tip off

Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition; Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll records a blowout in the Coalition’s poll lead, while Galaxy delivers a par-for-the-course first result for the year.

UPDATE: Now we have Newspoll as well, and it’s Labor’s worst result since July: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down six), 48% for the Coalition (up four) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The poll also has Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister all but vanishing, down from 45-33 to 41-39. Gillard is down two points on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 52%, while Tony Abbott is up four to 33% and down two to 56%.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll to be published tomorrow shows the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 35% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Tony Abbott does unusually well on personal ratings relative to Julia Gillard, with 36% satisified and 57% dissatisfied against 38% and 57% for Gillard. Fifty-five per cent say the election should be held in September against 38% who want an election now. As is all too often the case with Galaxy, a further question seems to have been set as bait for anti-government headlines in the News Limited tabloids which publish the poll. In this case, respondents were asked if they believed Julia Gillard’s explanation for announcing the election date, rather than the more obvious question of whether they approved of her doing it. Trust in politicians being what it is, this came in at 53% for no and 41% for yes, which if anything is surprisingly high. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1015, for the usual margin of error of around 3%.

UPDATE (5/2/13): Essential Research, reporting a day later than usual, has Labor down a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, down now to 34%, its lowest since September. However, the Coalition and the Greens are unchanged at 48% and 10%, with the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead likewise steady at 54-46.

UPDATE (6/2/13): Morgan published a result from last weekend’s face-to-face polling while I wasn’t looking, and it has the aggregate major party vote returning to normal after a slump in the poll for the previous two weekends. Labor is up 2.5% to 38.5% while the Coalition is up 3.5% to 42.5%, with the Greens down 3.5% to 8.5%. That pans out to a slight gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred, extending their lead from 50.5-49.5 to 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and reversing a 50.5-49.5 deficit on the previous election measure.

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  • 1
    Gary
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Surprise, surprise.

  • 2
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    As A Reminder:

    Galaxy Poll December 1st:

    56-46

    Galaxy Poll 3rd Feb:

    56-46

    No change.

    News Poll Jan 14th:

    51-49

    The real numbers are somewhere in between.

  • 3
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+1) L/NP 48 (0) GRN 10 (-1)

  • 4
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    Hardly par for the course, many were expecting a blowout.

  • 5
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    Will we see Newspoll tonight, I wonder?

  • 6
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Galaxy Poll Abbott: Approve 36 Disapprove 57 #auspol
    Expand

    1m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Galaxy Poll Gillard: Approve 38 Disapprove 57 #auspol
    Expand

  • 7
    Leroy
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    zoid – some of those numbers = 102% :)

  • 8
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Should #ausvotes be now or Sept 14: Now 38 September 55 #auspol

  • 9
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    ruawake

    Gillard’s declaration that Thomson had her “full support” is now looking like the kind of statement that deserves one of of those memory-wiping sticks from the Men In Black trilogy.

    I don’t like the guy, partly because it’s very likely he’s a thief and a whoring scumbag liar and mostly because his ridiculous antics (if proven in court like I suspect they will) will do no small part in bringing Abbott to office.

    If you’re a fan of Thomson good luck to you. You’re taking a lot on faith though.

  • 10
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord@2


    As A Reminder:

    Galaxy Poll December 1st:

    56-46

    Galaxy Poll 3rd Feb:

    56-46

    No change.

    News Poll Jan 14th:

    51-49

    The real numbers are somewhere in between.

    Interesting numbers there zoid.

    56 – 46 … so out of 102?

  • 11
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    So the Labor primary is up one. It’s hard to see how news will make mischief with these results.

  • 12
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Galaxy Poll Should #ausvotes be now or Sept 14: Now 38 September 55 #auspol

  • 13
    James J
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/02/02/seat-of-the-week-werriwa/?comment_page=23/#comment-1534256

  • 14
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    If Thomson is by some miracle found innocent of the charges against him I will send him a personal letter of apology for disbelieving him and give him a voucher for the best hooker in Melbourne.

  • 15
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    Labor primary up 1, bemused will be so disappointed.

  • 16
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle@14


    If Thomson is by some miracle found innocent of the charges against him I will send him a personal letter of apology for disbelieving him and give him a voucher for the best hooker in Melbourne.

    Your personal rating?

  • 17
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Yes, the Positive Abbott mini-campaign has done absolutely nothing for his approval ratings. That, supposedly, was the point of the cosmetic surgery, the Credlin sob-story and dragging his daughter along to pressers.

  • 18
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Gillard net sat -19%
    Abbott net sat -21%

    It’s been a good while since we had a leader with a positive satisfaction rating.

  • 19
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    @frednk/15

    As will Rummel.

  • 20
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor primary up 1, bemused will be so disappointed.

    Dont know about Bemused, but i am.

  • 21
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Don’t worry bemused, newspoll’s MOE will probable deliver the news you want.

  • 22
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    He better hope so.;)

  • 23
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    So Abbott’s net sat slightly up and JG slightly down is how i read it (without having the previous numbers in front of me). MOE stuff really.

