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Federal Election 2013

Feb 2, 2013

Seat of the week: Werriwa

It's a measure of Labor's woes in Sydney that the seat of Gough Whitlam and Mark Latham is routinely being included on lists of the potential casualties.

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Famously held by Gough Whitlam throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1952 to 1978, the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa has been in Labor hands since 1931. However, it is now considered endangered for the first time in living memory after the margin was cut from 15.1% to 6.8% in 2010, followed by the devastating example of the state election the following March. The electorate in its current form covers suburbs clustered around the South Western Freeway and the Campbelltown rail line, from Macquarie Fields south to Ingleburn and Minto and north to Hoxton Park and Liverpool South, together with Liberal-voting semi-rural territory further to the west. The seat has been fundamentally altered a number of times since its creation at federation, at which time it covered Goulburn 200 kilometres to the south-west of Sydney. It was shifted eastwards to the Illawarra in 1934, when it commenced its life as a safe Labor seat, then moved northwards as far as the Sutherland Shire in 1949, and finally adopted its south-western Sydney orientation in 1955, when it covered Cabramatta and Liverpool. In remaining at Sydney’s outer edge since, it has tended to be pushed further south-westerwards over subsequent redistributions.

Labor’s Hubert Lazzarini followed his shifting electorate from 1919 until his death in 1952, except for a term after the 1931 election when it fell to the Country Party. Lazzarini was succeeded by Gough Whitlam, whose tale does not need reiterating here. John Kerin became member in 1978 when Whitlam quit in the wake of the 1977 election disaster, going on to serve a forgettable stint as Treasurer after the failure of Paul Keating’s first leadership challenge in June 1991. Kerin was followed in 1994 by the seat’s second Labor leader, Mark Latham. Although Labor’s hold on the seat was never endangered, Latham went through a wild ride in his time here in more ways than one: the seat swung 9.3% to the Liberals in 1996, 6.5% to Labor in 1998, and 4.8% to the Liberals in 2001. Latham was also disrupted when his strongest party branches were removed from the electorate in the redistribution before the 2001 election. His factional enemies, who were apparently not in short supply, argued he should instead be made to try his luck in marginal Macarthur.

Latham quit politics in January 2005 and was succeeded at a by-election by Chris Hayes, an official of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who easily retained the seat in the absence of a Liberal candidate. Another round of Labor upheaval followed when the redistribution before the 2010 election effectively abolished the safe Labor inner Sydney seat of Reid (which survived in name but was effectively merged with neighbouring Lowe). Labor’s member for Reid was Laurie Ferguson, brother of Martin Ferguson, with whom he formed the base of a Left sub-faction that had counted Julia Gillard among its number. Ferguson was at first determined to be accommodated in Fowler, to be vacated at the election by Julia Irwin, but a deal was in force reserving the seat for the locally dominant Right. He instead settled for Werriwa under a deal Gillard was able to reach against opposition of Anthony Albanese and the Left, in which Hayes would take Fowler instead. That in turn froze out Ed Husic, national president of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, for whom Fowler had been earmarked, but he was accommodated in Chifley following Roger Price’s decision to retire.

The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Kent Johns, the Liberal mayor of Sutherland Shire, who was once a Labor mayor of Rockdale before becoming an independent. Johns reportedly won preselection with backing from factional moderate Scott Morrison. This has generated grumblings from locals aligned with the Right, who complain of having an outsider foisted upon them. Chief among the aggrieved is thwarted preselection hopeful Mark Koosache, a local school librarian and former soldier who has campaigned against cuts to entitlements for defence personnel, who says he is contemplating running as an independent and directing preferences to Labor. There has also been talk that Ferguson might bow out at the election, but he has told the local media his nomination forms have been submitted and he is set on serving another term.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1128 comments

1,128 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Werriwa

  1. Fran Barlow

    Whoa! Frist in a thread

  2. victoria

    davidwh

    We will have to wait and see what comes out if anything. All I know is that Pyne does not like being asked about Ashby. If enough pressure is applied, he is likely to crack me thinks

  3. DisplayName

    A bit too eager there, Fran :P.

  4. Scarpat

    Frist in a thread

    is this part of String theory?

  5. Darren Laver

    Fran Barlow, you deserve that honour for your post of the year re: Kelly & Grattan.

    I do like that my predictive keyboard, which just then threw up the suggested word “unethical” just after I typed Kelly. My tablet keyboard knows me too well!

  6. Gecko

    Davidwh

    [When it come down to the crunch the election will be decided on the economy and perceptions of leadership quality.]

    And policy.

  7. leone

    Boerwar
    From the last thread.
    John Howard had a cabinet reshuffle in January 2007 when Amanda Vanstone was removed from cabinet. She resigned from politics in April 2007 and was appointed Ambassador to Italy in June 2007. So some general tidying up at the beginning of the year in preparation for an election and Ms Vanstone getting a cushy appointment. Sound familiar?

    In the reshuffle –
    Senator Ian Campbell went from Environemt and Heritage to Human Services.
    He resigned from the Senate in March 2007 and Senator Chris Ellison was given the Human Services portfolio

    Joe Hockey moved from Human Services to Employment and Workplace Relations.

    Kevin Andrews moved to Immigration and Citizenship, replacing Amanda Vanstone

    Malcolm Turnbull became minister for the Environment and Water Resources, taking over from Senator Ian Campbell. Turnbull had previously been Parliamentary secretary with special responsibility for water.

