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The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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375 comments

375 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

  1. mexicanbeemer

    Actually Gillard is a long way from being the worst PM.

    To qualifier surely you need to cause a recession or been brought down by a major corruption scandal or lose seat at election and Gillard has done non of those three things.

  2. davidwh

    JM if you are correct on the second point we can only pray you are at least half right on the first point. One is possible and the other a real challenge.

  3. Sohar

    Who let the trolls out.. who let the trolls out! Looks like Bernardi unchained the pound again.

  4. Son of foro

    [” I used to vote ALP, but never again …”]

    Ah, yes, the golden oldies. They don’t write ’em like they used to!

    I remember when every online comment from Menzies House and the IPA used to start with that classic – until it was pointed out to them that they might come across as slightlyl more believable if every single comment didn’t contain exactly the same phrases.

    Halcyon days in many ways.

  5. J M

    Stephen – also, just to add to your post, the only one elected out of the lot is Bligh. All of the others were put there, and/or did so through betrayal.

  6. mexicanbeemer

    More evidence of a weakening economy and poor Swannie wonders why he wont have a surplus.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/job-ads-drop-for-tenth-month-20130114-2com9.html

  7. guytaur

    mexi

    you not see peter martin’s article?

  8. mexicanbeemer

    Anna Bight was an okay premier and her performance during the floods was outstanding.

    Her defeat was due to a number of factors such as its time and the broken promise not to sell assets such as QR National.

  9. CTar1

    Sohar – The ‘dogs’ will certainly be on next.

    Think of the children …

  10. Lord Barry Bonkton

    I met a girl at the dump on friday , and she has moved in already. Her name is Zena.

    How can I load a photo on here ??????

  11. Son of foro

    [What a great club to join.]

    Yep. The ‘PMs who have lost their seat’ club, that’s a bit more exclusive, albeit the sort of club one wouldn’t join if one were admitted. (Literature, mate. I know you’re a tory boy with no knowledge of the valuable things in life, so just google it.)

  12. mexicanbeemer

    Guytaur I haven read one for a while has he written a new article or are you referring to an older article?

  13. leone

    I smell a rat.

    Stephen T can spell correctly and doesn’t fill his posts with capital letters. Even though there is a bit of exclamation mark overkill and he spelt ‘Thomson’ wrong I’m still not convinced. Stephen T will have to dumb it down a bit if he wants me to believe he’s a genuine Abbott supporter.

  14. CTar1

    J M

    Happy trolling.

  15. CTar1

    leone – I’ve already suggested it’s William just being entertaining.

  16. guytaur

    mexi

    Yes. About how Swan may get his surplus after all.

  17. CTar1

    LBB – I assume Zena needed serious washing?

  18. Sohar

    Do you think this bunch of trolls might be orchestrated by none other than Johnny “Golom” Howard? There is something Howardesque about their language.

  19. Meguire Bob

    Mod Lib

    Will be Please with Stephen T and J M

  20. DisplayName

    They probably came across from the Daily Telegraph :P.

  21. Darn

    [J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:38 pm | Permalink
    Tricot – how many seats do the Nats contest? Unlike Labor and Liberal, hardly any. Abbott will be a great PM, and I can’t wait until that happens in August/September
    ]

    Actually if Abbott manages to lie his way into the Lodge later this year he will an absolute embarrassment and will be gone well before the time of the 2016 poll.

  22. kakuru

    [ In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.]

    What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on failed FEMALE leaders.

    What have you rabid Tories got against women? It’s getting kinda creepy. I can see why you’re a huge fan of Abbott’s.

  23. Lord Barry Bonkton

    CTar1 , just a gentle wipe over with water. The cut and paste don’t work on here ???

  24. mexicanbeemer

    Yes the jump in Iron Ore prices is promising but is it being driven by a sustainable long term raise in demand or by spectaculars.

    And a lot will depend on how long term this improved price is for.

    http://www.petermartin.com.au/2013/01/dont-write-off-surplus.html

  25. J M

    CTar1 – please explain? Because I am a righty, I am a troll?

  26. DisplayName

    Eh, kakuru, you’ve fallen into the trap of using his label for those people.

  27. jeffemu

    We had a slight PB meltdown yesterday. I was interested to see how tweeterville was going with the proven fact that the Telecrap was deliberately posting only neg comments on the PMJG front page article.

    I know my comment wasn’t posted and it was deliberately mild.

    Any reports on hand

  28. J M

    Also, I don’t think that this poll is accurate. The Coalition and Labor’s primary are both too high, IMO, and the Green’s is too low. I would love the Greens to only be on 8%, as they are far worse even than Labor, but there are too many nutters/inner city trendies, IMO, for that number to be right.

  29. CTar1

    LBB – Disinfectant highly recommended.

    Please do J M as well.

  30. kakuru

    Not with you, DisplayName.

  31. leone

    Poor little trolls, blindly parrotting the party line. No-one can get the poor things to understand that we don’t elect prime ministers and state premiers in this country. We elect governments and those governments choose their leaders. ‘But Alan said…’ is no excuse for such ignorance.

  32. kakuru

    [ ‘But Alan said…’]

    The only time our friend Alan did any in-depth probing of issues was in a London public toilet.

  33. guytaur

    @jttozer: Growing up gay in Iran – the story of an invisible community: http://t.co/fz25D61g

  34. Sohar

    I think Leigh Sales is back on 7.5 tonight, which means I’ll watch some old episodes of Peep Show on Channel 4 via my VPN at that time. Pity, because I found the guy last week (Ben Knights?) tolerable – spoke like a normal human being and actually seemed interested in the people he was talking to or talking about, unlike anyone else at the ABC.

  35. mari

    [jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:57 pm | PERMALINK
    We had a slight PB meltdown yesterday. I was interested to see how tweeterville was going with the proven fact that the Telecrap was deliberately posting only neg comments on the PMJG front page article.

    I know my comment wasn’t posted and it was deliberately mild.

    Any reports on hand]

    I think on twitter and on PB there were at least 10 writers that I know of wrote comments to DT article, a few wrote negative JG as well as positive under different names, I am sure you know which ones were published. Neither of mine were published, BK managed to get one in, at about 100 DT had to show they were “balanced” think I real somewhere is was about 120 negative to 7 positive? 🙂

  36. ratsak

    All of which leaves me as confident as ever that the ALP will win this year’s election.

    Whatever the real numbers are, it is pretty obvious that there are an awful lot of people, including some pb posters, who are expressing a preference for some theoretical (dare I say ‘mythical’) Liberal government. But the idea of an actual Tony Abbott as actual Prime Minister – ah not so much.

    It’s pretty safe to say you prefer a Lib government in the polls. All the media have been saying it’s going to happen, you can just go with the flow, and it doesn’t actually make Tony Abbott Prime Minister, so no harm no foul. And anyway, if you can’t blame the guv’mint for all that ails ya between elections, then what’s the bloody point of having one?

    As long as Gillard can keep chipping away at the dissatisfieds over the next 6 months then she’ll be able to re-run Howard’s 2004 trust election campaign and win solidly against Abbott. Once the actual campaign starts and then in the booth itself it’s no longer theoretical, we’re playing for keeps. A vote for the Coalition isn’t a vote for some imagined Howard restoration, or potential Turnbull government.

    A vote for Tony Abbott as Prime Minister will be a real vote. For Tony Abbott. As Prime Minister.

    If Labor can’t run an effective campaign on that alone they truly are stuffed. The election won’t be about whether Julia lied or all the other crap that’s filled the media for the past two years. It will be, as always, about if the voters going into the booths calculate that they’ll be better off voting out the government, or if other mob pose just too big a risk. That’s when our favourite stuntman really starts trying to push shit up hill with a pointed stick.

    We’ve only just started seeing Abbott’s personality/character issues starting to bite. The effect of the policy straight jacket he has condemned the Coalition to wear is still to come. If the heatwave continues and drought conditions become widespread, then Abbott’s position on Carbon will be crippled even before he starts trying to justfy clawing back tax cuts and welfare payment increases. As I’ve long said NBN will hold up Labor support by a couple of percent amongst those who aren’t prepared to miss out if the Libs get in, and Gonski/NDIS give Labor the platform for the next term that provides actual longed for services/cash to large populations that Abbott denies himself by promising nout but rollback.

    Continued higher coal and iron ore prices will make the idea of canning the MRRT look even dopier than before and could very well allow Swan to pull out a surprise surplus on budget night. Trying to convince voters that they will be better off by handing back billions to mining companies from a tax that doesn’t kick in when prices are low, but cops a share of windfalls and allows their superannuation to rise should be fun to watch, and that’s all before we get to Reith and Frydenberg and all the other hints that perhaps Workchoices aren’t as dead, buried and cremated as perhaps Tony would like you to believe.

    All up I’m delighted that the Lib’s AWU desperation put a floor under their poll loses late last year and locked Abbott in. As always it’s the assessment of risk. In 2010 a flake like Abbott could get desperately close because the ALP made themselves look risky and their new leader stumbled rather than grasping the advantages of office. This year the risk equation is very different. Gillard has been tempered by fire. She is cold hard steel now. With low inflation, low unemployment, and low interest rates, as well as a record to run on she is the low risk default position. The extra years in the position don’t help Abbott at all however. Familiarity trully does seem to be breeding contempt, and the oh-so-obvious stunts he uses to try and solve his problems are obeing the law of diminishing returns. The question I suspect a very very large number of voters will be asking themselves in the silence of the booth is ‘can I risk Tony Abbott becoming Prime Minister’?

