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Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

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The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3565 comments

3,565 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

  1. muttleymcgee

    Softly softly catchee Monkey …..

  2. Henry

    Monkey is cactus if this continues.
    Malcolm surely circling…
    Come in mod lib… 🙂

  3. womble

    Abbott must be VERY nervous – Hockey has to be favourite to replace him surely???

    Either way, sets a nice context for the year to come 🙂

  4. Leroy

    Some at AAP (or Fairfax) hit the “go live” button too early. Should have been after midnight I reckon. The Oz will be pissed off…

    http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-winning-back-lost-ground-newspoll-20130114-2cq2p.html

  5. jeffemu

    dratttt !!! missed by three posts

  6. Leroy

    jeffemu – no, you’re not 🙂

  7. confessions

    briefly:

    From the previous thread.

    [These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?]

    I do. What is the tipping point away from principle to dogma? It’s not just identity or self awareness.

    What motivates a traditional, small government Liberal to get behind a big government DLP type in Abbott? Or even a high taxing, high spending alleged Liberal in Howard?

    The mind boggles.

  8. Henry

    Shannas in fetal position in corner, sucking thumb.

  9. briefly

    29% approval for Abbott…He has become an amazing self propelling vote eating machine.

    I think the word is fizzogghh!

  10. Henry

    Christine Milne not looking to flash either mind you.

  11. confessions

    Henry:

    Sorry, misunderstood you there re GST.

  12. womble

    my question from the last thread for the legal types – is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court???

  13. sprocket_

    [Vince O’Grady ‏@vogrady2132
    @geeksrulz @GhostWhoVotes Gary Morgan has Labor in front in his face to face poll. Whoohoo
    Hide conversation Reply Retweet Favorite]

    Come on down Liberal trolls!

  14. jeffemu

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Someone better tell Rupe that the Poll is wrong and so is the lengthy trend back.

    Psssssts. I would love to see Tone the Truckwit still as LOTO till the election, but gee it will be fun watching him getting his “don’t come Monday”. I am worried if Talcolm gets the nod. Anyone else I would not have a worry.

  15. confessions

    So, first Newspoll for the year delivers us the 2010 PV results for Labor/coalition.

    I still say it’s too early to get excited. People are still on holidays, there’s no election imminent, no parliament sitting to jolt people back to thinking about our MPs in their normal place.

    Meh.

  16. Leroy

    Took me by surprise, really didn’t think they would do a Newspoll so early in the month. Glad they did!

  17. confessions

    briefly:

    [29% approval for Abbott…He has become an amazing self propelling vote eating machine. ]

    The Incredible Shrinking Man?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Incredible_Shrinking_Man

  18. psyclaw

    SMH says only “marginal” changes in leader’s ratings.

    If I was PMJG I’d be happy with the preferred PM gap going from 10 to 12. Ditto for the improvement in net satisfaction/dissatisfaction of 5 points (compared to Abbott’s net improvement of 2 points),

    Momentum is the name of the game.

    As they say in the stock exchange, JG has built a solid floor in personal and party polling to go on with it in 2013 and put the cold steel up Abbott and his mob of Howard-hacks.

  19. Henry

    Don’t be a party pooper confessions; this is a great result for the good guys.
    The trend and the momentum is good but yes a long way to go.

    Two hawt eastern europeans on court now just quietly…

  20. Psephos

    Only three weeks tomorrow until Parliament sits. If this trend solidifies it will be a very interesting week.

  21. William Bowe

    I await to be proved wrong, but it seems to me this leaked Morgan result talk emerged from Chinese whispers on Twitter.

  22. WeWantPaul

    wow great numbers … and quite a divergence on todays number.

    Also worrying for the liebots because Abbott usually does well over Christmas when he isn’t on screens annoying each nights.

  23. psyclaw

    Jeffemu @ 15

    “Psssssts. I would love to see Tone the Truckwit still as LOTO till the election, but gee it will be fun watching him getting his “don’t come Monday”. I am worried if Talcolm gets the nod. Anyone else I would not have a worry.”

    My sentiments precisely.

    I want to get popcorn ready now but I know it’d be better if I wait till the main poll.

  24. WeWantPaul

    [I await to be proved wrong, but it seems to me this leaked Morgan result talk emerged from Chinese whispers on Twitter.]

    Twitter doesn’t ever get things wrong surely?

  25. victoria

    Psephos

    Interesting as in a likely libspill?

  26. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    good start to the year!

  27. briefly

    confessions…..i think it is normative affiliation and conduct. You can get people to do or express all kinds of unlikely things because group attachment is very very important to psychological continuity and a sense of order.

    People really really need to experience trust in their lives. If this is withheld, people feel dislocated and threatened. They say that happiness is not possible without trust. Trust of course is something that exists because of social engagement – it is a social product. For many, political attachment is a part of their array of social engagement. So they are more likely to change their minds about “policies” or “abstract directions” than to renounce their deeply-held affiliations. This is involuntary. People will find it easier to rationalise their acceptance of changes to “policies” than changes in primary political attachment.

    The task for parties is to find those voters who are not firmly affiliated and find ways to cultivate attention and attachment. This is hard, because such voters are “non-affiliating” in a political sense in the first place. It is about creating motivation in the resistant….tough job

  28. Gorgeous Dunny

    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    She actually got three? Whoever was in charge of that poll is in deeper trouble than Abbott.

  29. sprocket_

    just for William 🙂

    [Justin Barbour ‏@justinbarbour
    Rumoured to be 52.5-48.5, to the ALP. MT @roymorganonline: our next federal poll will be out tomorrow. Stay tuned.
    Retweeted by Ashley Leahy
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite]

  30. psyclaw

    Briefly

    “The task for parties is to find those voters who are not firmly affiliated and find ways to cultivate attention and attachment. This is hard, because such voters are “non-affiliating” in a political sense in the first place. It is about creating motivation in the resistant….tough job”

    That’s why superficial, catchy political advertising exists.

