrong place at various times in our lives. It’s a bummer to be let down.

    I do think she could tell Bonge tomorrow how she felt about being let down. She could also spell out in capital letters that ‘slush fund’ registration was not illegal then and there are still plenty of them around (Australians for Honest Politics!!)

  82. victoria

    Here is the audio of Jon Faine speaking on ABC radio

    For those who missed Jon Faine’s editorial on ABC radio (9days ago) on the 22nd November re the credibility of Ralph Blewitt. In light of what transpired over the past nine days, it is a very important punctuation mark

    http://soundcloud.com/bludger-sounds/jon-faine-774abc-2012-11-22-on

  83. guytaur

    @JournalismDaily: ‘Leveson proposals would safeguard investigative journalism’ http://t.co/qhaeuSNR

  84. Bushfire Bill

    [At the ABC, a couple of impenetrable interviews on 7.30 shed more heat than light.]

    Good observation by Mike Carlton. It seemed that the ABC just ran those interviews to show they could touch base with the story, without revealing anything particularly new.

    I can still remember the feeling of disappointment I had as the Media Watch guy promised there would be ABC involvement coming up in the next week.

    Not only does The Australian fancy itself as the leading national daily, but it arrogates to itself the role of media watchdog as well.

    Journalists at other organizations dutifully jump and skip to The Australian’stune, like my dogs when I get their walking harnesses out.

    And what did it all come down to? Stayant-Browne remains in Seattle, sniping from afar with expropriated documents that legal ethics say he’s not supposed to have, all while he criticises the professional ethics of Julia Gillard.

    Ralph Blewitt’s story becomes sleazier and sleazier with allegations of sexual misconduct, not only with Asian prostitutes, but with members of his own family.

    The real truth about Blewitt was staring them all in the face, but needed Wilson’s interview to bring it out: He ran the account. He owned the house. He buried the money. He sold the house. The money disappeared. He went to Asia. He continued his sexual practices and his shonky land dealings.

    Yet somehow, Gillard, who ran a mile when she found out how dodgy he was, is to blame. Gillard did the running. Mesma, Mike Smith, the collective Shock Jocks, The Australian and the ABC put out the welcome mat to Blewitt.

    He eats his Chinese dinner with a fork, y’know. He’s just gotta be a dinkum bloke if he does that.

    I doubt we’ll see Mr. Blewitt again for some considerable time.

  85. guytaur

    @Charles_HRH: One cannot believe people are comparing Rupert Murdoch to Satan. Yes, he’s evil, but he’s not as bad as Rupert Murdoch. #leveson

  86. Bushfire Bill

    [Aguirre’s comment that Kenny has now given journos the green light to jump all over Pyne is a good one. Nobody is off limits according to Kenny.]

    That’s right, idle curiosity and some convoluted beat-up claiming – in at least one journalist from The Australia’s view – how something “goes to fitness for office” seems to be new paradigm.

  87. guytaur

    Meredith Bergman on AWU news 24 now

  88. BH

    So Kate McClymont won a Wangkley for her story on Thommo’s credit cards.

    Perhaps she can chase this story with more depth than others have since June 2012. She could huge headlines to pronounce Downer and Howard guilty before presumption of innocence. After all Fairfax has allegedly declared Thommo, Slipper and the PM guilty.

  89. CTar1

    Andrew – The difficulty with these generally is that a sitting politician has, if they can be shown to have responded to the approach, to have colluded in the commission of a crime.

    Once you add in some reasonably well established evidence of mental instability it is simply not practical to prosecute.

    People resign and that is generally the end of it. The Press rarely even know of these events and those they do don’t usually make much news.

  90. Bushfire Bill

    The panel on ABC 24 can’t resist tarring both side with the same brush.

    It wasn’t Julia Gillard who first used the word “misogyny” in that debate over Slipper. She merely defined it.

    It wasn’t Julia Gillard who brought up Slatergate for the umpteenth time. She merely accepted the argument and won it.

    If she had refused to discuss either matter, then the media would have been full of how well Abbott had eviscerated her reputation.

  91. guytaur

    Wow. Flooding in a desert

    @breakingstorm: State of emergency declared in Reno, Nevada, area ahead of potential flooding – @rgj http://t.co/lfgpi19O

  92. Sohar

    Yes, that seems to be the new line from the ABC and Fairfax – lump Labor with the Libs, so that the heat comes off the odious Tories.

