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Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

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  • 51
    retiredleftie
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    Come on stephen t tell us how you really feel, now you away from piers ackermans blog

  • 52
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    ... I can go on and on.

    Yes, you forgot to compare Gillard to Goebbels. That always gets a great response from Alan Jones.

  • 53
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Gough Whitlam has always looked like Winston Churchill.

  • 54
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

  • 55
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Angry Birds in Space. You know you want to.
    http://www.myhappygames.com/game/30146/Angry-Birds-Space-Online.html

  • 56
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Whereas John Howard, sadly, only ever resembled himself, only not quite so tall.

  • 57
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    Meguire Bob

    Just admit Gillard is the worst PM ever and makes Gough Whitlam look like Winston Churchill. How can you possibly believe Australians will re-elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon tax lie, surplus promise down the toilet, live cattle debacle, Peter Slipper, Craig Thompson, AWU, Australia Day fiasco I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Gillard!!!!

    Before you return to Menzies House, Steohen, a couple of useful bookmarks which might improve your comprehension
    http://i.imgur.com/rbIav.jpg
    http://thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/

    On yer bike.

  • 58
    poroti
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T

    Welcome to the PB lounge. We don’t often get 2GB fans dropping by.

  • 59
    Laocoon
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    The Earl wanting to have his coal and carbon-reduction too? Appeal to party right wing??

    Malcolm Turnbull ‏@TurnbullMalcolm
    "Shale may change America, but not the climate" http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/shale-may-change-america-not-climate#.UPNbsPLDtRk.twitter … - thoughtful piece on CCS and gas.

  • 60
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T

    Well, I for one am honoured to meet the guy who carried the “Ditch the Witch” sign.

  • 61
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T,

    You should audition for ‘The House’.

  • 62
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    Just admit Abbott is the worst LOTO ever and makes Alexander Downer look like John Curtin. How can you possibly believe Australians will elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon pricing lie, surplus promises down the toilet, Sophie Mirabella, Peter Slipper, Australia Day fiasco, I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Abbott!!!!

    (Fixed; needed remarkably few changes).

  • 63
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, missed one: should be ‘Nauru’ not “Timor”

  • 64
    mari
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Just admit Abbott is the worst LOTO ever and makes Alexander Downer look like John Curtin. How can you possibly believe Australians will elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon pricing lie, surplus promises down the toilet, Sophie Mirabella, Peter Slipper, Australia Day fiasco, I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Abbott!!!!

    (Fixed; needed remarkably few changes).

    Very impressed with your editing and so few changes needed to make the original statement accurate! Pleased I logged back on to see that ;)

  • 65
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    Honestly, Essential is just a nonsense.

    The majority clearly favour Gillard over Abbott and support most of the Govts major policies/programs, yet the PV and 2PP favor the Coalition??
    Nonsense!!

  • 66
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    @46

    I am incredulous that a thinking individual would come out with this stuff.

    Out of their league here.

  • 67
    SirLeslieHammondQC*
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    Well played, zoomster!

  • 68
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    @54

    Another has escaped the 2GB box. Must be a quiet day over there.

    I often wondered what it was like to be part of a minority group (Nationals) who get somewhere between 3 and 6% of the vote.

    Also out of their league here.

  • 69
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    And it’s HI! to our new friends http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUeMFG4wjJw

  • 70
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Stephan T sounds like Desert Fox or the ex-tank WA guy but can spell.

  • 71
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Stephan T sounds like Desert Fox or the ex-tank WA guy but can spell.

    Often I wonder if William just does these to keep the Blog moving along.

  • 72
    mari
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Stephan T sounds like Desert Fox or the ex-tank WA guy but can spell.

    Often I wonder if William just does these to keep the Blog moving along.

    Cheeky ;)

  • 73
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Kevin Rudd (@KRuddMP) joins #TheDrum tonight, discussing the current situation in #Syria + #auspol. 6pm AEDT on #abcnews24”

  • 74
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    Tricot – how many seats do the Nats contest? Unlike Labor and Liberal, hardly any. Abbott will be a great PM, and I can’t wait until that happens in August/September.

