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Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

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The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1221 comments

1,221 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

  1. davidwh

    From a technical point of view it’s not official until the PM goes to the GG and the government goes into caretaker mode? So it could change at any time?

  2. guytaur

    davidwh

    Nice desperate point

  3. jeffemu

    Bewdy now I’ve got the policital genius… the jockey Nick Dole telling me what the Prime Minister has just said.

    Thanks Nick

  4. rummel

    [Actually it gives 8 months for leadership challenge, for Abbott to get new job to cover his mortgage.]

    Now a date has been set, Abbott is locked in. Maybe that was the aim! Now only Julia Gillard can stop Abbott getting into the lodge lol. Talk about forcing the wavering labor types in behind you, like swallowing razor blades over a sword.

  5. David McRae

    What a speech, fantastic.

    But our media, oh my god. She had to explain how pre-polling to one hack. It’s going to be dates framed as longest campaign rather than certainty and pissing on a Jewish holiday .. and glasses.

    I guess it’s balance, we got good effective government, thus we need shithouse pre-school media for balance.

  6. ajm

    Just got the email from ALP HQ to party members about the PM announcing the election date.

    Keeping this quiet before the announcement was a major achievement for the campaign organisation. If that’s an indication of how well it’s going to be run it augurs well for a good result.

  7. Son of foro

    Rummel

    I see you’ve been taking spelling lessons from the Sydney Uni Libs.

  8. victoria

    davidwh

    Why would the PM change the date?

  9. ajm

    [Malcolm Turnbull ‏@TurnbullMalcolm

    Deeply disappointed that Julia Gillard chose to hold the election on Yom Kippur – the most solemn and sacred day of the Jewish year.]

    Just imagine what she would have done if she WASN’T in thrall to the zionist lobby?

  10. guytaur

    “@TheKouk: 14 September is the anniversary of the Nazis winning 107 seats in the German election… OMG!”

  11. rummel

    A nice stunt to remove fingergate and novagate off the news. Still no visit to the GG…. Show me the GG!

  12. zoidlord

    BBC Reports for Election Date:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21256429

  13. davidwh

    victoria wasn’t suggesting she would but just wondering if that was the case.

  14. zoidlord

    @rummel/1032

    It’s called due process, something your side lacks on.

    They wanted an “election now” before going to GG.

  15. zoidlord

    Australian Senate ‏@AuSenate

    The Parliamentary Education Office has some useful information on the prorogation of Parliament http://bit.ly/WeiMmt

  16. CTar1

    victoria

    [Why would the PM change the date?]

    Because she’s 👿

  17. guytaur

    @chrismurphys: Children mocked for as ‘four eyes’. Hard to get them to wear glasses.Now Murdoch DTele does it to PM #auspol http://t.co/M2CZLFnE

  18. jeffemu

    I wonder what the POTUS is doing around ummmmmm August 2013.

  19. Psephos

    Yom Kippur 2013 will be the 40th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, when a tough female Prime Minister, after initial setbacks, threw the forces of evil back over the Canal and won a great victory.

  20. Julia

    I standby my post @94. Got the date right for a start.

  21. Rossmore

    Somehow Rummell I don’t think you are LOLing right now …… 🙂

  22. guytaur

    @BBCWorld: “You’ve got to love a country that organises its election dates around its football finals #auspol” – @NickBryantOz http://t.co/WuJac207

  23. victoria

    Did anyone get to see the last few questions.? Last question I managed to see was about Robert Mc Clelland

  24. triton

    rummel, those are minor issues that have no electoral impact. It’s almost a pity there wasn’t some serious political crisis that she could have knocked out of the news.

    [From a technical point of view it’s not official until the PM goes to the GG and the government goes into caretaker mode? So it could change at any time?]

    Are you serious? She has locked herself in now.

  25. Rossmore

    Psephos tweet that to MT

  26. davidwh

    guytaur not desperate. I am just not sure that actually announcing a date means much while the government continues so changes to leadership or the date can still happen.

  27. victoria

    julia

    Sure you are not Ms Gillard. 😀

  28. triton

    Forgot to tag above quote “davidwh”. Didn’t mean it to appear from rummel.

  29. victoria

    On twitter

    Jewish voters have 8 months to get their pre-polling organised. Orthodox Jews can never vote on a Saturday, any Saturday. #npc #auspol

  30. Peter of Marino

    Was coke bottles the only journo that referred to the PM as “Ms Gillard” ?

  31. Kinkajou

    Vic

    First authoritative splat?

  32. triton

    davidwh
    […while the government continues so changes to leadership or the date can still happen.]

    Leadership is interesting. Will this affect Rudd? By doing this Gillard has in a sense taken ownership of the period up to the election. I suppose Rudd could still challenge and promise to maintain the date.

  33. Psephos

    I’m not on Twitter under my own name. Anyone else is to send it to MT if they like.

