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NT By-Elections

Jan 30, 2013

Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

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The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3768 comments

3,768 thoughts on “Election day: September 14

  1. shellbell

    2nd week of footy finals but Swans, from minor premier position, will have dispatched lowly opponents in week one and have the weekend off.

    ie I wont be distracted

  2. guytaur

    shellbell

    😆

    Go Swannies!!

  3. Patrick Bateman

    People are missing my point re footy.

    This is a place for discussing polls, not just a place for barracking for the government (right?).

    I know it is POSSIBLE to vote when interstate etc, but what does history show about whether people actually do? And what about the annoyance of being distracted from stuff like major sporting events?

  4. ajm

    Rex Douglas on previous thread

    [What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering]

    I suppose it’s a bit like when you stand in the dock and the judge pronounces sentence. He can see his fate, he knows the date, and he’s having trouble coming to terms with it. Goodbye Andrew

  5. bemused

    Repost from previous thread:

    [guytaur@1200

    now this tweet

    “@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”]

    And about time some morons on PB caught on to that and stopped ranting about “Ruddstoration”. Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year. You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.

  6. Lynchpin

    My guess is the MSM will write this up for a while as longest election campaign, public sick of politics etc etc; can’t come soon enough.

    After that initial thoughtless reaction, the focus will change to policy.

    I think it is on balance a good move, despite the likely cynicism. People will want to know what they are voting for. It will be more difficult for the Libs to trot out the usual line about “We will deliver our fully costed policies in good time before the election.”

    I think it will have the possibility of clearing away the fog that Abbott and Credlin have built.

    It will certainly put the focus on Abbott’s speech tomorrow.

    It has the added bonus of tending to lock the Libs into Abbott. A two edged sword that, about which I am ambivalent. One the one hand, it is frightening to think of Abbott PM. But on the other, he remains a strong plus for Labor.

  7. Smaug

    Apparently the date chosen is an affront to the Jewish faith as it’s Yom Kippur (according to that great Jewish scholar Mal Turnbull) and Yom Kippur is the holiest day of the year.
    Of course the concept of secular democracy doesn’t seem to exist for these clowns.

  8. Laocoon

    Puff
    [This is not the Roman census in Bethlehem]
    😀

  9. This little black duck

    When’s Tone’s mini election-announcement in reply? 5 mins late?

  10. Lynchpin

    Bemused,

    [You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.]

    I agree with your sentiment.

  11. bomberrose

    Hopefully within 6 months of each other, we will have no more uncle Col and no more Tony.

  12. poroti

    [Bernard Keane
    @BernardKeanePM has in a single blow just removed about half the Press Gallery column inches of the next five months.]

  13. Greensborough Growler

    The Ruddrats are begging for mercy, I see.

  14. Smaug

    The Libs have only a few weeks to replace Abbott, I’m sure Hockey was hoping to shred a few more kilo’s with the whole lap band thing first. If Abbott is still in the chair by Mid March he’ll be there in September.

  15. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    What an imbecile -> “@GregHuntMP: Finally voters will have their say on the Carbon Tax and electricity prices on September 14 #auspol”

  16. Sohar

    Yes, Julia and, a couple of weeks later, the Swans!

  17. guytaur

    TLBD

    Didn’t Howard have a reputation for late pressers? Abbott copying?

    Or as I prefer panic and chaos in LNP land

  18. Player One

    [ You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred. ]

    We will … if you promise to tone down the ritual Gillard “concern”.

  19. guytaur

    Howard Slogan “who do you trust”

    signalling return to Howard days

  20. zoomster

    Patrick Bateman

    yes, every election – even state ones, where it’s more difficult – people who know they won’t be there on election day organise themselves to vote.

    With a compulsory voting system, it has to be easy for everyone to.

    An increasing number of Australians are voting at pre polls, which open about two weeks before the actual election. They can vote by post, they can vote at any AEC office, they can vote provisional (if the booth they’re at doesn’t have them on the roll). Most major booths allow them to vote, full stop, regardless of where they live in Australia.

    Now, that all happens in a normal election, when people have had three weeks’ warning.

    I would suggest that knowing nine months in advance makes it even easier than it would be normally.

  21. confessions

    A bold move by the PM.

  22. guytaur

    “@mephiztopheleze: @OakeyMP @TonyWindsorMP lulz, 450 followers for Zero Tweets! Twitter Level = God!”

  23. Laocoon

    Who do you trust? might have worked with Howard.

    Abbott?

  24. This little black duck

    [“who do you trust”]
    Grammar fail many times over, Tone.

  25. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics

    Newman said all this – minus boats. That seemed to work out well

  26. Laocoon

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    No Questions!!!!!!!!

    ROFL

  27. guytaur

    Abbott not taking questions!!!!!