    All the 2PP poll wins in the world won’t save his arse if they do.

  37. DisplayName

    kakuru, go back and read your first line of your post @ 97. It’d be better as: “What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on FEMALE leaders.”

    There’s no reason to accept his adjective.

  38. pedant

    leone @ 106: well, actually, by that logic we don’t elect governments either, we elect individual representatives. But it’s a pretty odd logic, akin to saying that in the US they don’t elect the President, just the members of the Electoral College (which is technically correct, but ignores the political reality).

  39. Jackol

    Is anyone else scared by the fact that 44% of the surveyed people preferred FPTP to anything?

    How is it possible for anyone who has thought about it for a split second to prefer FPTP? Or have I answered my own question there?

  40. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Foreign Minister @BobJCarr will join us on #AfternoonLive to discuss the situation in #Syria and #Mali. 5.15pm AEDT #auspol”

  41. Lord Barry Bonkton

    CTar1@104


    LBB – Disinfectant highly recommended.

    Please do J M as well.

    She/he (JM )has too much filth from constant contact with the Daily terror/ Alan Jones/ Bolty shows .Would need a acid dip to clean that.

  42. Lynchpin

    ratsak, 111 – great post.

  43. Son of foro

    [Pity, because I found the guy last week (Ben Knights?) tolerable – spoke like a normal human being and actually seemed interested in the people he was talking to or talking about, unlike anyone else at the ABC.]

    Ben Knights did a great job. He used the revolutionary approach of asking someone a question and then listening to their answer.

    It’s obviously a technique that’s missing from the ABC ‘How to Be a STAR!!!!!’ (Uhlmann, Lewis et al) training manual.

  44. briefly

    [In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.

    What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on failed FEMALE leaders.

    What have you rabid Tories got against women? It’s getting kinda creepy. I can see why you’re a huge fan of Abbott’s.]

    Maybe the troll has not heard. TA is going to have a sex change and will become the first transgendered LOTO in recorded history. This comes following his Epiphany, and because he has decided he can be anything he wants to be.

  45. pedant

    Jackol @ 114: Just under 68% of those who voted in the UK referendum in 2011 preferred FPTP. There are some arguments in its favour, though I don’t necessarily agree with them. For example, it can be argued that preferential voting empowers minor parties, which some would see as undesirable.

  46. Geoff

    So many labor trolls on this site.
    And in typical labor style if someone comes in with a different view they troll them by all things calling them a troll.

    please please someone say that this current Government is doing a good job. The replies on this are so funny I need to top it off with a punchline!

  47. CTar1

    LBB – I hope Zena came equipped with a broken down lawn mower?

    J M – If you’re a genuine poster of any type: very welcome. But you seemed to have arrived in some suspicious company.

  48. DisplayName

    pedant @ 113
    In any case, JG got in on her own merit last election. We had a hung parliament and unlike TA she was able to convince 3rd parties to support her.

  49. confessions

    By far the worst pm was howard. Lazy populist do nothing tory ideologue with almost zero achievements. No wonder he lost his seat.

  50. confessions

    Good comment ratsak

  51. Sohar

    Yes, Howard is by far the worst PM in my lifetime. Can’t think of anyone who comes close to him in that area.

  52. Lord Barry Bonkton

    William , how can I load a photo onto a comment ? Have tried the cut and paste , but no paste ?

  53. victoria

    Fabulous post ratsak

  54. CTar1

    LBB – Crikey doesn’t allow that. (Not a William thing).

    PB Xmas Tragics does if you want to try there.

  55. Lord Barry Bonkton

    confessions@124


    By far the worst pm was howard. Lazy populist do nothing tory ideologue with almost zero achievements. No wonder he lost his seat.

    And just to rub it in , lost it too a woman ! and wrecked his Liberal party .
    CTar1 ,sorry no mower , they are $25.00

  56. Lord Barry Bonkton

    CTar1@130


    LBB – Crikey doesn’t allow that. (Not a William thing).

    PB Xmas Tragics does if you want to try there.

    Thanks , I thought i was doing something wrong !

  57. Meguire Bob

    Geoff @ 121

    Labor is in command

    They are the only party willing to work wiht the rest of the parliament , to govern for Australia

    Where the coalition particular abbott only wants to govern for abbott , and stuff the people of Australia

  58. CTar1

    ratsak – Nice.

    [The effect of the policy straight jacket he has condemned the Coalition to wear is still to come.]

    And the fire jacket! 😆

  59. J M

    CTar1 – thanks for the welcome, but as Geoff said, it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.

  60. Geoff

    Now that is faith ratsack. A Labor campaign that has a focus’ on Tony Abbot will fail.
    Problem with Labor is at the moment is that is the only thing they can run a campaign on.
    Julia Gillard’s Goose is cooked and can only pray for Liberal party balls up. Best she can do now is sand bag. All marginal seat will be gone, best focus on keeping seats.
    It is a sad state of affairs I know but the Labor party is just a shadow of what it use to be. Time to rebuild.

  61. DisplayName

    CTar1 – thanks for the welcome, but as Geoff said, it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.

    54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

    The guy can’t even remember what he posted a page back.

  62. BH

    [Pity, because I found the guy last week (Ben Knights?) tolerable – spoke like a normal human being and actually seemed interested in the people he was talking to or talking about, unlike anyone else at the ABC.]

    I also found Ben Knights watchable. Not necessarily better than Leigh Sales but 200% better than Uhlmann who is a right turnoff.

    It’s a bit like RNBreakfast when Fran Kelly is away. The replacement, whoever it is, always asks questions listens and then discusses with no aggression. Much better value for the listener or telly watcher.

  63. J M

    DisplayName – sorry? Besides, I am female. J is for Jenny.

  64. guytaur

    @stevesilberman: Researchers liberate hundreds of PDFs to Twitter to honor @aaronsw’s memory. http://t.co/WBbg7yQQ

  65. Tom the first and best

    53

    Gough Whitlam was much better than Churchill. He is not more racist than most other politicians were like Churchill was.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/not-his-finest-hour-the-dark-side-of-winston-churchill-2118317.html?origin=internalSearch

  66. lizzie

    J M

    After publication of polls, we often get some deliberately foolish rants so we get a bit suspicious. But logical arguments from right-wingers are tolerated well, and even welcomed :).

    It’s not quite 99%. It’s just that the strongest Labor supporters are more vocal here.

  67. Geoff

    @Meguire Bob
    If Labor is in command then why does everything get blamed on Tony Abbott?
    If only 10% of the effort of blaming Tony Abbott was put into analysing policy then we might have decent robust working policies.

  68. guytaur

    @davemcclure: Anonymous Appears To Have Hacked MIT Website, Leaves Swartz Tribute http://t.co/Gh2JHwVz via @TechCrunch

  69. J M

    Chris Uhlmann, unlike most other ABC presenters (like Cassidy), isn’t sickeningly Labor biased. Knights has been good too, but I cannot stand Sales.

  70. Carey Moore

    To be fair, the way Coalition hacks read on here, is exactly the way the Labor hacks do. (i.e. premature gloating, non-constructive criticism and demonisation of the other side etc) so it’s a bit hypocritical to throw accusations of being a blind party stooge.

  71. DisplayName

    J M @ 139

    DisplayName – sorry? Besides, I am female. J is for Jenny.

    J M @ 135

    CTar1 – thanks for the welcome, but as Geoff said, it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.

    J M @ 54

    54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

    My italics.

  72. lizzie

    J M

    Hi, Jenny.

    Sohar

    Leigh Sales said she has some sort of wog and regrets she won’t be on 7.30 tonight.

  73. Meguire Bob

    Geoff

    The other way around news ltd, abbott /coalition blame labor

    For not letting abbott get into the lodge at christmas 2011

  74. dave

    Sohar@126


    Yes, Howard is by far the worst PM in my lifetime. Can’t think of anyone who comes close to him in that area.

    howard was also the worst Treasurer since WW2 –

    The Trilogy of misery –

    Unemployment over 10%
    Inflation over 10%
    Interest rates over 10%

    ALL at the sametime.

    Then as PM he wasted the windfall income of Mining Boom Mk1.

  75. guytaur

    Geoff

    Feeling the heat hey? Maybe if Abbott did policy instead of No No No all the time. Or stunts all the time. Great meme on twitter for that.

    Instead all you get from Abbott is negative. So that is what the public takes out. Negative Abbott.

  76. J M

    lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.

  77. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: On #TheDrum with Tim Palmer – @MikeSeccombe from The Global Mail, NSW Greens MP @greencate, Julian Leeser from ACU and @KRuddMP 6pm AEDT”

  78. DisplayName

    J M @ 54

    54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

    J M @ 153

    lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.

    My italics.

  79. lizzie

    J M

    Yes, definitely Labor biased, but we prefer to call ourselves “progressives” 😉

    I’d like you to stay for a while. It might be interesting to have a “genuine National” on board.

  80. J M

    DisplayName – I am not seeing any contradiction there. I am a Colaition supporter, and I had a go at Labor supporters grasping to approval ratings. What is your point?

  81. BH

    [how can I load a photo onto a comment ]

    Not so good for those of us watching downloads if the site is packed with photos.

