tip off

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

3565
  • 151
    Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    Concur with the conventional wisdom re the March elections in the West.

    On previous posts I noted the fact that while Labor holds 26 seats at the moment, and could do with 28 – picking up 2-3 in the metro area, they are vulnerable in some country seats eg Albany and maybe Pilbara. So, leaves them much where they are.

    The West has it about right last Friday – 10 margins with 6 being Labor and four conservative. It is more likely that Labor will lose a couple of its marginals rather than the other way around.

    Mind you, with an even 3% swing to the conservatives, Barnett just might be able to govern without Grylls and his National harlots – in itself, not a bad thing.

    The current Barnett government is not tired enough, or made enough stupid mistakes this time around, to lose.

    On the federal numbers, it is interesting that ABC News Radio, for the first two hours this morning did not even mention a Newspoll was out – not even from “what the papers say”.

    When the item did surface it was centred on the increase to Labor coming from the Greens. Passing reference to the fact that the PV figures are about where there were in the 2010 election and not one reference to the MOE.

    Now, dare I say it, if there had been a 4% decline to the government, it would have been the lead article.

    From a strategic point of view, with a short time to the opening of parliament and a relatively short term before the budget, not a bad position for Labor to be in.

    As others have put it, the election is there for Labor to win.

  • 152
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:17 am | Permalink

    Needless to say, ABC News Radio did not consider this particular opinion poll result worthy of mention on its 6am news bulletin…

  • 153
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    So, the stunts appear to be slowly backfiring for the stunt man ?

    Wonder if last weeks pics, of the Fireman Tony, might be some sort of catalyst ?

  • 154
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    Newspoll tables

    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/01/15/1226553/983802-aus-news-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

    interesting 7% uncommitted 3% refused, and lower Green number. Virtually no change since 2010 election.

  • 155
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    Whilst getting a little off-topic from the thread at hand, I wish to comment on the prospects of the W.A. Labor Party.

    In a nutshell, I think they are in with more than just a chance. The last election was a big swing against Labor, but even with that the assembly ended up with LNP 29 to Labor’s 26 with 3 independents.

    Have a look at the swag of seats that are up for grabs; Jandakot, Kingsley, Ocean Reef, Wanneroo, Swan Hills, Southern River, Morley, Mt Lawley and Fremantle.

    Do the numbers Bludgers. You can see where this is heading.

  • 156
    womble
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    Morning All

    Head of Newspoll was on AM this morning, will be on again at 8 for those that missed it – was interesting he said there is no such thing as a rouge poll. It was all pretty positive for Labor until the end when he said it was still an election winning lead for the Liberals and they would win a number of seats.

    From memory, I think peeople have written in the past about how a government has never lost from 49%???

    Not that there isn’t a lot of work to do still – 8 months is a long time and I’d much rather the better guys were in front than still behind. The big things that happened that may have swung this poll

    - dumping the surplus promise, sensible politics
    - Ashby
    - AWU going nowhere
    - the desperation of the Liberals running out Peta etc

    BUT the biggest plus of the last month or so since the last poll is the government has stopped talking about Tony – let him make himself look stupid and stick to policy imo

    Speaking of policy – there are problems ahead – something needs to be done about the MRRT. If the big miners can pull an extra $60 + per tonne and still not pay any tax it’s broken and we’re being dudded. Question is should they fix it now or wait until after the election???

    Anyways, a good poll – I’m looking forward to a Morgan with Labor in front today and then a nice merging on Bludgertack once it’s updated :)

  • 157
    womble
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    oops rogue sorry – it’s early!!!

  • 158
    Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Womble – just love your “rouge’ polls!

    Beats what is on offer at the moment.

    Agree with your cheery summation.

  • 159
    Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Lev – the seats you highlight are certainly marginal, but I am not as hopeful as you seem to be.

    Take Morley, Freo and Mt Lawley – the first two should never have been anything else but Labor.

    However, the government pulled out all stops to get Mt Lawley PS up and running after the fire to support the local candidate. Maybe old Bob K can get up but I wonder?

  • 160
    womble
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Adds a bit colour to the mornings Tricot :)

    Off to work, have a great day All

  • 161
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Glad you are back BK even if you are off to the”flatlands” and won’t see this comment

  • 162
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Labor’s primary back to the same as it was at the last election and a 2PP of 51-49. A very nice starting point as we head to election 2013.

  • 163
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    Good Morning, Bludgers. Good Morning, Dawn Partol.

    Thanks, Sprocket! A ray of good news in a very grim January.