    Run rabbit run

  28. jeffemu

    Tones done a runner. Where did he go ???

  29. Player One

    Abbott: “I’m determined to give it to the Australian People. I know the Australian people will be ready for it”

    I wish people would stop talking about prostrate exams!

  30. Greensborough Growler

    Abbott is apparently promising better sex for everyone.

  31. This little black duck

    Who was that unmasked man?

  32. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Mr Abbott promising more cranes and bulldozers….

    More Roads and No NBN.

    That worked well in QLD.

  33. Lynchpin

    What a coward. Just walks off and leaves questions standing.

  34. Laocoon

    [Tones done a runner. Where did he go ???]
    Looked like he was ready to throw up

  35. This little black duck

    Dress rehearsal for tomorrow. Tone talks for 50 minutes and takes no questions.

  36. Boerwar

    WTF. Gutless Grogmonster does it again. Is he rushing off to the pub for a shandy?

  37. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    All I can say is, if Australian’s vote this monkey in, the LOLs will be endless
    Expand
    1m Shane Wright Shane Wright ‏@swrightwestoz

    You are joking … TA walks away from presser, no questions, while copying Howard’s 2004 campaign launch.
    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas

  38. meher baba

    Well, what a totally unexpected call by JG.

    This is entirely outside the scope of the current playbook as understood by the parliament, press gallery, the public service & etc. The idea has always been that, until an election is announced we all live in a sort of suspended animation in which we act as if there will never actually be another election ever again, but at the same time continually speculating that it will be called at any minute.

    It seems logical to speculate that the lines of thinking behind it include
    1) it puts Rudd and his supporters on the back foot as it is now almost impossible for a challenge to be mounted, and any further leaking/undermining from that quarter (which has definitely been continuing by the way) can be represented by Gillard as a threat to Labor being returned to office;
    2) it increases the pressure on Abbott to announce some of his policies; and
    3) it establishes a clear timeframe within the Government/public service for planning policy development, announcements, etc.

    The big risk around it is that, if the opinion polls now dip away from Labor for a while, September 14 will start to loom as the date on which it is widely understood that the Government will be executed, a bit like how March 2011 functioned for the Keneally Government. This sense of certainty will encourage the public, the media and interest groups to give up on the Gillard Government and stop listening to it, turning all their attention towards Abbott.

    Of course, if the polls remain close, then the turning of a lot of attention onto Abbott – placing him under excruciating pressure – will be a good thing for Labor. So it’s a finely-balanced situation.

    But a clutch of 54-46 results (or worse) in Newspoll, Nielsen and Galaxy in the next couple of months could be just about terminal for JG.

  39. guytaur

    The Libs want this fool to campaign for them?

    Panic and chaos it must be

  40. meher baba

    bemused@5 said:

    “Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year.”

    Only because he hasn’t had the numbers, Bemused. If you think that he gave up on the idea after March last year, you should seriously consider changing your nom de guerre from “bemused” to “deluded”.

  41. Boerwar

    Hmmm… if the Hawks are going to be crushing the Swannies on 14 Sept I will be conflicted vis-a-vis handing out HTVCs.

  42. This little black duck

    [Well, what a totally unexpected call gutlesss performance by JG :monkey:.]

  43. confessions

    Abort not taking questions? Unsurprisement.

  44. Rex Douglas

    Abbott you vacuous fraud

  45. guytaur

    “@geeksrulz: Wonder how Abbott would handle unforeseen events as PM? We just witnessed it. Just WOW. #pissweak. #auspol”

  46. Burgey

    That’s a joke. The first question he cops at the NPC tomorrow should be “Why do you not stand and take questions from journalists? Why do you always curtail questions and run away?”

    Front and centre.

  47. Psephos

    [You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.]

    And you can remove your seditious Rudd avatar. Until you do, I don’t believe your protestations of innocense on this subject.

  48. Sohar

    Let’s face it, Tony Abbott is George Bush with a lobotomy.

  49. poroti

    Abbott has long been noted for his “bravery”

    [In Honi Soit Abbott was accused of “cowardly, anonymously” standing in a group making comments at passing women who supported abortion, “not willing to interject separately – together shouting”. ]
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/father-of-the-year-how-abbotts-abortion-stance-rendered-ridicule-20120910-25o0g.html?skin=text-only

  50. Inner Westie

    Well this is awkward timing for Abbott. What will become of his mini campaign? Will it expand and pop in September, or contract and shrivel in February?

  51. zoidlord

    Thanks for the Morgan link:

    In late January support for the L-NP is 50.5% (down 1.5% since January 5/6 & 12/13, 2013) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends January 19/20 & 26/27, 2013.

  52. bemused

    meher baba@41


    bemused@5 said:

    “Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year.”