  31. Psephos

    British Parliament Hansard is now available online, all the way back to 1803. Churchill, Lloyd George, Gladstone, Disraeli, Pitt the Younger… I may never go outdoors again.
    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/

  32. briefly

    Take a punt Psephos…..are we seeing terminal Abbott?

  33. ratsak

    AWU Bullshit washes out and it’s back to near evens that the trend was heading for in October.

    It’ll be fun watching and waiting to see how long it is until the Lib shills wake up to the fact it isn’t just going to be handed to them and that they won’t even be in the race come election day without a barely credible policy suite and an electable leader. Unhingement deluxe.

  34. Leroy

    http://bit.ly/WFFFLa (click top google link)
    [Labor starts year with a bounce in latest Newspoll
    BY: DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
    From: The Australian
    January 14, 2013 10:34PM

    VOTER support for Labor has jumped to its strongest levels since the last election to put the federal government within striking distance of the Coalition after a dangerous setback last month.

    Labor enters the election year with a big recovery in its primary vote despite only marginal changes in personal satisfaction ratings for Julia Gillard, as the Prime Minister declares her readiness for a drawn-out political fight.]
    Shanna must be on leave

  35. briefly

    psyclaw……and its why TA thinks it is smart to play dress-ups….only he played that lark a few times too often

  36. Mod Lib

    [Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Monkey is cactus if this continues.
    Malcolm surely circling…
    Come in mod lib]

    Nice to see you guys miss me!

    Yep, good poll to start the year, and again Essential and Newspoll differ and so – wait for it – we need to see some more polling to work out which is the more accurate.

    I just hope the Lib backbenchers are starting to get butterflies and look furtively Mts way 🙂

  37. The Finnigans

    These women have failed to boost Tony Abbott’s popularity: Bishop, Prissy, Margie and Credlin. Sister Bernadette & Mother Mary are next

  38. shellbell

    [For the legal types out there is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court??? Looks to me like that is what they are asking for]

    Full Bench means three judges which us the same as what State courts call an appeal bench

  39. William Bowe

    [But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.]

    Hats off, Jeffemu.

  40. Henry

    We don’t miss you ML. Just like seeing you cop a nice dose of humble pie. Enjoy it. So now Essential is THE poll for the conservatives. Lolski.

  41. confessions

    Henry:

    If the polls are consistently showing this result in 6 months time I’ll be impressed.

  42. briefly

    The Finnigans, these women, they are candles in the chapel, little lights by the altar, flickering for TA; tapers slowly melting away as surely as his political substance dissolves.

  43. Henry

    I was speaking for my peeps william.

  44. victoria

    Henry

    Touche’. 🙂

  45. sprocket_

    no wonder Credlin wants a tweeting ban on Liberal MPs and candidates. Mr Laming has put this choice one out just now

    [Andrew Laming ‏@AndrewLamingMP
    Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?
    Details ]

  46. briefly

    41
    [William Bowe

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Hats off, Jeffemu.]

    Yeah, but everyone knows the DT is campaigning and that letters could easily have been faked…..it is a Murdoch Special….no one believes anything much in the News organs

  47. Mod Lib

    Essential aint my poll (nor the “Conservatives” for that matter), it is actually commissioned by the union movement I think. Just saying when polls are different you look to the next one (a tried and true fallback for pseph tragics).

    As it turns out 51-49 and 54-46 are both within the realm of where I think we currently are in terms of political support (53-47- which I have said pretty consistently for a very long time….months at least).

    53-47 is where the averages where at the end of the year and I would assume that when the suite of polls come out that is where the average will be again. A forewarning (I don’t include Morgan F2F in that unless you adjust for the bias).

  48. womble

    thanks Shellbell

    William – it’s sounding more and more like a Labor leading Morgan tomorrow. I hope you’re ready to crank up Bludgertrack 🙂

  49. Phil Vee

    from the Oz quoted by Leroy @ 36 as the Prime Minister declares her readiness for a drawn-out political fight.

    Technically wrong. She said she was ready for a big year and ready to do big things. The DT and Herald Sun used the “fight, war, roar” lingo not the PM.

  50. Gorgeous Dunny

    Look forward to Bushfire tomorrow. He and Ratsak have called it perfectly for some time, as far as the longer-term trend goes. Labor is circling the wagons.

    Be interesting to get an expert view of the trend – Possum, Kevin, William. There’s still a long way to go fighting against the Old Media, especially their efforts to define the agenda and continue the lies.

    Ben Eltham nails them
    http://newmatilda.com/2012/12/20/year-media-old-boys-got-it-wrong

  51. mari

    [Jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | PERMALINK
    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.]

    Despite our best efforts too 😉

  52. Mod Lib

    [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Joe Hockey’s reaction when told of the latest Newspoll ]

    I suppose one has to be happy you didn’t refer to KFC Finns :devil:

  53. ShowsOn

    tony abbott is going to get fucking pissed tonight!

  54. Fulvio Sammut

    Some people assume a lot more than the parameters of their comprehension permits, Mod Lib

  55. jeffemu

    Mari @ #55

    That was the funny part. It was like us kids daring to see who could get one posted. Everytime “we” had a posting you could hear the mass laughter.

    Even when the naughty ones were instantly posted.

    Just like the Stuntman it is becoming a joke and the more it is exposed the better it gets.

  56. ShowsOn

    It’s going to be as if there is a big economic stimulus bill in parliament!