    Did anyone have the pleasure of seeing Graham Morris on SkyAgenda? A new year but the same old, same old, but Simon Banks managed to get a good response in to the rhetoric re bad government. Morris gets lots once facts are mentioned.

  82. DisplayName

    Let me be blunt. You’re a blatant hypocrite.

  83. Carey Moore

    [lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.]

    Well just remember, the majority doesn’t actually get to decide who stays and who goes. Only the guy who runs the board and, as far as I can tell, there are no actual rules about having to have any political beliefs here, so even if you are in the minority and shouted down, you’re within your right as this is a politics board, not a Left/ALP one.

    Having said that, it doesn’t mean you will be exempt from disagreement 😛

  84. confessions

    Dave

    Indeed. As I said before his favourable lasting legacies are few and far between

  85. dave

    Geoff@143

    If only 10% of the effort of blaming Tony Abbott was put into analysing policy then we might have decent robust working policies.

    The developed world are saying Australia already have ‘decent robust working policies’ and they would swap with us anytime.

    abbott has no policies – apart from sacking people and reducing working conditions for everyone else.

  86. Geoff

    Meguire Bob
    Labor has formed a Government therefore they have responsibilities.

    To blame an opposition for a Government’s actions is a fallacy.

    Tony Abbot and the coalition are being a tough opposition and I am the first to put my hand up and say they have crossed the line on occasion. But to blame them for the current state of affairs hhmm….

  87. Laocoon

    [The Coalition will use a parliamentary vote to try to force Treasurer Wayne Swan to reveal what the minerals resource rent tax has collected as the Greens called for an immediate cap to state royalties and a broadening of the levy…]
    http://afr.com/p/national/coalition_pressures_labor_on_mrrt_rSid4y6KXqx3N9ZiB4wzzM

  88. guytaur

    Geoff

    Abbott is a do nothing opposition. He has got no legislation passed. Not even blocked any.

    He cannot convince anyone of his way so does not even try. Instead he tries no no no and stunts to look tough while being amongst the weakest Opposition leaders we have ever seen.

  89. Jackol

    Pedant – yes, I am aware of the vote in the UK.

    They at least were faced with a change to their system, and a (FUD) campaign against change, so I’m willing to allow them a little F/U/D.

    A poll of Australians, who have lived with non-FPTP for many decades, and yet almost a majority have said FPTP is their preferred voting mechanism – ie presumably they would prefer change from the existing system to FPTP.

    That’s scary.

    I’d be curious as to how the question was asked (ie was FPTP described as “the person who receives the most votes wins”).

  90. guytaur

    Now Mr Rudd on the Drum

  91. Geoff

    @J M I am not sure what display name is on about either.

    @displayname Please illustrate this hypocrisy.

  92. J M

    DisplayName – fair enough, that was immature, but the other side does it too. Not saying that two wrongs make a right, it’s immature all round.

    Lizzie – you seem nice, thanks for the warm welcome.

    Carey – true, although I wasn’t saying that it’s anyone’s fault, just seems weird, because I have been reading this board for a while, and it seems to be literally about 95% or so. Any idea why?

  93. guytaur

    @AP: Internet freedom activist’s suicide raises questions about how harshly to prosecute computer crimes: http://t.co/eiU3rHTg – VW

  94. guytaur

    @1petermartin: Surely not. MT @HughdeKretser Want a job in the WeetBix factory? Sanitarium says you must “align with our Christian based principles

  95. BH

    [I’d like you to stay for a while. It might be interesting to have a “genuine National” on board.]

    JM – I agree with lizzie. Which electorate are you in?

  96. confessions

    Laocoon

    So more pathetic stunts then? Honestly sloppy is just hopeless.

  97. DisplayName

    @J M I am not sure what display name is on about either.

    @displayname Please illustrate this hypocrisy.
    Geoff @ 167

    It’s settled.

    J M @ 168

    DisplayName – fair enough, that was immature, but the other side does it too. Not saying that two wrongs make a right, it’s immature all round.

    Thank you, and I agree.

  98. Son of foro

    [Labor supporters grasping to approval ratings]

    Hardly. By the time the election comes around Australians will have had around five years of Abbott as LOTO. Opinions on him vary, true, but only from mild dislike to outright revulsion, with an added dash of mockery for good measure. After five years of wishing he’d go away you think Australians are going to make Abbott PM and be stuck with him for another couple of years? Possible but unlikely.

    People already switch off whenever Abbott comes on the tv; they already cringe every time they hear him; even Coalition supporters shudder at the thought of being represented overseas by Abbott. Face it: as a nation we’re sick of Tony Abbott. Put Abbott in the Lodge? Nope.

    The only way the Coalition will win the election is with a fresh face, but they won’t do that for fear of tearing themselves apart. That’s why Labor is confident and Abbott is looking increasingly distressed. Or maybe it’s just the botox …

  99. guytaur

    @abcnews: The Australian share market held onto gains today despite the release of weak economic data on the domestic economy: http://t.co/DoX8Ayou

    On the Drum they are talking surplus

  100. guytaur

    @EssentialVision: 41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 4%) disapprove #auspol http://t.co/9fIvtXB4

  101. guytaur

    “@JuliaGillard: A Watch and Act is in place for a large fire which is burning uncontrolled in the Warrumbungle National Park to the West of Coonabarabran.JG”

  102. pedant

    Jackol @ 165: Yes it would be interesting to see how the question was posed. On your point that people have lived with preferential voting for years, bear in mind that people aren’t just voting these days in parliamentary elections, but also union elections, NRMA elections, polls run by media sites, and so on; so quite a lot of Australians will in fact have encountered FPTP. And if you are voting in a safe seat, or if you are voting for a major party, the requirement for you to express later preferences is nothing but a burden, since they won’t influence the result.

  103. BH

    JM – this board is more progressive oriented whereas sites like Menzies House are dominated by Coalition RWers with progressives hounded out.

    People gravitate to those with similar views I guess altho we have several LNP voices here and it adds diversity.

    You will find that we will slay you(in a kindly way) with facts if you use Abbott’s fear tactics and the economics of Hockey & Joyce.

    The internet is brilliant for finding actual quotes from pollies – Abbott and LNP suffer badly from speaking with forked tongue to different audiences. Bludgers can find those quotes in a flash.

    Please bring your National Party perspective to the discussions

  104. zoomster

    ‘This board’ is biased towards people who can put forward and defend an argument, rather than merely spouting lines they’ve picked up around the place.

    If it’s Labor biased, it’s because Labor supporters have more to work with.

    If you don’t want your lines to be challenged, you won’t find this a comfortable place to post – so why bother? There are plenty of sites where you can spout whatever rubbish you want and be welcomed with open arms.

    If you’re confident that your arguments will stand up to scrutiny, you’ll be fine.

  105. J M

    BH – thanks. My electorate is Parkes, NSW. What’s your’s?

  106. davidwh

    JM there are a few Coalition supporters here however most of us aren’t Abbott supporters. Welcome aboard.

    You need to be around and see Rummel and Moderate Liberal in full flight. They manage to hold their own most times.

  107. guytaur

    JM

    Hope you and yours are safe and not under fire threat.

  108. davidwh

    Sorry Modern Liberal. I just call him ML these days as it is much easier.

  109. guytaur

    @daveyk317: “Let’s talk about Coal”. Full page spread on page 9 of the Financial Review. Interesting..#ClimateCrisis http://t.co/5BBB67XI

  110. poroti

    guytaur

    [On the Drum they are talking surplus]
    Please please please let there be a suplus. The sight of HoJo,jowls flapping,doing bluster at an oplympic level as he tries to dismiss the surplus would be comedy gold.

  111. guytaur

    Poroti

    Agreed.

  112. J M

    son of foro – I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on, and I know that I am not alone there. I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak, and Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated. 54-46 to start the year, too.

  113. J M

    son of foro – I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on, and I know that I am not alone there. I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak, and Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated. 54-46 to start the year, too.

  114. davidwh

    Well I always thought the 2012/2013 surplus was a dream Swan was hoping for but never really possible.

  115. poroti

    J M

    [I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak]
    Do you also turn off when Abbott et al come on to spout the same old same old three word slogans aka LNP polly speak ? What are you main beefs about the government ?

  116. J M

    zoomster and BH, I will put forth my arguments and accept disagreement, that’s the point of debating, right? As long as it’s done in a mature way (and I won’t repeat the ‘pathetic’ Laborite comment from before, I apologise for that), as long as others don’t also resort to name-calling, and we can disagree in a relatively amicable manner.

    david – as a fellow Coalition supporter, why don’t you like Abbott?

  117. Laocoon

    ‘fess

    Perhaps just a stunt. But maybe, they could stitch up a deal with some of the independents and Greens to get the information out.

    Not a major point. But the potential for a defeat of the government on the floor of the parliament – which would play well; this was I think the Andrew Elder observation a little while back

  118. guytaur

    Wow Tim Palmer on the Drum sticking up for gays against religion.

  119. Ratsars

    J M @# 189
    ”I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on,

    The mating call of the “do not disturb my preconceived opinions, I do not want to deal with the facts” person.