  34. victoria

    Kinkajou

    Most definitely

  35. Leroy

    http://australianpolitics.com/2013/01/02/when-will-the-2013-federal-election-be-held.html
    [When Will The 2013 Federal Election Be Held?
    Jan 02, 2013

    …………..

    Is there anything we haven’t considered?

    Well, try this. On February 2, 2011, New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key announced that the election would be held on November 26. New Zealand was hosting the Rugby World Cup and Key said he wanted to allow the country to concentrate on the Cup and have some certainty without him playing politics with the election date.

    The only time I can remember this happening in Australia was in 1979 when Victorian Liberal Premier Rupert Hamer announced a May election in February. There was a sizable swing against the government.

    Gillard could return to work around Australia Day and make an announcement that she intends to govern for the bulk of the year without unnecessarily playing politics. It fits with her “getting on with the job” theme. She could say she doesn’t want the nation distracted by election speculation for the next nine months because there are many important things to be done. She could say she promised to run full term and announce October 19 as the election date.

    But would Gillard do that? Wouldn’t she be giving up an important political advantage over the Opposition?

    Possibly, but she also needs a political circuit-breaker. She needs something that puts the pressure on Abbott to come up with policies. She needs something that takes election speculation out of the media and allows her to take advantage of being an incumbent government getting on with governing.

    Gillard could announce the date in the next few weeks, there’d be a bit of a fuss for a few days but then things would calm down. It might work.]
    He tipped the wrong date (although Sept 14 was on his shortlist), but….very good call.

  36. guytaur

    Windsor on 24

  37. The Finnigans

    OMG John Hewson is still on #Ruddstoration” – must be to feed them painful pavlovian doggys

  38. absolutetwaddle

    To those of you who reckon this announcement is somehow going to make the media lift their game: dream on.

    Now the Labor’s a punching bag with an expiration date.

  39. guytaur

    “@frankellyabc: Tony Windsor likes knowing the election date – says we can now get on with governing and leave the campaigning until August. He runs again?”

  40. triton

    Peter of Marino
    [Was coke bottles the only journo that referred to the PM as “Ms Gillard” ?]

    Grattan always is as far as I’ve noticed.

  41. Player One

    [ … the government continues so changes to leadership or the date can still happen. ]

    The date – no. The leader – yes … of the opposition.

    Gillard is giving the LNP a sporting chance by making sure they have sufficient time to find a real leader, and also sufficient time to develop some actual policies.

  42. guytaur

    “@BernardKeane: John Hewson quickly explaining that naming the election date now creates “massive uncertainty”.”

  43. Aguirre

    Missed the last few questions as I had to deal with something. But the press corps weren’t really onto it, were they? Perhaps some of them were planning to ask when the election would be held. The set play seemed to be:

    1. Niggle about the budget re ‘surplus’.
    2. Work in Abbott talking points, such as they are.
    3. If absolutely necessary, refer to something Gillard talked about in her speech

    The more flexible of them managed to adjust to the election day announcement. Speers wouldn’t have had a clue when Yom Kippur is, so he got a message from the Coalition I suspect.

    The questions are now showing on APAC, if anyone cares to sit through them again.

  44. davidwh

    Leroy that makes a lot of sense.

  45. This little black duck

    Musrum’s stfu script has a very useful option to hide comments with specific text such as, purely for example, “Rudd”.

  46. victoria

    Aguirre

    The journos were flummoxed. It was hilarious

  47. guytaur

    @smh: Analysis: @JuliaGillard should be congratulated for nipping six months of election speculation in the bud. http://t.co/VGMDX1c4 #auspol

  48. This little black duck

    guytaur@1057


    Windsor on 24

    Abbott on tranquilizers.

  49. guytaur

    “@prismatic7: Bloody good on you, Tony Windsor. You’ve represented your electorate as best you can, regardless of partisan politics. #abcnews24 #auspol”

  50. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Market reaction to election announcement: ASX crashes 0.001%; AUD surges 0.002 cents; bond yields unchanged! Sums up the issue very well

  51. guytaur

    Oakeshott after Windsor on 24

    Windsor talking up Gonski

  52. Laocoon

    Yet another complete FAIL by the Press Gallery – in their very own lair.

    [Didn’t see Rudd getting the boot
    Didn’t see Bob Carr becoming Foreign Minister
    Didn’t see Peter Slipper becoming Speaker
    Didn’t see the election date announcement]

    Completely useless.

    All they can do is serve up confected drama, opposition talking points, or trivia – even on this very day, prostate-gate.

    Don’t do policy. Don’t do hard politics. Don’t do investigations into conspiracies.

    All I see when I see the Press Gallery is potential cost savings for their current employers.

  53. The Finnigans

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    The BISONs Special & World Exclusive @GenGusface Gussie interveiwed Thommo @DobellThommo – https://soundcloud.com/bludgersounds2/craig-thomson-audio-interview

  54. Rex Douglas

    Malcolm Turnbull obviously prioritizes individual religious processes over the national political process.

