tip off

Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

1221
  • 51
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Swan is a problem due to being a poor performing treasurer.

    Andrew Leigh should be promoted

    I don’t think his actual work is bad, he is just bad at communicating his and the government’s achievements.

  • 52
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Which Senators voted against Nova Peris’ nomination?

    I didn’t know Senators were voting. But if Nova got 19 out of 21 votes she’s made a good start. Her presser was terrific – she stood her ground well.

    Ratsars – thanks, a silly story like that deserves responses.

  • 53
    Burgey
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    This is hilarious.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BBvz_eLCIAAH9V9.png:large

  • 54
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    I didn’t know Senators were voting. But if Nova got 19 out of 21 votes she’s made a good start. Her presser was terrific – she stood her ground well.

    No Senators don’t vote, but there are Senators who are also on the national executive.

  • 55
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    ShownsOn That is the point I am referring too

  • 56
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Trish Crossin presser now.

    Seems she is not going quietly.

  • 57
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    Swan is a problem due to being a poor performing treasurer.

    Bollocks.

  • 58
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/no-slices-too-deep-or-too-shallow-for-abbotts-razor-20130128-2dgzo.html#ixzz2JKXMJgv1

    Razor Gang? I thought that was under Howard?

  • 59
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    Journos trying to stir up leadershit, but Crossin isn’t having a bar of it.

  • 60
    Leroy
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/former-federal-attorney-general-robert-mcclelland-set-to-bail-out-of-2013-election/story-e6freuy9-1226564347800

    Former federal Attorney-General Robert McClelland set to bail out of 2013 election
    Andrew Clennell
    The Daily Telegraph
    January 29, 2013 3:19PM

    FORMER Attorney-General Robert McClelland is expected to announce his retirement at the next election this afternoon.

    Labor sources have told The Daily Telegraph Mr McClelland is set to announce his retirement at 4pm.

    Former Labor Premier Morris Iemma has been spoken about as a future candidate for Mr McClelland’s seat of Barton but has always said he would never challenge Mr McClelland.

    More to come...

  • 61
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    zoid

    Media pretending Hockey and Robb are Ministers

  • 62
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    She says she acknowledges the executive’s decision.

  • 63
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Former Labor Premier Morris Iemma has been spoken about as a future candidate for Mr McClelland’s seat of Barton but has always said he would never challenge Mr McClelland.

    What about Warren Mundine?

    He deserves a safe seat.

  • 64
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    She is calling for the PM to compensate stolen generation members.

  • 65
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Well he did reportable over estimate support for the first mining tax and he did bang on about a surplus in 2012/13 for years.

    I’m just not convinced about Swan. I think if there is anyone that deserves phase that would be Albo for he has been very active performer in Infrastructure.

  • 66
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    Well for any that have doubted it McLelland has signalled the death of Ruddstoration. Looking at you Peter Hartcher.

  • 67
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    Crossin says she has been preselected 5 times “by a rank and file ballot”. Says NT is the only state in which Labor uses that method to preselect Senate candidates.

  • 68
    Leroy
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    confessions – sounds like there have been some discussions behind the scene between Trish and the national party.

  • 69
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    @wendy_harmer: Nothing like news of an impending asteroid the size of a football field to put a prostate gag into perspective. Tks http://t.co/mWKkWpP2

  • 70
    stanny
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Bonham are you suggestion that somehow the JWS automated phone poll was tampered with by Board members from an advisory group with strong Liberal Party connections?
    Essential is a group with very strong Labor connections I don’t see any problem with their poll. If you look carefully at Essentials respondents on the various issues canvassed each week such a trust in media approval of a carbon tax the respondents seem to be pretty progressive overall in their views yet this poll is often dismissed by Poll Bludgers as being pro coalition. I suspect thta this poll is a bit more accurate than Newspolls whose commissioners are definitely pro LNP.

  • 71
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Politics is still in boring season. Off to play more Borderlands 2.

    You were Ok with the “big Blow” no damage?

  • 72
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

    I’m just not convinced about Swan. I think if there is anyone that deserves phase that would be Albo for he has been very active performer in Infrastructure.

    Of course! Swan hasn’t communicated the government’s achievements well, but the factional hackery made him Deputy P.M.!

    Albanese would’ve been a much better Deputy P.M.

  • 73
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    Crossin needs to remember that she is an employee of the ALP and just because she did something in the past does not mean it never changes.

    The PM has a leader as the right to mold her team to how she sees fit.

  • 74
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    And it ends.

    Leroy:

    Yes, towards the end she sounded much more accepting of the decision. She said she intended to work tirelessly for the people of NT to ensure that Abbott is not elected PM.

  • 75
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    @mashable: 8 Reasons to Deactivate Your Facebook Account http://t.co/5enSiQwS

  • 76
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    @Mark_Butler_MP: Grants of up to $20,000 are now available to deliver informal and accredited courses for Seniors. More details here: http://t.co/e7HMb4kU

  • 77
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    guytaur – exactly. McLelland was hanging on hoping against hope. I win the prize! Said in November 2011 that there would be NO change to Rudd as leader (real inside info on that).

    Is Iemma well thought of in that area?

  • 78
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    Well for any that have doubted it McLelland has signalled the death of Ruddstoration.

    One can only hope.

  • 79
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    BH

    Yes. It is thought that Iemma fought against the special interests and is still regarded well for work on health

  • 80
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    mexicanbeemer@73


    Crossin needs to remember that she is an employee of the ALP and just because she did something in the past does not mean it never changes.

    The PM has a leader as the right to mold her team to how she sees fit.

    Completely wrong!
    Crossin is an elected Senator. She is not employed by the ALP, but she does owe the fact she was elected to her ALP endorsement.