  8. Diogenes

    [When it come down to the crunch the election will be decided on the economy and perceptions of leadership quality.
    And policy.]

    Does that apply for Howies four election wins as well?

  9. Darn

    Timing is everything in politics isn’t it? If Rares had delivered his judgement this week instead of just before Christmas the Libs would be up to their neck in horse shit right now. Let’s hope their luck runs out soon.

  10. victoria

    Darn

    Remember Ashby is seeking leave next week to appeal the decision of J Rares.

  11. Scarpat

    Wonder how Pyne feels being left out of real solutions plan by Abbott?

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/Wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/LibsFrontPage.png

    Interesting that the Coalition has promoted Julie Bishop to sit tallest in the photo…

  12. zoidlord

    I don’t think that too bad results for Labor for newspoll.

    It depends on the voters in the states whether or not they will pay attention to political crap or what the government is doing to help people in QLD/NSW RE: Floods etc.

  13. victoria

    Darn

    And another thing Brough is not appealing anything. How can he be? He is not part of Ashby’s proceedings. Brough is subject to a possible investigation by the AFP as requested By Mr Perrett MP

  14. Tricot

    I suppose it bears repeating, but over the last years of the current government, we have had sessions on here where dire predictions of the future abound – based on some current passing matter.

    The media magnifies, amplifies and then junks when the caravan moves on.

    Already the changes to the ministry are dropping down the news order and I suspect by Monday, most of it will have gone.

    Two weeks from now it will be “Who is Nova Peris?”.

    Remember, just before Christmas it was predicted the world would end in the USA by it going over some cliff.

    Who remembers, who cares?

    For a PM supposedly “rocked” and “looking down the barrel” and 20 comments similar ad nauseum, all I can say is JG looked relaxed, in charge – a PM in fact.

    The press rat pack on the other hand, are reduced to infantile questions.

  15. zoidlord

    @Scarpat/13

    Notice Malcolm last at the back of the photo.

  16. Fran Barlow

    DisplayName:

    [A bit too eager there, Fran ]

    Frist in a thread is an old LarvatusProdeo meme. I was doing homage. 😉

    cf:

    [1. frist 21 up, 3 down
    a variation of “first” posted to an online comment section to indicate that you were the first to post. the “i” and “r” often are intentionally transposed to convey the typist’s haste.]

    Urban Dictionary

    I assume this is smilar to how “pwned” got started.

  17. davidwh

    I wasn’t interested in details of any rumors just wondering if he is supposed to have done something that required him to resign.

  18. CTar1

    kezza

    [So, the final OKAY of an article is the responsibility of an EDITOR not a subbie. ]

    I think we’re talking, but actually arguing about nothing.

    Wright the Younger is just claiming someone fiddled with her last draft.

    Who did it? Stuffed if I know. (The last time I saw her she would have been about 4).

  19. Fran Barlow

    Scarpat:

    [is this part of String theory?]

    Nice one! 😉

  20. davidwh

    Gecko policy yes although hip pocket policy is generally dominant in many folks minds.

  21. victoria

    davidwh

    In light of Pyne’s moralising, it would be the decent thing to do.

  22. Darn

    [victoria
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 5:36 pm | Permalink
    Darn

    And another thing Brough is not appealing anything. How can he be? He is not part of Ashby’s proceedings. Brough is subject to a possible investigation by the AFP as requested By Mr Perrett MP]

    Maybe – just maybe – that load of horse shit will still arrive. Fingers crossed.

  23. Scarpat

    Notice Malcolm last at the back of the photo.

    zoidlord,

    It may mean that the Coalition is more worried about the female vote than the moderate Lib vote.

  24. victoria

    Tricot

    But of course on a weekly basis, the polls are affected, and that is what the msm and coalition rely on to bash the govt with

  25. Darren Laver

    Mr Pyne could have sired 20 children – it does not change who he is.

    Interestingly, his liaisons with a certain disgraced Slipper staffer were quickly brushed over by the Gallery.

    How do they keep a straight face when he goes on about his personal fertility in press conferences?

  26. Fran Barlow

    Darren

    [Fran Barlow, you deserve that honour for your post of the year re: Kelly & Grattan.]

    Glad you liked it.

    Re your auto-correct — computer knows best Want to type Kelly? Computer says Nooooo (c) Little Britain

  27. davidwh

    Thanks Victoria I think I have a general idea about the rumour.

  28. kezza2

    [CTar1
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 4:54 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    Subbies are not responsible for a massaged intro, the EDITOR is.

    And? All she is saying, if she is to be believed, is the first bit has been changed.

    Who did it? Her boss or the NZ subbies?

    What is the difference and does it count?]

    I haven’t read the article CTar1
    Only the tweets.

    If Jessica Wright says the first para was “massaged” by the subbies, then she’s wrong.

    Subbies do the headings, they may edit an article itself for grammar or for facts, but they do not have the final say. The EDITOR does.

    And the editor would have the initial copy.

    Any “massaging” or editing of copy is done by the editor. The editor has the final say of what goes to print.

    Not a subbie in NZ or Qld for that matter.

    So, the final OKAY of an article is the responsibility of an EDITOR not a subbie.

    Much as they like to blame subbies.

    And, so, to answer your question, editors make a helluva lot of difference to the flavour/message disseminated from an article.

    Did you get a positive message?
    Or a negative message?

