tip off

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

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  • 1
    muttleymcgee
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Softly softly catchee Monkey …..

  • 2
    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    Monkey is cactus if this continues.
    Malcolm surely circling…
    Come in mod lib… :)

  • 3
    womble
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    Abbott must be VERY nervous – Hockey has to be favourite to replace him surely???

    Either way, sets a nice context for the year to come :)

  • 4
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    am i first

  • 5
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Some at AAP (or Fairfax) hit the “go live” button too early. Should have been after midnight I reckon. The Oz will be pissed off…

    http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-winning-back-lost-ground-newspoll-20130114-2cq2p.html

  • 6
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    dratttt !!! missed by three posts

  • 7
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    jeffemu – no, you’re not :)

  • 8
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    From the previous thread.

    These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?

    I do. What is the tipping point away from principle to dogma? It’s not just identity or self awareness.

    What motivates a traditional, small government Liberal to get behind a big government DLP type in Abbott? Or even a high taxing, high spending alleged Liberal in Howard?

    The mind boggles.

  • 9
    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Shannas in fetal position in corner, sucking thumb.

  • 10
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    29% approval for Abbott…He has become an amazing self propelling vote eating machine.

    I think the word is fizzogghh!

  • 11
    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Christine Milne not looking to flash either mind you.

  • 12
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Henry:

    Sorry, misunderstood you there re GST.

  • 13
    womble
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    my question from the last thread for the legal types – is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court???

  • 14
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Vince O'Grady ‏@vogrady2132
    @geeksrulz @GhostWhoVotes Gary Morgan has Labor in front in his face to face poll. Whoohoo
    Hide conversation Reply Retweet Favorite

    Come on down Liberal trolls!

  • 15
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Someone better tell Rupe that the Poll is wrong and so is the lengthy trend back.

    Psssssts. I would love to see Tone the Truckwit still as LOTO till the election, but gee it will be fun watching him getting his “don’t come Monday”. I am worried if Talcolm gets the nod. Anyone else I would not have a worry.

  • 16
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    So, first Newspoll for the year delivers us the 2010 PV results for Labor/coalition.

    I still say it’s too early to get excited. People are still on holidays, there’s no election imminent, no parliament sitting to jolt people back to thinking about our MPs in their normal place.

    Meh.

  • 17
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Took me by surprise, really didn’t think they would do a Newspoll so early in the month. Glad they did!

  • 18
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    29% approval for Abbott…He has become an amazing self propelling vote eating machine.

    The Incredible Shrinking Man?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Incredible_Shrinking_Man

  • 19
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    SMH says only “marginal” changes in leader’s ratings.

    If I was PMJG I’d be happy with the preferred PM gap going from 10 to 12. Ditto for the improvement in net satisfaction/dissatisfaction of 5 points (compared to Abbott’s net improvement of 2 points),

    Momentum is the name of the game.

    As they say in the stock exchange, JG has built a solid floor in personal and party polling to go on with it in 2013 and put the cold steel up Abbott and his mob of Howard-hacks.

  • 20
    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Don’t be a party pooper confessions; this is a great result for the good guys.
    The trend and the momentum is good but yes a long way to go.

    Two hawt eastern europeans on court now just quietly…

  • 21
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Only three weeks tomorrow until Parliament sits. If this trend solidifies it will be a very interesting week.

  • 22
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    I await to be proved wrong, but it seems to me this leaked Morgan result talk emerged from Chinese whispers on Twitter.

  • 23
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    wow great numbers … and quite a divergence on todays number.

    Also worrying for the liebots because Abbott usually does well over Christmas when he isn’t on screens annoying each nights.

  • 24
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Jeffemu @ 15

    “Psssssts. I would love to see Tone the Truckwit still as LOTO till the election, but gee it will be fun watching him getting his “don’t come Monday”. I am worried if Talcolm gets the nod. Anyone else I would not have a worry.”

    My sentiments precisely.

    I want to get popcorn ready now but I know it’d be better if I wait till the main poll.

  • 25
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    I await to be proved wrong, but it seems to me this leaked Morgan result talk emerged from Chinese whispers on Twitter.

    Twitter doesn’t ever get things wrong surely?

  • 26
    victoria
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Interesting as in a likely libspill?

  • 27
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    good start to the year!

  • 28
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    confessions…..i think it is normative affiliation and conduct. You can get people to do or express all kinds of unlikely things because group attachment is very very important to psychological continuity and a sense of order.

