tip off

Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

3884
  • 101
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Briefly @96;

    Nicely put. The best way to read Bolt is to assume any semblance his rants have to the truth as accidental. I find it difficult to believe that he repeatedly puts out false, misleading, or spurious material about his perceived “enemies” in the Great Culture War (where terms like “left” and “right” and acceptible terms of combat change whenever it is convenient for him and his accolytes), for him to be not aware of its accuracy. At best it means he’s an intellectual pigmy and a sloth.

  • 102
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    These people would be marginally more believable if they tidied up their language (as well as their lies).

    From: Jose Vinal
    Financial Counsellor and Director
    Monetary and Capital Markets Department

    Re: Funds Recovery

    The International Fund through the help of Interpol recovered your funds which some criminals diverted. We found out that you have spent so much money trying to get your funds.

    Right now, the fund is deposited with a vault company in Holland which your presence is required. The Vault Company in under IMF and the officer in charge will assist you.

    The IMF will not persuade you over your payment, so it’s left to you to confirm your arrival in Holland . Seeing is believing. Issues of documents, stop order and these entire crazy schemes that made you spent so much in the hands of criminals are over.
    Jose Vinal
    Financial Counsellor and Director
    Monetary and Capital Markets Department
    Email:jose.vinal@aim.com
    IMF

  • 103
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    John, Essential polls weekly, Nielsen polls monthly (which it is commissioned to do by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age), and Galaxy polls about once every two months (which it is commissioned to do by News Limited tabloids).

  • 104
    john wright
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    Ok, thanks William. Any idea when they will have their first results this year?

  • 105
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    No, but Nielsen usually tries to avoid clashing with Newspoll, who will be polling this coming weekend, and Galaxy invariably picks a gap where neither a Newspoll nor a Nielsen is due. So not for two or three weeks at least in either case.

  • 106
    john wright
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Thanks. At the risk of sounding pesky by asking so many questions, how are the four ranked in relation to accuracy and reliability? Why are the results from Newspoll and Essential so different?

  • 107
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    The IMF will not persuade you over your payment, so it’s left to you to confirm your arrival in Holland . Seeing is believing. Issues of documents, stop order and these entire crazy schemes that made you spent so much in the hands of criminals are over.

    There are two things I in life I can’t stand; people who are intolerant of other people’s cultures; and the Dutch.

  • 108
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    Did you try googling “True confessions of a serial poll bludger” and clicking through to the first link? Herald Sun paywall works same as The Australian one.

  • 109
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    Australian Librarian wows the twitterverse with announcemnt they are to re classify Lance Armstrong’s titles to fiction.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21115720

  • 110
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    Briefly:

    On utility, in practice, the utilitarian solution is one that protects the greatest number of people, regardless of the consequences for the few that may lose as a result.

    Firstly, I see that reading as too narrow. It’s a calculus of the greatest number and the greatest good. If there are those who have been dispossessed, then the marginal costs of granting them dignity in their lives is far less than the cost of increasing the happiness of the non-disposessed. Strictly speaking, we ought to be ensuring that such people are assisted intensively to have the life chances we take for granted.

    In any event, as I said above, if I’m claiming a right, then I am bound to support others in claiming it. I’m not disadvantaged, compared with most people and certainly not compared with the dispossessed, and so all those who are as privileged as I am or more are bound to do what we reasonably can to assist those who stand worse in getting their needs met. That serves the Golden Rule.

  • 111
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    What no-one got this morning about the new rail freight line wasn’t that it should have been built a hundred years ago, or that it doesn’t come off the budget bottom line, or even that it will revolutionize rail freight through Sydney, but…

    ‘We wanted to make sure we got it right’: new rail line opens … three years late
    The first train line in Sydney to be paid for and built under the Rudd and Gillard governments opened on Monday, $700 million over budget and three years after it was promised to be finished.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/we-wanted-to-make-sure-we-got-it-right-new-rail-line-opens–three-years-late-20130121-2d279.html#ixzz2IaXsGJal

    That’s it, according to the journalist, Jacob Saulwick… nothing else.

    Oh sure, Albanese says lots of nice things, but that’s just what he says.

    The only bit of hard reporting that Saulwick did in his own right, the part where he put his neck on the line by citing an actual, y’know, fact, was to dismiss it as, in his leering opinion, too expensive, and to somehow manage to tie it in with the NBN. Bugger whether it’ll be used or not, or will do its job (like the Adelaide-Darwin rail link doesn’t).

    All the rest Saulwick left to “he-said/she-said”.

    Thanks to the journalism profession for their unerring optimism and confidence-inspiring writing.

    That’s the spirit!

  • 112
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    GG apparently it was a prank and the library concerned said this morning this wasn’t going to happen. Good yarn though.

  • 113
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    BB,

    The only difference between this announcement and the NBN is that the NBN is not a hundred years too late.

  • 114
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Presidential Inaugration early am ABC24.