  120. Meguire Bob

    John Howard will be the worst pm, Australia had imo

    What would have been interesting , lets say the coalition did win the election in 2007, and howard lost his seat

    Would Howard would have claimed victory or the deputy become the stand in pm

  121. Meguire Bob

    Would Howard have claimed victory or the deputy become the stand in pm

  122. Fran Barlow

    J M

    [it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.]

    There are other coalition supporters here (eg Rummel; ModLib, Davidwh) and in my recollection they aren’t called trolls (at least by most). There are a couple here who avow their support for the ALP who are widely deemed as trolls (everyone knows who they are).

    This is a very pro-ALP site, but generally if you do better than zombie talking points you will get a civil hearing, which is not the same thing as saying that everyone is civil. It’s on you to bring an argument you can defend and avoid gratuitous flaming/sarc.

  123. pedant

    Son of foro @ 174: “By the time the election comes around Australians will have had around five years of Abbott as LOTO. Opinions on him vary, true, but only from mild dislike to outright revulsion, with an added dash of mockery for good measure.”

    JM @ 189: “Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated.”

    Two thoroughly overcooked claims from opposite corners. The ALP supporters here need to come to terms with the fact that some people in fact approve of (and even like) Mr Abbott. And clearly some Australians hate Ms Gillard, but plenty of others don’t. (And JM, to say that she’s hated more than any other PM (going back to 1901) is a BIG claim, though it may be true in parts of Parkes.)

  124. CTar1

    J M (& Geoff) – Feel free to post.

    Hand grenade rollers annoy everyone.

    If you’ve got something to say other than “Jiliars a Bitch” you’ll be welcome here.

    All sorts of interesting discussion happens here, and it’s a great source of info on almost anything – just ask your question (medical, services, general ‘I’ve always wanted to know’, etc.)

  125. davidwh

    JM because he struggles with the important issues such as consistent and coherant policies and is too quick to attack with little self control when he has gone too far. He changes his mind to suit his audience/circumstances. He has shown no willingness to look for a compromised position on important issues rather taking the contrary position for purely political advantage. He has not shown to me that he has the leadership skills necessary to be our PM.

    Having said that our PM has her faults as well so we are faced with a difficult choice come the next election assuming both current leaders retain their positions.

  126. guytaur

    Kevin Rudd on now

  127. gigi

    ” Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated.”

    JM
    Keep your over-simplistic generalisations to yourself, please.

  128. Laocoon

    pedant @ 178

    [the requirement for you to express later preferences is nothing but a burden…]
    For the Senate, one can number one box

    I would imagine for most House seats, there would be fewer than 10 numbers to fill in.

    Does not seem too burdensome to me

  129. guytaur

    “@mariscontact: SOS from Fukushima! Acute lukemia patients are emerging! JPN gov. strangely stopped collecting leukemia statistics in Fukushima and Miyagi!”

  130. briefly

    [162
    Geoff

    Meguire Bob
    Labor has formed a Government therefore they have responsibilities.

    To blame an opposition for a Government’s actions is a fallacy.

    Tony Abbot and the coalition are being a tough opposition and I am the first to put my hand up and say they have crossed the line on occasion. But to blame them for the current state of affairs hhmm….]

    Well, the logic is correct but the conclusions are wrongly stated.

    The LNP deserve no credit for any of the achievements of the Government. Io the contrary, they have stood in futile opposition to everything – on the NBN, on the carbon price, on NDIS and Gonski and education in general, on economic, budget and tax policies, on middle class welfare, defence, foreign policy, resource policy, health and immigration. In all these areas, the Government has been running a tight ship while the LNP have been trying to scuttle things.

    So you’re right. None of the credit belongs with Abbott and his bunch of sooks.

  131. davidwh

    My nominations for our least liked PM is a toss up between Fraser and Keating. Fraser because he left it to Hawke to do the hard yards on structural reform and should hang his head in shame because he did and Keating just because he is a really difficult person to like.

  132. lizzie

    [Mari Takenouchi ‏@mariscontact
    SOS from Fukushima! Acute lukemia patients are emerging! JPN gov. strangely stopped collecting leukemia statistics in Fukushima and Miyagi!]

  133. The Finnigans

    On the day that “Rudd’s time as PM eclipsed by Gillard”. Guess who pops up to do a “lool at moi, look at moi” like “when I called on Libya blah blah blah ….”

  134. guytaur

    Drum cut Rudd off as he was talking about positive government reforms

  135. DisplayName

    The mating call of the “do not disturb my preconceived opinions, I do not want to deal with the facts” person.

    What if those opinions were conceived after a lot of observation? Then it’s really just an energy saving strategy :).

    I guess what we should ask JM what might signal to her that she doesn’t need to turn off the TV when JG comes on. There are, after all, plenty of things she might be paying attention to.

  136. leone

    I bet the real Bob Carr wishes he could say this –
    [Senator Bob Carr ‏@BobCarrFM
    I’m wondering why – wasn’t invited to appear on @ABCthedrum instead of has-been @KRuddMP. I’m the Foreign Minister after all.]

    And this –
    [Senator Bob Carr ‏@BobCarrFM
    Why don’t you mention atrocities by the Syrian Rebels?@KRuddMP]

  137. Laocoon

    Pedant @ 199

    Continuing that train of thought, the Essential “Strongly Disapprove” trend of the leaders over 2012 caught my eye today:

    [Gillard: improving trend
    12 Mar 32%
    12 Jun 34%
    10 Sept 27%
    10 Dec 28%
    14 Jan 26%

    Abbott: stuck in a groove
    12 Mar 29%
    12 Jun 30%
    10 Sept 29%
    10 Dec 31%
    14 Jan 30%]

  138. pedant

    Laocoon @ 204: You can number a single box for the Senate provided that you are prepared to accept one of a limited number of preference orderings as your vote. But if, for example, you want to vote for all the women candidates, you will have to number the lot. Regarding the House, two points can be made. First, plenty of voters have in fact found it too difficult to number all the squares: on this, see several recent threads on Antony Green’s blog. Secondly, even those voters who manage to get the numbering right might well be struck by the pointlessness of having to show preferences which are not going to be counted. It’s impossible for a candidate who polls more than one third of the formal vote to be excluded, so anyone who votes for a candidate certain to poll more than a third is being forced to engage in a pointless charade when marking later preferences.

  139. leone

    JM
    You can turn off the PM off if you like. Fair’s fair. I turn Abbott off every time he appears. I have no interest in the ravings of badly brought up, immature, self-centred, aggressive alpha males with over-inflated entitlement issues.

  140. guytaur

    @BBCBusiness: VIDEO: Lagarde: Eurozone economy improving http://t.co/RAbJLPZW

  141. lizzie

    guytaur

    If you’re listening to Rudd, he said he was going to recommend arming the Syrian rebels? Has he done so?

  142. confessions

    Lao

    Yes a possibility. In think it would fail tho.

  143. guytaur

    lizzie

    Yes. Bob Carr agrees from what I caught earlier

  144. guytaur

    @MolksTVTalk: The important story of the last massacre of Indigenous Australians, told by their descendents – #Coniston 9:30pm, @ABCTV. #MustWatch

  145. gigi

    leone

    Bob Carr spoke on abc24 at 5.15pm. As usual he spoke really clearly and with authority while handling the constant questions about KR diplomatically.

  146. Geoff

    @Guytaur
    Why does it always come back to Tony Abbott for? He has not formed government. (unless all of Australia has missed something over the last 2-3 years)

    You say he is alway negative. What is this based on?
    Are you a 6pm new lite person? Or do you equally listen to speeches from the PM and the the opposition leader?
    Is it based on how pieces of legislation Tony Abbott has blocked in parliment? If so then you might as well call him Julia Gillard butt kisser for amount that has voted in the positive.

    “He has got no legislation passed. Not even blocked any.”

    He has not blocked any legislation? or he has not tabled any legislation to be blocked? I am not sure what you mean. Either way that is a very large Negative brush you have used.
    Is it Abbott that is Negative? or is it a smear campaign based his opposition of big ticket items?

  147. confessions

    Finns

    Yes its so transparent. Rudd seems a very disturbed individual.

  148. briefly

    leone, I’ve become curious about TA. Partly I watch to see what role he will try out next. Partly I watch to see if he can remember his lines, or has formed an original thought at all. But mostly I watch because it’s free and will soon be over.

  149. Meguire Bob

    Geoff

    Why is the liberal page stuck at 2010 , do they have any new policies?

    It shows what kind of a leader Abbott is , he doesnt believe in moving forward only backwards

  150. Fran Barlow

    Davidwh:

    [My nominations for our least liked PM is a toss up between Fraser and Keating.]

    For me, Fraser was one — due largely to 1975 but also there was Jim Staples and Dollar Sweets …

    Howard would be the other. Much as I could not have imagined anyone worse than Fraser 30 years ago, Howard makes Fraser look respectable. Had it not been Fraser who had brought Howard into prominence the gulf would be even larger.

    Fraser, since losing in 1983, has acted in ways that have made him seem a lot less obnoxious and at times, perhaps even sympathetic.

  151. guytaur

    Geoff

    Minority Parliament. It is possible for LNP to combine with Cross Benches and submit own legislation against Labor vote

  152. Geoff

    @briefly
    I would really hate to see a leaky boat if after 5 years we have 150billion in debt. wow tight ship indeed.

    Also to your previous comment I know you were trolling but I would vote for a transgender Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard. Its not about gender sorry to squash that labor lie She is just doing a terrible job.

