tip off

Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Labor’s run of bad polling has been relieved by a relatively encouraging Nielsen result, in which a modest Coalition two-party lead is offset by an alarming disapproval rating for Tony Abbott and a thumbs-down over his handling of the AWU affair.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the final Nielsen poll for the year has come in above Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 last month. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens down two to 10%. Tony Abbott has reached a new low on net approval from Nielsen with approval down two to 34% and disapproval up three to an alarming 63%, which is apparently the second highest disapproval rating for an Opposition Leader in Nielsen’s 40-year history. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are little changed at 46% approval (down one) and 50% disapproval (up two), while her lead as preferred prime minister is at 50-40, compared with 51-42 last time. There is also heartening news for Labor with questions on the AWU affair, with 47% approving of Julia Gillard’s handling of the matter against 40% disapproval, while the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 24% and 64%. Full tables here.

There has also been a ReachTel automated phone poll of 661 respondents published today, commissioned by Sydney Morning Herald, which suggests Mal Brough would win a clear victory as LNP candidate for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax despite his recent bruising in the Ashby affair. The poll shows Brough with 48.4% on the primary vote against a derisory for 2.7% for Peter Slipper, who is publicly still committed to seeking re-election as an independent, 21.2% for Labor, 11.7% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. Brough was viewed favourably by 41.8% of respondents against 34.0% unfavourable, while the respective figures for Slipper were 6.9% and 75.5%. Brough’s involvement in the Ashby matter made 37.3% of respondents less likely to vote for him, against 39.8% for no difference. A substantial cohort of very curious people, apparently amounting to 22.6% of the Fisher electorate, say it has made them more likely to vote for him.

UPDATE (17/12/2012): The final Essential Research for the year has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second successive week to extend its lead to 55-45, the highest in nearly three months. However, the primary votes have emerged from rounding unchanged on last week, with Labor on 36%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 8%. Further questions find that 2012 was perceived as being a good year for banks and miners, an uninspiring one for the Australian economy and “you and your family”, a poor one for the media, farming, unions, the environment and “the average Australian”, and a shocker for small business and “Australian politics in general”. Labor, Liberal, Greens and independents were all rated as having had a bad year, Labor emerging the worst. Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott rated equally poorly, with opinion evenly divided as to whether either will make it to the election.

Respondents were asked which of seven deignated political events was the year’s most significant, with the implementation of the carbon tax well ahead on 41%. The other results were 14% for the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge, 9% for the reopening of offshore detention centres, 7% for AWU slush fund allegations, 6% for Julia Gillard’s sexism speech, 5% for “bipartisan support for the National Disability Insurance Scheme” and 5% for Australia winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council. Essential Research will next report on January 14.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen further finds 36% of respondents think themselves better off than two years against 45% worse off, with supporters of Labor (50% better, 29% worse) and the Greens (52% better, 26% worse) typically taking a rosier view than those of the Coalition (23% better, 61% worse).

UPDATE 3 (19/12/12): The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year, covering the last two weekends’ surveying, is a good one for Labor, who are up four points to 40% on the primary vote (their best result since February last year), while the Coalition is down three to 37.5% (their worst this term) with the Greens up 1.5% to 12.5%. Two-party preferred is 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour on respondent-allocated preferences, which precisely reverses the position in the previous poll, while previous election preferences have Labor turning a 50.5-49.5 deficit into a 53.5-46.5 lead. These are respectively Labor’s best results since December 2010 and February 2011.

5440
  • 5401
    Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:37 am | Permalink

    See if The Kouk would sign up for it ….

  • 5402
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:41 am | Permalink

    Thinking of Vera.

  • 5403
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Briefly

    Can I direct this question to you. Is this site closing down for Christmas and if so when and for how long? I’ve only been popping in spasmodically for a while and haven’t been able to catch up with everything.

  • 5404
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Were she here, she’d be thinking of you, too Puff, I’m sure.

  • 5405
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Darn, it is closing, though I’m not sure of the dates

  • 5406
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    WB needs a spell from his exertions here

  • 5407
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Thanks briefly.

  • 5408
    Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    When PB shuts down, a few of us are chatting here…

    https://pbxmastragics.wordpress.com/

  • 5409
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    There is a temporary shelter, put up by Joe6Pack, for those who have nowhere else to go during the break….it is logged a few pages back

  • 5410
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    Would like to see the Ronster back again. Would sort out a few pretenders here, no doubt.

    Yeah the Ronster was great. My favourite post by Ronster was the one where he wrote:

    Y*(GUIR^*BIU T&*T&(BJK Y(*BJKY*(Y Y*(Y*()BPUIIG&T)FFUTKH *(Y*(*Y(_OIHPBHT&*)

  • 5411
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    When PB shuts down, a few of us are chatting here…

    Bookmarked for future trolling.