    Planet America on same early evening ABC24.

  • 115
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    Bugler

    That was exactly the right sort of ancient quip the rubbish email deserved!

  • 116
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    crikey whitey@114


    Presidential Inaugration early am ABC24.

    Planet America on same early evening ABC24.

    3:30 AM AEDT.

  • 117
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    It’s very sad when you shoot the messenger for bringing bad news. The fact is that no recent poll (except possibly Morgan) has had Labor in the 40s where it needs to be.

    I hate olt too, but he’s spouting stuff that too many people believe. A whole lot of folk simply aren’t listening to the Gillard/Swan narrative.

  • 118
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    Bolt

  • 119
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    It’s very sad when you shoot the messenger for bringing bad news.

    If you shot more then there would be less bad news.

  • 120
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    TT,

    Labor won the last election with 38%.

  • 121
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    I hate Bolt too, but he’s spouting stuff that too many people believe. A whole lot of folk simply aren’t listening to the Gillard/Swan narrative.

    That’s right, he’s a Liberal and he’s reciting the Liberal Party’s line, and the 40% of the population who always vote Liberal always agree with him. Why does this surprise anyone? And who cares?

  • 122
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    Is it Duck season yet Duck?

    What’s your thoughts about shooting more in that environment?

  • 123
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T@43

    Fine words from Andrew Bolt regarding the Gillard government:

    “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will soon be back in the fray, having had time for reflection over the break. He may, with profit, have decided that much as he may wish to respond to Labor’s slimy character assassination, his wisest course is to relentlessly wrench the conversation back to the economy and to trust. [..]

    Except that Abbott is clueless about the economy as both Costello and Hewson have attested, and would be playing to an area in which Australia’s performance under Labor has been very good by world standards.

  • 124
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

    psphos,

    Looks to me like the election will be polarised with safe seats becoming safer for both sides.

    It will probaly come down to who can craft the best bribes for the 5-10% who still have an open mind. The mortgage belt will decide this election again.

  • 125
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    Greensborough Growler@120


    TT,

    Labor won the last election with 38%.

    Yes, though they only “won” in the sense that two seats that would have been Coalition seats were won by indies who then supported them. Also, off the back of a high Green vote that will almost certainly decline this time. I’d be very surprised if 38% was good enough again.

  • 126
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    GG,

    Not unless they are carrying bad news.

  • 127
    leone
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    The only reflection Abbott has had anything to do with during his break is the image of himself reflected in the windows of the Davidson RFB truck.

  • 128
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    Bolt (corrected in the interests of accuracy):

    Prime Minister Julia Gillardwill soon be back in the fray, having had time for reflection over the break. She may, with profit, have decided that much as she may wish to respond to the Liberal’s slimy character assassination, her wisest course is to relentlessly wrench the conversation back to the economy and to trust. The little the Liberals has promised – and is promising – must be contrasted with their lack of delivery. Can we believe a word Abboty says? Can we really trust him with our money and our jobs? This reckless spending must stop. The environment must be protected. Let’s create wealth before we let government spend it.

    And I’d plea for an end to such bitter division and the punishment of dissent. Australians shouldn’t be in fear of standing up for their governnment. Newspapers shouldn’t be threatened. Journalists should not fear the sack for what they say. Australians shouldn’t be scared to speak their mind, whether at work or at the football. Time for some sunshine.

    One thing may have to be fine-tuned. unless Home Affairs Minister Jason Clare has decided to no longer announce boat arrivals, no asylum seekers have arrived by boat so far this year.”

    When you can change so few words and still find the statements applicable, then someone’s spinning….

  • 129
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    The cracks are widening…

    A CLOSE friend of the Obeid family has admitted lying about his business involvement with them at a corruption inquiry into coal mining exploration licences in the NSW Hunter.

    Joseph Georges, a Strathfield real estate agent and close family friend of the Obeids, gave evidence on Monday before the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).

  • 130
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    Kevin,

    Maybe, maybe not.

    The fact that Gillard has the ALP back at 38% now (Newspoll) with the trend her way indicates to me that the force is currently with Labor.

  • 131
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Duck,

    How can you tell the difference?

    Better to shoot them all and let the Duck Creator sort them out!

  • 132
    briefly
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Fran, I agree with all you say @ 110.

    What if you are not one of those who enjoy advantage, but are among the dispossessed? What is the ethical course of action in this case?

    Obviously, I am thinking of those who have had their lands confiscated or whose cultural lives have been dislocated.

    I am also thinking of those who have been subjected to violence of various kinds because this results in a kind of demolition of the interior – a kind of smashing of personality – that is every bit as brutal as the taking of land.

    And then there are those who have been broken by the dishonesty or the betrayal of those they have trusted.

    I wonder, beyond the political, what is the ethical path for the discarded, the enslaved and the grieving?