  • 75
    Stephen T
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Tricot

    The sad fact is you support a PM who is totally out of her league in doing her job. In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.

  • 76
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Actually Gillard is a long way from being the worst PM.

    To qualifier surely you need to cause a recession or been brought down by a major corruption scandal or lose seat at election and Gillard has done non of those three things.

  • 77
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    JM if you are correct on the second point we can only pray you are at least half right on the first point. One is possible and the other a real challenge.

  • 78
    Sohar
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    Who let the trolls out.. who let the trolls out! Looks like Bernardi unchained the pound again.

  • 79
    Son of foro
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    ” I used to vote ALP, but never again …”

    Ah, yes, the golden oldies. They don’t write ‘em like they used to!

    I remember when every online comment from Menzies House and the IPA used to start with that classic – until it was pointed out to them that they might come across as slightlyl more believable if every single comment didn’t contain exactly the same phrases.

    Halcyon days in many ways.

  • 80
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    Stephen – also, just to add to your post, the only one elected out of the lot is Bligh. All of the others were put there, and/or did so through betrayal.

  • 81
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    More evidence of a weakening economy and poor Swannie wonders why he wont have a surplus.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/job-ads-drop-for-tenth-month-20130114-2com9.html

  • 82
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    mexi

    you not see peter martin’s article?

  • 83
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    Anna Bight was an okay premier and her performance during the floods was outstanding.

    Her defeat was due to a number of factors such as its time and the broken promise not to sell assets such as QR National.

  • 84
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    Sohar – The ‘dogs’ will certainly be on next.

    Think of the children …

  • 85
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    I met a girl at the dump on friday , and she has moved in already. Her name is Zena.

    How can I load a photo on here ??????

  • 86
    Son of foro
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    What a great club to join.

    Yep. The ‘PMs who have lost their seat’ club, that’s a bit more exclusive, albeit the sort of club one wouldn’t join if one were admitted. (Literature, mate. I know you’re a tory boy with no knowledge of the valuable things in life, so just google it.)

  • 87
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur I haven read one for a while has he written a new article or are you referring to an older article?

  • 88
    leone
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    I smell a rat.

    Stephen T can spell correctly and doesn’t fill his posts with capital letters. Even though there is a bit of exclamation mark overkill and he spelt ‘Thomson’ wrong I’m still not convinced. Stephen T will have to dumb it down a bit if he wants me to believe he’s a genuine Abbott supporter.

  • 89
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    J M

    Happy trolling.

  • 90
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    leone – I’ve already suggested it’s William just being entertaining.

  • 91
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    mexi

    Yes. About how Swan may get his surplus after all.

  • 92
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    LBB – I assume Zena needed serious washing?

  • 93
    Sohar
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    Do you think this bunch of trolls might be orchestrated by none other than Johnny “Golom” Howard? There is something Howardesque about their language.

  • 94
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib

    Will be Please with Stephen T and J M

  • 95
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    They probably came across from the Daily Telegraph :P .

  • 96
    Darn
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:38 pm | Permalink
    Tricot – how many seats do the Nats contest? Unlike Labor and Liberal, hardly any. Abbott will be a great PM, and I can’t wait until that happens in August/September

    Actually if Abbott manages to lie his way into the Lodge later this year he will an absolute embarrassment and will be gone well before the time of the 2016 poll.

  • 97
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.

    What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on failed FEMALE leaders.

    What have you rabid Tories got against women? It’s getting kinda creepy. I can see why you’re a huge fan of Abbott’s.

  • 98
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    CTar1 , just a gentle wipe over with water. The cut and paste don’t work on here ???

  • 99
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Yes the jump in Iron Ore prices is promising but is it being driven by a sustainable long term raise in demand or by spectaculars.

    And a lot will depend on how long term this improved price is for.

    http://www.petermartin.com.au/2013/01/dont-write-off-surplus.html

  • 100
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    CTar1 – please explain? Because I am a righty, I am a troll?

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