  • 5412
    kezza2
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    PTMD

    You need the cheering-up poroti:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZixgIE3WShk

    and

    (actually, I’ll go searching, just hang on a tick)

    it was one of my favourites every time I thought of Vera.

    Be back in a minny.

  • 5413
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Do you guys know what became of Ron?

  • 5414
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    One thing you can’t hide, is you’re crippled inside.

  • 5415
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:55 am | Permalink

    I plan to spend the coming couple of weeks with my family, reading, swimming and un-blogging

  • 5416
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 12:56 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    One thing you can’t hide, is you’re crippled inside.

    LOL! Clearly you’re drunk again G.G. because you keep repeatedly misquoting John Lennon lyrics.

  • 5417
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    Darn…I don’t know the details. His amigos can state the facts, but I think he has been rescued from blogging by his wife.

  • 5418
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    darn,

    Ron decided to stop posting some years back.

    Ron was clearly dyslexic. However, his insights and views were always worth the effort of ploughing through. I always found an underlying rythym and consistency to his views. Ron is one very smart hombre imho.

    Unfortunately, a few of the blog bullies like Showsy, Adam and Deblonay decided that perfect English was the only form of communication that was permissable and, to their shame, basically ran him off the reservation.

  • 5419
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:01 am | Permalink

    SO…do you find celebrity agrees with you?

  • 5420
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    Who’s John Lennon?

  • 5421
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:04 am | Permalink

    GG and briefly, thanks for responding. I was starting to wonder if, like Vera, he had passed away. I’m pleased that’s not the case.

  • 5422
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    Nite all.

  • 5423
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    Who’s John Lennon?

    Oh dear G.G.! You’re suffering serious amnesia, which is another tell tale sign that your alcohol consumption is far too high.

  • 5424
    kezza2
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    PTMD

    Here it is

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wu_9W2jAxk

    Funnily enough it doesn’t have the same oomph, knowing that Vera isn’t jiving too.

    But I used to love thinking that Vera was groovin to the mooin.

    Dumb I know. but hey.

  • 5425
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    bye Darn….happy xmas

  • 5426
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:06 am | Permalink

    SO…do you find celebrity agrees with you?

    It depends on the celebrity.

  • 5427
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:07 am | Permalink

    Unfortunately, a few of the blog bullies like Showsy, Adam and Deblonay decided that perfect English was the only form of communication that was permissable and, to their shame, basically ran him off the reservation.

    You’re being a moron again G.G.

    Ron was a lot of fun, but he did have a strange habit of attacking me even when I agreed with him.

  • 5428
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:09 am | Permalink

    it would be a start to find even one agreeable celeb, SO…

  • 5429
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:11 am | Permalink

    i must go…see you all again i hope

  • 5430
    kezza2
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:11 am | Permalink

    Darn

    thanks for your fantastic words earlier.

    It really means a lot to me.

    It’s people like you that make people like me learn compassion here.

    Anyway, night all.

  • 5431
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:12 am | Permalink

    it would be a start to find even one agreeable celeb, SO…

    I don’t find anything disagreeable about Carly Rae Jepsen.

  • 5432
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:13 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    Ron did you on a break and stripped you bare.

    Only, it was a Mobius Strip. So your clothes were still on. Just inside out.

  • 5433
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    that me be, SO, but CRJ is no celeb…..i’ve never heard of this person :)

  • 5434
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    Ron did you on a break and stripped you bare.

    What you and Ron do in the privacy of your own home is none of my business G.G.

  • 5435
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:19 am | Permalink

    that me be, SO, but CRJ is no celeb…..i’ve never heard of this person

    SHE WROTE CALL ME MAYBE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    She’s a top mofo.

  • 5436
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:23 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    So it’s just you and your dialysis friend, Gilbert, again.

    Alone again, Naturally.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_P-v1BVQn8

  • 5437
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:26 am | Permalink

    G.G., was that a link to Piss Up a Rope by Ween?

    Because that’s the only YouTube link I view. The rest I ignore.

  • 5438
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:28 am | Permalink

    Briefly# 5366: Monash = hero. Murcoch caln = conspirators to commit treason.’

    Andrew Bolt, suck on that for free speech.

  • 5439
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:29 am | Permalink

    New thread.

  • 5440
    swamprat
    Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 1:35 am | Permalink

    Psephos

    I must say I feel let down by the Mayans. Now I’ve got nothing at all planned for the weekend, and I haven’t done any Xmas shopping.

    I have also nothing planned for the weekend and done no Christmas shopping but I can’t blame the Mayans. For me it is business as usual.

    Anyway the poor Mayans never said the “world” would end yesterday. That was done by modern new age nutters. Nothing new in that.

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