    (I keep thinking about Billie Holiday, too, and Malcolm X, and Eddy Mabo and the great artists of the Kimberley, among the very many. But what if you do not beauty in you? What then?)

  • 133
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    Might be a useful exercise sometime to unpick why Labor failed to gain any seat advantage off its actual 2PP vote in the 2010 election. After all they won 25 seats off the Coalition in 2007 and would have had sophomore advantage (in many cases “double sophomore” in most of those.

  • 134
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    Leroy

    In tried the OO way but it didn’t work. Will try again

  • 135
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    Kevin,

    The candidates are………….

    Andrew Bolt, Fearless Fly, Kevin Bonham!

  • 136
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    I just read that Omar Khayyam was best friends with the guy who started the Assassin sect.

  • 137
    poroti
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    The cracks are widening…
    A CLOSE friend of the Obeid family has admitted lying about his business involvement with them at a corruption inquiry into coal mining

    Perhaps we should say the fracking has started for the Obeid’s ?

  • 138
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    {Abbott's} wisest course is to relentlessly wrench the conversation back to the economy and to trust.
    A Bolt.

    Please do. :)

  • 139
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    Pirate Party could be the alternative to the Greens who seem to be going mainstream. Greens could become the “Yo yo’s, Gangham Dancing One Day Cricket” of the political environment.

    Still around, but so unfashionable for the young at heart.

  • 140
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    I got the impression the ICAC lawyer was trying to tell us something here…

    "You are depositing sums in excess of $400,000 in relation to the undocumented loan, interest-free, given in respect of a company whose business you do not know, in respect of a venture you cannot describe, involving a man, Gardner Brook, who you do not even know ... exists," Mr Watson said.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/labor-decision-outraged-big-miners/story-e6frea7l-1226558174364

  • 141
    confessions
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    Is bolts tv show still going? That surprises me. I thought it had no viewers.

  • 142
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    Diogs,

    I think the moving finger has well and truly moved on!

  • 143
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    We get back to why Mandela turned to terrorism, and refused to renounce it.

    If the oppressor has a conscience, then ethical means of engagement can be effective.

    If the oppressor genuinely does not see those they are oppressing as human, then it doesn’t matter what the oppressed do, or what ethics they bring to the fight – they lose, because they have ethics and the other side doesn’t.

    (A bit like when girls fought boys, back in my High School days. The girls won, because the boys had rules about how fights should be conducted – the girls didn’t even know the rules existed).

    It might give you some satisfaction as an individual, going down as the result of a useless gesture, to know that you’re on the side of Good and the other person is Evil. But it doesn’t help anyone else in the long run – you end up with a lot of dead Good people and lots of alive Bad ones, which is scarcely going to create a mood for change in the long run.

    I sometimes run this past people as a sort of political discussion point: If you genuinely believe that your party has right on its side, that it will deliver a better life for the majority of people than the others, then surely you SHOULD do anything in your power, however immoral or ethically questionable, if it results in your party winning.

    Otherwise, surely, you are being selfish – putting your own individual desire to behave morally and ethically above the greater good?

    (Not saying I operate like that, I hasten to add – just that it’s an interesting way of looking at the issue….)

  • 144
    poroti
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    For some reason the lawyers words bring this poem to mind.

    Yesterday, upon the stair,
    I met a man who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    I wish, I wish he’d go away...

    When I came home last night at three
    The man was waiting there for me
    But when I looked around the hall
    I couldn’t see him there at all!
    Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more!
    Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door... (slam!)

    Last night I saw upon the stair
    A little man who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    Oh, how I wish he’d go away

  • 145
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    Karl ‏@karl_w_w

    @tonybrownITM The 93% FTTP is already in progress. The really hard task would be testing every bit of copper in Aus for FTTN viability.
    Retweeted by Robert Oakeshott MP

  • 146
    Lord Barry Bonkton
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    poroti@50


    leone
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 2:05 pm | Permalink
    Sorry Wazza and Bananaby, ………….http://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Nationals-cruise.png ]
    Ah the possible names for the cruise. The Ship of Fools, Voyage of the Damned, Das (Gum)Boot ……

    WOW ,only $1000 a ticket ? would have sold out by now ? Buy Chopper Read a ticket and get him to ask the Hard questions about actually what they know about Ashby-gate scandal .

  • 147
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    An uncharitable person might erroneously describe an undocumented, interest-free loan to a man you don’t know for services you can’t describe as a bribe.

  • 148
    poroti
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    Lord Barry Bonkton

    Buy Chopper Read a ticket and get him to ask the Hard questions about actually what they know about Ashby-gate scandal .

    GOLD ! :lol:

  • 149
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    There is precedence for that view Dio.

  • 150
    Diogenes
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    I preferred the Labor ministers version about Gordon Brown.

    In Downing Street upon the stair
    I met a man who wasn't Blair.
    He wasn't Blair again today.
    Oh how I wish he'd go away.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...