    It’s all in the lead (pronounced ‘leed’) – both the head and the first par.

    Unless that’s interesting no-one’s going to read any further, and will be influenced by same.

    Propoganda 101. Attracting Advertising 101, too!

  29. Gecko

    Davidwh
    [Gecko policy yes although hip pocket policy is generally dominant in many folks minds.]
    NDIS, Gonski, Carbon pricing, NBN, Ocean reserves, Murray/Darling and Health are hardly hip pocket policy my friend.

  30. davidwh

    Brough has sort of answered questions however his version doesn’t coincide with the court ruling. In Australia we give greater weight to the court which means Brough is telling porkies. Doubt we have heard the end of the Brough saga which may be a plus to Labor eventually. Depends on how the various appeals etc go.

  31. billie

    So are these Western Sydney battlers going to roll over for an almighty rogering from Tony Abbott or will they develop concern for their hip pocket nerve and their family’s future?

  32. kezza2

    CTar1
    [Wright the Younger is just claiming someone fiddled with her last draft.

    Who did it? Stuffed if I know. (The last time I saw her she would have been about 4).]
    Well, I just told you who fiddled with her article.
    If you didn’t want to know, why ask?

  33. davidwh

    They are where they impact people’s hip pockets Gecko. Problem with many people is they want the government to do all these things as long as they don’t have to pay much for them. In some ways we are a demanding but selfish lot.

  34. Scarpat

    So are these Western Sydney battlers going to roll over for an almighty rogering from Tony Abbott or will they develop concern for their hip pocket nerve and their family’s future?

    If they perceive the Coalition to be better economic managers then hello Tony.

  35. absolutetwaddle

    About the Chrisyopher Pyne “rumour” – which is as far as I can tell not an actual rumour but a rumour that there is a rumour… if it turns out, as has been theorized, that he’s gay who gives a shit?

    I’d be more amazed if it turned out he was straight. Either way he’s a gigantic annoying prick.

    Other than that I can’t imagine anything substantive or scandalous being leveled against him. He has disembodied hands scraping a chalkboard where his personality should be.

  36. Tom the first and best

    4

    My guess is that it is a dig a the misspelling of first in point 7 of the comment moderation guidelines (which bans silly starts to posts).

  37. CTar1

    kez –

    [Propoganda 101. Attracting Advertising 101, too!]

    I don’t know how it works but when someone who purports to have written it and the output is different openly complains, then there must be other very unhappy contributors.

    Tony, I guess is a shield – he is fiercely protective.

  38. Scarpat

    Hope that the following does not occur here:

    Last year, more active-duty soldiers killed themselves than died in combat. And after a decade of deployments to war zones, the Pentagon is bracing for things to get much worse

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/01/us-military-suicide-epidemic-veteran

  39. victoria

    davidwh

    The appeal by Ashby has nothing at all to do with Brough. He asked Ashby and Karen Doane to provide him with copies of Slipper’s diary and then gave them to journo Steve Lewis. No matter which way you look at it, Brough has no excuse for this conduct. How can Brough who had been atfempting to push Slipper out of his seat, and finally gets preselected for it, explain why he sought without permission copies of Slipper’s parliamentary diary from the staffer suing him for harrassment. It actually beggers belief that Brough has not withdrawn his candidacy.

  40. briefly

    victoria @ 3712 on the previous post

    You think the polls will be good for the LNP? You’re probably right. But I think there is an alternative. Call me wishful, but consider:

    The people see the LOTO playing make-believe again, and then a version of policy hide-and-seek at the National Press Club.

    The people notice the economic news remains healthy, and their personal circumstances have improved a some more. They approve of this, just as they enjoy putting butter and salt on their potatoes. A little pleasure can go a long way.

    The people notice the PM, looking very shiny, embellished and replete. They see her laughing at times, and then speaking (at the NPC) to remind us of her power. Then they see her sad-but-happy, releasing her friends from service, and then armed with some new talent too.

    They see the PM and note she has a full hold on power and has shaped it to her own hands. People will not mistake this. She has primed us for for the new election, confident in herself and the eventual decision.

    They see the jabbering fools in the media and dismiss them.

    There’s no need to weigh-up. There’s just the PM, her power and her increasing ranks.

    I’m serious about this. For a while after 2010, there was a sense of a power-vacuum, and while this was not literally true, the media and the LNP tried to inflate this idea, tried to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    But there is no vacuum. There is the PM and her Government, in possession of power and looking good with it. And if they are not exactly like other Governments, this does not matter. They have passed every test that has been presented.

    Meanwhile, with every week that passes, the LOTO looks more like the want of power and ever more like the two-edged, futile moan he has always been.

  41. Scarpat

    Either way he’s a gigantic annoying prick.

    This may be a reason that Pyne was not in the photo referenced by victoria earlier.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/Wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/LibsFrontPage.png

  42. victoria

    briefly

    We observe politics closely, but most dont. They get their news in soundbites, and it is generally negative for Labor. I truly hope your observations are correct.

  43. leone

    I thought Pyne missed the photo shoot because he had popped off to the hairdresser for a perm and some foils.

  44. zoidlord

    @davidwh/36

    Your not making sense, if Coalition takes stuff away (Remember Newman being praised by Abbott) then they want their tax payers worth.

