Automated phone pollster ReachTEL enters the Victorian state field on behalf of Channel Seven, and corroborates the recent trend of Newspoll.
ReachTEL has conducted an automated phone poll of state voting intention in Victoria for Channel Seven, as it has been doing on a monthly basis in Queensland. The result confirms the general trend of Newspoll, as well as a tendency for ReachTEL to broadly reflect Newspoll’s results which has been evident from its Queensland numbers. The poll’s figures have Labor in an election-winning position with 36.8% on the primary vote (compared with 36.3% at the November 2010 election), the Liberals with 34.4% (38.0%), the Nationals with 3.5% (6.8%) and the Greens with 12.4% (11.2%). Going off estimated preference flows from the 2010 state election and rounding to whole numbers, this suggests a Labor lead of 53-47 on two-party preferred (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election).
Furthermore, Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews records a surprise lead on the question of preferred premier, of 55.6-44.4 (all varieties of non-respondent obviously being excluded here). Ted Baillieu has a combined very good and good rating of 24.9% against 45.2% poor or very poor, with no comparable results provided for Andrews. The poll finds 48.9% saying the government’s performance has made them less likely to vote Liberal at the federal election against 26.3% more likely, while 50.9% deem themselves worse off under the Baillieu government against 9.9% better off.
The poll was conducted on Friday night from 1164 respondents, for a margin of error of around 3%.