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Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

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  • 101
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Eh, kakuru, you’ve fallen into the trap of using his label for those people.

  • 102
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    We had a slight PB meltdown yesterday. I was interested to see how tweeterville was going with the proven fact that the Telecrap was deliberately posting only neg comments on the PMJG front page article.

    I know my comment wasn’t posted and it was deliberately mild.

    Any reports on hand

  • 103
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Also, I don’t think that this poll is accurate. The Coalition and Labor’s primary are both too high, IMO, and the Green’s is too low. I would love the Greens to only be on 8%, as they are far worse even than Labor, but there are too many nutters/inner city trendies, IMO, for that number to be right.

  • 104
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    LBB – Disinfectant highly recommended.

    Please do J M as well.

  • 105
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Not with you, DisplayName.

  • 106
    leone
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Poor little trolls, blindly parrotting the party line. No-one can get the poor things to understand that we don’t elect prime ministers and state premiers in this country. We elect governments and those governments choose their leaders. ‘But Alan said…’ is no excuse for such ignorance.

  • 107
    kakuru
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    ‘But Alan said…’

    The only time our friend Alan did any in-depth probing of issues was in a London public toilet.

  • 108
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    @jttozer: Growing up gay in Iran – the story of an invisible community: http://t.co/fz25D61g

  • 109
    Sohar
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    I think Leigh Sales is back on 7.5 tonight, which means I’ll watch some old episodes of Peep Show on Channel 4 via my VPN at that time. Pity, because I found the guy last week (Ben Knights?) tolerable – spoke like a normal human being and actually seemed interested in the people he was talking to or talking about, unlike anyone else at the ABC.

  • 110
    mari
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:57 pm | PERMALINK
    We had a slight PB meltdown yesterday. I was interested to see how tweeterville was going with the proven fact that the Telecrap was deliberately posting only neg comments on the PMJG front page article.

    I know my comment wasn’t posted and it was deliberately mild.

    Any reports on hand

    I think on twitter and on PB there were at least 10 writers that I know of wrote comments to DT article, a few wrote negative JG as well as positive under different names, I am sure you know which ones were published. Neither of mine were published, BK managed to get one in, at about 100 DT had to show they were “balanced” think I real somewhere is was about 120 negative to 7 positive? :)

  • 111
    ratsak
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    All of which leaves me as confident as ever that the ALP will win this year’s election.

    Whatever the real numbers are, it is pretty obvious that there are an awful lot of people, including some pb posters, who are expressing a preference for some theoretical (dare I say ‘mythical’) Liberal government. But the idea of an actual Tony Abbott as actual Prime Minister – ah not so much.

    It’s pretty safe to say you prefer a Lib government in the polls. All the media have been saying it’s going to happen, you can just go with the flow, and it doesn’t actually make Tony Abbott Prime Minister, so no harm no foul. And anyway, if you can’t blame the guv’mint for all that ails ya between elections, then what’s the bloody point of having one?

    As long as Gillard can keep chipping away at the dissatisfieds over the next 6 months then she’ll be able to re-run Howard’s 2004 trust election campaign and win solidly against Abbott. Once the actual campaign starts and then in the booth itself it’s no longer theoretical, we’re playing for keeps. A vote for the Coalition isn’t a vote for some imagined Howard restoration, or potential Turnbull government.

    A vote for Tony Abbott as Prime Minister will be a real vote. For Tony Abbott. As Prime Minister.

    If Labor can’t run an effective campaign on that alone they truly are stuffed. The election won’t be about whether Julia lied or all the other crap that’s filled the media for the past two years. It will be, as always, about if the voters going into the booths calculate that they’ll be better off voting out the government, or if other mob pose just too big a risk. That’s when our favourite stuntman really starts trying to push shit up hill with a pointed stick.

    We’ve only just started seeing Abbott’s personality/character issues starting to bite. The effect of the policy straight jacket he has condemned the Coalition to wear is still to come. If the heatwave continues and drought conditions become widespread, then Abbott’s position on Carbon will be crippled even before he starts trying to justfy clawing back tax cuts and welfare payment increases. As I’ve long said NBN will hold up Labor support by a couple of percent amongst those who aren’t prepared to miss out if the Libs get in, and Gonski/NDIS give Labor the platform for the next term that provides actual longed for services/cash to large populations that Abbott denies himself by promising nout but rollback.