  45. Von Kirsdarke

    A chilling story of the tragedy of veteran suicides in the USA.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/01/us-military-suicide-epidemic-veteran

  46. Meguire Bob

    Is Oakeshott still interested in an censure motion against Abbott, havent heard much more about it

  47. davidwh

    Zoidlord I think neither of is making sense from the others perspective.

    My point was that people want better health, better education, better aged-care, NDIS etc etc but get less enthusiastic if they have to pay for it through special taxes, levies etc.

  48. theclaw

    Re: “frist”

    [a variation of “first” posted to an online comment section to indicate that you were the first to post. the “i” and “r” often are intentionally transposed to convey the typist’s haste.]

    Also, it has history dating back to the early days of Slashdot. Variations on “first post!” became so annoying that auto-moderation was implemented; from there, it became an arms race as people developed ever-more-mangled version of “frist psot!” whilst the site admins updated the auto-moderator’s rules.

  49. kezza2

    CTar1

    Do you seriously believe for a moment that Tony Abbott is an alternative prime minister?

    He has had so many brain fades, they’re not worth mentioning.

    He can barely articulate a slogan let alone a policy in any portfolio.

    But that’s what Rupert loves: a compliant idiot.

    He doesn’t need to get Abbott in a compromising situation, Abbott does it all by himself.

    Cf. Christmas Island where Abbott tells a blonde sitting at a bar that “she’s better looking than JG.”

    Imagine the youtube video of Noddy’s 2-minute solo PLUS idiotic Tone – played incessantly through the print media and on Prime Time tele.

    Abbott would sink without a trace.

    And the wider Australian electorate would be none the wiser that they’d been taken out the back and shot at close range.

    But Abbott would know. Just like Rudd knows.

    Cross Rupert at your peril.

  50. Fran Barlow

    A terrible story Von Kirsdarke.

    Who knew that humans weren’t well suited to alternate between normal life, in which one respects other people, and being amoral mass killers?

    Oh … that’s right … most people.

  51. This little black duck

    [http://www.independentaustralia.net/Wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/LibsFrontPage.png]
    The alternative government is brought to you by Amway.

  52. briefly

    victoria, I agree with you, most do not watch closely. But I think mostly the soundbites do not register. They are like the kids in the playground at recess – all just shrieks and hollers – and to be mostly ignored.

    I think what registers is the whole succession of events and images…and what we see is a PM who not only gleams whenever you look at her, but is quite clearly an emotionally and intellectually real person. In classical terms, she is a kind of hero: she has met the challenges of office when everyone was predicting her failure. She has risen above doubt and defeat. She is greatness still growing.

    By contrast, the LOTO, by a long succession of self-parodies, has made himself into an anti-politician. In the end, he has succeeded only in turning himself into a Polly who wishes to deny his own identity; and who now seems to think the best he can do is get the media-fools to like him. This is not power. It is the opposite. It is rabble. He has publicly shredded himself.

  53. confessions

    Just watching Laurie Oakes’ news report, which I thought was pretty fair. I think the initial reaction to the resignations (including mine) will give way to a realisation that this isn’t disaster or chaos, and is actually quite normal in an election year.

  54. CO

    Oakes may have been fair but Riley on channel 7 was poor. Beat-up the ‘Government in chaos’ angle and almost created the impression PM & the other two were in tears due to this ‘chaos’.

    To top it off he closed with wtte ‘Tony Abbott was taking a Prime-Ministerial stance’ and played a clip of a smarmy Abbott saying wtte ‘hope the PM can steady her ship’

  55. lizzie

    A warning about the Sunday programs.
    [NickMcCallum7 ‏@NickMcCallum7
    What a week in politics! Election dates; Roxon, Evans quit; Thomson charged; Mathieson gaffe. It’ll be a fiery “Sunday Morning” 10am@3AW693]
    Best not to listen.

  56. gloryconsequence

    Riley did his usual overplaying of the day’s events.

    ‘I didn’t get a leak, so it must be a disaster’

  57. Oakeshott Country

    Trivia time in Werriwa:
    1. Chris Hayes is related to a player in one of the Labor scandals – who and how?
    2. Latham is one of three LOTOs who did not acieve ministerial rank. Who are the other two?

  58. Diogenes

    GC

    I thought Riley and PVO were the ones who broke the story about Roxon last night.

  59. Von Kirsdarke

    @Fran

    It’s why I’m afraid of a threat of a new war anywhere in the world.

    To think that after the disgusting displays of death in Iraq and Afghanistan that there’s still people baying for war with Iran is just beyond belief.

    My dad was transformed by the relatively quiet action in East Timor which he served in 2000. It horrifies me to think of how many families would be torn apart by further warfare.

  60. gloryconsequence

    Dio – the information on Roxon late last night wasn’t a leak. Was released by her staff.

  61. Darn

    [Do you seriously believe for a moment that Tony Abbott is an alternative prime minister?

    He has had so many brain fades, they’re not worth mentioning.

    He can barely articulate a slogan let alone a policy in any portfolio.

    But that’s what Rupert loves: a compliant idiot.]

    Very unkind Kezza, but absolutely true. 😆

  62. zoidlord

    @davidwh/50

    You don’t get otherwise.

  63. William Bowe

    [Latham is one of three LOTOs who did not acieve ministerial rank. Who are the other two?]

    John Hewson and … someone very early?

  64. Oakeshott Country

    The feral abacus was one. The other came from my home town and his highest administrative office was to be the Mayor of Lambton-New Lambton.