    Only because he hasn’t had the numbers, Bemused. If you think that he gave up on the idea after March last year, you should seriously consider changing your nom de guerre from “bemused” to “deluded”.

    No, I am sure he would still like to lead, but I think he can count and is just leaving it in the hands of Caucus to make a move if things go bad.

    As you pointed out, with a run of bad polls could be terminal for Gillard and then it is all opened up.

  53. guytaur

    “@GeorgeBludger: .@lyndalcurtis ASK PYNE ABOUT ASHBY – GO ON, ASK HIM. ONE QUESTION, JUST ONE…”

  54. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics

    Not sure if you want to make the election about bulldozers when there’s a bloke called BobKat hanging around

  55. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Pyne is on ABC24 telling us nothing and frothing at the mouth over nothing. Complete and utter dickhead. Wasting our time ABC

  56. Greensborough Growler

    I’ve got inside info on the Liberal theme song for this election.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVdoZNxtL8k

  57. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Pyne: we’re allowed not to release policies & costings cause we are the Opp. The Gov isn’t allowed to do that #fuckwit

  58. smssiva

    William Take a bow. All you have to do now is tell us the election results.

  59. Aguirre

    I missed Abbott’s presser. Did he bring his daughter?

    I take it he did the “Who can you trust?” line. I remember Howard dropping that one on us very clearly. Trust was a big issue for him at the time in the wake of the Iraq war/WMDs, Children Overboard and I think the brewing Wheat scandal. He took the ‘trust’ issue and narrowed it down to the economy – “Who do you trust to manage the economy.” The minute I heard it I knew Latham was a goner. Economy was a massive strength for Howard and he could control the narrative after 8 years in the job.

    Abbott’s got no credibility on trust. He’s got nothing to back it up, and he walks out on press conferences without taking questions. It’s a stupid line to take. I would have thought he was hoping the electorate would take a punt on him even though he was evasive and shifty. Putting that issue up front is crazy.

  60. Laocoon

    Morgan must be ecstatic about timing!

  61. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    Alright I wasn’t convinced about this move but am beginning to warm to this – JG will always win at the long game and this is the longest game ever. Maximum opportunity for TA to FU. Given he runs away at every presser he can’t keep it up for 9 months.

    2004 Howard slogan – just shows how bereft of ideas is the LNP, anyhow that election worked well enough for the Government at the time, so happy for TA to take the opposition’s role.

  62. guytaur

    “@bsymonsb: Abbott: “Who do you trust to secure our borders?” Debate on immigration about to get uglier. If that’s possible. #auspol”

  63. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    @Aguirre

    Don’t forget the low interest rates promise

  64. guytaur

    “@GCobber99: Lyndal is holding Pyne to account well done lyndal Pyne the issue with brough is dead according to Pyne”

  65. Toorak Toff

    Let’s hope this is not another bold move – a few days after the Nova Peris decision – that Julia lives to regret.

    As for killing off leadership speculation in either the ALP or the Liberal Party, let it be remembered that Bob Hawke successfully challenged Bill Hayden as Malcolm Fraser ws on his way to the G-G to seek a dissoultion.

  66. Meguire Bob

    Coalition loses by default , they do not have the leader

    the only way the coalition can stop a big majority defeat is a new leader

  67. poroti

    Remember this the next time you hear an LNP type whining about the cost of living and how the nasty Labor government is to blame.

    [
    The politicians keep saying working families are doing it tough, that we’re all under terrible cost-of-living pressures, but the Australian Bureau of Statistics crunched the numbers and found employees overall saw the average cost of the things they buy rise by just 1.1 per cent.

    While the consumer price index showed a rise of 2.2 per cent in 2012, a separate living cost index for employees rose by only half that. Yes, utilities shot up, but interest rates fell – and interest rates aren’t included in the CPI.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/barely-any-inflation–if-youre-an-employee-20130130-2dkba.html#ixzz2JQtZfbYJ

  68. This little black duck

    Well, if Hope, Rewards and Opportunity doesn’t work for Tony then he can always pray for some Faith, Hope and Charity. He just might need it.

  69. Bushfire Bill

    “Who do you trust?”

    From the certified least trusted politician in Australia?

    Cranes on city skylines again? Oh please…

    And then he pisses off?

  70. zoidlord

    @Toorak/67

    Because you can’t talk anything about your party be it positive or negative, you attack Labor and those support it.

  71. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    @Meguire Bob

    “the only way the coalition can stop a big majority defeat is a new leader”

    I can see that happening the coalition have a great track record replacing failing leaders heading for certain defeat.

  72. Rex Douglas

    Joe Hockey on Sky – “give our country back to the Australian people”

    Joe’s joined the tea party

  73. Toorak Toff

    Is there a Newspoll coming up?