    Continued higher coal and iron ore prices will make the idea of canning the MRRT look even dopier than before and could very well allow Swan to pull out a surprise surplus on budget night. Trying to convince voters that they will be better off by handing back billions to mining companies from a tax that doesn’t kick in when prices are low, but cops a share of windfalls and allows their superannuation to rise should be fun to watch, and that’s all before we get to Reith and Frydenberg and all the other hints that perhaps Workchoices aren’t as dead, buried and cremated as perhaps Tony would like you to believe.

    All up I’m delighted that the Lib’s AWU desperation put a floor under their poll loses late last year and locked Abbott in. As always it’s the assessment of risk. In 2010 a flake like Abbott could get desperately close because the ALP made themselves look risky and their new leader stumbled rather than grasping the advantages of office. This year the risk equation is very different. Gillard has been tempered by fire. She is cold hard steel now. With low inflation, low unemployment, and low interest rates, as well as a record to run on she is the low risk default position. The extra years in the position don’t help Abbott at all however. Familiarity trully does seem to be breeding contempt, and the oh-so-obvious stunts he uses to try and solve his problems are obeing the law of diminishing returns. The question I suspect a very very large number of voters will be asking themselves in the silence of the booth is ‘can I risk Tony Abbott becoming Prime Minister’?

    All the 2PP poll wins in the world won’t save his arse if they do.

  • 112
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    kakuru, go back and read your first line of your post @ 97. It’d be better as: “What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on FEMALE leaders.”

    There’s no reason to accept his adjective.

  • 113
    pedant
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    leone @ 106: well, actually, by that logic we don’t elect governments either, we elect individual representatives. But it’s a pretty odd logic, akin to saying that in the US they don’t elect the President, just the members of the Electoral College (which is technically correct, but ignores the political reality).

  • 114
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Is anyone else scared by the fact that 44% of the surveyed people preferred FPTP to anything?

    How is it possible for anyone who has thought about it for a split second to prefer FPTP? Or have I answered my own question there?

  • 115
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Foreign Minister @BobJCarr will join us on #AfternoonLive to discuss the situation in #Syria and #Mali. 5.15pm AEDT #auspol”

  • 116
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    CTar1@104


    LBB – Disinfectant highly recommended.

    Please do J M as well.

    She/he (JM )has too much filth from constant contact with the Daily terror/ Alan Jones/ Bolty shows .Would need a acid dip to clean that.

  • 117
    Lynchpin
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    ratsak, 111 – great post.

  • 118
    Son of foro
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Pity, because I found the guy last week (Ben Knights?) tolerable – spoke like a normal human being and actually seemed interested in the people he was talking to or talking about, unlike anyone else at the ABC.

    Ben Knights did a great job. He used the revolutionary approach of asking someone a question and then listening to their answer.

    It’s obviously a technique that’s missing from the ABC ‘How to Be a STAR!!!!!’ (Uhlmann, Lewis et al) training manual.

  • 119
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.

    What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on failed FEMALE leaders.

    What have you rabid Tories got against women? It’s getting kinda creepy. I can see why you’re a huge fan of Abbott’s.

    Maybe the troll has not heard. TA is going to have a sex change and will become the first transgendered LOTO in recorded history. This comes following his Epiphany, and because he has decided he can be anything he wants to be.

  • 120
    pedant
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Jackol @ 114: Just under 68% of those who voted in the UK referendum in 2011 preferred FPTP. There are some arguments in its favour, though I don’t necessarily agree with them. For example, it can be argued that preferential voting empowers minor parties, which some would see as undesirable.

  • 121
    Geoff
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    So many labor trolls on this site.
    And in typical labor style if someone comes in with a different view they troll them by all things calling them a troll.

    please please someone say that this current Government is doing a good job. The replies on this are so funny I need to top it off with a punchline!

  • 122
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    LBB – I hope Zena came equipped with a broken down lawn mower?

    J M – If you’re a genuine poster of any type: very welcome. But you seemed to have arrived in some suspicious company.

  • 123
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    pedant @ 113
    In any case, JG got in on her own merit last election. We had a hung parliament and unlike TA she was able to convince 3rd parties to support her.

  • 124
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    By far the worst pm was howard. Lazy populist do nothing tory ideologue with almost zero achievements. No wonder he lost his seat.

  • 125
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Good comment ratsak

  • 126
    Sohar
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    Yes, Howard is by far the worst PM in my lifetime. Can’t think of anyone who comes close to him in that area.

  • 127
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Mari

  • 128
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    William , how can I load a photo onto a comment ? Have tried the cut and paste , but no paste ?

  • 129
    victoria
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Fabulous post ratsak

  • 130
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    LBB – Crikey doesn’t allow that. (Not a William thing).

    PB Xmas Tragics does if you want to try there.