  65. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    William,
    if you’re about, it would be lovely if you included the current margin for whatever party for the particular seat you’re doing.
    I realise one can get the approximate from the moving graph, but the snapshot would be nice as well.
    Thank you, if you can do.

  66. confessions

    [Beat-up the ‘Government in chaos’ angle and almost created the impression PM & the other two were in tears due to this ‘chaos’.]

    Like the News ltd tabloids. Anyone who watched the press conference knew the emotion was genuine, heartfelt and solely because of the wonderful speeches given by both Chris Evans and Nicola Roxon.

    I thought Roxon gave Labor its lines for the election: we’ve spent the last 5 years cleaning up the mess left to us from the Howard govt. Roxon actually said a large part of her role as Health Minister was to clean up after Abbott’s tenure as Health Minister.

  67. Player One

    Fran Barlow@18


    DisplayName:


    A bit too eager there, Fran


    Frist in a thread is an old LarvatusProdeo meme. I was doing homage.

    cf:


    1. frist 21 up, 3 down
    a variation of “first” posted to an online comment section to indicate that you were the first to post. the “i” and “r” often are intentionally transposed to convey the typist’s haste.


    Urban Dictionary

    I assume this is smilar to how “pwned” got started.

    Fran,

    Have you not read the forum guidelines? – see point 7: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/comment-moderation-guidelines/

  68. gloryconsequence

    In 2010 during the election campaign, information was leaked about Gillard that made its way to the press. It was considered a bombshell and was the media’s free ticket to suggest Gillard’s authority was in tatters.

    In 2013 during the faux-campaign, information was leaked about Abbott that made its way to the press. None of the media cared.

  69. confessions

    [John Hewson and … someone very early?]

    That Manjimup potato farmer whose name escapes me? Or was he a minister in Court’s govt?

  70. CTar1

    k2 – The ‘Tony’ I was referring to was Tony Wright …

  71. William Bowe

    HSO, I have tweaked my text to include that information, and will try to remember to do so in future. I should probably be including it in a little table of key facts, but that’s too much effort at this stage – it will have to wait for when I publish my full election guide.

  72. Oakeshott Country

    Must depart – answers:
    1. The brother of Gerard Hayes (the great new reformer of the HSU-although I was involved in a very nasty branch stack with him and I am not that impressed by his reform credentials.
    2. Mattie Charlton leader of the ALP acout 1924-1928 and member for Hunter.

  73. confessions

    Darn:

    Peacock was a minister.

  74. kezza2

    I love the way PM Julia Gillard and World’s Best Finance Minister Wayne Swan have stuck it to Rupert Murdoch about who’s the Boss in Australia.

    Everyone laughed at Swan’s gee-up listening-material regarding the last Budget.

    To me, it was telling Rupert to get stuffed. We’re running Australia, not you, fker.

    And, they have done so.

    They do not listen to Rupert.

    And, boy (little man), is he put out.

    His instructions to Abbott to turn everything into a political soundbite has backfired.

    Note Abbott’s churlish comments regarding Margaret Whitlam.

    Note also the petty disallowance of a pair regarding Margaret Olle’s funeral, even though she was a Malcolm Turnbull constituent.

    Up yours, Rupert.

    Julia’s the boss, not you yanker

    We may have admired your mother, but we don’t admire you. We don’t admire your children either. Lachlan may hate you, but we hate you more.

    We’re not going to listen to your shite, through your children or Lachlan’s allegiance to Gina Rinehart at Channel 10, not the takeover of the one progressive newspaper we used to trust.

    Thank the living jingoes for social media, blogs and twitter. We can now fight you on an even keel.

    And you will never, repeat never, rob us of our say, because the NBN, that you despise, WILL make sure of that.

    Suck it up, traitor.

  75. William Bowe

    I did check Charlton’s page on Wikipedia, where I learned that he “rose through the ranks of Andrew Fisher’s government” – whatever that means exactly. Obviously not that he served as a minister.

  76. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    Thanks, William.
    The full election guide is obviously going to be a most interesting, though huge piece of work.
    I think I said this before, however, I’m finding the seats posts most interesting and informative.
    If it was me, I’d probably want to throw in way too many variables.

  77. confessions

    William:

    Do you know when WA parliament rises? I’m guessing the Senate replacement for Chris Evans will be held over until the incoming parliament sits after the election.

  78. confessions

    sprocket:

    It’s upside down, but is someone making a leadershit movie?

    Good luck getting finance.

  79. ruawake

    Latham was shadow minister for education, he resigned the ministry in 1998.

    If we are ruling out shadow ministers then, Rudd also qualifies.

  80. Gorgeous Dunny

    Fran
    You might have missed this one, since William redirected at page 75 and my post was on 76.

    3709 Fran

    The Wizard of Id was a great source of humor, especially in the late 60s. One other I always remembered also involved the King on the campaign trail.

    Question: What are you going to do about mugging in the streets?

    King: I’ll build more parks.

    Thirty years later I was amazed to hear John Howard invoke a similar style.

    Question: What are you going to do about the high rate of youth unemployment?

    Howard: I’ll make them work for the dole.

  81. briefly

    confessions @56 exactly so.

    This is the smooth passing of executive power from one set of hands to the next. It is not a calamity. It is a process that proves what we all well-know – people come and go, even Cabinet Ministers.