    Newspoll tables

    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/01/15/1226553/983802-aus-news-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

    So the last Newspoll for 2012 was the outlier, and 51/49 (with Newspoll’s MoE, 51/49 could go either way) with PM Julia well ahead of Abbott in the PPM, is the current newspoll “norm”.

    Womble

    From memory, I think peeople have written in the past about how a government has never lost from 49%???

    I’m not entirely certain of this (esp “never lost”); but I’m more confident that 49% with “a firm PPM lead”, is a winning position come election day – probably because, when the still-uncertain are in the ballot box, Who’s the better choice to lead the nation is critical.

    We’re still quite a way from Election13; which – barring some critical development (eg what might be the effects on global economies if US HoR refuses to raise the borrowing/ debt “ceiling”, which has the Indies supporting an early election) – is unlikely to be held before August.

    If a week is a long time in politics, 7 months is an eon. Probably the most critical question is Will the Liberals change LOTOs; and if they do, who will be the next LOTO?

    Most of the Libs’ traditional core constituencies are so disturbed by the current Oppo’s economic decisions (esp CP/ ETS, NBN, PPL) and lack of economic & fiscal vision, they want Abbott OUT! Pronto. They seem almost as disturbed by performances of the NSW, Vic & (esp) Qld Lib premiers, and fear an Abbott Government would be worse (rejection of the reduction in corporate tax for big businesses, on top of the tax to pay for Abbott’s PPL scheme, was a big mistake).

  • 164
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    Morning all.

    Well, well. Their ABC has noticed the Newspoll after all.

    Federal Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year, but its resurgence appears to have come mostly at a cost to the Greens and other parties, rather than the Coalition.

    The first Newspoll of 2013, published in The Australian newspaper today, shows Labor's support rose six points to 38 per cent since the previous poll in December.

    At the same time, support for the Coalition and the Greens dropped two points each to 44 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/support-for-labor-surges-in-latest-newspoll/4464788

  • 165
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    [The Federal Opposition's Indigenous Health spokesman Andrew Laming has been accused of posting inflammatory remarks on social media about racial tensions south of Brisbane.

    Dozens of police are blockading a street in Woodridge in Logan after weekend clashes between Indigenous and Pacific Islander groups.

    The situation deteriorated early last night and the riot squad was called in to control the crowd.

    Mr Laming tweeted:

    “Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/coalition-mp-tweet-on-racial-tensions-labelled-disgraceful-/4464988

    I thought the coalition had imposed a kind of ban on its MPs using twitter/social media?

  • 166
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    The Liberal Party's website describes Mr Laming as 'Australia's most innovative user of social media in politics'.

    :lol:

  • 167
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Abbott has been a failure

    he could not force the hung Parliament into an early election

    He has not improved the coalition primary or 2pp from 2010

  • 168
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    In trying to attack @JohnQuiggin, @GregHuntMP can't even get the basics right - CCA commissioners aren't public servants. Fool.

  • 169
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    WA farmers have revealed a radical plan to make taxpayers and environmentalists pay for the protection of bush on agricultural properties.

    Peak industry group WAFarmers wants the State Government to compensate farmers financially in cases where restrictions have been placed on land clearing.

    It also wants legislation to allow farmers to sell off parcels of bush to environmentally minded individuals and organisations.

    WAFarmers president Dale Park said yesterday it was time for the conservation movement to put its "money where its mouth is" and pay for the protection of thousands of hectares of bush on privately owned farmland.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15837038/farmers-seek-payouts-to-protect-bush/

    If private citizens want to pay money to farmers to protect bushland that’s their business. But why should taxpayers be forced to pay?

  • 170
    sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    2013 is starting well – abbott’s got nothing left in the tank, and the government has a positive message to sell on education, health, NBN, economic recovery and the performance of the carbon price. Abbott has to explain his party’s positions on IR, NBN, ‘Direct Action’ and raising the GST. In 2010, the PM suffered because of stilted performances, the NSW and Qld Labor governments, and people being angry over Rudd (as well as Rudd leaks). 2010 was peak abbott – many people hadn’t realised what a complete d-head he was.

  • 171
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    Womble

    “there is no such thing as a rouge poll”

    Is this a poll that tends to show that there may be reds under the bed?

    Or us it just a poll where most respondents are females born in the 20′s who were rampant flappers around the time of WW2, complete with their glowing cheeks? :)

  • 172
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    Hopefully Dorrie Evans @ 138 did bother to read Kevin B @ 145 for a bit of edification.

  • 173
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    The Newspoll rep I/Vd on ABC AM said WTTE that “the election result now comes down to the campaign”.

