tip off

Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

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  • 801
    Steve Clements
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Testing new screen name: old one (surname, christian name) was giving me the pip.

  • 802
    ltep
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    I quite like Senator Crossin but less than half of politicians seem to leave politics of their own choosing and they would all know this prior to starting the job. It’s only human to feel anger at long service to the party not being respected – but that’s the way the game works it would appear.

  • 803
    Dorrie Evans
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    clements steve @760

    Did she really say that? I shouldn’t be surprised I guess. She is a foul mouthed frump with poison for blood. Typical of the Liberals. They are only ever truly happy when people are unhappy and trodden underfoot.

  • 804
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    john wright

    The John Howard’s patented Idiot Trap aka his Ministerial Code of Conduct claimed the “lives” of 7 ministers in the first year alone. Mighty fine shootin’ that.

  • 805
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    WWP and Gecko re the VIC health funding and Plibersek’s comments my point was that we should show some scepticism about those types of announcements rather than just assume they are accurate. Both sides play political games with the truth. In this case Plibersek is trying to divert attention away from federal government budget decisions that have a direct impact on health funding in 2012/13.

  • 806
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    Yikes! Look at what’s approaching Sydney.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml#skip

  • 807
    Steve Clements
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    Dorrie, yes she did. Absolute gold. Labor should be riduling her for it.

  • 808
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    782 jw
    I lived through Ben Chifley, and I have no doubt he’d be spinning in his grave if he knew the type of person currently leading his party.

    I am not a member, but have been a lifelong voter.

    If you read L F Crisp’s biography of Ben Chifley, I think you might find the reverse. Chifley spent a lot of time on the outer in the 30s and then was subject to spoiler tactics from Lang Labor in NSW while PM. Shades of the Rudd destabilising of the last few years.

    Chif also did not have many friends among the media owners and was subjected to a lot of personal attacks. Given the advantage of time, I’m sure he’d be very much in favour of the reforms passed by this government, even the attack on Big Tobacco.

  • 809
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Tanya is trying to direct attention TO the Federal health contribution to Victoria not away from it. Ted’s claim that a formula didn’t work how he wanted is a bit thin (ie bald lie he had been called on).

  • 810
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Speaking of Bolt

    The conservative commentator Andrew Bolt has labelled the Premier, Barry O’Farrell, an “idiot” and lampooned his request for an inquiry into racial vilification laws in NSW as “straight out of the Leninist playbook”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/andrew-bolt-hits-out-at-idiot-barry-ofarrell-20130122-2d45w.html#ixzz2Ig5VfbE0

  • 811
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    John Howard lost several ministers (about 6?) in his first year or so in office because of his Code of Ministerial Conduct. He quietly dropped the Code and things settled down. Problem solved.

  • 812
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    Where did the Member for Indi make those comments about Peris?

  • 813
    Geoff
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    wow it is not a matter of when labor screw up again but when.

  • 814
    Gecko
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    davidwh @ 805

    Scepticism is indeed wise but you’ll have a hard time convincing me that Federal Labor has been anything but devoted to improving the nations health through generous funding. I doubt Tanya has any need to bend the truth with a state government that has cut the arse out of most things to get a surplus and retain its AAA rating.

  • 815
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Has any PM ever had so many victims from their own party?

    You should ask John Howard. Under his leadership of the Liberal party, an entire faction was killed off without a blink of an eye.

  • 816
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Steve777

    The Roll of Dishonour.

    Jim Short Oct 1996
    Brian Gibson Oct. 1996
    Bob Woods Feb. 1997
    Geoff Prosser July 1997
    John Sharp Sept. 1997
    David Jull Sept. 1997
    Peter McGauran Sept. 1997

    Warwick Parer -dropped from next ministry

  • 817
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    geoff

    no, we get back to how the media interprets events.

    Abbott recently went searching for an ‘authentic’ aborigine as a candidate. He would obviously have parachuted her in ahead of whoever the locals wanted.

    He got criticised for his language – he didn’t get criticised for his attempt.

  • 818
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    OMG. Bolt’s take: Gillard dumps Senator for not being black.
    This is racial discrimination, he shouts.

    Incredible.

  • 819
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    One Peter Slipper was a Parliamentary Secreatry to John Howard in 2002.

    Was “boned” soon after….

  • 820
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics
    Oh dear political journalism – this is *your* industry, in Australia, right now http://twitpic.com/bx8u1v (HT @s_bridges )

  • 821
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    @latikambourke: ‘Family Photographs’ section on Tony Abbott’s website? *raises eyebrow* http://t.co/DtlVcwvn

  • 822
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    @latikambourke: ‘Family Photographs’ section on Tony Abbott’s website? *raises eyebrow

    Why?

  • 823
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    JW was obviously using PB for colonition advertising yesterday.

    See my post @ 414 (P9) last night.

    I wonder how many and which naive PBers will continue to engage him/her/it so that colonition advertising can continue to flow here as if part of a legitimate conversation, and for how long ?

    The same ones who continued to feed JM a few days ago!

  • 824
    Geoff
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    zoomster 817
    How the media interprets the event??
    “As an advocate and federal representative for the NT, I will not be making further comment until I have spoken with and consulted NT branch members and my colleagues”
    Yep that is a TOTAL media beat up.
    Just another classic backstab by Gillard.
    Backs to the wall peeps Gillard is coming.

  • 825
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    guytaur:

    :lol:

  • 826
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    Maybe its the amount of photos I do not know what Latika is on about. However a critical comment from her regarding Abbott is worth noting.