    The MSM continue to depict JG as if she is a shaky tower about to topple before our very eyes. They just do not understand how robust she is. Yet the MSM do not see this. They see only vulnerability. For mine, this reflects the deeply-embedded sexism of the media, and partly explains why they keep getting things so wrong.

    Our whole lives are lived among capable, educated and energetic women who understand and exercise power in some way or another. Power is no longer an exclusively male privilege – at least in the lived experience of most voters.

    The media are pitifully archaic in this respect, while voters – particularly female voters – have shown they can quite readily grab onto the idea of a powerful woman.

    Of course, the sexism of the media is a subset of the still-palpable sexism of the culture generally. But I think this is one (more) thing that JG – simply by resisting derision, malice and hate, and by so firmly holding power – is also changing.

    She confronted, named and silenced LOTO-sexism in the Parliament. The MSM seem not to have noticed, or to have forgotten already, but the rest of the country have not. In this respect, the rise of JG is an element in the slow re-making of the country as a whole. She is the living embodiment of the enduring struggle for equality in our culture.

    Perhaps this is the very reason for the at-times quite visceral enmity directed against her.

  82. gloryconsequence

    Briefly – they know exactly how robust she is. That’s why they fight so hard to cut her down.

  83. kezza2

    [CTar1
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 7:03 pm | PERMALINK
    k2 – The ‘Tony’ I was referring to was Tony Wright …]

    Sorry, if I misunderstood you.
    Got on a bit of a roll there.
    And decided to get it off my chest.

    36DD – for (wankery) gaspology’s sake.

  84. Darn

    Fess

    I wasn’t confident at all about Peacock. Just a bit of a stab in the dark.

  85. Greensborough Growler

    Was Evatt a Minister?

  86. Boerwar

    I suspect that more Aussie soldiers who served in Vietnam died of suicide than died in battle in Vietnam.

    Not sure of the comparable stats for Iraq and Afghanistan but Defence has around 30,000 PTSD cases on its books. The fact that they are counting them means, presumably, that the general support situation is a bit ahead of the truly slack way successive Australian governments supported Viet Vets.

    The ratio of vets:general population in jails is way higher than the ratio of vets:general population.

    It is high time that the military (and/or the civil) stopped fooling themselves and started psyche injuries and psyche deaths as part of war casualties.

  87. confessions

    Hmmm Crikey gremlins seem to be at work again.

  88. CTar1

    confessions – The ‘Tele’ is always upside down.

  89. rossmcg

    Confessions

    Wa parliament done and dusted. Writs will be issue next week I think. Interestingly because of a switch to 4 year fixed terms the Barnett minority government has had 4 and a half years

  90. Psephos

    From the last thread:

    @Fran: I’ve known Fran Kelly for (on and off) nearly 30 years so I’m somewhat biased in her favour. She certainly isn’t a Liberal stooge as some here have alleged, but she has strange ideas about journalistic “balance.” Her idea seems to be that the government of the day and the “serious” media must of necessity have an adversarial relationship. She sees it as the media’s job to criticise whatever the government does, and to give critics of the government far more airtime than supporters. Since we have a Labor government, this means of course that her programme is “objectively anti-Labor”, whatever she thinks she is doing.

  91. Psephos

    From the last thread

    I see from the ALP publicity photos at the Nova Peris facebook page that she has a white husband.
    https://www.facebook.com/adam.j.carr#!/photo.php?fbid=466787070041221&set=a.466786573374604.121840.459160564137205&type=1&theater
    This means that she will be exposed to the same campaign of covert racial denigration, as “not a real blackfella”, in the NT Indigenous community that Rioli and other ALP candidates were at the NT elections. No doubt the CLP will find some “authentic” Indigenous candidate to run as an “independent” against her. I trust the ALP is much more awake to this tactic now than they were then and has a strategy to combat it. I trust…

  92. Psephos

    William, labor has held Werriwa since 1934, not 1931.

  93. Greensborough Growler

    Boerwar,

    How about you cite some stats to support your assertions.

  94. CTar1

    kez – Thought so with no effort.

    We can quip another day?

    Have you moved those Tower blocks in the jig-saw for me yet?

    Keep good.

  95. confessions

    briefly:

    You’ll remember that Alannah MacTiernan copped similar treatment. Her hair was wrong, there was that time she made the front page of the West because of some strange, geometric outfit she had on the previous day (and because her hair was lopsided).

    Like Gillard, she was competent. Remember that our tabloid media seemingly hates tall poppies, esp if they excel in fields tabloid readers can’t get their heads around.

  96. Martin B

    Was Evatt a Minister?

    AG and External Affairs under Curtin/Chifley.

  97. BK

    There is an outbreak of seriously and willfully false reporting on the JG announcement today.
    Surely PMJG is within her rights to give some chosen ones a real public dressing down, bring their professionalism into severe doubt.

  98. CTar1

    GG – Attorney-General of the C’wlth.

  99. crikey whitey

    The name Gillard reached England in the great wave of migration following the Norman conquest of 1066. It is based on the Norman given name, Willard. This name is derived from the Germanic roots, will, meaning desire, and heard, meaning strong or hard.

    Source, House of Names.com

  100. Greensborough Growler

    psephos,

    You write that and I wonder why these images come to mind.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-7V3yctifo

  101. confessions

    rossmcg:

    Thanks for that. I had no idea WA parliament had wrapped up. Whatever happened to local 730Report on Fridays – my usual catch up of state politics?

