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Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

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  • 1
    Rossmore
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    I hardly think Fingergate is going to swing votes, settle down people, let the media have their five minutes of hyperventilating – it was bound to get a run.

    Ashbygate though still has plenty of grunt in the tank. A few people commented that Pyne wasn’t on the PR for Abbott’s mini launch …. does Abbott know something we don’t (yet)?

  • 2
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    What an endorsement!

    The inventor of the world wide web, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, says the National Broadband Network is a “brilliant foundation” for Australia, but now work has to be done to make sure that we make the most of it.

    “The fact that you have a piece of fibre optic cable coming out of the wall is only a start,” he says. Berners-Lee is making his first visit to Australia in 15 years.

    Berners-Lee spoke in Sydney at the launch of the CSIRO’s $40 million Digital Productivity and Services Flagship research initiative, which is focused on helping the services sector get the full value from the NBN.

    http://www.brw.com.au/p/tech-gadgets/nbn_brilliant_foundation_says_berners_LWyBHFJtdUoOi2M2QLpDZN

  • 3
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Is Abbott risking making his family fair game with this sort of stuff ?

    “If the Gillard Government was a better manager of money, it wouldn’t have had to do this,” he said.
    “As far as the Coalition is concerned … by all means minimise the bureaucracy but maximise frontline patient services.”
    Mr Abbott then asked his young daughter to address the media. Appearing a bit nervous, Ms Abbott said she and her sisters loved supporting their father and especially enjoyed visiting Melbourne.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/daughter-frances-helps-in-federal-opposition-leader-tony-abbotts-pre-election-campaign/story-fndo4cq1-1226564266010

    —————————————————-

    Yes he is, again we are seeing alot of stupid errors from abbott

    from claiming the libs dont lie

    grog monster

    Australia day speech

    you wonder has been told he will not be the leader of the liberals come the election

  • 4
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    PM being interviewed on Fox Sports about the PMXI game currently underway.

    Brendon Julian very respectful and warm towards her. Unlike Paul Kelly or Chris Uhlmann!

  • 5
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    The highly scientific online poll in the SMH has the question “Do you think the joke made by Tim Mathieson about prostate cancer and small female Asian doctors was in bad taste?”
    The three options after 22,000 votes are neck and neck.

    Yes, it was offensive and the issue is too important to make light of 35%

    No, political correctness has gone much too far 34%

    The joke was a bit unfortunate but it's helped to bring attention to an important issue 31%

    R http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/and-the-finger-goes-up-as-blokey-tim-bowls-julia-a-googly-20130129-2dhww.html#ixzz2JKikkLnO

  • 6
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    Just repeating from previous thread that the JWS was commissioned by a group with very strong Liberal Party links and should be treated with lots of caution on that basis and others.

  • 7
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Bonham

    Noted. :)

  • 8
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    The SMH “poll” wording re Matheson is silly as these things always are. If someone thinks the joke was not in bad taste but doesn’t think political correctness has gone too far in general, how are they supposed to vote?

  • 9
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    I see Tim has made a fool of himself but being a fool isn’t a crime.

    Most comedians and most people in general have at some point made comments that could be considered crass but that is human nature.

    One of the best comedy shows ever Blackadder is a good example of great comedy that in many cases was crass.

    I am actually more offended by the silly tweets from Laming and Gibbons

  • 10
    Stephen T
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Julia Gillard still in political death zone, the JWS poll is a shocker. If Newspoll comes out with a similar result I sense the vultures will be circiling Gillard’s carcass in the next 6-8 weeks. The Gillard-Swan team is fast becoming unelectable.

  • 11
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    stupid polls. don’t they know how wrong they are? are they deaf or what? if they asked me, i’d tell em who’s winning, or who ort-a be. stupid polls. can they not count or what? what idiots did they ask fer them to get such daft answers? if this is the best they can do, why do they get out of bed? they should get other jobs – as parking meters or somethin’ socially useful. eejits.

  • 12
    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    poroti@5


    The highly scientific online poll in the SMH has the question “Do you think the joke made by Tim Mathieson about prostate cancer and small female Asian doctors was in bad taste?”
    The three options after 22,000 votes are neck and neck.