    Interesting decision by the PM to set the date. Certainly clears space for actual POLICY discussion and comparison, which I think the Govt has a huge advantage.

  55. Rossmore

    Psephos …done, slightly abbreviated

    @TurnbullMalcolm 2013 will be the 40th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, when a tough female PM after initial setbacks, won a grt victory.

  56. guytaur

    Are the bookies running bets on SSO’s during faux election campaigns?

  57. guytaur

    @ABCNews24: Rob Oakeshott on #abcnews24: Election announcement “pretty shrewd political move from the PM.” http://t.co/XirK70Fe

  58. imacca

    So, we have an election date. 🙂

    Interesting, but unequivocally a positive move. Government doing the Governing thing, Opposition…..well….not.

    Am very sad to have missed the actual announcement. To have seen the journos faces when it was announced would have been priceless.

  59. victoria

    Finns

    Wow what a scoop by gussie!

  60. rummel

    [Are you serious? She has locked herself in now]

    Just like the carbon tax and surplus?

  61. rummel

    Nice way to trip the libs into a date and then drop a snap election in two months time when there not ready.

  62. zoidlord

    @rummel/1081

    Public didn’t want Surplus, Carbon was fear campaign by Coalition, now that didn’t have much effect at all now did it?

    Infact made food cheaper.

  63. victoria

    On twitter

    Libs complaining about election falling on Yom Kippur, not realising that many Jews couldn’t vote on ANY Saturday. You’re pathetic! #auspol

  64. Aguirre

    I look forward to the time later this afternoon when the Coalition and press corps finally agree on why the date for the election is wrong. There will be a couple more hours of floundering about for those who enjoy comedy. Sky is probably the best place to look.

  65. cud chewer

    Speaking of Abbott being locked in.. what’s happening at the bookies?

  66. lizzie

    Good speech by PM. Strong and positive. Gazumped Tony. There’s a lady I’d like to vote for. 😉

  67. Laocoon

    I guess we can scratch Wentworth off likely ALP gains 😀 👿

  68. guytaur

    Oakshott will announce if he runs or not in Mid March.

  69. victoria

    [@TurnbullMalcolm We vote on Saturdays Malcolm. Every election we have is on the Jewish Sabbath.]

  70. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius

    #NBN strengthens plans for telemedicine trial http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-30/nbn-strengthens-plans-for-telemedicine-trial/4490694

  71. Rossmore

    Imacca … Journos facial reaction wasn’t shown, but there was a visceral gasp as the announcement was made.

  72. guytaur

    @btckr: Michelle Grattan asked PM about “media policy”. Big clue as to what’s been driving the news media’s anti-Labor campaign. #mediafail

  73. lizzie

    Aguirre

    I can tell you’re enjoying yourself today 😀

  74. Burgey

    First time since Abbott became LOTO that the government has gazumped the Tories with the early year political story. They’ve been slack in the past with that.

  75. zoidlord

    @guytaur/1077

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Election betting: Coalition into $1.26: Labor $3.75

  76. cud chewer

    Hmm.. sportingbet still has the ALP at 3.75

    Way over the odds 🙂

  77. poroti

    The Finnigans

    Well done the Gusface. Another star for the general ?

  78. guytaur

    Burgey

    The political strategy from Labor has been impressive. No other word for it.

  79. triton

    [“@frankellyabc: Tony Windsor likes knowing the election date – says we can now get on with governing and leave the campaigning until August. He runs again?”]

    I thought Windsor had said several times last year that he would run again, including to Fran.

  80. rummel

    Anyway, a date has been set and the light at the end of the Labor tunnel is nearing. Two terms, two PMs, and three speakers, it been a good run for labor.

  81. Rex Douglas

    Howard entitlement era of middle class welfare is about to end with this coming budget. Better late than never.

  82. zoidlord

    @rummel/1101

    Your way out of line.

  83. victoria

    Well done Gus!

  84. victoria

    [Mr Denmore Damn the PM for depriving the press gallery of nine months of election date speculation. What will the ‘insiders’ talk about now. Policy??]

  85. Aguirre

    lizzie@1094


    Aguirre

    I can tell you’re enjoying yourself today

    I am. The press and the Coalition keep organising these co-ordinated campaigns, and the ALP keep scattering them to the wind. But better than that, each time it happens another block goes into place for the ALP, and another avenue gets cut off for the Coalition. Abbott’s right about the python squeeze – it’s around his throat.

  86. rummel

    [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 2:22 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/1101

    Your way out of line.]