  102. CTar1

    BW – Suspect all you want.

    MD Poole, 5RAR, stood on a land mine.

  103. Fran Barlow

    Player One:

    [Have you not read the forum guidelines? – see point 7:]

    Oh dear … I must concede I hadn’t read them. Oh well, maybe just this once … if I promise not to re-offend, I can be excused with a caution. I do kind of miss LP 😉

  104. dedalus

    Hi all,

    Haven’t logged in here for a while, been busy on stuff – but I’d like to cheer you up by explaining why the ALP is a near CERTAINTY to win the election in Sep.

    The astute among you should snap up the easy money on offer with the bookies. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

    Forget the polls which just reflect all the irrelevent beatups of the MSM.

    There is one big mother-of-all sleeper issues in this election year which is being carefully and almost totally avoided by the media, and for a very good reason. The media are afraid – very afraid. The mainstream media are going DOWN, DOWN like Coles’ big red finger. And the killer is Conroy’s baby, the NBN.

    You wouldn’t know about it from reading the OO’s trolls, but the sheer lust for the NBN is spreading like a wildfire through the minds of outer suburban and regional Australia.

    For skeptical or pessimistic readers who might think I’m going a bit over the top here, I invite them to click here, where they will find some 8000 pages of threads each containing between 5 and 100 pages, each page containing about 20 or so seperate comments: that’s about 500,000 seperate posts, and well over 2 million or so page views.

    A typical thread:NBN in Armidale started: 61 pages of comments.

    Apart from a few trolls, over 95% of the comments are positive – extremely so.

    There’s basically only one complaint, and it encapsulates the essence of the NBN as an electoral winner for the government:
    when is it coming to my street?

    The answer to this is glaringly obvious: probably never, if you vote for Tony.

    Come September, it’s game over. Bye bye Tony, nice knowin’ ya.

  105. Bugler

    William,

    May I make a request about SoTW (last one, I hope)? I find it difficult to read the names of the suburbs/towns on the electorate map, is it possible to get a higher resolution .gif, or at least one that’s a little clearer? If not, I’ll survive, I can always look on the AEC site.

  106. Psephos

    [psephos,

    You write that and I wonder why these images come to mind.]

    I’m mystified as to which of my posts reminded you of that clip.

  107. Greensborough Growler

    Psephos,

    You inspire in mysterious ways.

    I’m thinking Dawn French makes a good Trish Crossin or NT NT ALP substitute and Nova makes a good bride.

    Others dan fill in the gaps.

  108. Gorgeous Dunny

    William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    I did check Charlton’s page on Wikipedia, where I learned that he “rose through the ranks of Andrew Fisher’s government” – whatever that means exactly. Obviously not that he served as a minister.

    He was the one I was thinking of, something of a Newcastle legend. I read a little of him in a bio of TJ Ryan.

    According to that account, he took over what was left of the Labor Party after the Hughes split. In the 20s, Ryan, the former Queensland Premier (with Theodore as his deputy, then successor) was a rising star in federal politics.

    According to this writer, Ryan should probably have been given the leadership, rather than the Deputy’s job. Apparently the feeling was that Charlton was a thoroughly decent bloke who had loyally tried to keep the party together after it had been decimated. Nobody wanted to push him aside.

    It might still have worked out eventually, except for Ryan’s sudden death, only in his early 40s.

  109. CTar1

    Evatt refused and confused – to admit the truth.

    His heart was in the right place.

    A talented and good man.

    And worthy of respect.

  110. gloryconsequence

    Hugh Riminton on Ten tonight

    Abbott = stability
    Gillard = ‘a certain messy quality’

    They just write the Liberal talking points for them

  111. kezza2

    [gloryconsequence
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 7:03 pm | PERMALINK
    In 2010 during the election campaign, information was leaked about Gillard that made its way to the press. It was considered a bombshell and was the media’s free ticket to suggest Gillard’s authority was in tatters.]
    Yep, the infamous leaks of 2010.

    The first leak was on July 15. The big Oakes graced the Press Council Address, and the new-PM, JG graciously greeted Oakes.

    And what did Oakes have to leak? That JG had apparently given Rudd an iron-clad agreement that she would give him a couple of months’ grace to turn round the polls.

    But it didn’t happen.

    According to Ruddista Piping Shrike et al that was tantamount to heresy.

    We awaited the opinion polls with bated breath.

    There was an immediate drop in female support, but not in male support, for the JG PM.

    That wasn’t enough for News. Had to convince the males.

    So, on July 27, Laurie did the BIGGEST bombshell. That’s when leaked Cabinet discussions revealed that Julia Gillard had opposed not only increases in the aged pension (who gave a stuff about those who were about to die anyway) but that she queried the benefit of Paid Parental Leave.

    Oh my fkn nearest neighbours’ canary down the coal mine!

    After the Oz recovered from on-site CPR, it made every news service in town, as if Australia could not recover from a position where a Cabinet discussion did not include a devil’s advocate, declare that they hated Julia.Glory Be!

    And, yes, JG’s popularity sank like a stone.

    So, Murdoch had his “compromising” photo, without the lens.

    That’s how the fker operates, of course.
    Thanks Laurie, how about a Walkley for that?
    Okay, says Laurie, can’t get down on my knees, but I’ll accept.
    Duly done.

    Julia Gillard had every reason to try to play Murdoch’s game, but she didn’t and she STILL will not give in to Murdoch. She won’t play the Murdoch roulette.

