...EMMA ALBERICI: So, Christopher Pyne, we'll just confirm that you're... because you haven't exactly answered the questions around Judge Rares' comments in the Federal Court who criticised Mal Brough as someone who was so keen to advance his own interests in the Liberal Party that he would act with James Ashby in a conspiracy to bring down the Government?

Abbott’s judgement is in question over his support of Brough. He should require Brough to address these matters publicly instead of evading them.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/government-unravelling-like-hitlers-regime-pyne-20130203-2ds7y.html

Something certainly doesn’t stack up. You plan to resign soon, yet become AG? Yeah right.

Actually i think it stacks up pretty well. She had some things to do, did them and is moving on to things that matter, like family. I’m sad that she made that choice, but respect it.

ALP do have an advantage here as they seem to have competent people to move up. As against the wabble opposite who dont even have competent people in place now.

Also, they have a leader who can think on her feet and deal with the unexpected without going into scary shuddering brain-lock.

All Psephs here know that two measures in polls mean squat on polling day:

a) The beauty contest
b) Preferred Prime Minister

All that matters is that magical TPP and marginal seats.

On that basis alone, the ALP is so screwed.

If it comes to someone they don’t like and someone they don’t trust Abbott wins over Gillard every time.

Even the TPP is less important with a hung parliament and so many marginal seats. If the ALP lose by two seats (and that will be an absolute miracle) they might as well lose by 20.

The implosion after the loss is going to decimate a team which was pretty ordinary to start with. The ALP in federal opposition is going to be worse than the Tarago of members currently in Queensland in terms of quality.

Her biggest challenge will be to stop the exodus of those too tired or disenchanted to fight that kind of marathon for no real good.

Roxon saw the writing on the wall. Chris was less of a surprise.

Newspoll was likely to dip this week anyway, only because the last was a little on the generous side. FWIW I’m guessing a 46 or so, lots of pundits saying “We told you so”, followed by a move back up to the mean of about 48.

A few voters out there may change their answers in a survey due to some sort vague notion that they heard someone talking about a crisis, but then a couple of weeks later, nothing will have changed, “crisis” forgotten.

I love your optimism BB, but I really don’t think people change their minds very often unless they perceive some sort of “crisis”. I reckon the ones that think about politics regularly have by now decided. It’s the ones who only think about it in the last month of the campaign who are most likely to change, and I wouldn’t expect them to be thinking or changing much between now and April.

If I was the ALP, and I was offered a polling average of 49 come June, I would happily accept it.

Gorilla, 63% of voters have decided they do not approve of Tony Abbott. Enough of those will carry that disapproval/distrust into the voting booth.