    Abbott will just down a half a dozen reds and fall asleep on a couch.

  57. womble

    night all – a nice poll to start the year, ignoring Essential

  58. mari

    [jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 11:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari @ #55

    That was the funny part. It was like us kids daring to see who could get one posted. Everytime “we” had a posting you could hear the mass laughter.

    Even when the naughty ones were instantly posted.

    Just like the Stuntman it is becoming a joke and the more it is exposed the better it get]

    It was hilarious but I wasn’t too happy at the time with The Terror, are you on Twitter I had a wonderful time on Twitter and so many joined in the fun , just like here on PB. Hopefully it will start showing people how “balanced” DT is. :devil:

  59. leone

    The Tony images keep on coming –

    Tony after hearing tonight’s Newspoll results
    http://stopthestunts.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/edward_hopper-nighthawks-19421.jpg

    And a bizarre contribution, perhaps Tony’s new job –
    https://twitter.com/leftocentre/status/290792227809144832/photo/1

  60. jeffemu

    No I am not on twitter. Probably will soon, but the distractions are mounting up and I am easily distracted when it comes to fighting Tories and ‘me’ footy

  61. Henry

    52-48 is about right I would say – that’s where the big two Nielsen and Newspoll have them. Maybe even 51-49.
    Point is that’s easily within reach in an election year with a very poor opposition.
    Labor’s to lose now.

  62. mari

    [jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 11:12 pm | PERMALINK
    No I am not on twitter. Probably will soon, but the distractions are mounting up and I am easily distracted when it comes to fighting Tories and ‘me’ footy]

    Go on it is fun and probably one of the best and most effective ways of fighting the Tories at the moment. Let me know when you do and I will follow you
    Forget footy for this year 😉

  63. victoria

    On twitter

    You’ll know the #libspill is on when the Oz starts editorialising how they knew Abbott was no good all along. #auspol

  64. Psephos

    Can someone remind us when was the last Newspoll in which Labor was in front?

  65. Augustus

    Thanks Leone,

    edward hopper now my wallpaper

  66. Mod Lib

    This is the first Newspoll since May 2011 which did not have a majority of respondents disapproving of Gillard.

    (I think that mid 2011 to now historical result also applies to the Essential but don’t have all of those polls at hand to be able to check).

  67. Mod Lib

    [Psephos
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Can someone remind us when was the last Newspoll in which Labor was in front?]

    Certainly before April 2011. I think from memory it was Nov(ish) 2010….

  68. briefly

    The gain has come from all quarters – the G’s, “Other” and the LNP. This is a spectacular result.

  69. Mod Lib

    Actually, there was a 51-49 to ALP in March 2011, and the one before that was indeed Nov 2010 (52-48)

  70. confessions

    How will this Newspoll get reported in OM?

  71. jeffemu

    Mari – tiz the year of the Shark… plus I run a pretty big League website that keeps me busy too

    Ive been waiting 45 years for my team to win… and this year is shaping up as a good chance.

    I will enjoy both loves… fighting tories and cheering sharks

  72. briefly

    As soon as it becomes “respectable” to evince open support for Labor – respectable in the sense that “everyone else” is doing it – Labor will run out to around 54 or 55 on the 2PPV, maybe more, unless the LNP first remove Abbott. He is now driving voters to Labor. He is completely finished.

  73. victoria

    briefly

    Agree that Abbott is driving voters to Labor.

  74. ratsak

    Dunny,

    Don’t know I’d use the term circling the wagons.

    I earlier today used the term ‘occupying the high ground’. No question Labor took a lot a heavy casualties over the past two years, but they don’t seem to have lost sight of the objective (Ruddstorationist Runos aside). They didn’t panic and stuck to governing well. They took the casualties to ensure they held overwhemingly strong positions on their preferred battle grounds, from which they could strike out when the time was ripe. The plan has always been get the fundamentals right, and the election campaign will largely take care of itself.

    Now they have a mighty legislative record behind them. NBN, Aged Care, Maternity Leave etc are all positives. Come the election MRRT and Carbon pricing will be net winners, and Gonski and NDIS give Labor the big ticket forward looking reforms to bed down next term. Add to that winning Sawford Formula of lower interest rates, inflation and unemployment and Labor’s position is extremely strong to fight an election.

    Labor won’t be sand bagging too many seats (as a circling the wagons metaphor might indicate). They’ll be attacking the Coalition’s marginals (and winning them)

    (This piece is from after the 04 election, but I’m pretty sure the Sawford Formula held up pretty well for 07 and 10. It will get Labor up this year too, but 16 will be very tough because inflation and interest rates will almost certainly rise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/Opinion/A-turnaround-is-in-the-stars-for-Labor/2005/02/07/1107625131321.html )

  75. mari

    [jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari – tiz the year of the Shark… plus I run a pretty big League website that keeps me busy too

    Ive been waiting 45 years for my team to win… and this year is shaping up as a good chance.]

    I will enjoy both loves… fighting tories and cheering sharks]

    My daughter and family live at Cronulla but SIL is a rabid Souths supporter . Please don’t hold that against me, I can’t control who my children marry 😉

  76. Henry

    Yes Abbott is in truly dire straits but as PvO so kindly pointed out on the weekend, they won’t ditch him. He has been the best opposition leader ever and it is too close to an election. Liberals don’t do that sort of thing anyway you see.
    I have said all along if they do ditch Abbott (and I don’t think they will, it’s too late now) it would be for Hockey. Turnbull is just too hopelessly compromised by his previous positions.

  77. ShowsOn

    MOFOS!

    This is my favourite Blackalicious song:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pet7drFH9Fk

  78. jeffemu

    http://www.eraofthebiff.com … tell your daughter.