    And Australia is a better country for it.

  112. Psephos

    [The name Gillard reached England in the great wave of migration following the Norman conquest of 1066. It is based on the Norman given name, Willard. This name is derived from the Germanic roots, will, meaning desire, and heard, meaning strong or hard.]

    That’s very interesting. There is a pattern of relationship between French words and names beginning with G and Germanic words and names beginning with W. French Guillaume, Germanic Wilhelm or William; French guerre, Germanic wehr or war; French guard, English ward; French guarantee, English warranty. The Prince of Wales in French is the Prince du Galles. General de Gaulle was descended from a Flemish family called de Waal. And so on. So the Norman French form must have been Gillard, not Willard. The Anglo-Saxon name Willard must have been changed at some time to the Norman French spelling Gillard, or maybe vice versa.

  113. john wright

    I love how everyone is discussing Labor’s chances of retaining Werriwa.

  114. Fran Barlow

    Psephos:

    My problem with Fran Kelly is not that she is hostile to the regime but indolent and vacuous, and inclined to nurture/indulge it in her guests, whether they are discussing Australian politics or not.

    This of course does tend to favour the LNP, for obvious reasons, but that’s merely a symptom of the problem rather than the problem itself.

    I really don’t see that her show offers anything that you couldn’t get for free in the commercial media, so I wonder why she’s is being paid at all. Indeed, one can argue that her program is worse than empty airtime since her vacuity on the ABC lends credibility to the debauchery that passes for political discourse in the MBCM in this country.

    For mine, that makes her worse than Jones.

  115. rossmcg

    Confessions

    Can’t help yo there on the 7 30 report. I am an afternoon shift worker and if there is one thing that can be said in favour of shifts is that you don’t spend a lot of time watching crap on tv. If I find or hear about something good I can always chase it up on the net but most of the time I Just don’t bother. Bit of an AFL tragic tho so it’s a different story in winter

  116. Diogenes

    The suicide rate for active military personnel isn’t all that much different to that of a demographically matched sample.

    To truly know, you’d need to see whether people who go into the military are more or less likely than the general population to commit suicide.

    http://www.afsp.org/files/Misc_/Public_Policy/Issue_Briefs/Mil_Vet_SP_2012_w_bill_info.pdf

  117. psyclaw

    Psephos @ 95

    I’m not sure which part of your comment is FB’s and which part is yours.

    Nevertheless as a long term daily listener to FKelly it is my view that her problem is that she has poor I/V ing skills, like so many others. She is also usually deficient in intimate background knowledge of the subject matter.

    John Roy Slaven-Doyle whilst occupying her chair over the past 6 or 8 weeks(????) conducted all his interviews with great skill. His background prep even when I/V ing OS guests about matters not of common knowledge here, was excellent.

    The difference I think is in pure skill and talent.

    JRS-D guides the interviewee to participate in a pertinent discussion and does not overtly seek gotchas. In this way he creates a relationship such that the person cooperatively opens up about the matters at hand ….. a bit like Frost, Parkinson and our own Andrew Denton.

  118. gloryconsequence

    Galaxy is in the field. Wife just got polled.

    First preference
    Gillard satisfied/dissatisfied
    Abbott satisfied/dissatisfied
    Preferred ALP leader – Gillard, Rudd, Shorten, other
    Preferred Liberal leader – Abbott, Turnbull, Hockey, other
    Do you approve/disapprove of Gillard announcing election early

  119. ruawake

    How much will the Libs fttn cost and how will they fund it? What will be the power infrastructure costs for the thousands of kerbside wardrobes?

    Why is nobody asking the question?

  120. Psephos

    Charlton was elected as ALP leader following the deaths of both Frank Tudor and T J Ryan because he was a decent chap and there was no-one else with any talent in the wake of the 1917 split. Little was expected of him, and he did not disappoint. They tried to bring in Theodore to replace him in 1925 but he unexpectedly failed to win Herbert. Charlton gratefully made way for Scullin in 1928.

  121. Greensborough Growler

    Fran,

    Indeed it was quite inspiring to listen to John Doyle over the break who always seemed to be across the topics he was discussing and skilfull enough to question his expert guests so as to challenge them and the listeners.

  122. Player One

    Psephos@95


    From the last thread:

    @Fran: I’ve known Fran Kelly for (on and off) nearly 30 years so I’m somewhat biased in her favour. She certainly isn’t a Liberal stooge as some here have alleged, but she has strange ideas about journalistic “balance.” Her idea seems to be that the government of the day and the “serious” media must of necessity have an adversarial relationship. She sees it as the media’s job to criticise whatever the government does, and to give critics of the government far more airtime than supporters. Since we have a Labor government, this means of course that her programme is “objectively anti-Labor”, whatever she thinks she is doing.

    Bollocks. Fran Kelly is snide and nasty. She and Chris Uhlmann both epitomize what is wrong the ABC’s current idea of “balance”. Equal time means nothing when the presenters themselves make it so evident that they adore one side of politics, and hold the other in complete disdain.

  123. Psephos

    [I really don’t see that her show offers anything that you couldn’t get for free in the commercial media, so I wonder why she’s is being paid at all. Indeed, one can argue that her program is worse than empty airtime since her vacuity on the ABC lends credibility to the debauchery that passes for political discourse in the MBCM in this country. ]

    I’m afraid I have to concur with m’learned friend.