The monthly ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Queensland shows little movement in voting intention despite the defections of three LNP parliamentarians, although Campbell Newman's personal ratings continue to worsen.
ReachTEL’s monthly automated phone poll of state voting intention in Queensland, conducted for Channel Seven, has the Liberal National Party essentially unchanged on a month ago at 41.9%, Labor down two points to 32.1%, Katter’s Australian Party (on which more below) up three to a new high of 12.1% and the Greens down more than a point to 8.2%. ReachTEL doesn’t publish two-party preferred results, but my own reading of preference flows from the state election converts this into an LNP lead of 55-45. Campbell Newman’s combined very good and good rating is up two points to 38.2%, but his very poor rating alone is up nearly four points to a new high of 36.7%, which reaches 51.0% when combined with his poor rating. Annastacia Palaszczuk is down from 28.7% to 27.9% on very good/good and up from 29.1% to 29.5% on very poor/poor. The poll also finds 50.5% saying they are less likely to vote LNP at the federal election on account of the Newman government’s performance against 31.0% for more likely, compared with 45.1% and 33.9% when the question was last asked two months ago.
The period since the last such poll has seen no fewer than three defections by LNP parliamentarians, which have changed the numbers in the chamber from LNP 78, Labor 7, KAP 2 and independents 2 to LNP 75, Labor 7, KAP 3 and independents 4. Condamine MP Ray Hooper, who was first elected as an independent at the 2001 election and joined the Nationals later that year, has joined Katter’s Australian Party and assumed its parliamentary leadership. A further two MPs, Alex Douglas from the Gold Coast seat of Gaven and Carl Judge from Yeerongpilly, have quit over disputes with the LNP leadership and now sit as independents.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.