  93. bemused

    spur212@69


    I reckon the ALP can pick up everything under 2% in Queensland provided Gillard stays out of the state and Clive Palmer forms his new party. That’s 3 seats including Wyatt Roy’s (the Coalition clearly think Longman’s vulnerable given Abbott was there yesterday)

    Melbourne’s also a good chance of an ALP gain.

    It’s everywhere else that’s the problem.

    Gaining Melbourne is not a great help in tilting the balance.
    I agree there are possible gains in Qld (praise be to Newman) and possibly more than you are estimating.
    NSW is the problem and from Mike Carlton, in one sentence, here’s why:
    [Labor’s tragedy in NSW is that the glory days are dust and ashes. What a horrible fall it has been from Gough Whitlam to Eddie Obeid.]
    NSW needs the cleansing fire of full blown Federal Intervention to expunge the stench of corruption.

    Anything less is just pussy footing around and will not have the required dramatic effect.

  94. confessions

    [It seemed that the ABC just ran those interviews to show they could touch base with the story, without revealing anything particularly new.]

    That was pretty obvious, as was the ABC radio obsession with the story when no more details were ever really revealled. Truly pathetic.

  95. Psephos

    [It’s everywhere else that’s the problem.]

    Specifically, it’s NSW, where Labor must expect to lose all or most of: Banks, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Lindsay, Page and Robertson; and Tasmania, where Labor must expect to lose Bass, Braddon and possibly Lyons (especially if Adams retires) and Franklin. Lingiari is also at serious risk. Offsetting that is some prospect of picking up Brisbane, Forde and/or Longman in Qld if Newman’s government continues to perform so badly, and maybe a chance of Aston in Vic, although Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin will be hard to hold. Labor will probably pick up Melbourne, but that doesn’t help. On the other hand Oakeshott will probably lose Lyne and Windsor could lose New England. Overall, it still adds up to a loss. Labor has to get several points ahead in 2-party terms to offset the deep local problems it has in NSW and Tasmania. One good thing about the AWU-non-scandal is that it’s diverted attention from the real scandal at the HSU, but no doubt it will return in the new year, further damaging Labor in NSW. #letsnotgetcarriedawayjustyet

  96. guytaur

    With the coverage of slatergate it is best to mention the honourable exceptions like Jon Faine.

    The OM has truly been a pack of baying hounds rushing for the prey. Not a parliament of owls looking at the evidence to determine if proof exists for a conviction.

  97. spur212

    Confessions @75

    What’s happening in Queensland under Newman is unprecedented in the state’s history and the union movement has it’s act together (especially the ones that aren’t affiliated with the ALP).

    In hindsight, I didn’t appreciate just how much Newman could screw things up for the LNP in such a short period of time. He’s not like O’Farrell or Baillieu who have checks and balances on what they’re doing. This guy’s doing stuff on IR policy that hasn’t been seen in Queensland since federation. He’s a very special piece of work.

    Everywhere else is pretty much the way it has been albeit the ALP are regaining some of their base as Abbott’s fear campaign becomes less powerful, but that was to be expected as the carbon tax is no longer has such polarising emotion attached to it. 48/52 2PP with an ALP primary vote below 38% (we don’t seem to be even at the point where the ALP realises it has to get over that mark in order to win) is still screwed

  98. bemused

    It is interesting how a few of the normal suspects jump on Spur212 because he attempts to make a rational assessment of Labor’s chances in the next election.

    A few of you should ponder this:
    [The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    – Bertrand Russell]

  99. spur212

    Bemused @98

    The problem in Queensland is whenever the federal ALP become visible over there (or the state ALP for that matter), it takes the focus away from Newman and the complete farce his government has become.

    Agree on federal intervention in NSW. It should have been done a very long time ago

  100. Bushfire Bill

    [A few of you should ponder this:

    The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    – Bertrand Russell]

    Yes, Bemused, we noticed.

  101. bemused

    Psephos@100



    It’s everywhere else that’s the problem.


