tip off

Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

1221
  • 101
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott and the Coalition criticised Labor’s stimulus and said that we should follow New Zeland’s response to the GFC. how did that go for NZ doing it Tory Style ? Oh and I liked this quote from their parliament today
    “It’s no use flapping your arms around like a penguin, Mr Prime Minister.”

    Key, Shearer trade blows in first Parlimentary sitting.

    IMF data showed the New Zealand economy had performed worse than the majority of countries in the OECD since 2009.

    "The data shows New Zealand scored 18th out of the 34 OECD countries for GDP growth, 22nd for unemployment, 30th for the current account deficit, 28th for national savings growth, and 23rd for government debt."

    Mr Peters said young people were being forced overseas and being paid low wages.

    "Unemployment is reaching crisis levels and little is being done."

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10862157

  • 102
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    Who thinks Gillard will nominate Michael Clarke for McClelland’s seat?

    He would really improve the quality of Labor’s batting order.

  • 103
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    Robert McLelland to go. Opens up his seat for Paul Howes.

    The only positive thing McLelland’s done for the Party in twelve months.

  • 104
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    “@MrDenmore: So an unelected man who makes a prostate joke sparks MSM outrage, but a senator who hides links to the gun and tobacco lobbies is not news?”

  • 105
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@89


    What a surprise.

    “@CUhlmann: Robert McClelland will announce his announce his retirement at 4pm. Supporters say “no point staying if Labor is about to go over a cliff””

    I wonder now if this guy is being paid by the LNP. His take on things certainly seems like he might as well be to me.

    I think many members of Caucus would see him as just being a realist. Although I doubt any will say so.

  • 106
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott and the Coalition criticised Labor’s stimulus and said that we should follow New Zeland’s response to the GFC. how did that go for NZ doing it Tory Style ?

    Yes Abbott’s claim that Australia should’ve followed New Zealand’s fiscal policies during the GFC should be used against him during the election campaign.

    New Zealand recorded negative growth for 5 successive quarters, i.e. it went into a major recession, but Abbott didn’t have a clue about that.

  • 107
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Opens up his seat for Paul Howes.

    *Groans*

    Seriously?

  • 108
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Robert McClelland will announce his announce his retirement at 4pm. Supporters say “no point staying if Labor is about to go over a cliff

    …when the tough get going.

    Disappointed in McLelland.

  • 109
    Just Me
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    80
    bemused

    ALP Rules do not provide that the PM can choose who she wants in Parliament. The rules do provide processes for pre-selecting candidates.

    FFS, the Libs indulge in exactly the same Captain’s pick and stuff-the-plebs’-choice tactic.

    Both sides have done it since dot.

    Go both of them for doing it, or neither.

    And frankly, stuff the rules, they didn’t work so well in getting el primo candidates up in the NT for the last umpteen years, let alone indigenous ones.

    One hallmark of a good leader is knowing when and how it is legitimate to over ride the ‘normal’ processes, and so far it looks to me like Gillard called this one correctly.

  • 110
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Wheels within wheels.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/howes_denies_he_ll_take_run_at_barton_j6ZhElmrhHoa4ODUPDvlbO

  • 111
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Julia@94


    Well, while we are all doing wish-full thinking…The only one who may be in a ‘political death zone’ is Abbott. Hockey is looking fit and he is way more appealing as a moderate, with the added bonus that he doesn’t have the Ashby stink or a blood oath to get rid of the carbon tax. Beware the Ides of March, that’ll be about 6 months out from the election. Perfect timing for installing a new leader.

    There is nothing moderate about Hockey. Not even his stupidity is moderate.

  • 112
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    I was talking about Uhlmans reporting of this. Not McLlelland.
    Those views are well known. No need to go over again.
    Sorry to all that I did not make this more clear but to be honest I did not think I had to.

  • 113
    john wright
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    Crossin needs to remember that she is an employee of the ALP

    I was always under the impression that the taxpayer payed politician wages, not the parties.

  • 114
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    Robert McClelland’s dad was a LABOR President of the Senate, and McClelland is a former Labor cabinet minister, but apparently that isn’t enough for you to avoid questioning his loyalties!