    Yes, it was offensive and the issue is too important to make light of 35%

    No, political correctness has gone much too far 34%

    The joke was a bit unfortunate but it’s helped to bring attention to an important issue 31%


    R http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/and-the-finger-goes-up-as-blokey-tim-bowls-julia-a-googly-20130129-2dhww.html#ixzz2JKikkLnO

    Polls like this are always useful – they give an indication of the size of the Coalition’s base – people who would support them no matter what stupid stunt they perpetrate. Looks like it’s sitting on about 35%.

  • 13
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    Kevin @ 6

    do you have a link on JWS Research board members

  • 14
    DisplayName
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T @ 10

    Julia Gillard still in political death zone, the JWS poll is a shocker. If Newspoll comes out with a similar result I sense the vultures will be circiling Gillard’s carcass in the next 6-8 weeks. The Gillard-Swan team is fast becoming unelectable.

    De. Ja. Vu.

  • 15
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    They have hit the ground running….with lots of MSM love and support.
    Time for an authoritative splat from the gummint

  • 16
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T

    The coalition is gone under Abbott

    no matter how news ltd propaganda plays it

  • 17
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    Brendon Julian very respectful and warm towards her. Unlike Paul Kelly or Chris Uhlmann!

    Well he is a kiwi . They’re rather more relaxed about having women PM’s :)

  • 18
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    The SMH “poll” wording re Matheson is silly as these things always are. If someone thinks the joke was not in bad taste but doesn’t think political correctness has gone too far in general, how are they supposed to vote?

    IT”S A BLOODY WEB POLL!

    THEY ARE COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS!

    YOU ARE ON A POLLING BLOG! STOP EMBARRASSING US!

  • 19
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think this poll changes anything, all it says is that at this stage Tone is ahead in about 85 to 90 seats but this has been known for months.

    Gillard will lead the ALP to the next poll, I say that for her performance over the past 12 months has improved enough to justify her remaining leader until election day.

    Lets remember one thing at the start of 2007 some people predicted the ALP would win Kooyong.

  • 20
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Kikanjou

    I reckon the govt has employed sun Tzu’s art of war

  • 21
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Tim’s joke was in poor taste but hardly worth much drama.I think we have much more real issues to deal with.

  • 22
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Which Senators voted against Nova Peris’ nomination?

  • 23
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    Lets remember one thing at the start of 2007 some people predicted the ALP would win Kooyong.

    Well, Labor did win that election!

  • 24
    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Stephen T@10


    Julia Gillard still in political death zone, the JWS poll is a shocker. If Newspoll comes out with a similar result I sense the vultures will be circiling Gillard’s carcass in the next 6-8 weeks. The Gillard-Swan team is fast becoming unelectable.

    I’m just trying to remember where I’ve heard talk like that before…. oh that’s right, in September 2010. And October 2010, and November, December, all through the first half of 2011, all through the second half of 2011, the start of 2012, the middle of 2012, late 2012, and after the last Essential poll.

    Speaking of which, when did Essential suddenly become the most credible pollster around? Wouldn’t be about the time it started showing 2PPs more friendly to the Coalition than everyone else, would it?

  • 25
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Basically I think the polls are steady as she goes and it has been that way since November. If it stays that way until September people should start to worry about TAPM. Plenty can happen between now and then.

  • 26
    Ratsars
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    BH – last thread

    Ratsars – hop over to this link and leave your post re the dentist. Bernard Keane had his knickers in a knot about Tim this morning as did the woman who wrote this article.

    Posted some comments there but it has gone into moderation.

    Have the feeling that the Author will not like my comments. However, she need to grow up and stop writing like she was a teenager.

  • 27
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    poroti:

    I didn’t know that.

  • 28
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    From the previous thread:

    2000
    MsAdventure

    Thank you kindly.

    A ‘Like’ button would be a welcome addition.

  • 29
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    ShowsON

    I have heard a couple of names bandied about. Not sure if accurate

  • 30
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    Why are Epstein, Costello and Gazzard polling marginal seats? More interesting why publicise it?

  • 31
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    Hi ru!

  • 32
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    Welcome back Rua.

  • 33
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    2
    sprocket_

    What an endorsement!