    Oh! Because I fail to support “Julia Gillards Australia Labor Party”

  87. guytaur

    “@sortius: How elections are called is telling. LNP: 2 weeks out to lock out voter registrations. ALP: 6 months to include everyone #auspol”

  88. triton

    [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits
    If Gillard survives to election she’ll overtake Barton, Whitlam, Fisher and then … Gorton (by 23 days). #mytrivialstatistic
    Retweeted by Latika Bourke]

  89. Patrick Bateman

    Stuff Yom Kippur, she’s put the election during the most sacred time of year, AFL finals, aka footballadan.

  90. Patrick Bateman

    [“@sortius: How elections are called is telling. LNP: 2 weeks out to lock out voter registrations. ALP: 6 months to include everyone #auspol”]
    Tells you nothing except that people who are less likely to be registered are more likely to vote Labor. Nothing to do with inclusiveness IMHO.

  91. Carey Moore

    [Countdown is on our misery is coming to an end.

    http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130914T20&p0=196&msg=Labor+gets+the+knife ]

    A doom clock. How thoughtful.

  92. Aguirre

    Stephen T, I’m sure your misery will continue no matter what. You come across as perpetually miserable.

  93. Just Me

    1042
    Rossmore
    [Somehow Rummell I don’t think you are LOLing right now …… 🙂 ]

    Somehow I don’t think he quite understands what just happened at the NPC. 🙂

  94. triton

    Betting agencies won’t like this.

  95. Gorgeous Dunny

    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    SULC ‏@SydneyUniLibs

    JG spurning more lies. Of course, no mention of the $250 billion debt that she has lugged on all of us. Bugger off! #auspol
    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas

    It seems that spelling and comprehension have still not improved since the infamous Alan Jones guest appearance.

  96. guytaur

    @wonkydogman2: Senator Stephen Conroy speaks about the NBN start time in Bendigo: http://t.co/a1CftjbG via @bendigoweekly

  97. Patrick Bateman

    Interesting combo of calling an election while attacking middle class welfare (if that is indeed what is happening).

    Speaking of cutting middle class welfare, it’s amazing how on 99% of articles about the govt in the last two years there are loads of comments about Labor’s spendthrift ways, but the second they talk about spending cuts there are loads of comments (from the same types) about Labor’s cynical attack on society’s most vulnerable. Basically these people hate Labor no matter what they do.

  98. Laocoon

    If Abbott survives to election he’ll overtake Howard’s first stint as LOTO (by 41 days)
    🙂

  99. Just Me

    1073
    Laocoon
    [All I see when I see the Press Gallery is potential cost savings for their current employers.]

    As increasingly do the employers, it seems.

  100. zoidlord

    Ben Hennessy ‏@ben_j_hennessy

    Federal Ind @OakeyMP has welcomed the fed #election, telling @PRIME7NthCoast he was aware of the PM’s decision prior to the announcement
    Retweeted by Robert Oakeshott MP

  101. Gorgeous Dunny

    This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    Michelle: “Ms Gillard, …” Grub!

    That moment of respect a while back was never going to last.

  102. Tricot

    Once again the PM has totally wrong-footed the conservative media.

    Was it not so many weeks ago there were confident predictions of an “early election” almost being mandatory for the government?

    On top of this the conservatives now have their bluff called.

    The election is there for Labor to win and making the whinging conservatives suffer for another 3 years will be worth it. The light at the end of the tunnel is for Labor not for Abbott and his hench-persons.

    The best laugh is the ‘tut-tut’ about Yom Kippur.

    According to one on-line source, the total Jewish population in Oz is currently 107,000.

    Given that half of these either don’t vote or can’t the potential number of persons who might be affected is maybe 50,000 at best – if they are that sensitive.

    As someone has pointed out, every Saturday is a Jewish Sabbath, and so the option remains to postal vote or pre post vote.

    The stupidity of some – MT in this case and some elements of the media – is there for all to see.

  103. Just Me

    1075
    Rex Douglas
    [Interesting decision by the PM to set the date. Certainly clears space for actual POLICY discussion and comparison, which I think the Govt has a huge advantage.]
    Certainly does.

    Love to be a fly on the wall at the emergency Liberal campaign planning meeting, being hastily organised right now.

  104. Patrick Bateman

    You eternal optimists here who constantly suggest that Labor’s masterplan is going to get them re-elected – you can get $3.75 on Labor at Sportsbet right now. I assume you’ll all be rushing off to nearly quadruple your money in under a year?

  105. Gorgeous Dunny

    Laocoon
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

    David Speers re-asks fixed terms question. Why?

    Maybe he was standing in for Fool Gilbert.