  74. Kinkajou

    ROY BABY!!!! indeed

    thats what I’m talkin about!!!

    Authoritative splat 2

  75. Lynchpin

    Meher Baba. Yes, good analysis. In other words, a momentum towards the inevitable. I suspect though that this is different to NSW.

    I suspect what we will see is an itial drift in the polls to the Coalition. But slowly they will come back as the thin veneer of bullshit is peeled away. But they will only come back if the Govt plays smart and hard.

  76. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    What a pork chop 😉 ==>“@2FBS: Oh dear @TurnbullMalcolm http://www.news.com.au/national/its-kosher-jewish-leaders-defend-yom-kippur-election-date/story-fncynjr2-1226565208415 … #shmendrik”

  77. Laocoon

    Re: Barton
    [Support is growing in NSW Labor circles for former premier Morris Iemma to stand for the federal seat of Barton, which will be vacated at the next election due to the retirement of Robert McClelland.

    Some in the NSW Labor branch have reservations about another state Labor figure joining the Gillard government, but federal MPs on Wednesday expressed their support for such a move.

    Ed Husic, federal member for the western Sydney seat of Chifley, tweeted: “And if Morris Iemma puts his hand up for preselection he would be a terrific addition to Fed Labor team.”

    Schools Minister and member for the Sydney electorate of Kingsford-Smith, Peter Garrett, endorsed Mr Iemma as a “high-quality candidate’’, and former NSW premier and current Foreign Minister Bob Carr also called on Mr Iemma to make the move.

    People close to Mr Iemma say he is unlikely to run but has not entirely ruled it out, as he is also balancing family concerns and a recent bout of ill health.

    The Right faction controls the seat and the pre-selection will be chosen by a ballot of the rank-and-file. Multiple sources say if Mr Iemma runs, he will win.]
    http://afr.com/p/national/labor_mps_back_iemma_for_mcclelland_zlBWoWUepe7rLtdg7P94YL

  78. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [Howard Slogan “who do you trust”]
    I thought they went to good schools and universties?

    It’s ‘WHOM do you trust?’, dickheads.

  79. briefly

    Now everything the LOTO does will be refracted through the lens of a real election. He will be seen for the empty, racket-making pot that he is.

  80. zoidlord

    Don’t forget people, if your in Bundaberg, you can apply for flood assistance.

    Human Services ‏@HumanServicesAU

    #Bundaberg Local Gov Area residents affected by #qldfloods can now apply for Aus. Government Disaster Recovery Payments http://humanservices.gov.au/disaster

  81. zoomster

    Toorak Toff

    do you have any basis at all to say that Gillard is regretting the Nova Peris decision?

  82. Toorak Toff

    Zoomster, I sure she’s not regretting anything, but it’s unfortunate that it’s backfired somewhat in the Territoy

  83. Lynchpin

    “itial” = initial

  84. Aguirre

    Ok, I’ve seen Abbott’s presser now. I’ve already forgotten which things we were meant to trust who on. So they’re going to have to work on that line. It sounded suspiciously like he tacked a couple of opening lines on a speech he’s already hawking about for the Mini-Campaign.

    No mention of the election timing. No mention of a timetable for unrolling campaign promises. No idea really of how they think the campaign will run. Nothing he couldn’t have said this morning before Gillard’s announcement. And, quiet obviously, no idea what he’s supposed to say in response to the announcement, seeing as he walked away in the face of a barrage of questions.

    They’ll be pulling an all-nighter at Liberal HQ, trying to coordinate a strategy for the next couple of days.

  85. zoidlord

    @Toorak/84

    There is no evidence to support that at all….

    Coming from someone who loves to spoil for a fight you are devious.

  86. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    ASX up another 0.2% today. The stealth rally rolls on. Even 0.2% is worth just under $3 billion for the mkt cap of the ASX

  87. guytaur

    “@sortius: IT’S KOSHER: Jewish leaders defend Yom Kippur election date http://t.co/CMoJPXFq @TurnbullMalcolm is caught out… again #auspol”

  88. zoomster

    TT

    again, how do you know that? Has there been polling done? Are you a Northern Territorian?

  89. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    TT
    What makes you think that? Because the biggest windbags are blowing the loudest trumpets?

    Let us see how this pans out electorally. The quiet ones may disagree with you.

  90. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius

    IT’S KOSHER: Jewish leaders defend Yom Kippur election date http://www.news.com.au/national/its-kosher-jewish-leaders-defend-yom-kippur-election-date/story-fncynjr2-1226565208415?sv=d18d48899c2d9e5a369decf584397909#.UQiuyfCalCc.twitter … @TurnbullMalcolm is caught out… again #auspol

  91. Greensborough Growler

    One thing for sure, Gillard blew momentum out of the Libs faux election practice campaign. Clearly Abbott, Pyne and Hockey thought they’d get easy coverage with a few platitudes. Now they’ve been forced back to real politics and they certainly seem unprepared.