    The campaign, (vis a vis Abbott’s tendency to foot in mouth, his lack of policy, his lack of policy nouse, his inability/unwillingness to perform under sustained questioning, his reliance on mantras, his self characterisation as ‘the boy who cried wolf ‘, and the sad and sorry nature of his shadow bench) is the one thing the premature speculators have ignored over the past 18 months.

  • 174
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    psyclaw 173
    Hopefully the electorate will see a lot more of TA’s weakness despite Peta in the background and MSM covering, I think they are!

  • 175
    Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:01 am | Permalink

    Morning all. A good rsult for Labor, and bad for Tony Abbott and Liberals, though not everyone sees it that way:

    Federal Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year, but its resurgence appears to have come mostly at a cost to the Greens and other parties, rather than the Coalition.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/support-for-labor-surges-in-latest-newspoll/4464788

    How does the ABC say this is a bad result for the Greens more than Liberals, when later in the same article it says they have both lost the same amount of support (2%)?? Who writes this stuff?

    For those involved in media policy, I think it is high time that we had some sort of binding code of conduct or policy that, for on-line news websites, the identity of the writer or source of the content should be stated as a byline under the story, just as it is in print newspaper articles.

    That being said, it is a good result for Labor, and Gillard in particular, who personal stocks continue to rise. The dumping of the foolish and undeliverable surplus promise has had no negative effect. While I wish it was done months ago, the handling of the announcement by Swann has worked well.

  • 176
    Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    I agree with other posters that, if we were to have any sense of balance in the media, there should be discussion about Tony Abbott’s leadership immediately following this poll. As Meguire Bob has said, after two years, he has gained no traction in the polls. His time is up.

  • 177
    Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Off to work for me, have a good day all.

  • 178
    Darn
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Well that’s a good kick start to the new year. Should ensure we don’t hear too much more from the likes of Stephen T (not a bad effort from the “worst PM we have ever had” Stephen) JM and Geoff who all came out of the woodwork yesterday doing handstands over the Essential poll. Sorry to rain on your parade fellas.

  • 179
    sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    Mr Laming tweeted:

    “Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?”

    what a pack of low-lifes run the ‘liberal’ party nowadays. Hanson got disendorsed for less offensive comments, and this bloke is a shadow minister for indigenous affairs.

    when I earlier said “abbott’s got nothing left in the tank”, I forgot he’s still got xenophobia – and he’ll have no shame fanning the flames.

  • 180
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    Socrates @175

    The ABC and 2GB shock jocks are as one. I tuned in to hear their 9:00 a.m. news to see if the poll was reported. It was and quite fairly. They even said it was close and likely to get closer. Then on came the Ray Hadley substitute and hey ho he took the same line as the ABC.

  • 181
    jeffemu
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    Ohhh bewdy. News 24 has the blonde bimbo Jane is now dissecting the Newspoll.

    Honestly I’d back it in she wouldn’t know the difference between Arthur Caldwell and Arthur Quid

  • 182
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Socrates:

    The problem is that OM have locked themselves into a narrative of the coalition winning the next election, and Abbott being the next PM that it’s difficult or them to run stories which counter that narrative.

  • 183
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    TTF&B

    I do not think there would have any significant lessening of conservative anger if the Government had said “this is not a tax” and they would have just accused Gillard of lying about whether she would bring in a carbon tax both before and after the election.

    I disagree. To begin with “conservative anger” is confected. They’re not angry, but trolling. Those that aren’t completely ignorant and stupid know it’s not a tax, and one should not pander to the ignorant and stupid. There’s some “conservative anger” over carbon pricing of course, but that is a different matter.

    Correcting the record would have made the carbon tax claim controversial and forced those in the media affecting “balance” to use neutral language. On every occasion that I complained to radio presenters’ producers over “carbon tax” they would cite the PM in their defence and I would be forced to point out that journalists should seek to describe objective reality rather than some politician’s spin. That’s how damaging it was.

  • 184
    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    I like their idea of reportage. A report that begins with a jump in support for the Coalition is usually followed by “and…” or “which means…” One which begins with a jump in support for the ALP is usually followed with “but…”

    And it doesn’t matter how slim that margin is, you’re going to hear that the Coalition would win an election if they’re ahead, and you’re going to hear the ALP is in danger of losing an election if they’re ahead.

    Nobody reports straight. Editorialisation is everywhere.

  • 185
    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    You probably don’t need to look at the polling to know what’s going on anyway. Abbott out in his fire gear and stories about how nice he’s been to Credlin tell you all you need to know.