  106. Just Me

    1120
    Laocoon
    [If Abbott survives to election he’ll overtake Howard’s first stint as LOTO (by 41 days)
    🙂 ]
    Now that’s a stat I can love. 😀

  107. lizzie

    If you can bear to read it, Bernardi likens rejuvenating the nation to going on a new diet regime
    [Our bureaucracy is now bloated, the fiscal blood pressure is high and the ‘brains’ that are running the country are lethargic. What little muscle is left to keep us moving has been attacked by arthritic taxes and the politics of envy.]
    Apparently he’s been attending Boot Camp for twelve months but that is not enough. More austerity and physical exercise are needed.

    http://www.corybernardi.com/2013/01/the-body-politic.html

    Shades of the original Hitler Youth? (Sorry to sensitve sould)

  108. muttleymcgee

    [You eternal optimists here who constantly suggest that Labor’s masterplan is going to get them re-elected – you can get $3.75 on Labor at Sportsbet right now. I assume you’ll all be rushing off to nearly quadruple your money in under a year?]

    I got $7 some months back. Three weeks ago it was $4.05, now $3.75.

    Were you too late, Patrick?

    Figures.

  109. Stephen T

    Aguirre

    Make the most of the next 227 days because it will be a tough or should I say miserable 12 years come September 15th.

  110. Patrick Bateman

    [Were you too late, Patrick?]
    No, because while I regard it as a nightmare scenario, I still think it is significantly more likely than not that a combination of public, media and ALP stupidity will get the Libs back into power.

  111. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius

    @TurnbullMalcolm I’m sorry, are you Jewish? Is Australia now Israel? That’s the weakest attack on the PM so far.

  112. guytaur

    Pathetic media

    Lots of repeat reporting on 24 of reaction to date of an election we knew was happening this year anyway. Reporting of actual topics in speech by PMJG. Minimal at best.

  113. The Finnigans

    The Greens now have to decide, as I cant do it for them, if they want Julie Gillard or Tony Abbott as PM

  114. guytaur

    “@Warbz: Preferred PM poll for Channel 7 and Yahoo. You know what to do tweeps http://t.co/Qxhrd1FQ #AusVotes”

  115. Patrick Bateman

    [The Greens now have to decide, as I cant do it for them, if they want Julie Gillard or Tony Abbott as PM]
    I’m confident they’ll decide to do whatever will maximise their vote.

    As will Labor.

    As will the Liberals.

    Labor people need to get over this idea that the Greens have some sort of duty to campaign for them. When was the last time Labor did the Greens a solid to help them win anything? Oh, that’s right, in fact Labor would rather preference psychotic fringe right wingers.

  116. triton

    guytaur
    [Reporting of actual topics in speech by PMJG. Minimal at best.]

    Well, she would have known that. Nothing was more certain.

  117. Patrick Bateman

    ABC “news” running the least flattering picture possible of Gillard on their website.

  118. imacca

    Will be interesting to see if the Libs move on Abbott, now the election date is locked in? I suspect that they wont at this point, after all he has already started his “mini” campaign.

    [Ms Gillard said Australians weren’t interested in campaigns without content, or platitudes devoid of purpose.

    “There is now clearly the time and certainty necessary for the people and parties contesting the election to lay out their fully detailed, costed plans for the timely consideration of voters,” she added.

    Ms Gillard said by announcing the date so far in advance, the opposition no longer had an excuse not to provide detailed costings ahead of the poll.

    “They have two things that an opposition has never had before to enable them to do that,” she said.

    “One, they’ve got the benefit of a fixed election date now with several months notice.

    “Two, because of what we’ve done with the Parliamentary Budget Office they’ve got more resources available to them than an opposition has ever had before in the history of the nation to produce proper costings.”]

    This is really an absolute gift to the Press pack. they are now deprived of their usual meat and potatoes of an election year in speculating about dates. But, they have a very clear opening to run hard at ALL the political parties on actual policy and very importantly, costings.

    The public service now knows exactly when the election is happening and can get all the data lined up ready to present. The PBO can probably be a lot more effective than they would have been and there is time for major scrutiny and bashing if the Coalition decide to do the Hogwarts route again. Provided of course there are no leaks from the PBO, but if there are will be questionable if they are from ALP or Coalition sympathisers?? I’d be looking carefully for the Coalition to try and undermine that process i think.

    One effect of announcing the date could be locking the Libs into their current leadership “team”. Lol! Yup they will go to the election with as talent-less bunch as has ever been seen on the opposition benches.

    Apart from underlining the fact that PMJG is in fact PM there are a lot of implications to announcing the date now, Creates a new dance with the media that have been sooooooooooooo uncritically supportive of Abbott, and i’m not sure Abbott’s mob will be able to work out the steps.

  119. ajm

    Just had a thought – maybe Malcolm Turnbull was trying to lock in the Muslim vote behind Labor?

  120. triton

    I can understand Milne wanting fixed terms, but 14 Sep wouldn’t normally be considered a prime date to have elections on forever.

  121. Space Kidette

    Love it when JG leaves them all flat footed!

  122. bemused

    Content wise JGs speech was good and she handles questions well.
    But, like most Australian PMs, she is no great orator. But her opponent is far worse so she should rank well in comparison.