  • 827
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    For fans of racially motivated preselection interventions, a trip down memory lane.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-20091025-hem5.html

  • 828
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    One sarcastic response

    Russell Mahoney ‏@russellmahoney
    @latikambourke Tony has a wife and daughters? I had no idea.

  • 829
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    And guest troll for the day is……you whistle I’ll point!

  • 830
    gigi
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Wasn’t Ian Campbell forced to resign under JH?

  • 831
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    guytaur

    Not sure it is critical,Latika would also “raise eyebrow” if someone gave her a 1 carat diamond ring.

  • 832
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    This new Japanese Government is looking a worry.

    Japan's Deputy Prime Minister Has A Modest Proposal For The Elderly: "Hurry Up And Die"

    Everyone knows that Japan, whose population is now at the oldest average age it has ever been in its history, sold more adult than baby diapers for the first time in 2012, and is "older" than any nation in the world, has a "demographic problem."

    What few may know, however, is that it also has a secret plan to fix said "demographic problem" - a solution that would make Hitler, Goebbels and Stalin proud.

    Earlier today, Taro Aso, 72 years young, and the deputy PM of the man set to unleash Abenomics on Japan (for the second time, only this time it will be different), suggested that the elderly in Japan should just "hurry up and die" because "You cannot sleep well when you think it's all paid by the government."

    Uhhhmmm....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-21/japans-deputy-prime-minister-has-modest-proposal-edlerly-hurry-and-die

  • 833
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    geoff

    yes. Something which every party leader I can think of has done is portrayed as if it’s an unprecedented event.

    So it’s a beat up.

  • 834
    Sohar
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    Obviously the “W” in “Wright” is silent.

  • 835
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Good point. However in that event more likely to be more than a raised eyebrow.

  • 836
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    davidwh:

    For a party whose MPs continue to assert Abbott doesn’t have a ‘woman problem’ they certainly go to some lengths to ram the women in his life down our throats.

  • 837
    Ratsars
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    john wright @# 756
    They did have my vote, until now. I don’t like Gillard, but that wasn’t enough to deter me. Now it is.

    It would appear that it does not take much to shift the vote of John Wright. It would appear that policies and the economy come a very distant second to pre selection maneuvering. If that is the case we can expect John Write to change his mind at least a dozen times before the election.

  • 838
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    By the way the Gillard/Peris thing today is that what you call a media stunt? :)

  • 839
    Martin B
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    For fans of racially motivated preselection interventions, a trip down memory lane.

    Oh but that’s completely different, that’s the ‘right’ kind of racial motivation…

  • 840
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Andrew Bolt’s readers (and I expect Alan Jones’ listeners and followers of other right wing populist media figures) seem to pine for a time before multiculturalism and even before post-war immigration when Anglo Australians ruled the roost, Aborigines ‘knew their place’ and all of their neighbours looked and thought like themselves. It is only 40 years since racism informed our immigration policy and many ‘right (wing) minded’ people wish it still did. They feel disempowered because they can no longer tell racist jokes without risking disapproval. They also seem to have a strongly hierarchical view of Society. While white, working class people were way down on the totem pole, they could still look down on and despise Aborigines and other non-whites, non-Anglo Europeans and assorted others including unwed mothers and gay people. Now they are losing their right to sneer at their neighbours and are therefore getting paranoid, afraid that maybe they’re now on the bottom of the heap. I think this is what the Andrew Bolts and Alan Joneses of the world exploit to gain an audience for their poisonous rantings.

  • 841
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    No that is not a media stunt. That is a party political announcement

  • 842
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    @abcscience: News: A US spacecraft orbiting Mars has provided evidence of an ancient crater lake fed by groundwater http://t.co/KFVA2YXn

  • 843
    Geoff
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    “as if it’s an unprecedented event.”
    Not for labor anymore. Back stabbing is business as normal.

  • 844
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Just checking guytaur. I need to be careful or I may go the way of some recent and short lived members here.

  • 845
    Gecko
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    Plibersek V Baillieu

    A litany of mistakes, errors, incompetence and inability to manage the Victorian health system

    GAME

    They've cut $616 million from their own health budget and now they're looking around for someone else to blame.

    SET

    I am desperately sorry for Victorian patients having to put up with a Health Minister and a Premier that have once again put politics above patient health.

    MATCH

  • 846
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    :lol:

  • 847
    This little black duck
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    davidwh,

    Labor doesn’t do stunts. You know that!

  • 848
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    Andrew Leigh:

    Labor MP Andrew Leigh said that while rank and file preselections were the ideal system, he could understand Ms Gillard's frustration about the lack of indigenous representation in the Labor Party.

    "I can understand the Prime Minister's determination to have an Indigenous representative in the House of Representatives," he told Fairfax Media.

    He said it was important the the Labor caucus looked like the "rest of Australia", adding that rank and file preselections had failed to preselect an indigenous candidate for 12 decades.

    Dr Leigh said that while his experiences with Senator Crossin had "all been "terrific", he had found himself turning to Liberal MP - and indigenous parliamentarian - Ken Wyatt for informal advice on indigenous issues.

    "I feel myself being pulled in two directions," he said of Tuesday's announcement

    http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/axed-alp-senator-slams-pm-over-peris-pick-20130122-2d45p.html

  • 849
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Well fwiw Sam Maiden and Dennis Atkins agree the Peris decision is a good move for the ALP.

    Maiden confirmed the gallery even threw Peris “a few curve balls” at the press conference. I saw her easily bat away two of those gotchas, and deferred to the PM on one.

  • 850
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

    Jennifer Hewitt doesn’t agree with the decision, and says this will go on and on, and there will be a reaction by voters to the way this has done.

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