  • 131
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    confessions@124


    By far the worst pm was howard. Lazy populist do nothing tory ideologue with almost zero achievements. No wonder he lost his seat.

    And just to rub it in , lost it too a woman ! and wrecked his Liberal party .
    CTar1 ,sorry no mower , they are $25.00

  • 132
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    CTar1@130


    LBB – Crikey doesn’t allow that. (Not a William thing).

    PB Xmas Tragics does if you want to try there.

    Thanks , I thought i was doing something wrong !

  • 133
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Geoff @ 121

    Labor is in command

    They are the only party willing to work wiht the rest of the parliament , to govern for Australia

    Where the coalition particular abbott only wants to govern for abbott , and stuff the people of Australia

  • 134
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    ratsak – Nice.

    The effect of the policy straight jacket he has condemned the Coalition to wear is still to come.

    And the fire jacket! :lol:

  • 135
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    CTar1 – thanks for the welcome, but as Geoff said, it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.

  • 136
    Geoff
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    Now that is faith ratsack. A Labor campaign that has a focus’ on Tony Abbot will fail.
    Problem with Labor is at the moment is that is the only thing they can run a campaign on.
    Julia Gillard’s Goose is cooked and can only pray for Liberal party balls up. Best she can do now is sand bag. All marginal seat will be gone, best focus on keeping seats.
    It is a sad state of affairs I know but the Labor party is just a shadow of what it use to be. Time to rebuild.

  • 137
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    CTar1 – thanks for the welcome, but as Geoff said, it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.

    54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

    The guy can’t even remember what he posted a page back.

  • 138
    BH
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    Pity, because I found the guy last week (Ben Knights?) tolerable – spoke like a normal human being and actually seemed interested in the people he was talking to or talking about, unlike anyone else at the ABC.

    I also found Ben Knights watchable. Not necessarily better than Leigh Sales but 200% better than Uhlmann who is a right turnoff.

    It’s a bit like RNBreakfast when Fran Kelly is away. The replacement, whoever it is, always asks questions listens and then discusses with no aggression. Much better value for the listener or telly watcher.

  • 139
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    DisplayName – sorry? Besides, I am female. J is for Jenny.

  • 140
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    @stevesilberman: Researchers liberate hundreds of PDFs to Twitter to honor @aaronsw’s memory. http://t.co/WBbg7yQQ

  • 141
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    53

    Gough Whitlam was much better than Churchill. He is not more racist than most other politicians were like Churchill was.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/not-his-finest-hour-the-dark-side-of-winston-churchill-2118317.html?origin=internalSearch

  • 142
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    J M

    After publication of polls, we often get some deliberately foolish rants so we get a bit suspicious. But logical arguments from right-wingers are tolerated well, and even welcomed :) .

    It’s not quite 99%. It’s just that the strongest Labor supporters are more vocal here.

  • 143
    Geoff
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    @Meguire Bob
    If Labor is in command then why does everything get blamed on Tony Abbott?
    If only 10% of the effort of blaming Tony Abbott was put into analysing policy then we might have decent robust working policies.

  • 144
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    @davemcclure: Anonymous Appears To Have Hacked MIT Website, Leaves Swartz Tribute http://t.co/Gh2JHwVz via @TechCrunch

  • 145
    J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    Chris Uhlmann, unlike most other ABC presenters (like Cassidy), isn’t sickeningly Labor biased. Knights has been good too, but I cannot stand Sales.

  • 146
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    To be fair, the way Coalition hacks read on here, is exactly the way the Labor hacks do. (i.e. premature gloating, non-constructive criticism and demonisation of the other side etc) so it’s a bit hypocritical to throw accusations of being a blind party stooge.

  • 147
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    J M @ 139

    DisplayName – sorry? Besides, I am female. J is for Jenny.

    J M @ 135

    CTar1 – thanks for the welcome, but as Geoff said, it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.

    J M @ 54

    54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

    My italics.

  • 148
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    J M

    Hi, Jenny.

    Sohar

    Leigh Sales said she has some sort of wog and regrets she won’t be on 7.30 tonight.

  • 149
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    Geoff

    The other way around news ltd, abbott /coalition blame labor

    For not letting abbott get into the lodge at christmas 2011

  • 150
    dave
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    Sohar@126


    Yes, Howard is by far the worst PM in my lifetime. Can’t think of anyone who comes close to him in that area.

    howard was also the worst Treasurer since WW2 -

    The Trilogy of misery -

    Unemployment over 10%
    Inflation over 10%
    Interest rates over 10%

    ALL at the sametime.

    Then as PM he wasted the windfall income of Mining Boom Mk1.

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