    Actions speak louder then words.

  • 115
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Oakeshott Country@90


    One of the urologists who taught me was the late Douggie Keller, the only man to represent both Australia and Scotland in Rugby Union. As a urologist he was a useful second rower and was built like an international forward should be. His patients (behind his back ) called him sausage fingers.
    http://www.rugby.com.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=iTE1_alto5k%3D&tabid=1731

    Did he give on field prostate examinations like one Rugby League player was famous for?

  • 116
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Just Me @ 109:

    Well said! The plaintive wailing from some is just ridiculous.

  • 117
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    guytaur:

    Most of us knew what you were referrring to.

  • 118
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    The only positive thing McLelland’s done for the Party in twelve months.

    Much, much longer. If he ever did anything.

  • 119
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    confessions@107



    Opens up his seat for Paul Howes.


    *Groans*

    Seriously?

    I share your reaction. :mad:

  • 120
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    Not bad for an inept, clumsy loser, eh, Richo?

    McClelland AND Crossin both go on the same day.

    I’d hate to see Gillard when she was on top of her game.

  • 121
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    Yes John the taxpayer pays the politicians but a political party does have the right to endorse or dis-endorse MP’s

  • 122
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    McClelland’s statement.
    Interesting for whom he did not discuss it with, and who he dosen’t thank

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redneckninja/status/296121525407449088/photo/1

  • 123
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Just Me@109


    80
    bemused
    And frankly, stuff the rules, they didn’t work so well in getting el primo candidates up in the NT for the last umpteen years, let alone indigenous ones.

    Yeah sure, lets extend that throughout society and see how we go.

    Do you think the organisational principle of the ALP should be Führerprinzip or will you settle for anarchy?

  • 124
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Mr Denmmore :mad:

    “@MrDenmore: @mumbletwits I beg to differ. But then I guess the standard of what is news at your cesspit of a media company is a bit different.”

  • 125
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    I picture Howes representing a Illawarra or Hunter based seat.

  • 126
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    BB,

    I didn’t see her lips move and she devoured him whole.

    I wonder if Kim Carr will feel his retirment coming along very shortly?

  • 127
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    Why are we groaning at Paul Howes? He’s an intelligent, articulate and competent union leader. I’m sure he’ll go into politics eventually, but not just yet I think. I’d like to see him become ACTU President first, and restore its status after a decade of invisible left-wing presidents.

  • 128
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    McClelland is going? Good riddance. A non-performer who is way too conservative. (And no, I don’t give a shit whom he supports re: Gillard v. Rudd)

  • 129
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    How old is PJK again?

  • 130
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    Howes will crash and burn.

  • 131
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    Psephos,

    If he’s good enough, he’s old enough for Federal Parliament.

  • 132
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Peter Reith either hasn’t been paying attention to preselection sagas in his own party, or is suffering from convenient amnesia.
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4488118.html

    Presumably he voiced the same strongly-worded complaints against John Howard and then Tony Abbott for twice “trampling over the rights of party members” when they each overturned the will of preselectors in Tangney by keeping the utterly useless do-nothing Dennis Jensen in the seat.

    Presumably he was aghast at how the will of preselectors in Cook were ignored because they’d overwhelmingly preselected a candidate who wasn’t from an ‘acceptable’ cultural background.

    And Reith will have to remind me of his mottled outrage at Tony Abbott declaring that in Robertson and Dobell there will be no preselections, and candidates were parachuted in against the will of local rank and file members.

    Honestly, where are govt MPs in calling out this hypocrisy by Reith, and earlier by Wyatt Roy and Griggs by pointing to how preselections take place in the LNP?!

  • 133
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Still young at 52 – just sayin

    Morris Iemma (pron.: /ˈjɛmə/; born 21 July 1961), is a former Australian politician and 40th Premier of New South Wales, succeeding Bob Carr after he resigned on 3 August 2005. Iemma led the Australian Labor Party to victory in the 2007 election before resigning as Premier on 5 September 2008, and as a Member of Parliament on 19 September 2008.[1

    ]

  • 134
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    You mean
    John Hopoate
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/gallery-e6freraf-1225917144910?page=16

    Doug on the other hand was a gentleman.