  92. bemused

    Psephos@48



    You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.


    And you can remove your seditious Rudd avatar. Until you do, I don’t believe your protestations of innocense on this subject.

    What an idiotic comment.
    What do you find objectionable in the photo of a former Prime Minister and current MHR?
    Yes, I still think he would do a better job. So what?

  93. Kinkajou

    …No THIS IS AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN….apols to Hoges

  94. zoidlord

    Can you please stop with RUDD ALL OF YOU.

    FFS.

  95. Aguirre

    Lynchpin@77

    I suspect what we will see is an itial drift in the polls to the Coalition. But slowly they will come back as the thin veneer of bullshit is peeled away. But they will only come back if the Govt plays smart and hard.

    I see no reason why there should be an initial drift to the Coalition. Nothing about this gives them any momentum. And they’re giving every impression of being caught on the hop.

    Life is just one long campaign these days. I’d be surprised if people notice any difference after the first day.

  96. zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius

    “Members of the [Jewish] community will simply pre or postal vote.” ruhroh, LNP’s dog whistle on the election date is dead #auspol #ausvotes

  97. poroti

    If Abbott goes on about trust this video of Red Kerry and Abbott should be on high rotation.

    [Tony Abbott and the Gospel Truth

    Red Kerry : What you haven’t explained is how you can make one promise in one month and then completely change it the next

    Abbott: Well, well ack ack ack ack ack (there may have been more ack’s 🙂 ) again Kerry um …]

    and so it goes until he makes his “gospel truth” remarks.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eai3eKPEV5I

    [
    Read my lying lips: Abbott admits you can’t believe everything he says]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/read-my-lying-lips-abbott-admits-you-cant-believe-everything-he-says-20100517-v9ge.html#ixzz2JQvzUPYr

  98. Boerwar

    Meanwhile, Ms Clinton is playing coy on her next POTUS run and a Ms Clinton election committee has been formed.

  99. Diogenes

    Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.

  100. zoidlord

    UTC ‏@UtcWp

    @sebe @TonyWindsorMP @OakeyMP The FTTH #NBN was Nationals Plan, but abandoned it when lost election
    Retweeted by Robert Oakeshott MP

  101. zoidlord

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    So the Greens now “calling on PM to have fixed three year terms”. Ok, all good, but focus on your party, not the ALP

  102. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Does anyone have a link to the Abbott presser…er…runner please? I can only find the transcript, which Ia ms sure only tells half the story.

  103. sprocket_

    Looks like Gary Morgan has got his wacky spreadsheet formulae fixed.

    on last elections preferences;

    ALP 50.5
    LNP 49.5

    a tick the other way on respndent allocated.

    Others on 13 looking fat, with LNP primamry down to 39, a whopping 3.5 pts below 2010 election.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4859/

  104. This little black duck

    The Americans are very good at committees. There are thousands of camels wandering around there thinking they are horses.

  105. guytaur

    @abc730: With the Sept 14 election date set, @CUhlmann interviews @SwannyDPM & we hear fm Geoff Gallop & Amanda Vanstone, on #abc730 tonight. #auspol

  106. Diogenes

    Is there a reason a Jew can’t vote on Yom Kippur?

    Christians could still vote of there was an election on Easter Sunday, although it would be a bit annoying.

  107. Toorak Toff

    It’s interesting that Barton is seen as a safe seat even in hard times for Labor in NSW.

    Back in 1951, Labor deputy leader ‘Doc’ Evatt held on to Barton by just 243 votes against war heroine Nancy Wake. Evatt took over the Labor leadership when Ben Chifley died a couple of months later.

  108. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics

    Elections are destabilising! Will some one rid us of these patronaged plonkers http://bit.ly/128uaUd

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    The media are “analysing” the election date and announcement. The MSM is really very brilliant in this country

  109. Patrick Bateman

    [Now, that all happens in a normal election, when people have had three weeks’ warning.

    I would suggest that knowing nine months in advance makes it even easier than it would be normally.]
    So you’re suggesting that major sporting/cultural events don’t have an impact?

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.

  110. ajm

    Diocenes
    [Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.]
    Haven’t done the figures in detail but the $AU is now worth much more and the $US much less, so I suspect that this explains most or all of the difference.

  111. Diogenes

    Patrick

    There would only be one AFL match on that Saturday rather than the usual 8. This will actually minimize any disruption to the footy public.