    Some great old Souths stuff in it … today I have been online chatting with Troy Grant… Bobby Grants son. Bob was Souths halfback when they ruled the late 60s early 70s

  79. Tom the first and best

    368 on the previous thread

    There is also the consideration of whether to vote for a candidate who will get a primary vote above or bellow the 4% threshold for per vote funding.

  80. Psephos

    [Actually, there was a 51-49 to ALP in March 2011]

    Which was when the Gillard Government announced the carbon price legislation. Ministers foolishly conceded that this was a “carbon tax” (which it isn’t), thus allowing the Opposition and the Murdoch press to accuse Gillard of having lied when she said “no carbon tax” before the election. This gross political error caused a slump in Labor support which lasted until the carbon price actually came into effect, whereupon the Opposition-Murdoch scare compaign evaporated and Labor’s fortunes began to recover.

    We will recall that when Gillard became PM she said there were three things she had to fix: the mining tax, the carbon price, and boat arrivals. The first two have now been effectively fixed, and are no longer political liabilities. The third has not been fixed and Labor is still bleeding because it has not been. This should now be Gillard’s priority.

  81. Fulvio Sammut

    First seious poll under 50% to Coalition and the spill will be on.

    I’d say in about four weeks.

  82. jeffemu

    Mari check out the pic on the homepage of the three legends – you need to scroll down the page.

    Go the mullett

  83. guytaur

    I take a break and look what happens.

    I think the Greens will be happy to take a drop in support to keep Labor in and the recognition of the reality of climate change rather than a change to the LNP and denial of that reality.

    That said they will of course fight hard for every vote.
    The Greens are not dying anytime soon and are with us for a few decades at least.

    The parties that are likely to die before the Greens are the National and Liberal parties. Unless the moderates rescue the Liberals.

  84. Kevin Bonham

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-14/community-action-proved-key-in-bushfire-response/4464464

    Tas government being attacked for inactive response to bushfire by woman who set up successful and hugely popular Facebook response site.

  85. guytaur

    MSM Spin is voters moving to the major parties so is Minor parties loss.
    Only two point loss to LNP.

    The way they report you would think these polls were holy writ with no margin of error.

  86. BH

    What a surprise poll. Just got home and thoughr I’d check to see the Morgan but found a better one. Good start to the year Bludgers.

    Labor’s nervous nellie pollies must be working harder out there.

  87. Tom the first and best

    85

    I do not think there would have any significant lessening of conservative anger if the Government had said “this is not a tax” and they would have just accused Gillard of lying about whether she would bring in a carbon tax both before and after the election. It may well however have gone down better with swinging voters.

    They way to stop the boats is to abolish the law requiring airlines to refuse access flights to Australia to people without a visa (and spread the word in Malaysia and Indonesia). Then the cheaper and safer flights can render the boats useless. Problem solved.

  88. briefly

    [79
    victoria

    briefly

    Agree that Abbott is driving voters to Labor.]

    And the Government is showing every day that it is a good, capable, sturdy, reliable, clear-thinking and self-assured, intelligent and articulate force….expressing the kind of values/qualities that comprise leadership…unbeatable in this context

  89. Von Kirsdarke

    I’m about halfway through the NSW 1995 election on wikipedia and I’m all excited about the project at the moment.

    I’ve been given a challenge to start working on historical Tasmanian elections now. Since the Tasmanian electoral commission has worked much harder than the other states to keep its results available, I think I’ll take it up. At least it’ll be easier than slogging through NSW’s 99 districts of the 90’s.

  90. mexicanbeemer

    May I be cheeky and suggest the bounce can be put down to Swannie owning up about not having a surplus this year.

  91. Psephos

    They should have said it was an emissions trading scheme with a two-year fixed-price lead-in period, and they should have stick to that line and not deviated from it. Yes the Opposition would still have said Gillard was a liar but they would have got much less traction.

    They only solution to unauthorised arrivals that will help Labor win the election is for unauthorised arrivals to stop. The only way to stop them is to make it clear that coming to Australia without authorisation is not a pathway to an Australian visa.

  92. ratsak

    psephos,

    I broadly agree with all of that, apart from perhaps the importance of boats to the final result. Where the economy was less healthy and the opponent more electable boats could be decisive, but realy I think it’s more of a winner for the Libs in government than opposition.

    Not disputing it hurts the ALP, especially (and perhaps surprisingly to some) amongst immigrant communities in Western Sydney. Just it won’t be enough to get enough people to overlook Abbott’s shortcomings, and Bowen has done enough to take most of the sting out of it.

    Julia won’t be bringing it up because that’s one of the few fronts Abbott will want to fight on. If (when) Abbott goes there the government will stick tightly to the Houton panel recommendations.

  93. BH

    Mari I’m off tobed now but we’ll have to fire up Tories tomorrow fir Emmo. Night all

  94. guytaur

    “@CraigEmersonMP: Disgraceful comments by@andrewlamingmp on Logan City, slurring a proud community. We don’t need Laming or anyone else pontificating #auspol”

  95. ShowsOn

    [They should have said it was an emissions trading scheme with a two-year fixed-price lead-in period,]
    Three year.

  96. briefly

    There is one more thing that registers with voters….and even with very conservative ones…..and that is that JG is a proven fighter. She has shown more than once that she will stand up for herself.

    Voters know that the PM has to be a fighter, and even if they might not always agree with the PM, they really must know that the PM is willing and able to fight, because one day the PM may have to fight for the country.

    JG is not by any measure a conventional politician. But she is a proven fighter. People will rally to this quality. She is no quitter. She has endurance, deep personal resources, reserves of dignity and strength that have been there for all to see. She is a physical expression of power and determination.