  153. sprocket_

    only in Queensland?

    [Since the election of the Queensland LNP Newman Government on 24 March 2012 there has been a steady output of ideological revisionism aimed at bolstering the concept of monarchy in Queensland.

    These high tea warriors have:

    changed the Queensland government logo back to the Queensland Coat-of-Arms;
    named the new Supreme Court after the current British monarch;
    moved Labour Day public holiday from the historically traditional 1 May to the first Monday in October and returned the Queen’s Birthday Holiday to June;
    proposed changing Senior Counsel back to Queen’s Counsel (QC); and
    insisted Queensland pass individual legislation to ratify the royal succession change rather than a blanket federal approach.
    The hand behind these changes appears to be the Queensland LNP Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie, the second-term Member for Kawana who turns 31 on 25 January 2013.]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/queensland-lnp-continues-to-spin-backwards/

  154. Geoff

    @Guytaur anything is possible but likely? no.

    If this was the case then we would have gone back to an election a long long time ago.

  155. guytaur

    Geoff

    We may get surplus. Iron ore price and now that breaking news from BBC I posted regarding Europe

  156. zoomster

    The majority of legislation has always gone through Parliament with bi partisan support.

    I think it was Pyne who claimed that 85% of legislation under the current government had the support of both parties.

    It would be interesting to know what the figure was for past governments – my impression is that it’s usually much higher than that, at about 95% or so.

  157. guytaur

    Geoff

    See other past minority governments. Opposition has got legislation passed without fall of government.

    Its not going to happen because its Abbott. No trust.

  158. Geoff

    @Guytaur
    “Minority Parliament. It is possible for LNP to combine with Cross Benches and submit own legislation against Labor vote”

    Btw the Liberal party has table legislation that has been passed with the helped of labor. But this is not your criteria is it. It has to be labor against liberal+crossbenchers

  159. Laocoon

    pedant
    [First, plenty of voters have in fact found it too difficult to number all the squares]
    Yes true enough. Exacerbated by the OPV here in NSW (i.e. different systems)

    (In fact, an older gentleman asked for my assistance on that very point in the booth at the last federal election; fortunately, he was voting the right way, so I faced no moral dilemma 😀 :evil:)

  160. BK

    Belated apologies to the Dawn Patrollers!
    When I got up very early this morning there was no internet connection. It was not restored until, I am told, about lunch time.
    So better luck tomorrow morning I say.

  161. deblonay

    Re Carr V Rudd on atrocities by Syrian Rebels..as raised by an earlier post
    ________________________

    This terrible story of the beheading of a Syrian Christian/Cathoic by Jihardist rebels in Syria is from Catholic nun.now speaking in Europe ….who like most of Syria’s large Christian community seems to be sticking with Assad,fearful of the El Quidea backed fundamentalist rebels
    But it is a terrible story I must warn you

    So Rudd may have a very good point which Carr sticking close to US policies as he does …seems to ignore !

    http://friendsofsyria.wordpress.com/2012/12/30/obama-backed-fsa-beheaded-christian-and-fed-him-to

  162. guytaur

    Geoff

    You want to claim a tough leader. Well a tough leader would get something passed the ALP was against

  163. poroti

    guytaur

    [See other past minority governments. Opposition has got legislation passed without fall of government.

    Its not going to happen because its Abbott. No trust]
    Good point. The oppo could have got a lot of things passed if they were willing to put forward positive positions. If the Indies supported them the gov would go along if only to save face.Unfortunately with the mad monk in charge NO was all they could say.

  164. victoria

    BK

    Good to see you are Okay. You were missed. 🙂

  165. briefly

    [222
    Geoff

    @Guytaur
    Why does it always come back to Tony Abbott for? He has not formed government. (unless all of Australia has missed something over the last 2-3 years)

    You say he is alway negative. What is this based on?]

    This list is not exclusive – there’s Malice, Deceit and Denial. Then, there is Contempt. Rejection. Lies and False Accusations. Vengeance. Defamation.

    Should I go on?

    He is unfit for purpose and should be returned to the shop.

  166. poroti

    Has there been any explaination as to why Crikey was totally crocked yesterday ? Hamster myxamatosis ?

  167. deblonay

    Re Abbott and Menzies House
    _____________Abbott gained a big PLUS recently from M House…which a few days ago gave a terrrible critique of Turnbull …really gave him a pounding !
    He is not popilar with the far-right of the Libs ….
    Might be an adtvantage in a way for Turnbull

  168. Geoff

    @briefly
    Are we talking about Tony or Julia here?
    You just listed Julia Gillard’s crowning achievements while she has been in office.

  169. confessions

    BK

    Glad you are okay and nothing serious

  170. deblonay

    Turnbull slated and damned by Menzies House

    WOW what a belting by his Lib ”
    “allies “?
    __________________________http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2013/01/which-coat-malcolm-turncoat-or-wastecoat.html

  171. mari

    Thanks BK for checking in we missed our Dawn Patrol round up this morning,I will let Pruneface know when I talk to him tonight he will be relieved 😉

  172. victoria

    deblonay

    They really hate Turnbull over at Menzies House. It is a joke

  173. mexicanbeemer

    I don’t accept that Gillard is this countries most hated PM.

    If social media was around in the late 1980s early 1990s their would have been plenty of vile heaped at the Hawke/Keating Government.

    Howard copped a fair bit of hatred from the left and at times from within his own party referring you to famous phone call.

    I think the Conservative side has been very hostile towards the PM but that has largely being a result of the tone set by the Liberal Party leadership that has chosen as I suspect any opposition in the current parliament would have.

    Regardless of who ever won last time under the circumstances was going to have a hard time and to the PM credit she has grown in the role and whilst she has made several mistakes but over all is politically in better shape now than 12 months ago.

    I cannot recall a PM expect maybe Curtin that could claim to be popular across the political divide and amongst the general population.

  174. BK

    mari
    Thanks for that. Now I can sleep with a clear conscience!

  175. poroti

    mexicanbeemer

    [Which coat Malcolm Turncoat, or wastecoat?]
    It appears to be another classic example of RW ranters inability to spell. 😆

  176. victoria

    The Federal Government has left the way open for an inquiry into the sexual harassment case against the former House of Representatives Speaker Peter Slipper.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/podcasts/Podcasts/radionews/episode/249678/Federal-inquiry-possible-into-Slipper-case

  177. mari

    BK 251 Your conscience is always clear BK , comes with clean living just like Pruneface and me 🙂 Will look forward to tomorrow morning round up!

  178. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    JM
    You say that Julia Guillard id the most hated PM ever. That is your opinion, but where is your evidence?
    Moreover, if you follow polls at all, you will note a steadily improving net sat rating for the PM while Abbott’s is pretty much stuck where it’s been for a considerable period of time.

  179. deblonay

    Poroti 252

    Is it bad spelling by RW or a ‘clever” play on words///waste not” waist “!

  180. Carey Moore

    Just reading some of the leadership qualities responses in the poll. I am going to hypothesise that, except maybe in a honeymoon period, leaders tend to never do well on the “out of touch with ordinary people”, “trustworthy” and “More honest…”, on account of people’s natural cynicism towards politicians…

  181. briefly

    On the debt…not that it is so big, but it has been highly responsible policy. It has helped protect demand and employment during a phase of private sector credit contraction, and has supported employment, incomes and growth. It is text book economics rather than the ideological make-believe “policies” of the right.

  182. BK

    I’m sure this story would have been linked during the day but I feel compelled to have my say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-bizarre-act-of-faith-leaves-vulnerable-unprotected-20130113-2cnf0.html
    If this ridiculous proposition gets up it will put the country back years and years. Effectively it will amplify the discriminations it is purporting to eliminate.
    I simply can’t believe it. I’m heartily sick and tired of bigotry hiding behind so called “rights”!

  183. poroti

    deblonay

    [
    Is it bad spelling by RW or a ‘clever” play on words///waste not” waist “!]
    Nowt clever over at Menzies House let alone that article.

  184. Mod Lib

    [Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 2:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Just repeating my post in the old thread.
    From Essential
    Approval of Gillard has lifted four points to 41% in the last month — her best result in almost two years — while disapproval of her has fallen to 49%. She’s still in net disapproval territory, but in contemporary Australian politics those numbers aren’t bad.

    Where’s Mod Lib?]

    Fear not- just arrived!

    The last Newspoll approval figures were what I quoted.

    [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 2:36 pm | PERMALINK
    at least Morgan is going out and talking to real people.

    Essential is just polling online coalition bots, it would appear. eg Abbott’s disapproval of only 57% is 10-15% below all other published polls.]

    Bzzzzt. Wrong: sorry!

    The last Newspoll had his disapproval at 59 (just worse than Gillard at 52

  185. briefly

    [244
    Geoff

    @briefly
    Are we talking about Tony or Julia here?]

    Tony Abbott is a weed where JG is an oak.

  186. Carey Moore

    [If this ridiculous proposition gets up it will put the country back years and years. Effectively it will amplify the discriminations it is purporting to eliminate.
    I simply can’t believe it. I’m heartily sick and tired of bigotry hiding behind so called “rights”!]

    Well said!

    And having the power to discriminate and persecute isn’t a right, it’s a privilege. Nobody is inherently entitled to privileges.