  • 186
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Video posted by Leone on yesterday’s “Essential Poll” *Thread. Definitely worth reposting

    And now – Fireman Tony The Musical.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4hQwZGOulE&feature=youtu.be

    Geez, William; 3 *threads in one day! I know things got rough after lunch yesterday, coz I checked in when I returned c2.00pm. Not only had the heatwave turned cool, damp & very windy, there were more trolls around than Grieg, Tolkein – or even Peter Jackson – imagined, and I was getting nasty flashbacks of antiVietnam War/ antiApartheid/ antiRhonaJoiner Joh BP Era.

    BTW: *thread. OK. I know I’m a Youthquaker relic from the Internet’s preWWW Dark Ages. ;-)

  • 187
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:20 am | PERMALINK
    You probably don’t need to look at the polling to know what’s going on anyway. Abbott out in his fire gear and stories about how nice he’s been to Credlin tell you all you need to know.

    Well put now we wait for the final nail News Lts editorials saying “Tony Abbott an experiment gone wrong” ;)

  • 188
    Rossmore
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Could PB regulars consider signing this petition calling on Laming to apologise for his disgraceful tweet last night:

    http://www.change.org/en-AU/petitions/andrew-laming-mp-apologise-to-logan-residents-and-all-cald-indigenous-australians?utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=url_share&utm_campaign=url_share_after_sign#share

    Update W Swann has just signed – 40 additional signatures in last two minutes ….

  • 189
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    We have an official response from Tony Abbott to Andrew Laming’s racist comments

    https://mobile.twitter.com/rustedon1962/status/290844357496545280/photo/1

    Peta Credlin was on the money with the tweeting ban for Liberal MPs and candidates. It appears that Laming has refused to follow her directions.

  • 190
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Sprocket

    Good one!!

  • 191
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Rossmore 188 have done with utmost pleasure

  • 192
    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    I might be off-track here, but a little proper comparative research into the accuracy of predictions from established media vs independent blog sites might bring up some interesting results. Also a bit of research into what people expect/demand from news services, as opposed to what they deliver.

    I would say there is a disjunct between what people say about news/journalism and the way they behave as a result of what they hear and read. In other words, that people are a lot more credulous than they say they are.

    Because the way we source news is in flux right now, there may be some interesting findings. The responsibility journalists and editors have is, or ought to be, a lot higher than they claim it to be.

    I’d be especially interested in findings for the ABC. Their fact-checking and attitude to ‘balance’ is, I believe, way out of step with the public perception of them. They’re still ‘trusted’ as a news source; but they’re moving to absolve themselves of the responsibility for high-standard journalism. In other words, they’re trading off their reputation to supply news with a slant to it. Having access to a log of complaints forwarded to them, and what they’ve done in response to them, would be very interesting indeed.

  • 193
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    This poll result probably reflects a lack of politics over the holiday period more than anything else. Once the hype returns, the picture could change.

    On a local note, Pat Conlon’s retirement from the South Australian Cabinet leaves a hole that cannot be filled. The late trucking tycoon Alan Scott regarded Pat as the only member of the government who knew what he/she was doing.

  • 194
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    In the US Editorial controversy brewing.

    @ReutersMedia: CNET reporter resigns over CBS intervention in award http://t.co/Z8wSp6iM

  • 195
    This little black duck
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Andrew Lemming is getting extensive coverage on ABC radio news.

  • 196
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    How does the ABC say this is a bad result for the Greens more than Liberals, when later in the same article it says they have both lost the same amount of support (2%)?? Who writes this stuff?

    Yep -2% Greens, -2% LNP -2% Others. Who indeed writes this:

    “ABC” version:

    Federal Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year, but its resurgence appears to have come mostly at a cost to the Greens and other parties, rather than the Coalition.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/support-for-labor-surges-in-latest-newspoll/4464788

    AAP version from last night:

    Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year but its resurgence appears to have come at a cost to the Greens and other parties, rather than the Coalition.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-winning-back-lost-ground-newspoll-20130114-2cq2p.html

    ABC’s value add: put in a “mostly” (and an extra comma)

    A bit like the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy! Your 7 cents (or whatever it is) at work today…

  • 197
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    @sortius: “The ABC has tried to contact @AndrewLamingMP for comment without success.” Already in hiding, typical LNP: can’t face the music #auspol

  • 198
    The Finnigans
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    I got it @AndrewLamingMP is” “Australia’s most innovative user of social media in conflict politics”. #auspol

  • 199
    leone
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Andrew Laming describes himself as ”Australia’s most innovative user of social media in politics”. He’s even written a handbook for MPs on how to use Twitter and Facebook to interact with voters and included tips on how to avoid social media pitfalls. What a shame he didn’t read his own advice.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/mps-inflammatory-tweet-slammed-20130115-2cqc7.html

  • 200
    This little black duck
    Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    He’s no Lady Day

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejJJiCA-EzY

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...