  123. The Finnigans

    Oh how i love a 8 month long election, you can feel it coming on, thank you PM

  124. Greensborough Growler

    Psephos, Your point about Yom Kippur is a ripper. I’ve tweeted a truncated version to Turnbull and Frydenburg who is uppity about the matter also.

  125. Patrick Bateman

    Gillard should move soon and push hard to lock Abbott into a series of policy-themed debates. Get in now before the Libs have an anti-Abbott-exposure strategy in place.

  126. Space Kidette

    Lauren ‏@LozVox

    Vote for your preferred PM. The libs have cottoned on that you can vote as much as you like and are gaining ground. http://au.news.yahoo.com/cloud/polls/popup/d9c409d7-6ab7-3ab2-954f-8e1fadd35503/

  127. poroti

    MARI !!!

    What a marvellous day for the Australian election. Sept 14 was the date in 1741 when Handel completed his “Messiah” .You may have another reason to turn the volume up to 11 and play the Hallelujah chorus. 🙂

  128. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius

    @TurnbullMalcolm The LNP called an election on Leif Erikson Day, Rememberence of Ataturk Day, & Lachit Divas, where were you then? #auspol

    sortius ‏@sortius

    The power of Wikipedia, showing the glaring hypocrisy of @TurnbullMalcolm in one easy search. Turkish community is far bigger than Jewish.

  129. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    .@TonyAbbottMHR The timing of that “mini campaign” was a masterstroke… well, wasn’t it?

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    o_O => “@Simon_Cullen: The All Ords is up 0.1% overall for the day. (Although it has gone down slightly since PM announced election date.)”

  130. Patrick Bateman

    Seriously though – this is on during footy finals, a lot of people will potentially be travelling interstate on the second weekend in September…

  131. guytaur

    This should be fun

    “@abcnews: Oppn Leader Tony Abbott calls press conference to respond to election announcement at 3.40pm AEDT #ausvotes”

  132. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Will he say refuse the date? “@KarenMMiddleton: LOTO Abbott will respond to the PM’s announcement of Sep 14 as election day @ 3.40pm”

  133. Mithrandir

    [Seriously though – this is on during footy finals, a lot of people will potentially be travelling interstate on the second weekend in September…]

    They can vote BEFORE the election day. Seriously, it isn’t that difficult a concept.

  134. poroti

    zoidlord

    [.@TonyAbbottMHR The timing of that “mini campaign” was a masterstroke… well, wasn’t it?]
    Tone’s Mini just got run over by a Mack .

  135. guytaur

    I persoanally like this date. It means I get the NBN locked in before Libs can do anything about it. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  136. zoidlord

    @guytaur/1158

    Too bad about the 2/3 of Australia though.

    Pity people don’t see this.

  137. Greensborough Growler

    Patrick,

    Footy finals a furphy.

    AFL have two games that wekend. One on Friday night and the other on Saturday night.

    Can’t see that interfering with anyone’s Football enjoyment. Maybe could affect local football more.

  138. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Election betting: Coalition backed as if unbeatable: Into $1.22; Labor $4.15.

  139. guytaur

    “@kimogrady1: FFS. We have absentee voting AND separation of the church and state. Suck it up & drop the faux outrage #facepalm #auspol #YomKippur”

  140. Carey Moore

    [Seriously though – this is on during footy finals, a lot of people will potentially be travelling interstate on the second weekend in September…]

    If only there was some way that people travelling interstate on election day could vote…

  141. Just Me

    Very good speech from Gillard.

    Like the way she started off giving both the achievements of her government thus far, and the challenges it and the nation face.

    It also killed off the idiotic ‘lack of vision’ meme, set the cat among the media and opposition pigeons, and dragged debate back towards policy and actual achievements where Labor have a clear advantage.

  142. cud chewer

    I predict confidently that Mod Lib will vote for Abbott 🙂

  143. Kinkajou

    So its the next Yom Kippur war?

  144. guytaur

    “@Ausflatfish: With Parliament’s last sitting day 27 June, Govt’s #dataretention proposals dead in water. Moot whether #natsecinquiry will report. #auspol”

  145. Toorak Toff

    Bad luck for Julia if a great window of opportunity – e.g. a leadership kerfuffle in the Opposition – is missed because of her pre-ordained election date.

  146. zoidlord

    @Toorak/1168

    Don’t get your hopes up.

  147. davidwh

    Labor had better hope that neither the Bulldogs or Tigers are in the NRL finals that weekend or Labor will lose half their voters in Western Sydney.

  148. This little black duck

    [Tone’s Mini just got run over by a Mack .]
    To be topical, a Mack just ran up Tony’s Mini arse and gave it the finger.

  149. Kinkajou

    $4.15 sounds like a good investment….won’t get any better ( doh! the pun)

  150. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    well done PMJG.Love the glasses too.

    Strap yourselves in, we are about to engage warp-drives.