    Abbott on the other had has come to signify the total absence of these irreplaceable virtues. He is just a shell..or maybe is just a hermit crab who has moved into borrowed housing. He is a political squatter.

  97. Silky38

    I don’t believe the Coalition will dump Tony Abbott. I don’t believe Labor is in any sort of winning position at this stage. They have to many big interest groups lined up against them at the moment. I don’t think this is the time for counting chickens.

  98. Apple Blossom

    Oh wow, that’s really close!

    Hope everyone in WA is as excited as I am for Metronet… It’ll be so good for us. Fingers crossed Mark McGowan will win.

  99. WeWantPaul

    [Hope everyone in WA is as excited as I am for Metronet… It’ll be so good for us. Fingers crossed Mark McGowan will win.]

    It would be fantastic, but seems very unlikely.

  100. guytaur

    Silky

    No one is counting chickens, just trends.

    Thus my long term prediction. The trend is to minor parties away from majors.

    Labor suffers less in this as the right wing is splitting. Appointing Abbott just slowed the process. The progressive split already happened. Those Green voters are more likely to vote Labor than conservative

  101. Kevin Bonham

    I give Labor no realistic chance in WA.

  102. Apple Blossom

    [It would be fantastic, but seems very unlikely.]

    You’re pouring cold water on my hopes 🙁

    But you never know what could happen… We’ll just have to wait and see on the 9th March. 🙂

  103. guytaur

    Kevin

    I think that is why Labor is trying to scare the voters with prospect of Premier Chair Sniffer.

  104. imacca

    Good poll. 🙂

    Interesting watching ABC 24 at the moment. Seems that legal gun numbers in Australia are back up to where they pre 96 buyback. But the types are different.

    So, maybe its more effective in terms of gun control to look at the types available, rather than absolute numbers?

    Probably falls down in the case of the US though where the absolute numbers are just fracking stupid high. 🙁

  105. confessions

    AB:

    Labor will not win the next WA election.

    Sorry.

  106. guytaur

    “@BreakfastNews: Tomorrow: FED POLS with @SenatorWong ; the latest on the NSW bushfires and Simon Bradshaw from @OxfamAustralia on climate change.”

    Interesting. ABC not using right wing to comment on poll results

  107. Kevin Bonham

    guytaur@107


    Kevin

    I think that is why Labor is trying to scare the voters with prospect of Premier Chair Sniffer.

    If they are resorting to that I may have overestimated their chances!

    McGowan seems to be doing OK as leader. It’s just that he’s on a hiding to nothing against a first-term minority government of opposite shade to a struggling federal regime and headed by a reasonably popular Premier.

  108. pedant

    Kevin Bonham @ 105: I responded in the previous thread to your response there to me. While I had been talking about the House of Representatives, your comment gives rise to what may be an interesting question: what level of the primary vote in a Senate election, less than a quota, will suffice to ensure that a candidate cannot be excluded?

  109. Benji

    Fantastic poll. I think one of the reasons for this, as discussed by others here, is QLD. I have been on the gold coast for 2 weeks on holidays, and met an old friend from the Hunter. He has been here for 10 years. He is a typical swinging voter and voted for Newman last year, and lives in the electorate of Forde.

    He is serious when he says he thinks that if there was an election now that Newman would lose. I tried to dissuade him from this position, but he would not be budged. I said they would lose many seats but enough to lose. He is really angry with Newman its hard to describe.

    I really think that the Federal ALP vote is climbing in QLD due to Newmans cuts. Only tonight the Brisbane news had more news of cuts to the health system. From my observations here over the last couple of weeks the ALP could pick up Brisbane, Forde and Longman at a minimum.

  110. Aguirre

    So, I assume the PVO tweet was the first shot over the bows for the “they’re as bad as each other” strategy? I remember back when the journalists were all yawning and Annabel Crabb couldn’t be bothered getting out of bed. With the polls narrowing further, I guess we’ll be seeing more of that.

    Prediction – Coalition will attempt to make QT a farce all year. They’ll ditch the attacks and the electricity bills and the Gillard grilling, and just make fools of themselves. And then attempt to shift the blame to the sitting Government. Look for standards of behaviour to fall further. And then we’ll get a rash of the “all politicians are as bad as each other” articles.

    I reckon it’s the only strategy they have left.

  111. Apple Blossom

    [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 12:12 am | PERMALINK
    AB:

    Labor will not win the next WA election.

    Sorry]

    Do you think the results will be close or the Libs will win by a landslide?

  112. guytaur

    Kevin

    I do agree from the little I have seen from the West.

    I do hope though that Labor does a chair sniffing advert complete with sound effects taken from cocaine sniffing movie scene.

  113. Dorrie Evans

    Much as I dislike polls and the chatter that surrounds them, this is an encouraging result for the ALP. It should give them a little morale boost. One swallow however does not a Summer make and when the mad monk says we are in for a dirty election campaign he is merely telegraphing his punches like the idiotic boxer he once was. The reporting of any good news for Gillard is always draped though in a technicolour coat of poisonous hues. The Sydney Morning Herald does its level best to make a rival’s report even more odious than the original. The first sentence is barely a dozen words old before the murderous ‘but’ chimes in and the rest of the article crackles with the sort of hissing and sneering usually associated with puppet shows. One can only hope that this level of amateur hour ‘reporting’ retreats to the sewer and the real gutter press embodied by the likes of Fran and Michelle returns to centre stage someday soon.

  114. Phil Vee

    confessions asked How will this Newspoll get reported in OM?

    here is my guess…….