  112. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Tonight on #TheDrum: What do you think of Julia #Gillard’s decision to announce an election date early? #ausvotes #auspol”

  113. Psephos

    [As for killing off leadership speculation in either the ALP or the Liberal Party, let it be remembered that Bob Hawke successfully challenged Bill Hayden as Malcolm Fraser ws on his way to the G-G to seek a dissoultion.]

    That’s true, but in 1983 Hawke was the most popular man in Australia and had been for a decade. He was an absolute rolled-gold cert to beat Fraser, which was why Fraser was rushing to an early election while Hayden was still leader. Making Hawke leader was a no-brainer and the only reason it hadn’t been done earlier was that Caucus members resented his popularity. Bob Hawkes don’t come along very often, and there certainly isn’t one to be had in either party at present. Dumping either Gillard or Abbott this close to the election would be an act of desperation, not of confidence.

  114. victoria

    Patrick bateman

    You mentioned footy finals earlier. As per your eg say West Coast play Adelaide. Game will take place in one of those cities. Crowd would total at best 40,000. How many of those would be from interstate? Care to hazard a guess

  115. This little black duck

    [The media are “analysing” the election date and announcement.]
    Navel fluff is currently the first and only object of the media’s microscope.

  116. Leroy

    Shellbell – thanks for pointing this out

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4859/
    [L-NP 50.5% WITH SMALL LEAD OVER ALP 49.5%
    AS PRIME MINISTER GILLARD CALLS ELECTION FOR SEPTEMBER

    Finding No. 4859 – This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 19/20 & 26/27, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,630 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.: January 30, 2013]

    If you scroll right down you can find the “last election TPP, which is…

    ALP 50.5 – LNP 49.5

    For a rough as guts ready reckoner, add 2 points to the LNP to account for ALP bias in the method, and its…

    ALP 48.5 – LNP 51.5

    However, I don’t really consider face to face reliable. Still, that’s around the bludgertrack average.

  117. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    @Patrick Bateman

    [So you’re suggesting that major sporting/cultural events don’t have an impact?

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.]

    One thing for this election, it will test that conventional wisdom about footy finals, if JG wins it will seriously challenge the assumption about clashes, and if it is a rainy day even better.

    Just too bad it wasn’t held during the school holidays as well.

  118. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Duckie,
    Very good. 😆

  119. Greensborough Growler

    Craig Thomson speaks on Bison Pod. Interview with PB’s Gus!

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/exclusive-craig-thomson-opens-up-to-gus/

  120. Diogenes

    Actually there would probably normally be four on a Saturday.

    The finals match on the second Saturday is usually at night so there really is minimal clash with the election.

  121. ajm

    Patrick Bateman
    [I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.]
    I suspect that, like Yom Kippur, this actually directly affects very few people. The number who actually travel interstate for anything other than a grand final would be very small in any individual electorate. I think it’s a bit of an urban myth. Things like school holidays would actually be a fair bit more significant.

  122. Patrick Bateman

    [Crowd would total at best 40,000. How many of those would be from interstate? Care to hazard a guess]

    Actually AFL semi finals get anywhere from 50-90k crowds. With, say, West Coast I’d guess something like a crowd of 60k with, say, 10k travelling some distance to get there. So maybe not huge numbers after all.

  123. Inner Westie

    A slogan for Labor: Lock up your walls!

  124. Diogenes

    About 10 K travel interstate to finals. The match could easily be between two Vic teams anyway.

  125. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    [ Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs]

    Would also depend on which index we are comparing the All Ords is a bit more comprehensive in terms of industry mix than the DJ

  126. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Now the election has been called , the Rudd name should not be said anymore. The king is dead , Long live the Queen !!!

  127. Psephos

    [Is there a reason a Jew can’t vote on Yom Kippur? Christians could still vote of there was an election on Easter Sunday, although it would be a bit annoying.]

    There’s no Christian equivalent. Jewish religious holidays are like the Sabbath – no work of any kind can be performed, which includes voting. Yom Kippur, the day of atonement, is the most important religious holiday of the year for observant Jews. They will spent most of the day in the synagogue atoning for their sins. Even relatively secular Jews observe Yom Kippur.

  128. briefly

    [105
    sprocket_

    Looks like Gary Morgan has got his wacky spreadsheet formulae fixed.

    on last elections preferences;

    ALP 50.5
    LNP 49.5

    a tick the other way on respndent allocated.

    Others on 13 looking fat, with LNP primamry down to 39, a whopping 3.5 pts below 2010 election.]

    Ah, social affiliation, the voter-motor…..Fewer and fewer of the polled want to say (even in an undertone) that they will vote for the LOTO.

    The shame, the humiliation and the ridicule that will fall upon the shoulders of those who support that spittle-pot, the LOTO. I venture to say that 39% is actually less than the LNP “rusted-on”.

    Voters want to get as far away from the LOTO as possible for reasons of social hygiene.