    People really really need to experience trust in their lives. If this is withheld, people feel dislocated and threatened. They say that happiness is not possible without trust. Trust of course is something that exists because of social engagement – it is a social product. For many, political attachment is a part of their array of social engagement. So they are more likely to change their minds about “policies” or “abstract directions” than to renounce their deeply-held affiliations. This is involuntary. People will find it easier to rationalise their acceptance of changes to “policies” than changes in primary political attachment.

    The task for parties is to find those voters who are not firmly affiliated and find ways to cultivate attention and attachment. This is hard, because such voters are “non-affiliating” in a political sense in the first place. It is about creating motivation in the resistant….tough job

  • 29
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Just… interesting.

  • 30
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    She actually got three? Whoever was in charge of that poll is in deeper trouble than Abbott.

  • 31
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    just for William :)

    Justin Barbour ‏@justinbarbour
    Rumoured to be 52.5-48.5, to the ALP. MT @roymorganonline: our next federal poll will be out tomorrow. Stay tuned.
    Retweeted by Ashley Leahy
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

  • 32
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Briefly

    “The task for parties is to find those voters who are not firmly affiliated and find ways to cultivate attention and attachment. This is hard, because such voters are “non-affiliating” in a political sense in the first place. It is about creating motivation in the resistant….tough job”

    That’s why superficial, catchy political advertising exists.

  • 33
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    British Parliament Hansard is now available online, all the way back to 1803. Churchill, Lloyd George, Gladstone, Disraeli, Pitt the Younger… I may never go outdoors again.
    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/

  • 34
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Take a punt Psephos…..are we seeing terminal Abbott?

  • 35
    ratsak
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    AWU Bullshit washes out and it’s back to near evens that the trend was heading for in October.

    It’ll be fun watching and waiting to see how long it is until the Lib shills wake up to the fact it isn’t just going to be handed to them and that they won’t even be in the race come election day without a barely credible policy suite and an electable leader. Unhingement deluxe.

  • 36
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    http://bit.ly/WFFFLa (click top google link)

    Labor starts year with a bounce in latest Newspoll
    BY: DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
    From: The Australian
    January 14, 2013 10:34PM

    VOTER support for Labor has jumped to its strongest levels since the last election to put the federal government within striking distance of the Coalition after a dangerous setback last month.

    Labor enters the election year with a big recovery in its primary vote despite only marginal changes in personal satisfaction ratings for Julia Gillard, as the Prime Minister declares her readiness for a drawn-out political fight.

    Shanna must be on leave

  • 37
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw……and its why TA thinks it is smart to play dress-ups….only he played that lark a few times too often

  • 38
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Monkey is cactus if this continues.
    Malcolm surely circling…
    Come in mod lib

    Nice to see you guys miss me!

    Yep, good poll to start the year, and again Essential and Newspoll differ and so – wait for it – we need to see some more polling to work out which is the more accurate.

    I just hope the Lib backbenchers are starting to get butterflies and look furtively Mts way :)

  • 39
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    These women have failed to boost Tony Abbott’s popularity: Bishop, Prissy, Margie and Credlin. Sister Bernadette & Mother Mary are next

  • 40
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    For the legal types out there is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court??? Looks to me like that is what they are asking for

    Full Bench means three judges which us the same as what State courts call an appeal bench

  • 41
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Hats off, Jeffemu.

  • 42
    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    We don’t miss you ML. Just like seeing you cop a nice dose of humble pie. Enjoy it. So now Essential is THE poll for the conservatives. Lolski.

  • 43
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Henry:

    If the polls are consistently showing this result in 6 months time I’ll be impressed.

  • 44
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Joe Hockey’s reaction when told of the latest Newspoll – http://images.smh.com.au/2012/09/11/3626346/abbott-20120911162951357348-620×349.jpg

  • 45
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Speak for yourself, Henry.

  • 46
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    The Finnigans, these women, they are candles in the chapel, little lights by the altar, flickering for TA; tapers slowly melting away as surely as his political substance dissolves.

  • 47
    Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    I was speaking for my peeps william.

  • 48
    victoria
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Henry

    Touche’. :)

  • 49
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    no wonder Credlin wants a tweeting ban on Liberal MPs and candidates. Mr Laming has put this choice one out just now

    Andrew Laming ‏@AndrewLamingMP
    Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day's work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?
    Details

  • 50
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    41

    William Bowe

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Hats off, Jeffemu.

    Yeah, but everyone knows the DT is campaigning and that letters could easily have been faked…..it is a Murdoch Special….no one believes anything much in the News organs

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