  151. davidwh

    Is that the “Real Julia” look SK?

  152. guytaur

    davidwh

    Sydney Wester Suburbs people are no more stupid than anyone else. They can multitask and arrange voting around it. Either prepolling or voting in half of day when not watching footy

  153. Patrick Bateman

    [If only there was some way that people travelling interstate on election day could vote…]
    I know they CAN vote, but will they?

    I’m not complaining for my own benefit, just think it’s an odd weekend to pick – don’t governments usually avoid weekends with major sporting events and the like?

    If, say, West Coast and Adelaide were to be playing finals in Melbourne that weekend, you’d have potentially 80,000 people out of their home state on the day of the election.

  154. davidwh

    Sorry Puff not SK.

  155. davidwh

    But they are easily distracted by footie guytaur.

  156. Kinkajou

    PB

    There’d be crickets at the MCG

  157. Aguirre

    Stephen T@1132


    Aguirre

    Make the most of the next 227 days because it will be a tough or should I say miserable 12 years come September 15th.

    Well, I’m not confident the ALP will win, but you’ve painted a pretty accurate picture there of what life would be like if the Coalition win. It would probably take another 9 years to undo the damage an Abbott government would wreak in its single term in office.

    Thankfully, with the polls the way they are now the Coalition would be unlikely to get control of the Senate, so that would limit the damage. And it wouldn’t take them long to realise that you can’t just massage the message when you’re actually running things.

    Oh, and if the Coalition can’t get control of the Senate, that’ll give you something to be miserable about, so you’re sorted.

  158. Carey Moore

    Patrick, considering your history of snarky contrarianism, I suspect no weekend would be good enough for you.

  159. Kinkajou

    It’d be the Melbourne Crickets ground

  160. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    You can walk into any polling station in the land and vote. I vote outside my electorate nearly every time. This is not the Roman census in Bethlehem, you know.

  161. Patrick Bateman

    [Patrick, considering your history of snarky contrarianism, I suspect no weekend would be good enough for you.]
    “Snarky contrarianism” aka “not immediately applauding every decision the Labor Party makes as a tactical masterstroke”.

  162. Aguirre

    guytaur@1154


    This should be fun

    “@abcnews: Oppn Leader Tony Abbott calls press conference to respond to election announcement at 3.40pm AEDT #ausvotes”

    He’ll be positive about it of course. It’s the New Tony after all.

    Wonder if he’ll take any questions, or if he’ll just do his “bad government getting worse” schtick then walk off.

  163. Rex Douglas

    What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering

  164. Greensborough Growler

    Looks like a great market to arbitrage. Polls usually tighten towards election day.

    So you can invest $1000 on Labor now at the $4.15 and $2000 on the Libs when the price tightens to a pre determined price. (e.g. $1.80).

    That way you lock in a minimum profit of $600 if the Libs win or you win $1150 if Labor wins.

  165. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Davidwh,
    As a woman I take great offence at that remark. How dare you suggest a woman changing her look is akin to deception. You Liberals have no shame, just like that cretin who leads you. He, btw, really does change his look to try to deceive people, so I ask you, which look is the Real Tony?

  166. poroti

    Patrick Bateman

    In the “Slaying of the Rat” election I was interstate and cast a vote without problems at a local polling station. It was easy peasy .So being interstate is no excuse.

  167. ajm

    Abbott press conference sunnary: Election Now!

    Now you won’t have to watch it.

  168. ajm

    summary

  169. Just Me

    1145
    bemused
    [But, like most Australian PMs, she is no great orator.]
    My understanding is that part of the reason she speaks like that is for the benefit of the hearing impaired, especially lip readers.

    I heard a clearly written and clearly delivered speech, of considerable content and moment.

    Not quite sure what you heard.

  170. ajm

    Can’t believe it. CanDo didn’t want to talk about election date – only wants to talk to PM about flood relief. A crack in the LNP endless politicking wall!

  171. Greensborough Growler

    Just Me,

    Oh Bemused got his memorial Kevin Rudd earwax stuffed to the gunnels of his ears.

  172. Greensborough Growler

    ajm,

    A bit like Chris Chritie of New Jersey just prior to the election.

  173. Son of foro

    [Wonder if he’ll take any questions, or if he’ll just do his “bad government getting worse” schtick then walk off.]

    I’ll bet you London to a brick he’ll say WTTE: ‘I’m glad the Prime Minister has finally taken my advice to call an election.’

    Then he’ll crack himself up and walk off.

  174. Space Kidette

    Davidwh,

    There is only one JG and we are lucky to have her as our PM!

  175. davidwh

    No offence was meant Puff and I think I will leave you all for your day of joy and catch up again later. Perhaps you will be less touchy when things settle down.

    Having said that I have read many much, much worse comments and insults of Liberal politicians in the past two years without taking offence. It can be very one-sided here at times what comments people decide to get outraged about.