    “Another opinion poll has shown Labor is still in an election losing position. They have clawed back some primary votes but remain behind. Warren Truss said today that it was only a matter of time and the nation is demanding an election now to put a stop to the rising debt and continued boat arrivals. ‘The nation cannot afford this uncertainty and instability’ he said.

  115. briefly

    Hey AB…I would like to think we can win WA too. The Libs are as ineffectual as it is possible to be….and the royalties for regions deal is a scam..of course you are right about the rail system, even if we are about 20 years too late, better than never, I think…. 🙂

  116. guytaur

    @Newsweek: “My cover story about Lance Armstrong, my affirmation of faith, was the worst piece of opinion I have ever written.” – @buzzbissinger #Lance

    Wow a journalist admits to mistake on front cover where original mistake made

  117. mari

    Jeffemu 83
    My daughter left today will send down the link to show her OH Thanks

  118. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@112


    Kevin Bonham @ 105: I responded in the previous thread to your response there to me.

    Yep, my misreading; apologies for that.

    While I had been talking about the House of Representatives, your comment gives rise to what may be an interesting question: what level of the primary vote in a Senate election, less than a quota, will suffice to ensure that a candidate cannot be excluded?

    I think it’s (v/(n+2)+1) votes, rounded down to nearest whole number, where v=number of formal votes and n=number of seats.

    For instance supposing there are six seats and 80,000 votes. A candidate polling exactly 10,000 primaries can be excluded if seven other candidates also poll exactly 10,000 primaries each, and everyone else polls nothing, since there will then be a random draw to exclude one candidate. But if a candidate has 10,001 primaries then the most candidates who can be level with or ahead of them at any stage of the count is six. That means they will never fall below seventh and hence either get elected or be left defeated but not excluded.

  119. Tom the first and best

    96

    The only way not to have unauthorised arrivals is to authorise everybody.

  120. Poliquant

    Dorrie Evans @ 117

    One swallow however does not a Summer make

    That’s a much more elegant way of saying a single poll is just one data point….

  121. guytaur

    @pinknews: Church of England to consider allowing in-church blessings for gay couples http://t.co/6axO2oyS

  122. Kevin Bonham

    For those thinking, or wanting to engage in combat with those who think, that this is some kind of outlier, look at the Newspoll trend:

    50-51-51-54-51.

    The 54 is the odd one out, not this. And it’s the 54 that prompted the PVO “no way back” article with its attendant twaddle about the impact of a single poll on “momentum” (which I disposed of at the time here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/12/the-silly-season-2-end-of-year-poll.html) . I do hope his recent “no safer bet” article declaring that Abbott will definitely be LOTO come the election even if the Coalition is losing in the polls proves equally wrong. 😉

    Once again, short-term momentum in polls doesn’t exist. The average follow-up to a move in the polls in one direction is a move in the other.

  123. Michael Boswell

    I am having trouble believing the polls lately. Swings of 6% seem surreal. Either the polls are inaccurate or the electorate has no idea who it going to vote for.

  124. David M

    Apple Blossom
    I also don’t expect the ALP to win in WA. As far as the voters are concerned, CB has been OK and we don’t like to change too much. However, I expect Troy Boy to take over mid term and then there will be a serious contest.
    Federally, I expect the ALP to win.

  125. pedant

    Kevin Bonhan @ 122: That makes sense, and it’s interesting to see arising in a natural context a formula which looks very much like a hybrid of the Imperiali and Droop quotas.

  126. Psephos

    [what level of the primary vote in a Senate election, less than a quota, will suffice to ensure that a candidate cannot be excluded?]

    You can be elected to the Senate with any number of votes, provided that at each distribution, there is someone with fewer votes than you. So if you poll two votes, you will not be eliminated if someone else has polled one vote, and if that person preferences you, so you have three votes, you will not be eliminated if someone else has 2 votes, and so on. In practice, of course that is unlikely. But Robert Wood was elected in NSW in 1987 with 48,238 votes (1.5%), Fielding was elected in Vic in 2004 with 55,551 (1.8%), and Madigan was elected in Vic in 2010 with 74,813 (2.3%).

  127. Kevin Bonham

    pedant@128


    Kevin Bonhan @ 122: That makes sense, and it’s interesting to see arising in a natural context a formula which looks very much like a hybrid of the Imperiali and Droop quotas.

    Yes it’s actually the Droop quota as it would apply if there was one extra seat, which follows because the Droop quota determines the minimum vote with which a finish in the top n places (and hence election) is assured, while this formula determines the minimum vote with which remaining in the top (n+1) places (and hence non-exclusion) is assured.

    There are some STV elections where the last candidate to miss out is excluded and their preferences distributed, but this only applies when the finishing order actually matters. (For instance in Tasmanian council elections, it sometimes happens that there is an election for, say, six four year terms plus a two year term. So the candidate who finishes 8th is excluded and thrown to determine which winning candidate is 7th and only gets the two-year term.)

  128. pedant

    Kevin Bonham @ 134: That opens up a whole new discussion about the appropriateness of using order of election to determine long and short terms, and section 282 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act. But not for tonight.

  129. Apple Blossom

    Well it’s disappointing Labor has almost no chance of winning in WA. I guess I was just holding onto some wishful thinking.

  130. Apple Blossom

    or should I say pretty much zero chance of winning…

  131. Dorrie Evans

    That anyone takes opinion polls seriously is more the marvel. It’s right up there with astrology and entrail reading in my book. A lot of highly intelligent and clever people take them seriously though so the rest of us just have to take our lumps and endure the shock and bore contest that surrounds them. There are only ever going to be two parties that rule this country so prognostications about what is at best a 50/50 proposition strikes me as being utterly unworthy of attention. An entirely parasitic industry has sprung up around them and the unfortunate host is the political pundit. You see them everywhere these days stroking non-existent beards or perfecting their furrowed brows in the reflections of smart shop windows in even smarter suburbs. At home, when the curtains are drawn, they work on their sneers and emaciated metaphors until the blood of their loved ones pours freely from their ears. The internet saved a lot of them from the mad house and the rest just ended up here.