  187. poroti

    BK

    There is one thing the yanks have got right. If you take money from the government then you accept their laws. Discriminate all you like on your own money but if you get any Federal money then feck you if you want to discriminate. Should be the case here. Amazing that it is not so. Amazing ? Nah a bloody disgrace.

  188. The Finnigans

    [Yes its so transparent. Rudd seems a very disturbed individual.]

    fess, the old fart must be cursing you now

  189. leone

    briefly
    From back a bit – I try not to listen to Abbott but I do take notice of what he says. I’d rather read his musings than listen. For a start it’s quicker, no arrrrs and errr every third word. And I don’t have to look at that weird thing he does with his tongue.

  190. briefly

    [266
    leone

    briefly
    From back a bit – I try not to listen to Abbott but I do take notice of what he says. I’d rather read his musings than listen. For a start it’s quicker, no arrrrs and errr every third word. And I don’t have to look at that weird thing he does with his tongue.]

    lol

  191. guytaur

    @ABCNews24: Watch: @KRuddMP expands on his call for arming #Syria’s rebel forces, as seen on @ABCthedrum this evening http://t.co/xytJA8PE #TheDrum

  192. This little black duck

    Why is Mr Rudd talking outside his portfolio? :devil:

  193. NathanA

    Poroti, CM and BK

    My thoughts exactly, if you accept government monies there is no way you should be able to discriminate in such a manner.

  194. lizzie

    poroti
    [Discriminate all you like on your own money but if you get any Federal money then feck you if you want to discriminate.]
    Well said.
    When the Australian govt (any persuasion) allows Scientology to be called a religion, we know that the lobbyists have far too much influence.

  195. leone

    Michael Harmer was supposed to seek leave to appeal the Slipper judgement today. He hasn’t. I wonder why? Having trouble coming up with a decent reason?

  196. Michelle Rowatt

    I don’t admire Gough Whitlam, Psephos. Whitlam has the blood of the East Timorese on his hands.

    Plus who can forget his actions over the Baltic States and the South Vietnamese.

  197. BK

    Hello Nathan! Have I seen you around here before?

  198. victoria

    leone

    I thought the deadline was the 17 January?

  199. Carey Moore

    [When the Australian govt (any persuasion) allows Scientology to be called a religion, we know that the lobbyists have far too much influence.]

    I am not a fan of Scientology but it does fit the definition of a religion.

  200. zoomster

    That Menzies House article was just weird. It’s merely the author projecting what he thinks happened and then recounting it as fact.

    There’s a few like that on that site – the recent one about JG’s communism is along the same lines.

  201. poroti

    lizzie

    [When the Australian govt (any persuasion) allows Scientology to be called a religion, we know that the lobbyists have far too much influence.]
    Remember the murky dealings of the Exclusive Brethren and John Howard’s government ? A sample…

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/brethren-linked-to-howard-campaign/2005/09/15/1126750082584.html

  202. leone

    [Why is Mr Rudd talking outside his portfolio?]
    As he no longer has a portfolio to talk about there’s no reason for anyone to invite him onto The Drum or anything else. The Attention Deficit must be driving him nuts. So he has to tart himself around in the hope that someone, anyone, will invite him to do a spot somewhere. Soon, as more and more of his media contacts realise there’s no point talking to him he’ll be reduced to standing in for Big Ted on Playschool.

    Why talk about someone else’s portfolio?
    Because he’s desperate to get his mug in front of a camera, it must have been a whole few days since he last did that.
    Because he thinks he was and still could be the world’s best foreign minister and we can’t be allowed to forget that.
    He wants to remind us all that he was PM until That Woman did him in.
    He wants to draw attention away from PMJG lasting longer in the job than he did.
    He hopes that by continually promoting himself he’ll somehow be asked back as leader.
    And, in case all else fails, he’s doing job application appearances for that UN job he’s love to have.

  203. leone

    victoria
    On Friday, when all the Ashby stuff hit the media

  204. Toorak Toff

    Michelle Rowatt 274: Read Jenny Hocking’s biography and you will find that Gough’s hands were clean in a murky situation.

  205. BK

    [Remember the murky dealings of the Exclusive Brethren and John Howard’s government ? A sample…]
    Enough, poroti, enough!!!

  206. victoria

    Thanks Leone

    Harmer may have not lodged application today, but I believe the deadline is end of business on Thursday

  207. NathanA

    @BK

    Possibly, I typically lurk on sites and comment infrequently. I’m just useless at writing a sentence, changing my mind, deleting a sentence etc.

    I did forget to reply to poroti the other day, Xenopus are used for their oocytes (unfertilised eggs). The oocytes are relatively large for a single cell and make a lot of protein if you inject a gene into them. This is particularly useful in neuroscience research as the currents they elicit are easy to measure after you inject nicotinic receptors into them, for instance.

  208. ajm

    lizzie@272

    Well said.
    When the Australian govt (any persuasion) allows Scientology to be called a religion, we know that the lobbyists have far too much influence.

    They’ve tried, but the High Court, including Mr Justice Murphy, disagreed.
    Also, the WHitlam Government allowed them to conduct marriages: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientology_in_Australia

  209. BK

    Nathan
    That sentence went together very well!

  210. poroti

    BK

    [Enough, poroti, enough!!!]
    I took great note at the time of Howies playing footsies with the Exclusive Brethren because of what happened to my methodist (bad enough ) great aunt who had been stupid enough to marry into the Exclusive Brethren. She lamented about having to give up two of her great loves. Playing the piano and embroidary. But worse after ( eventually) leaving the sect she was shunned by the community and never saw her children again. They are an evil lot and Howie sucked up to them.
    This a review of a kiwi’s book of Howie’s fundyism love fest.

    [God under Howard: The rise of the religious right in Australia

    God Under Howard is a troubling expose of the unheralded, unholy marriage between religious fundamentalism and political expediency that has taken place in Canberra, a marriage that has justified and accelerated increased government intrusion in the lives of individuals while accelerating the pace of economic deregulation.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2005/02/23/1109046981178.html

  211. Laocoon

    I have commented before that I think a positive for the government’s re-election is potential for a (modest) upswing in housing construction through this year (particularly help western Sydney tradie electorates).

    I just came across the population growth numbers from ABS (latest is June 12) which shows a very marked increase in the growth rate, to 1.6%, from a low of 1.1% in March 11. This should start to feed into this housing cycle story.

    (There is a little chart on page 6 of the link, and the numbers are on page 24)

    http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/A535F84F4393C62FCA257AD7000D113E/$File/31010_jun%202012.pdf

  212. sprocket_

    [leone
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 8:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Michael Harmer was supposed to seek leave to appeal the Slipper judgement today. He hasn’t. I wonder why? Having trouble coming up with a decent reason?]

    Harmer did lodge today, according to the $550 per hour + GST man Anthony McCleland.

  213. Toorak Toff

    As a voter for well over 60 years, it is frustrating to see bloggers so often shoot the messenger rather than face facts. If a poll does not agree with the blogger’s prejudice, it is faulty; if it does, hallelujah!

    Essential seems to be saying – and has been for a long time – that Gillard and Abbott are both hated but the more unpopular Abbott is on track for a handsome win. Morgan mzy be saying something else.

    We need a lot more evidence. Queensland offers a glimmer of hope for Labor but NSW looks dire. My heart is with Labor but my head says if probably ain’t going to happen.

  214. BK

    poroti
    What a shocking experience!

  215. DisplayName

    Toorak, I assume you’re referring to the commenters here, rather than William. William is a blogger, we’re just random riff raff :P.

  216. sprocket_

    [Anthony J McClellan ‏@antmac9
    CORRO @antmac9: Michael Harmer’s Application 4 Leave 2 Appeal in #ashby #slipper case has been filed today in the Fed Court.
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite]

    Have not seen this yet – hope his reasons are better than Ashby’s – which were basically “the Judge is wrong” with no argument as to why.

  217. poroti

    NathanA

    [I’m just useless at writing a sentence, changing my mind, deleting a sentence etc.]
    Join the club 🙂 Ta muchly about the Xenopus info.Bottom line,keep on posting as the PB loungers are pretty good at working out what people mean. The PB lounge has a wide and varied pool of experts in a myriad of fields. You are another one. Heck ,as I have noted several times before, where else but PB can you get flame wars over anamorphic lenses 😆

  218. shellbell

    Harmer’s time to appeal is different from Ashby’s.

    Harmer does not have any order against him yet. This will change if the costs order which Slipper seeks against Harmer is made.

    An appeal can generally only be brought against orders not findings.

  219. Toorak Toff

    Well yes, the random riff raff liker me.

  220. sprocket_

    when the Queens castle was burning, it was many Tonys to the rescue!

    https://twitter.com/TonyIKnow/status/290692228991549442/photo/1

  221. sprocket_

    Shellbell

    see my 295.

  222. Bushfire Bill

    [… in the application lodged with the court today, Mr Ashby states that the primary judge was wrong to find Mr Harmer intended to cause harm to Mr Slipper by including “irrelevant allegations”.

    In a statement issued on behalf of Mr Ashby, his spokesman said that Mr Harmer of Harmers Workplace Lawyers would also be seeking leave to appeal on Monday.

    “Justice Rares made separate and distinct findings regarding Mr Ashby and Mr Harmer, so each presently is being separately legally represented in this Application,” the spokesman said.]

    I’m wondering what legal standing Harmer has in this case?