    The inventor of the world wide web, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, says the National Broadband Network is a “brilliant foundation” for Australia, but now work has to be done to make sure that we make the most of it.

    “The fact that you have a piece of fibre optic cable coming out of the wall is only a start,” he says.

    This is what Labor has to sell about the NBN, that it is waaaaaaay more than just faster delivery of online videos. It is one of the great revolutions in the way we live our lives, but the full benefits do not start appearing until the vast majority of the population are connected.

  • 34
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    If Newspoll comes out with a similar result I sense the vultures will be circiling Gillard’s carcass in the next 6-8 weeks. The Gillard-Swan team is fast becoming unelectable.

    Some people never give up.

    The polls will hit a bit of a trough in the next month or so before coming back up for Labor, higher than before, in April-May.

    The whole poll process seem to me to have been hesitant, infected with buyer’s remorse and laced with stubbornness.

    Gillard’s strategy of going full term is the only one that has a chance of working, not swapping leaders back again in some kind of game of political chairs.

    So many wish for an election now, just like jockies leading at the five furlong mark or footy players winning with 20 minutes to go wish the ref or the stewards would call full time immediately they get in front.

    It doesn’t work that way. It’s a war of attrition between a government that’s has survived one of the most critically tenuous holds on power in history, and a public that wants to sulk about stuff that happened so long ago it’s practically ancient history.

    Barracking against the government is an opposition that seems to believe Australia has to be destroyed in order to save it.

    We are facing a national crisis of self-confidence. A giant, Australia-wide dummy spit is in progress, where we should be pinching ourselves, amazed that we’ve got it so good here.

    Kevin Rudd isn’t the answer. In fact he’s the problem, and revels in being so. Abbott isn’tthe answer, either. He’s a maniac who’s been promoted against all the odds, even the ones he gave himself.

    Slow and steady is the way to run a country. Step by step progress is the jewell encrusted key, not a cheap necklace around our necks made of gotchas.

  • 35
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    ru:

    More interesting why publicise it?

    Designed to give the perception of momentum to Abbott’s mini campaign.

  • 36
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    Politics is still in boring season. Off to play more Borderlands 2. :)

  • 37
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    ShowsON

    I have heard a couple of names bandied about. Not sure if accurate

    Kim Carr was one, which is amazing, because he was one of Gillard’s strongest backers!

  • 38
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    ruawake

    I was kind of hoping you had some exciting gossip

  • 39
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    Showson

    Surely you jest. kim Carr has not been one of Gilard’s supporters for ages

  • 40
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Meguire Bob @ 13

    do you have a link on JWS Research board members

    Here you go

    http://www.ecgadvisory.com.au/team/

  • 41
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    Sorry MB – ECG commissioned JWS Research that is!

  • 42
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    Julia Gillard still in political death zone,

    Certainly still in the PM’s seat. :)

  • 43
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Rudd isn’t the answer. In fact he’s the problem, and revels in being so. Abbott isn’tthe answer, either. He’s a maniac who’s been promoted against all the odds, even the ones he gave himself.

    OH FFS!

    How on earth is Rudd the problem? Gillard has been PM longer than Rudd was PM.

    When Gillard loses she will have to accept all the blame for the loss.

    Well OK, Wayne Swan deserves some credit for the loss too, because Wayne Swan doesn’t have any Labor values.

  • 44
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    http://jwsresearch.com/the-team/

  • 45
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    Laocoon

    thank you

  • 46
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    rua

    More interesting why publicise it?

    Publicised by Stutchbury because that is the business model he is using: manufacturing news. That is to say, having “exclusives” so people have a reason to buy the AFR

  • 47
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    Swan is a problem due to being a poor performing treasurer.

    Andrew Leigh should be promoted

  • 48
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    “@sortius: It’s funny, I’ve been blocked by a whole heap of @abcnews journalist for question their bias toward Abbott. Guilty conscience is obvious.”

  • 49
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    Showson

    Surely you jest. kim Carr has not been one of Gilard’s supporters for ages

    Yes, he is a true patriot.

  • 50
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Laocoon

    If Murdoch is Sauron of Mordor then Stutchbury is Saruman

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