  132. imacca

    Apple Blossom@136


    Well it’s disappointing Labor has almost no chance of winning in WA. I guess I was just holding onto some wishful thinking.

    Its a pain, but i’ll still be out on the day handing out the HTV’s and smiling regardless.

    Weird sh$t can happen. Maybe Chairman Sniff will become Fib leader in a lighting coup?? 🙂

    Dont give up till Antony Green calls it mate.

  133. briefly

    http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/01/14/delhi-rape-case-lawyers-in-their-own-words/

    This case is one of the most compelling and tragic things I’ve known of. Violence in all its dimensions…too much at times to think through. Violence, depravity, deceit, shame, revenge, injustice, bereavement, the aftershocks, punishment.

    It is very difficult to deal with.

    It reminds me, too, of a place I go to have curry sometimes. It is run by a couple of Afghan women, who are as hard-working and thorough as it is possible to be. One is a refugee, the other a student who is hoping to get PR.

    They play a lot of Indian Cable TV Music Vids in their restaurant. So I watch this while I have my tandoori, naan and raita. I’ve been learning this music, taking it in. The cable is entirley popular/contemporary music vids.

    The music is invariably sentimentalist and escapist. And the visual set-up-scenes that support the music are also invariably escapist: glamorous, with references to broadway stages and beauty pageantry, colourful, with lots of themed dancing; and endless variations on the same theme. The leading male figure chooses/selects (seduces by his own will, is the idea) and/or woos and/or fights for and/or is nursed and/or is implored by a supplicant female – always a sensitive beauty, always alone, always subordinate, always helpless in her need for the male, sometimes resisting but always becoming his possession. This is played again and again to hold up the most lifeless vocal style you can imagine.

    The women are beautiful. but they are somehow enslaved. It is torture to watch. The subjection and possession of women is mass fantasy in India.

  134. briefly

    AB, it is hard to keep the spirits up if you think a loss is on the cards. But I think your candidate must have a chance. She seems like a dedicated person…and Barnett is not going to walk away with a win, not at all. Labor is having a proper go on the ground.

  135. crikey whitey

    Peta is getting her gear out of the fridge.

  136. briefly

    Dorrie Evans @ 138, this is simply fabulous. However, I do believe an emaciated metaphor would a sorry sight and would not last long. Surely such a production would stray onto the road outside, where the ranger would find it. It could be taken to a foster home and fattened up; then turned into a healthy simile before being released back into the community, where it could lead a happy, gainful life, possibly hitching up with imagery and raising a family.

  137. briefly

    gotta try to sleep in the adjectival heat…. 🙂 see y’all later

  138. Kevin Bonham

    Dorrie Evans@138


    That anyone takes opinion polls seriously is more the marvel. It’s right up there with astrology and entrail reading in my book.

    I shan’t be rushing out to buy your book, sounds to me it might be right up there with astrology and entrail reading. 😉

    Nate Silver (and several others) used opinion poll data to predict the results in every single state for the US presidential election. Astrologers and entrail-readers simply don’t get results like that by chance.

    There is indeed a lot of dimwitted punditry that surrounds polls, much of it coming from people who should know much better, but that doesn’t mean polls are useless. It just means people should be careful about over-ambitious readings of them.

  139. ratsak

    As Kevin showed and I stated earlier, the last 54 was the odd one out. A symptom of all the AWU hoo-ha. It showed that the Libs can still get a bounce out of manufactured scandal, but it’s short lived.

    It demonstrates how desperate Abbott was late last year. They surely knew they had nothing, but still Abbott sent out Julie to stop the bleeding he was copping especially with women. It worked, for a while. But it solved none of the massive problems Abbott faces going into an election year.

  140. BK

    And now it’s off to the flatlands for another day’s work.
    I will have the 51/49 wind in my sails.

  141. frednk

    [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    I await to be proved wrong, but it seems to me this leaked Morgan result talk emerged from Chinese whispers on Twitter.]

    It may not have made a mention on poll bludger but morgan face to face had labor ahead end of last year. There really is no reason to beleive it will not continue that way.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/Trends.cfm?

  142. Tricot

    Concur with the conventional wisdom re the March elections in the West.

    On previous posts I noted the fact that while Labor holds 26 seats at the moment, and could do with 28 – picking up 2-3 in the metro area, they are vulnerable in some country seats eg Albany and maybe Pilbara. So, leaves them much where they are.

    The West has it about right last Friday – 10 margins with 6 being Labor and four conservative. It is more likely that Labor will lose a couple of its marginals rather than the other way around.

    Mind you, with an even 3% swing to the conservatives, Barnett just might be able to govern without Grylls and his National harlots – in itself, not a bad thing.

    The current Barnett government is not tired enough, or made enough stupid mistakes this time around, to lose.

    On the federal numbers, it is interesting that ABC News Radio, for the first two hours this morning did not even mention a Newspoll was out – not even from “what the papers say”.

    When the item did surface it was centred on the increase to Labor coming from the Greens. Passing reference to the fact that the PV figures are about where there were in the 2010 election and not one reference to the MOE.

    Now, dare I say it, if there had been a 4% decline to the government, it would have been the lead article.

    From a strategic point of view, with a short time to the opening of parliament and a relatively short term before the budget, not a bad position for Labor to be in.

    As others have put it, the election is there for Labor to win.