  176. guytaur

    FFS

    Scott Bevan just asked a leadership question of Bruce Hawker. Of course Hawker put him in his place

  177. guytaur

    now this tweet

    “@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

  178. guytaur

    now this tweet

    “@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

  179. zoidlord

    @dividwh/1198

    If you been watching these past couple of years the parliament wasn’t like it use to be especially the lack on bipartisan support.

  180. ajm

    If you were a state premier, would you really want an Abbott victory. Since he’s going to have great difficulty finding “savings” it’s a fair bit that one of the places he’ll be looking at very hard is payments to the states. They will be screwed and their own re-election made more difficult. Expect lots of faint praise from the LNP state governments from here on in – maintain the facade but hope like hell Abbott gets done over.

  181. bomberrose

    Which part of the country will he do his presser in?

  182. muttleymcgee

    [I’m not complaining for my own benefit, …..]

    No, just your usual whinge

  183. bemused

    guytaur@1200


    now this tweet

    “@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

    And about time some morons on PB caught on to that and stopped ranting about “Ruddstoration”. Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year. You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.

  184. ajm

    Rex Douglas
    [What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering]
    I suppose it’s a bit like when you stand in the dock and the judge pronounces sentence. He can see his fate, he knows the date, and he’s having trouble coming to terms with it. Goodbye Andrew

  185. This little black duck

    All these people, including Bruce Hawker, should be sodomised with Nate Silver’s book (thanks, Poss)!

  186. Lynchpin

    My guess is the MSM will write this up for a while as longest election campaign, public sick of politics etc etc; can’t come soon enough.

    After that initial thoughtless reaction, the focus will change to policy.

    I think it is on balance a good move, despite the likely cynicism. People will want to know what they are voting for. It will be more difficult for the Libs to trot out the usual line about “We will deliver our fully costed policies in good time before the election.”

    I think it will have the possibility of clearing away the fog that Abbott and Credlin have built.

    It will certainly put the focus on Abbott’s speech tomorrow.

    It has the added bonus of tending to lock the Libs into Abbott. A two edged sword that, about which I am ambivalent. One the one hand, it is frightening to think of Abbott PM. But on the other, he remains a strong plus for Labor.

  187. Toorak Toff

    zoidlord (1169):

    Your political compass is somewhat astray jdging by your assessment of me.

    Puff, the Magic Dragon (1183):

    Well you can vote in any polling booth in your state or territory, but not quite in any polling booth in the land. If you’re interstate, there are some booths available for interstate voters but they’re not always that handy. Best to do a prepoll vote in your own state or a postal vote.

  188. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Toorak toff,
    thanks for that, i have not voted interstate before. It would behove the AEC to set up a booth that does offer it close to the footy grounds.

  189. Just Me

    1157
    poroti
    [Tone’s Mini just got run over by a Mack.]
    he he

  190. Just Me

    1173
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    [well done PMJG. Love the glasses too.]
    As a middle-aged hetero male, I’d say it was a good look. 🙂

    1174
    davidwh
    [Is that the “Real Julia” look SK?]
    Damn sight better a view than on offer by the increasingly ‘Real Tones’.

  191. Just Me

    1187
    Greensborough Growler
    [Looks like a great market to arbitrage.]

    I just knew a PBer would be watching for that point in the market. 🙂

  192. Gorgeous Dunny

    You girls shouldn’t be too tough on DavidWH. He’s a Lib and all that, but not entirely one-eyed. I thought he’d been sharper than Mod Lib on guessing how things might pan out.

    Yesterday I think he said wtte that Gillard had made a lot of mistakes in 2010-2011, but has not repeated them, and seems unlikely to in the coming year.

    I might not agree about all of those ‘mistakes’, but that’s not a bad assessment on where things are now:not nearly as bad as the Ruddsters and Mod Lib and the like would suggest.

    Politically, the hardest decisions have been made and bedded down. In addition, there’s some very positive things falling into place. It’s mostly good news from here on. There will still be media nitpicking like Peris or Tim, but basically they’re just media charades and unlikely to affect voters.

    Economically, we’re still the envy of the world on all the key indicators.

  193. Just Me

    [Economically, we’re still the envy of the world on all the key indicators.]

    Curse Teh Evul Carbon Tax.

  194. lizzie

    Have I missed Abbott’s presser?
    I dozed off during Hawker’s chat and woke to the harsh shrieking of Chrissie Pyne’s distortions of the truth.

    How do their minds work? “The PM refused to give details”. No she bloody didn’t.

  195. Fran Barlow

    Jon Stewart is nearly always good, but this is hilarious:

    Glenn Beck conservatives discover the darker side of ‘freedom’

    As it turns out, while freedom is a lovely slogan, living Glenn Beck’s fantasy is far better. 😉

  196. Martin Smengle

    Coorey is reporting that Chris Evans has resigned.