  • 24
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Absolutetwaddle is right. If Labor loses this election, it will mostly be the fault of the people in charge of the NSW Branch for (a) rolling Iemma and destroying the credibility of the NSW state government, (b) tolerating corruption for so long that it eventually became a public scandal, (c) conspiring with R*dd to undermine Gillard, and (d) preselecting Thomson in 2010 when he was already stinking fish.

  • 25
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    William, the Galaxy Poll was Friday to Sunday.

  • 26
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    frednk@15


    Labor primary up 1, bemused will be so disappointed.

    Are you competing for the stupidest comment award?
    You just got my vote.

    Of course that 1% came at the expense of the Greens rather than the Libs, so when you take account of fewer green preferences flowing, it isn’t worth much at all. So far within the MOE it is nothing.

  • 27
    john wright
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Labor 35 and Coalition 48. Don’t both seem too high??

  • 28
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle@14


    If Thomson is by some miracle found innocent of the charges against him I will send him a personal letter of apology for disbelieving him and give him a voucher for the best hooker in Melbourne.

    You’re probably on fairly safe ground there. They’ll likely be found not proven, which will mean people like you can still pronounce him guilty in the Court of Public Opinion. And I’ll just have to hang out on a limb with my innocent-until-proven-guilty attitude. I feel so dirty.

    You don’t run a circus around an arrest if you think you’re on solid ground. You usually let the process of law do it for you. They’re trying to hound him out of parliament; any suggestion that they’re relying on things like evidence and process is quite risible.

  • 29
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    twaddle – Why does Thomson matter so much?

    More than Brough?

    The fun there is just starting to brew.

    Attention spans are short.

  • 30
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    a) rolling Iemma and destroying the credibility of the NSW state government

    What do you think about Iemma getting preselected for a Fed seat? Sounds like baggage Labor doesn’t need to me.

  • 31
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Coalition yes john wright, RAC assessor.

  • 32
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Psephos:

    Rudd whiteanting and undermining was happening years ago.

  • 33
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Trying to find the previous Galaxy netsat results. Not easy!

  • 34
    john wright
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    My prediction was spot on, on the 2PP.

  • 35
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Are we still expecting the Greens to make a late charge? they better get to work on Labors left to scrap a few % while they still can. They have been very, very quiet of late (costing policy maybe) :)

  • 36
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think Thomson is going to cause any more damage to Labor’s fortunes. People have made their decisions about him already. No-one was remotely surprised when he was charged last week so it really added very little.

  • 37
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor primary up 1, bemused will be so disappointed.

    Dont know about Bemused, but i am.

    Don’t worry rummel I am sure newspoll MOE will deliver for you. If it doesn’t then you guys have a serious problem. The press unhinging can’t go on for much longer without it doing unrecoverable damage to their credibility. Without the press the collection of has beens that is the Liberal front bench will be exposed. And what was the bonus Abbott handed the PM this week. The Liberals aren’t going to put any of them out to pasture.

  • 38
    Jaeger
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    It’s been a good while since we had a leader with a positive satisfaction rating.

    It’s been a good while since Australians were happy-go-lucky instead of miserable, selfish b’tards.

  • 39
    john wright
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Coalition yes john wright, RAC assessor – say what?

    I was expecting something like 32 and 45, both partie’s pvs seem too high.

  • 40
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think Galaxy usually does straight approval ratings, KB.

  • 41
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    john wright
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    My prediction was spot on, on the 2PP.

    No change!

  • 42
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    What’s the interesting thing is the Satisfaction of the Election date, 38 (against) 55 (for).

    Which makes the whole beef with Coalition for Election down the drain.

  • 43
    AJ Canberra
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    So how the hell is an unchanged TPP and a slightly improved ALP primary, albeit at the Greens’ expense, a disaster for Labor?

  • 44
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    confessions@32


    Psephos:

    Rudd whiteanting and undermining was happening years ago.

    Hahahaha…

    Relax frednk, someone else has just overtaken you for the stupidest comment award. :evil:

  • 45
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    It’s ok Jaeger, you can get away with bastards.
    Unless you write G*d like that.

  • 46
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Thanks William. Good to see them entering that field if so (or perhaps re-entering after long absence). That said with a result at odds with other pollsters and no prior data for benchmarking, hard to know what to make of it.

  • 47
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Don’t worry rummel I am sure newspoll MOE will deliver for you. If it doesn’t then you guys have a serious problem.

    We will. But the journey to election day is going to be fun for young and old, no matter the polls.

  • 48
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    And has anyone seen SHY of late?

  • 49
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    I agree that a Iemma comeback would probably arouse more bad memories in NSW than it’s worth. On the other hand he’d be well placed to win the seat, which might otherwise be at risk with an unknown newbie candidate.

  • 50
    womble
    Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    I think SHY was on Manus Island last week or the week before

    Good to see everyone is ready to blame NSW for Labor’s woes, the problem is bigger than that imo

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