  143. Laocoon

    Needless to say, ABC News Radio did not consider this particular opinion poll result worthy of mention on its 6am news bulletin…

  144. Yesiree Bob

    So, the stunts appear to be slowly backfiring for the stunt man ?

    Wonder if last weeks pics, of the Fireman Tony, might be some sort of catalyst ?

  145. sprocket_

    Newspoll tables

    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/01/15/1226553/983802-aus-news-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

    interesting 7% uncommitted 3% refused, and lower Green number. Virtually no change since 2010 election.

  146. Lev Lafayette

    Whilst getting a little off-topic from the thread at hand, I wish to comment on the prospects of the W.A. Labor Party.

    In a nutshell, I think they are in with more than just a chance. The last election was a big swing against Labor, but even with that the assembly ended up with LNP 29 to Labor’s 26 with 3 independents.

    Have a look at the swag of seats that are up for grabs; Jandakot, Kingsley, Ocean Reef, Wanneroo, Swan Hills, Southern River, Morley, Mt Lawley and Fremantle.

    Do the numbers Bludgers. You can see where this is heading.

  147. womble

    Morning All

    Head of Newspoll was on AM this morning, will be on again at 8 for those that missed it – was interesting he said there is no such thing as a rouge poll. It was all pretty positive for Labor until the end when he said it was still an election winning lead for the Liberals and they would win a number of seats.

    From memory, I think peeople have written in the past about how a government has never lost from 49%???

    Not that there isn’t a lot of work to do still – 8 months is a long time and I’d much rather the better guys were in front than still behind. The big things that happened that may have swung this poll

    – dumping the surplus promise, sensible politics
    – Ashby
    – AWU going nowhere
    – the desperation of the Liberals running out Peta etc

    BUT the biggest plus of the last month or so since the last poll is the government has stopped talking about Tony – let him make himself look stupid and stick to policy imo

    Speaking of policy – there are problems ahead – something needs to be done about the MRRT. If the big miners can pull an extra $60 + per tonne and still not pay any tax it’s broken and we’re being dudded. Question is should they fix it now or wait until after the election???

    Anyways, a good poll – I’m looking forward to a Morgan with Labor in front today and then a nice merging on Bludgertack once it’s updated 🙂

  148. womble

    oops rogue sorry – it’s early!!!

  149. Tricot

    Womble – just love your “rouge’ polls!

    Beats what is on offer at the moment.

    Agree with your cheery summation.

  150. Tricot

    Lev – the seats you highlight are certainly marginal, but I am not as hopeful as you seem to be.

    Take Morley, Freo and Mt Lawley – the first two should never have been anything else but Labor.

    However, the government pulled out all stops to get Mt Lawley PS up and running after the fire to support the local candidate. Maybe old Bob K can get up but I wonder?

  151. womble

    Adds a bit colour to the mornings Tricot 🙂

    Off to work, have a great day All

  152. mari

    Glad you are back BK even if you are off to the”flatlands” and won’t see this comment

  153. poroti

    Labor’s primary back to the same as it was at the last election and a 2PP of 51-49. A very nice starting point as we head to election 2013.

  154. OzPol Tragic

    Good Morning, Bludgers. Good Morning, Dawn Partol.

    Thanks, Sprocket! A ray of good news in a very grim January.

    Newspoll tables

    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/01/15/1226553/983802-aus-news-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

    So the last Newspoll for 2012 was the outlier, and 51/49 (with Newspoll’s MoE, 51/49 could go either way) with PM Julia well ahead of Abbott in the PPM, is the current newspoll “norm”.

    Womble

    [From memory, I think peeople have written in the past about how a government has never lost from 49%???]

    I’m not entirely certain of this (esp “never lost”); but I’m more confident that 49% with “a firm PPM lead”, is a winning position come election day – probably because, when the still-uncertain are in the ballot box, Who’s the better choice to lead the nation is critical.

    We’re still quite a way from Election13; which – barring some critical development (eg what might be the effects on global economies if US HoR refuses to raise the borrowing/ debt “ceiling”, which has the Indies supporting an early election) – is unlikely to be held before August.

    If a week is a long time in politics, 7 months is an eon. Probably the most critical question is Will the Liberals change LOTOs; and if they do, who will be the next LOTO?

    Most of the Libs’ traditional core constituencies are so disturbed by the current Oppo’s economic decisions (esp CP/ ETS, NBN, PPL) and lack of economic & fiscal vision, they want Abbott OUT! Pronto. They seem almost as disturbed by performances of the NSW, Vic & (esp) Qld Lib premiers, and fear an Abbott Government would be worse (rejection of the reduction in corporate tax for big businesses, on top of the tax to pay for Abbott’s PPL scheme, was a big mistake).

  155. confessions

    Morning all.

    Well, well. Their ABC has noticed the Newspoll after all.

    [Federal Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year, but its resurgence appears to have come mostly at a cost to the Greens and other parties, rather than the Coalition.

    The first Newspoll of 2013, published in The Australian newspaper today, shows Labor’s support rose six points to 38 per cent since the previous poll in December.

    At the same time, support for the Coalition and the Greens dropped two points each to 44 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/support-for-labor-surges-in-latest-newspoll/4464788

  156. confessions

    [The Federal Opposition’s Indigenous Health spokesman Andrew Laming has been accused of posting inflammatory remarks on social media about racial tensions south of Brisbane.

    Dozens of police are blockading a street in Woodridge in Logan after weekend clashes between Indigenous and Pacific Islander groups.

    The situation deteriorated early last night and the riot squad was called in to control the crowd.

    Mr Laming tweeted:

    “Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/coalition-mp-tweet-on-racial-tensions-labelled-disgraceful-/4464988

    I thought the coalition had imposed a kind of ban on its MPs using twitter/social media?