    ALP Rules do not provide that the PM can choose who she wants in Parliament. The rules do provide processes for pre-selecting candidates.

  • 81
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    BH

    My opinion only from anecdotal hearing

  • 82
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    @mjrowland68: Caught up with US political forecaster extraordinaire Nate Silver. Interview on #planetamerica Fri. 7.30pm #abcnews24 http://t.co/aDbwO2dZ

  • 83
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    McClelland is 3 years too late with his announcement.

  • 84
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    But will Rudd believe it’s the end or will he go on forever wishing and hoping and praying?

  • 85
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    bemused Thanks and yes you are totally correct, the point I was making was that Gillard as leader should be able to put forward her ideal candidate which of course then should be voted on following the normal process.

  • 86
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    57
    Lynchpin

    "Swan is a problem due to being a poor performing treasurer."

    Bollocks.

    Double bollocks.

    Yes, he is not the best media performer around. But is that really how we are going to judge our treasurer’s competence and achievement? Having probably the best economy in the world, when the rest of the world is doing it pretty tough, is not good enough for us?

    If you are really concerned the get out there and help him sell that record. Bookmark the Bisons and show them off to anybody who needs to see them.

  • 87
    Aguirre
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    If the Coalition can’t find some economic doom and gloom theme to riff off, they’re goners. Batts/BER and Carbon Tax handed votes to them on a plate, but neither have any currency any more. The polls will narrow, and incumbency will get the ALP over the line.

    However, if they can find something, they are home. It only takes one bad news story, as long as it’s broad enough.

    They’re definitely struggling at the moment. Doesn’t matter what the polls are saying – especially the JWS one, which seems to be delivering good news to them to order. They’re drifting about looking for something to latch on to. Positive doesn’t do it for them – they’re tried it before anyway, which similar non-results. They’ll take anything going; pre-selection story, ‘gaffe’ by partner, warmed-over Larry Pickering shaggy dog tale, they’re not fussy. As long as they can criticise.

    But they need something bigger than those dish-scrapings.

  • 88
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    Barton: 6.9% margin

  • 89
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    What a surprise.

    “@CUhlmann: Robert McClelland will announce his announce his retirement at 4pm. Supporters say “no point staying if Labor is about to go over a cliff””

    I wonder now if this guy is being paid by the LNP. His take on things certainly seems like he might as well be to me.

  • 90
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    One of the urologists who taught me was the late Douggie Keller, the only man to represent both Australia and Scotland in Rugby Union. As a urologist he was a useful second rower and was built like an international forward should be. His patients (behind his back ) called him sausage fingers.
    http://www.rugby.com.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=iTE1_alto5k%3D&tabid=1731

  • 91
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

    I wonder now if this guy is being paid by the LNP. His take on things certainly seems like he might as well be to me.

    You Gillardistas are incredible.

    Robert McClelland’s dad was a LABOR President of the Senate, and McClelland is a former Labor cabinet minister, but apparently that isn’t enough for you to avoid questioning his loyalties!

  • 92
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    Showson

    I was talking about toolmans reporting

  • 93
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    FORMER Attorney-General Robert McClelland is expected to announce his retirement

    Should have done it long ago.

    The ‘Log’ is a full on idiot.

  • 94
    Julia
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Well, while we are all doing wish-full thinking…The only one who may be in a ‘political death zone’ is Abbott. Hockey is looking fit and he is way more appealing as a moderate, with the added bonus that he doesn’t have the Ashby stink or a blood oath to get rid of the carbon tax. Beware the Ides of March, that’ll be about 6 months out from the election. Perfect timing for installing a new leader.

  • 95
    Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    OC

    I just checked that link on Keller and saw this on Hammon:

    Hammon played for Victoria and captained the State from 1936 to 1938 at a time when Victoria was strong enough to have substantial representation in the National side and to defeat New South Wales, which it did in 1938 by 23 to 14

    So possibly there is some hope that the Melbourne Rebels could lead Victoria out of barbarism to a return to civilisation… ;-)

  • 96
    Sohar
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    Imagine Essential save a lot of money by recycling the same results every week with a different date.

  • 97
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    @GMegalogenis: “Let’s all leave Tim Mathieson alone.” Dennis says @TonyAbbottMHR went too far in calling on the 1st bloke to apologise http://t.co/nMj2BXWO

  • 98
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    Yes but the greatest Victorian Rah Rah was Weary Dunlop and that is getting up to 80 years ago.

  • 99
    mari
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    [Oakeshott Country
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 3:51 pm | PERMALINK
    One of the urologists who taught me was the late Douggie Keller, the only man to represent both Australia and Scotland in Rugby Union. As a urologist he was a useful second rower and was built like an international forward should be. His patients (behind his back ) called him sausage fingers.
    http://www.rugby.com.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=iTE1_alto5k%3D&tabid=1731

    Definitely glad I wasn’t born a man, my OH described it to me, when he went on my insistence, wonder why he didn’t take much notice of my advice from then on. ;)

  • 100
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    mexicanbeemer@85


    bemused Thanks and yes you are totally correct, the point I was making was that Gillard as leader should be able to put forward her ideal candidate which of course then should be voted on following the normal process.

    MB, pre-selection will always be contentions.

    The broader interests of the party need to be considered, but, if local members get no say, then what is the point of their membership?

    zoomster has written some useful stuff on this although I think she tends to see it through rose coloured glasses a bit too much. Her views are well worth reading.

    Basically, it is a balance between giving members a say and selecting candidates that will best serve the interests of the Parliamentary Labor Party and hence all members.

    Anyone with a perfect solution has yet to put it forward. ;)

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...