    Specifically, it’s NSW, where Labor must expect to lose all or most of: Banks, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Lindsay, Page and Robertson; and Tasmania, where Labor must expect to lose Bass, Braddon and possibly Lyons (especially if Adams retires) and Franklin. Lingiari is also at serious risk. Offsetting that is some prospect of picking up Brisbane, Forde and/or Longman in Qld if Newman’s government continues to perform so badly, and maybe a chance of Aston in Vic, although Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin will be hard to hold. Labor will probably pick up Melbourne, but that doesn’t help. On the other hand Oakeshott will probably lose Lyne and Windsor could lose New England. Overall, it still adds up to a loss. Labor has to get several points ahead in 2-party terms to offset the deep local problems it has in NSW and Tasmania. One good thing about the AWU-non-scandal is that it’s diverted attention from the real scandal at the HSU, but no doubt it will return in the new year, further damaging Labor in NSW. #letsnotgetcarriedawayjustyet

    Good post.

    Now stand by to get the same shellacking that spur got for daring to be realistic. 👿

  102. bemused

    Bushfire Bill@105



    A few of you should ponder this:

    The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
    – Bertrand Russell


    Yes, Bemused, we noticed.

    And ‘Bullshit Bill’ you were one I had in mind.

  103. zoomster

    Unlike ModLib, I don’t jump up and down here about how right I am about stuff.

    However, I note that Queensland under Newman is going exactly the way I said it would – a leader who lacks experience in governance at this level, but who believes that he’s better than anyone else in the party (because his elevation to leader said that) and therefore won’t believe they have anything worthwhile to tell him, is bound to stuff up big time.

    I’m shit at poll predictions, but I understand governance pretty well!

  104. Bushfire Bill

    [And ‘Bullshit Bill’ you were one I had in mind.]

    I’m glad of that. Shows I get under your skin.

  105. briefly

    Labor has to sort out the NSW branch. If Gillard supports Federal intervention, the voters of NSW will reward her, if only because by their votes they have been carrying out their own intervention.

    Labor can win if they fix NSW. It is that simple.

  106. victoria

    Bemused

    oh pulhease…..!! Spur was rambling for months that Qld would be a wipeout and Rudd was its only salvation.

  107. Greensborough Growler

    psphos,

    This far out from the election it appears that voting will be polarised. Safe seats will become safer for both sides and the decision on Government will be decided by the outer suburbs (not that this is anything knew).

    Incumbancy of sitting members will assist.

    I can forsee a situation where the Government cops a small swing and actually picks up seats in the key areas.

    The high level of others that have shown up in polls since the last election is a significant change (4 to 8%). Pollsters use the preferences as at the last election.

    I’m still wondering who they are and whether distributing these preferences in this way is the most reliable way to do so.

  108. bemused

    victoria@111


    Bemused

    oh pulhease…..!! Spur was rambling for months that Qld would be a wipeout and Rudd was its only salvation.

    And the facts, courtesy of Newman, have changed. So he changed his mind as anyone with half a brain would.

    So where is your problem?

  109. guytaur

    victoria

    I agree with your point on spur212. However in defence I must say I do not think anyone knew just how appalling Newman would be.

  110. bemused

    Bushfire Bill@109



    And ‘Bullshit Bill’ you were one I had in mind.


    I’m glad of that. Shows I get under your skin.

    Yes, your turgid rants waste my bandwidth.

  111. Psephos

    [Good post.

    Now stand by to get the same shellacking that spur got for daring to be realistic.]

    It is curious that many posters here are (rightly) critical of the media-pack’s anti-Labor group-think, yet the leftist group-think here is very powerful and gets very nasty when challenged. Curiously, it combines fierce rhetorical support for the ALP with savage attacks on people who actually defend ALP policy (as I did yesterday on Israel).

    Specifically to Bemused, I’d add that Labor’s prospects would be better if it wasn’t constantly being undermined by well-timed diversionary leaks from a certain former leader and his dwindling band of followers. #justsaying

  112. muttleymcgee

    So, bemused, ‘the usual suspects’ aren’t as sage or as perceptive as you were on 27th May when you spouted this:

    [4469

    Gillard will be replaced by Rudd. The only issue is the timing and I hope it does not take place too soon. September would be about right.

    4477
    Rudd is the only credible option. You may wish it was otherwise, but it isn’t.]

    There you go ….