    He was the solicitor for Ashby, not a party to the actual case.

    Ashby instructed Harmer, not the other way around.

    Very strange. I wouldn’t have thought Harmer’s remedy, if any, lay in sticking his nose into a case of which he is not party.

  223. shellbell

    Applications for leave don’t specify errors of trial judges’ decisions. The draft notice of appeal which must accompany the application should set out the challenges.

  224. WeWantPaul

    I agree heartily that religious organizations spending tax money should be required to be different – by why should an organization that believes in no consumption of tabaco or alcohol be forced to employee a drinking chain smoker with their own money? It is an absurd proposition.

    Why should a religious body have to employee an atheist who hates them (like so many here are).

    I think your hate of religion is clouding your judgement.

  225. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    The visiting Tories have gone a bit quiet.

  226. ajm

    Just had a quick look at the Anti-Discrimination Bill.

    There doesn’t seem to be anything in it that would prevent the Commonwealth separately making it a requirement that an activity of a religion funded by the Commonwealth should not discriminate on any of the “excluded” attributes (marriage, religion, sexual oriantation, etc).

    It doesn’t seem to include a catch-all provision such as “notwithstanding anything in any other act” which is often used to cover the field.

    So I think it would still be possible for the Commonwealth to (say) specifically exclude discrimination on sexual orientation for teachers in a school funded or partly funded by the Commonwealth.

    All that the anti-discrimination bill appears to do is to protect religious bodies from being taken to court by individuals for the prescribed forms of dsscrimination but it doesn’t prevent the Commonwealth from making extra requirements where the Commonwaelth provides the funding.

    Don’t know if that is particularly clear, but to summarise I think there is still a pathway to enforce proper anti-discrimination when public money is involved. Some of the lawyers on here might be able to delve a bit further and advise us.

  227. sprocket_

    [shellbell
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 8:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Applications for leave don’t specify errors of trial judges’ decisions. The draft notice of appeal which must accompany the application should set out the challenges.]

    so is Harmer a party to the case or not?

    Will his application for leave to appeal (against whatever) eventually appear here?

    http://www.fedcourt.gov.au/case-management-services/access-to-files-and-transcripts/court-documents/ashby-v-commonwealth

    February 6 directions will be inconclusive, and one has to wonder as to the motives of those concerned.

  228. briefly

    [304
    Harry “Snapper” Organs

    The visiting Tories have gone a bit quiet.]

    Melted like ice-creams, HSO, like Mr Whippy.

  229. poroti

    Toorak Toff

    [riff raff liker me.]
    I’m a big fan of Riff Raff .As long as it is Riff Raff from the Rocky Horror Picture Show .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rtkdo7bOmJc

  230. Lord Barry Bonkton

    J M@152


    lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.

    Always been a LNP voter , but cannot vote for Abbott. Since coming here, I have seen the light and will vote Labor from now on .PM Julia Gillard will win in 2013 , and the LNP will have to sort themselves out and get rid of the OLD howard front bench, Totally .Its going to be fun watching them , just like in 2007 & 2010.

  231. briefly

    Menzies House…wot a misnomer. Menzies was many things, but he was not often as loopy as the Tea-Party braves.

  232. leone

    sprocket
    Thanks. I checked the Federal Court’s special Slipper/Ashby onlne file and there was no mention of Harmer filing today. Ashby’s application was up almost as soon as it was filed.

  233. Leroy

    http://www.abc.net.au/local/audio/2013/01/14/3669471.htm
    [4 January, 2013 6:08PM AEDT
    A look at the world in 2013 with the foreign minister
    In studio today with Richard Glover on 702 Drive was Senator Bob Carr the Foreign Minister of Australia to talk about the challenges ahead in foreign affairs and the potential of Australia’s seat on the United Nations Security Council. Listen back to the full interview here.]

  234. confessions

    [Menzies was many things, but he was not often as loopy as the Tea-Party braves.]

    His embarrassing fawning over the young Queen Elizabeth notwithstanding. 😆

  235. Leroy

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    Some context for next time armchair generals and the conservative MSM whinge about our defence cuts: http://is.gd/uDRp4R
    5:15 PM – 14 Jan 13

  236. Bushfire Bill

    Ashby’s first three counts of appeal are that Rares erred in law … well, d’oh.

    Count 4 whinges that the abuse of process finding denied Ashby the right to have his case heard… well yes, of course. That’s what abuse of process findings are all about.

    It goes on to complain that costs shouldn’t have been awarded as FWA cases don’t involve substantial awards of costs. Ashby wants to take a minor matter that should have been handled in a meeting room over a cup of tea and, after forcing everyone to spend millions defending themselves, when the case is found to be an abuse, avoid having to pay for all the trouble he’s caused.

    Count 5 says “important” matters are at stake. Every applicant reckons his case involves important matters, so pffft.

    Count 6 says its a “serious” matter of “public interest” but it wouldn’t have been if Ashby hadn’t blown it up into a Federal case.

  237. briefly

    confessions, Menzies will always be remembered for his royalist doggerel in the same as we will always remember Abbott for his dress-ups….basically the same thing at work too: tory pollies trying to be identified as something that they’re not….

  238. Gorgeous Dunny

    Geoff 222
    Is it Abbott that is Negative? or is it a smear campaign based his opposition of big ticket items?

    Can you give any logical reason, given the scale of the emergency, he would have run such an all-out public campaign against levy to assist reconstruction in the Queensland flood and cyclone emergencies?

    It was just pure bastardry based on the aim of undermining the legitimacy of Gillard’s Prime Ministership. And he got the media lackeys to back it.

    Howard passed levies of various kinds – 6 in 11 years. Some had little purpose other than to claim (by the levy) that the budget had run a surplus. What was the difference?

  239. Leroy

    David Donovan ‏@davrosz
    More naughty text messages by a certain Opposition frontbencher may be coming to light soon. (What a busy boy he’s been!) Stay tuned.

    4m Schnappi ‏@Schnappi5
    @davrosz Would they be what murphy has been hinting at or new fella ???

    David Donovan
    ‏@davrosz
    @Schnappi5 No, new ones.
    9:14 PM – 14 Jan 13

  240. briefly

    They are fakes most of the time. I have a (very dry) old Aunt who says that after a lifetime of watching, she’s come to the conclusion that most everything is just for show. She would certainly be right about TA.

  241. Bushfire Bill

    In short… Ashby has bootstrapped his own case into something far more important than it should ever have been – by getting it into the newspapers by colluding with Lewis, by going straight to court instead of mediation, by employing $500 per hour public relations consultants and so on – and now seeks to use this inappropriate amplification to impress the Federal Court into letting him appeal.

  242. briefly

    Any bold predictions on the Morgan score?

    I wont be pleased with anything under 55/45 (Labor/LNP) 🙂

  243. briefly

    More and more, JG projects power and TA projects the want of it. She is going to win on strength of purpose, on courage, duty and will.

  244. Leroy

    http://johnquiggin.com/2013/01/14/greg-hunt-cant-add-cant-read/
    [Greg Hunt: Can’t add, can’t read
    January 14th, 2013 John Quiggin

    Last time I paid attention to Opposition climate spokesman Greg Hunt, he was talking to the Oz, making absurdly inflated claims about the impact of a carbon price[1] on household electricity bills. Now he’s at it again, with a statement to Imre Salusinszky at the Oz, claiming that I endorsed Jonathan Moylan’s (reported) actions in the Whitehaven hoax, and that I supported market manipulation more generally. From that, he draws the conclusion that I have breached my legal obligation under the Public Service Act to comply with the law in all matters relating to employment, and therefore that I an not a fit and proper person to be a member of the Climate Change Authority. Here are the money paras from Salusinszky’s email to me and Hunt’s statement to the Oz ]

  245. confessions

    briefly:

    What is it about post-modern alleged conservatives that they are always trying to be something else?

    I too have an entire side of the family which are very wealthy, traditional Liberal voters. The older ones are appalled at what the Liberals have become (my father was driven to vote Labor by the Howard govt), while the younger ones happily embrace Abbott and the rabble that he leads.

    It’s hilarious seeing them pretend to be working class heroes, while living their priviledged lives. But mum’s side of the family are working class and proud of it. My grandfather never pretended to have airs and graces.

  246. leone

    Menzies’ fawning over the Queen managed to get him a nice reward – a knighthood, the position of Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports and Warden of Dover Castle, plus his very own official residence in the UK, Walmer Castle.

    Poor old Howard got nothing except a very minor award after all his years of sucking-up. I’ve always thought Janette was frantically studying family history, hoping to find some links to the aristocracy that would see her installed in Castle Howard. What a shame she had to remain just plain old Janette from Botany.

  247. BK

    leone
    Yeah. Nice try Hyacinth!

  248. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    briefly @ 307.
    Gawn, like dust in the wind. Pfft.

  249. leone

    [More and more, JG projects power and TA projects the want of it.]
    Like this –
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/bowlerbarrister/8318703483/

  250. leone

    And now – Fireman Tony The Musical.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4hQwZGOulE&feature=youtu.be

    The ending is excellent, just close your eyes and enjoy the music until then if you have had more than enough of Stunt Abbott.

  251. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    Caych you later, bludgers. Work tomorrow.

  252. confessions

    [Poor old Howard got nothing except a very minor award after all his years of sucking-up.]