  129. Diogenes

    GG

    Does Gus use the phrase “I’m your biggest fan. “

  130. victoria

    Patrick Bateman

    West Coast and Adelaide do not have a ground that holds more than 40,000 people for starters.

  131. Greensborough Growler

    Diogs,

    Listen and find out!

  132. Aguirre

    Patrick Bateman@111



    Now, that all happens in a normal election, when people have had three weeks’ warning.

    I would suggest that knowing nine months in advance makes it even easier than it would be normally.


    So you’re suggesting that major sporting/cultural events don’t have an impact?

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.

    Ok, if you’re serious, let’s deal with this one at a time:

    1. Sporting Events: Let’s not get too excited about semi-finals. In the AFL at least, these matches take place between teams who don’t even make the Grand Final. They’re played at night, and the home team gets the lions share of the attendance figures. One of them is played on the Friday night, which leaves fans of those teams a full day to vote. The other is played on the Saturday night, after booths close. So – if the match involves an interstate team – maybe 5-6K people are affected, tops.

    2. Cultural Events: The Jewish community has given the election date the thumbs-up. End of that story.

    An election is an election. It’s a massive event. If the timing of it has to be restricted because of 10-15 thousand potential footy/rugby followers (depending on who is playing on the night), this nation is in a parlous state.

  133. Kevin Bonham

    The MF2F could be reasonably read as 51.5 or 52 for Coalition accounting for house effect. The benchmarking on respondent-allocated has been more like 2.5 than 2 points lately but over the full term the benchmarking on last-election has been a bit less than 1 point.

    Anyway taken with the Essential which was still at 54 meaning 53 this week’s regular-series polls contribute nothing to the trend and we are still at about 52.5. (*and resists the temptation to add “and probably will be for life.”*)

  134. Meguire Bob

    I wonder how mod lib and rummel will handle this September 14th data

  135. Carey Moore

    Patrick Bateman, I’d probably take your point seriously, if you didn’t automatically leap to the “EVERYBODY WHO DISAGREES WITH ME IS A GILLARD CHEERLEADER!!1!” straw man.

  136. Patrick Bateman

    A good habit for some of you here would be to go through the mental exercise of imagining the post you are reading being put to you in a genuine and non-partisan way by someone you respect before responding.

  137. Carey Moore

    I don’t think the election announcement is a “master stroke” or a poll booster, nor do I think it’s terrible. It’s just a date. It’s good in the sense that we have certainty and that people have plenty of time to get their affairs in order (that includes organising some alternative form of voting if they are out of town that weekend.)

    I know the usual hacks are trying to build this up as an attempt to score politically, so when the polls don’t show a bump, they can call this a blunder, but it’s not. It’s just an attempt to give clarity on the election timing (that is, yes, motivated by Labor wanting as many voters properly registered as possible, especially younger voters.)

  138. Patrick Bateman

    [EVERYBODY WHO DISAGREES WITH ME IS A GILLARD CHEERLEADER!!1!]
    If you’re referring to my earlier comment, that was a response to being called a “contrarian”, which in turn was in the context of me asking a question in the middle of a circle-jerk about what a masterstroke the timing of the election is.

    FWIW I think the timing isn’t bad, but it does rob the government of flexibility. I am curious to know what the plan is with the apparent bad news for whinging self-reporting battlers (middle class welfare cuts) and the fixed election date. Presumably to get the cuts out the way ASAP and move on – but if they kick in from 1 July then they’ll just be biting in September.

  139. poroti

    Another toll of the bell for the OM

    [
    More media jobs go as Nine wields axe

    Hundreds of jobs could go at Nine Entertainment after the media group flagged job cuts due to the continuing downturn in the advertising market.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/more-media-jobs-go-as-nine-wields-axe-20130130-2dkmy.html#ixzz2JR6N0w5t

  140. Patrick Bateman

    [West Coast and Adelaide do not have a ground that holds more than 40,000 people for starters.]
    Actually Footy Park in Adelaide holds 50k, Subiaco holds 44k. Not that it matters.

  141. Just Me

    32
    This little black duck
    [Who was that unmasked man?]

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  142. Aguirre

    Patrick Bateman@138


    A good habit for some of you here would be to go through the mental exercise of imagining the post you are reading being put to you in a genuine and non-partisan way by someone you respect before responding.

    A good way to get your heart broken in my experience.

    With a lot of posts on this site, trying to read them as if they’re genuine could short-circuit your brain.

  143. dave

    Diogenes@101


    Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.

    Because of QE1, QE2, QE3 and Operation Twist. (Google them)

    Also the depreciation of the US Dollar AND many of the major US Companies have large chunks of their income outside the US and in countries doing OK.

    The US is using the classic way to escape their debts, ie depreciation of the currency and inflation.