  • 135
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    Wonder if Abbott will chuck a fit that McClelland should have done this in February , Because it cost abbott the chance of an election

  • 136
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    Why are we groaning at Paul Howes? He’s an intelligent, articulate and competent union leader. I’m sure he’ll go into politics eventually, but not just yet I think. I’d like to see him become ACTU President first, and restore its status after a decade of invisible left-wing presidents.

    If Paul Howes was in parliament he would have to stop attacking Labor’s policies! Like when he attacked the carbon tax at the precise time the Government was taking the most heat over the policy!

  • 137
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Iemma deserves another go after he was done other by the Beagle Boys ( sorry I meant Obeid and Tripodi)

  • 138
    meher baba
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Psephos@127: Howes has promise in the long term, but up to now he has been far more of a liability than an asset.

    His “look at me, look at me” carry on after Rudd’s demise in 2010 – an event in which I believe he played only a minor role – helped to build up the public perception of Gillard being the puppet of “faceless men”.

    Since then, he has carried on with the task of trying to build up his public image as a swaggering Labor powerbroker: a sort of junior Richo. He also periodically throws in a bit of Lindsay Tanner-style “Labor has lost its way” bleating.

    He’s still very green, and what’s green can grow. He’s articulate and reasonably intelligent, so he will probably blossom as he is given more power and responsibility. But I reckon it’s a while away.

  • 139
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    “@billshortenmp: Do you have something to say about your workplace? I’ll be blogging live tomorrow @theheraldsun. Join in the conversation from 1pm”

  • 140
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    ShownOn Paul Howes was doing his job as a Union leader, I have no problem with him representing their interest.

  • 141
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Why are we groaning at Paul Howes?

    Based entirely of my perception of him the past few years. He reminds me too much of Kevin Rudd: a look at me media tart who copes when things are going well, but collapses in a heap at the first sign of trouble.

  • 142
    The Finnigans
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    McClelland obviously saw the light that #Ruddstoration aint going to happen and Diog will lost his $500 :evil:

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    “@mumbletwits: Morris Iemma to be preselected in Barton? Can this be true?”

  • 144
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    In surprise breaking news:

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/labor-powerbrokers-to-settle-nt-ticket/story-e6frfku9-1226563937768?from=public_rss&utm_source=buffer&buffer_share=e0acc

  • 145
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    ShownOn Paul Howes was doing his job as a Union leader, I have no problem with him representing their interest.

    LOL! Yeah right mate, attacking a Labor government really helps the interests of union members!

    If that’s the case, then that must mean you think Coalition governments are better for union members!

  • 146
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    At least Howes would then be able to manage the party from within the elected team.

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    “@Pollytics: The ALP is short of cash, needs new blood & Barton is open. Obviously the solution is a reality TV show – So You Think You Can Branch Stack”

  • 148
    meher baba
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Re the suggestion that Andrew Leigh take over from Wayne Swan: Leigh is even more of a smartypants than Paul Howes. He’s achieved a lot in his relatively short life, but he needs to write the words “try to be humble occasionally” on the palm of his hand and look at them frequently each day.

    From my observations, his broad political perspective seems to be a long, long way to the left of the butter knife. Treasurers need to convince the financial and business sectors that they are pro-market and fiscally conservative. Leigh is a long way away from that IMO.

  • 149
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    [Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate."

    Does this mean that the denialists have given up denying that global warming is happening at all? Have they now retreated to the line that, yes, it is happening, but not because of anything humans are doing?

  • 150
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    Does this mean that the denialists have given up denying that global warming is happening at all? Have they now retreated to the line that, yes, it is happening, but not because of anything humans are doing?

    Yes, that shifted happened a few years ago.

    Having said that if you visit denialist blogs they often vacillate between “climate change isn’t happening” and “climate change is happening but isn’t caused by human activities”.

    Consistency isn’t exactly their strong point.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...