    I meant what I said earlier about the Howard era producing no real lasting legacy of any note. The only thing people can identify now is gun control, for which he deserves plaudits, but this came in his first term.

    It must be awfully embarrassing to the Liberal cheersquad that there was nothing else in his subsequent 3 terms in office worth celebrating.

  253. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    Catch, that is.

  254. confessions

    Night HSO.

  255. victoria

    HSO

    Have a good night. All the best for work tomorrow

  256. ShowsOn

    FORUM ANNOUNCEMENT:

    I’m getting a new bed delivered on this coming Speed Dating Friday, so I won’t be able to participate.

    I’ll be ready to participate in speed dating Friday next week.

  257. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    Nighty night, confessions and victoria.

  258. Henry

    Well there was always the GST confessions…

    Keating was right about that too. It was hardly a reform, just shifting the buckets.

    As for Greg Hunt, he’s become a right little shit over the years hasn’t he.

  259. Danny Lewis

    Look, I admit I’m no lawyer, but like BB I have reservations about the veracity of Ashby’s “appeal”.

    Anyone would think the man has an alternative agenda 😉

  260. Henry

    Little Lleyton dying hard but sadly, still dying.
    This other bloke is 9th in the world for a reason.

  261. Danny Lewis

    Henry: I’ve never been a Hewitt fan, and I don’t believe I’m about to start now.

    Unlike Mr Affleck, I’m unlikely to allow Mr Hewitt’s pantaloons to reside under my bed 😉

  262. jeffemu

    I don’t know too much about modern aussie tennis as I gave up on it a long time ago.

    After growing up watching the proud legends we had in the sport and then having to put up with the antics of the “modern day” players.

    Reminds me of the old saying. Some of those are a few floggings short of being good blokes.

    Spoilt brats always comes to mind when I watch some of them

  263. Henry

    So I take it Danny Lewis is a nom de plume…
    4-3 on service in the third, LH down 2 sets to zip.

  264. Rossmore

    What a charming Tory MP Andrew Laming is:

    @AndrewLamingMP: Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?

  265. briefly

    confessions, I’m still at work……slow to respond…..sorry.

    These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?

    I think most behaviour is driven by normative responses – by group affiliation and iterative conformity. This enables us to “sort” out those things that we encounter in our daily lives and ensures that social cohesion is more or less spontaneous. This is an implacable force.

    In the past, social affiliation – based around signs of “class” identity, income, age, marital status, education, occupation, geography, religion and gender – was most probably much more rigid than it is today.

    These days changes of all kinds are creating a whole lot of new “axes” of identity/affiliation. This creates a lot of confusion about self/family/group identity and about what kind of conduct/s are socially acceptable. So there is a lot of role confusion. I think this is reflected in political affiliation because the traditional “markers” have lost a lot of their force.

    The mediating influences are very complex and subtle, and mean everything is a lot more dynamic. I do think that the responses we have to change itself – and to our ideas of self-and-society – are becoming more important than ever in the formation of political identity.

    From Labor’s point of view, this is about developing “confidence” that system-wide or personal resources can be found to help us all cope with change, and, in turn, sustaining confidence that the costs and the benefits of change will be “fairly” distributed. What is “fair” is highly contested of course. I think that contest is what a lot of politics consists of.

    I also think that a lot of political – as with all other social – identification is built around perceptions of status. By this I mean one’s political choices have to be consonant with other expressions of personal “value” – where “value” defines all kinds of personal/family attributes and the potential for them to improve in the future.

    By definition, normative conduct relies on inter-personal and inter-group comparisons and on a degree of self monitoring. People compare their own standing with the apparent ranking and conduct of others, and usually try to identify with relevant high-status exemplars. In my opinion, a lot of behaviour – this is going to sound terrible – is generated by opposition to the financial, social, educational and occupational mobility that might/might not be only selectively available to other groups or individuals.

    So they will resist changes that threaten the perceptions they have of themselves in relation to others. This accounts for the sometimes very bitter opposition to seemingly simple social reforms. It is a kind of fear or envy response and it operates to “keep things the way they are”. I think it is also involuntary.

  266. womble

    Evening All

    For the legal types out there is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court??? Looks to me like that is what they are asking for

  267. confessions

    Henry:

    Yes, the GST.

    So two (2) lasting reforms in 11 years in government.

    And the current lot of Liberals want to go back to this period of extraordinary stagnation, regression even.

  268. Danny Lewis

    Henry: It is indeed.

    Unless I’m about to do a Jodie Foster 😀

  269. James J

    Newspoll

    51-49 2PP to the coalition

    Primaries: ALP 38, LNP 44, Greens 9.

    Gillard: satisfied 38, dissatisfied 49
    Abbott: satisfied 29, dissatisfied 58

    Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 33

    Jan 11-13, 1152 sample

  270. womble

    Newspoll tonight???

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-winning-back-lost-ground-newspoll-20130114-2cq2p.html

    10:13PM Monday Jan 14, 2013
    3,342 online now
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    You are here: Home Breaking News National Article
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    smh.com.au

    Labor winning back lost ground: Newspoll

    Date
    January 14, 2013 – 10:12PM

    Email article
    Print

    AAP

    Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year but its resurgence appears to have come at a cost to the Greens and other parties, rather than the Coalition.

    The first Newspoll of 2013 in The Australian newspaper on Tuesday shows Labor’s support has risen six points to 38 per cent while the Coalition has dropped just two points to 44 per cent since the previous poll in December.

    The Greens retreated two points to nine per cent as did the amalgamation of other smaller parties.

    Despite the big recovery in its primary vote there were only marginal changes in personal satisfaction ratings for Julia Gillard as prime minister.
    Advertisement

    The Coalition retains a slender lead on a two-party-preferred basis, 51 to 49 per cent, but has lost three percentage points to return to the neck-and-neck position that produced a hung parliament at the 2010 election.

  271. Henry

    I was joking actually about the GST confessions.
    Like Keating I don’t consider it a reform at all – just a shifting of the buckets to capture more revenue.
    As for gun laws, call me cynical but I don’t think Howard had a choice with that. The sentiment was too strong for change post Port Arthur.

  272. briefly

    The SLUMP is back on!!!

    [350
    James J
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll

    51-49 2PP to the coalition]

  273. womble

    sorry i didn’t clean that up and James still beat me anyway – JUST 😉

    thanks James – interesting Fairfax is getting the Newspoll stuff out so quickly

    51-49 a very nice place to be 🙂

  274. Danny Lewis

    Ooops. It appears I am cross-pollinating posts between this site and the other which dare not speak its name 😉

  275. Henry

    Surprising but great newspoll.
    Game on, we are in a winning position here!
    Bring it!

  276. Henry

    Quick get this on twitter william and gazzump ghostie!

  277. briefly

    I give Abbott about a month.

  278. Henry

    That’s gotta be worth another 4 seats each way on the bludgertracker.

  279. briefly

    [355
    Danny Lewis

    Ooops. It appears I am cross-pollinating posts between this site and the other which dare not speak its name]

    Does this mean you are bi-focal, Danny?

  280. victoria

    James J

    What a very pleasant surprise. Thanks heaps!!

  281. Kevin Bonham

    J M@189


    son of foro – I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on, and I know that I am not alone there. I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak, and Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated.

    Actually Keating was the most hated PM by some margin, at least since the late 1960s.

    54-46 to start the year, too.

    54-46 from Essential is only worth 53-47. Still better than trailing, of course.

  282. briefly

    Hockey will be honing his cutlass.

  283. confessions

    [These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?]

    I do. What is the tipping point away from principle to dogma? It’s not just identity or self awareness.

    What motivates a traditional, small government Liberal to get behind a big government DLP type in Abbott? Or even a high taxing, high spending alleged Liberal in Howard?

    The mind boggles.

  284. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@214


    It’s impossible for a candidate who polls more than one third of the formal vote to be excluded, so anyone who votes for a candidate certain to poll more than a third is being forced to engage in a pointless charade when marking later preferences.

    One-third is for NT and ACT; for other states it’s one-seventh.

    While a candidate who polls that well can’t get excluded, when they are elected their votes are distributed at reduced value as a surplus. So it is not true that the voter is wasting their time in numbering preferences.

    It is, however, true that if the voter was smart about it they would probably have voted 1 for somebody inconsequential rather than vote 1 for someone who would be elected on the first ballot. Voting 1 for someone who was going to be elected on primaries anyway slightly reduces the effect of your vote. (Can explain this in detail if necessary.)

  285. pedant

    Kevin Bonham @ 368: I perhaps didn’t make it clear in my contribution that I was talking about the House of Representatives, not the Senate.

    In the Senate, I always vote up a ticket rather than down, precisely to make it less probable that my ballot paper will reach its ultimate destination at a fractional transfer value. Not that it’s likely to make any difference, but understanding how the system works gives me some small pleasure.

  286. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@369


    Kevin Bonham @ 368: I perhaps didn’t make it clear in my contribution that I was talking about the House of Representatives, not the Senate.

    Noted and my figures were wrong anyway; I’ve fixed this on the other thread.

  287. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    where is everyone?

  288. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I logged on to read the morning comments and there is nothing. wtf?

  289. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    a newspoll and no one here talking about it??????????

  290. John Hargrave

    Polls look bad for our vile PM- start packin’ the hair dryer Tim-what a bummer-no more free OS flights or tix to the footy-back to the salon.