    Also in due course the US Government Bonds the FED has ‘bought’ with newly invented money will just be setoff against the actual Government debt, so that much of the US Debt will just be cancelled and go away.

    Its just a matter of time, then more inflation and a still lower currency which is what they want – then you will see the famous ‘J’ Curve in action. They are already saying they are going ‘to destroy the US Dollar’.

    Wall Street will say however that its all because the masters of the universe are back in action again.

    But our market is now basically going vertical – known as a blowoff top. It has to consolidate – go sidewise soon or it will drop.

    Sell in May and go away has worked like a charm in the last couple of years as well….

  144. briefly

    PMJG has now recruited the MSM. whether they like it or not, now they WILL have to press the LOTO for answers; they WILL report his evasions and his double-talking.

    It’s one thing for the LOTO to come ill-prepared to off-season practice bouts. It’s entirely another for him to come untrained and out of uniform to a First Grade Match.

    He will have acid poured on him every day from now until September 14. About time.

  145. Burgey

    Off topic, but what a fantastic coup for Leigh Sales to get that final Town Hall meeting gig with Hillary Clinton. A real feather in her cap.

  146. Carey Moore

    One thing that is very telling about this announcement, I must say, is that it will be a one month election in the middle of football season.

    In other words, it looks like they’re banking on “better the devil you know” voter apathy.

  147. Patrick Bateman

    [they WILL have to press the LOTO for answers; they WILL report his evasions and his double-talking.]
    I have to say, I think this is wishful thinking.

    The meme will be “longest election campaign EVAR, and it’s all Julia’s fault!”

  148. victoria

    CM

    It was in the middle of a football season last time too

  149. Boerwar

    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    ‘Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.’

    1. They have been printing money like billi-o.
    2. The Fed, by way of Bernanke, has indicated that it will keep printing money like billi-o for as long as it takes.
    3. With the effective interest rate at zero, money is free. Why not plonk it in the stock market and see whether you can make a quid on a dead cat bounce?
    4. The alternative places for the money to go are singularly unattractive: housing, industrial development and bonds.

    IMHO, it is not so much irrational exubrance as irrational desperation.

  150. gloryconsequence

    Grattan on The Age website video. Her final thoughts? “Well, I guess we will see what happens with the next round of opinion polls to see what happens”.

    Further evidence that the MSM narrative is 100% poll driven.

    Basically let’s not write about events, and fact, let’s see whether the opinion polls like it, and go from there.

    Absolute hackery.

  151. William Bowe

    I’ve updated BludgerTrack, although with only Essential and Morgan reporting this week it’s pretty thin gruel at the moment.

  152. victoria

    I did not see Abbott’s presser, but this was on twitter from the Geek

    [You could sense the fear in Abbott’s facial expressions. It was palpable. #auspol]

  153. mari

    All well, I am very optimistic, will be back in Australia to vote against my beloved Pruneface Heeeee Heeee :devil:
    And hi to Dr Snuggles

  154. mari

    Dr Fumbles McStupid
    Posted Wednesday, January 3
    Woops sorry Dr

  155. Laocoon

    [Is there a reason a Jew can’t vote on Yom Kippur? Christians could still vote of there was an election on Easter Sunday, although it would be a bit annoying.

    There’s no Christian equivalent.]
    Perhaps Good Friday would be the closer analogy.

  156. Meguire Bob

    yes rummel

    how many of those 227 days will abbott be leader

    labor will be hoping all , then its a default win for the gillard government

  157. Scarpat

    It looks like Mumble was told to write something on today’s election announcement or thought that he had to write something but in the end he wrote nothing but which is more substantive than what other political commentators have been saying…

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/why/

  158. briefly

    [149
    Patrick Bateman

    they WILL have to press the LOTO for answers; they WILL report his evasions and his double-talking.

    I have to say, I think this is wishful thinking.

    The meme will be “longest election campaign EVAR, and it’s all Julia’s fault!”]

    The electorate will not seem half as jaded as the LOTO, who already looks completely shot.

  159. Boerwar

    So, when does the Sitzkrieg finish and the Blitzkrieg really start?

  160. rummel

    [160
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 5:18 pm | PERMALINK
    yes rummel

    how many of those 227 days will abbott be leader

    labor will be hoping all , then its a default win for the gillard government]

    A part of me wants Abbott to win just to see the mess in PB the day after.

  161. zoidlord

    So Essential also doing 50:50 ish?

  162. Meguire Bob

    lol scarpat @ 161

  163. zoidlord

    @rummel/164

    But you will suffer under Abbott Gov (see UK).

  164. Boerwar

    Climate Admiral Abbott and Climate Captain Newman will steady the climate ship. No more record floods. No more record heat waves.

    Can’t wait.