Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition; Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition
Newspoll records a blowout in the Coalition’s poll lead, while Galaxy delivers a par-for-the-course first result for the year.
UPDATE: Now we have Newspoll as well, and it’s Labor’s worst result since July: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down six), 48% for the Coalition (up four) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The poll also has Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister all but vanishing, down from 45-33 to 41-39. Gillard is down two points on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 52%, while Tony Abbott is up four to 33% and down two to 56%.
GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll to be published tomorrow shows the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 35% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Tony Abbott does unusually well on personal ratings relative to Julia Gillard, with 36% satisified and 57% dissatisfied against 38% and 57% for Gillard. Fifty-five per cent say the election should be held in September against 38% who want an election now. As is all too often the case with Galaxy, a further question seems to have been set as bait for anti-government headlines in the News Limited tabloids which publish the poll. In this case, respondents were asked if they believed Julia Gillard’s explanation for announcing the election date, rather than the more obvious question of whether they approved of her doing it. Trust in politicians being what it is, this came in at 53% for no and 41% for yes, which if anything is surprisingly high. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1015, for the usual margin of error of around 3%.
UPDATE (5/2/13): Essential Research, reporting a day later than usual, has Labor down a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, down now to 34%, its lowest since September. However, the Coalition and the Greens are unchanged at 48% and 10%, with the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead likewise steady at 54-46.
UPDATE (6/2/13): Morgan published a result from last weekend’s face-to-face polling while I wasn’t looking, and it has the aggregate major party vote returning to normal after a slump in the poll for the previous two weekends. Labor is up 2.5% to 38.5% while the Coalition is up 3.5% to 42.5%, with the Greens down 3.5% to 8.5%. That pans out to a slight gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred, extending their lead from 50.5-49.5 to 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and reversing a 50.5-49.5 deficit on the previous election measure.
Psephos @ 24 : To all of those, you could also add a complete inability to act in a timely way in response to clear messages from the community re all of those problems. Robertson being the man of action on reform now, rather than years ago, is laughable. You get no credit in my book for doing the right thing only when all options for doing the wrong thing have run out.
Bemused, I understand you’re a fan of comment moderation guidelines. See number three. And grow up.
KJ – 54/46 is a disaster in itself.
rummel – no, and let us all be thankful. Dumbest person in the Parliament.
True womble, we will need another stunt from Adam Bandt to see the light.
What a fizzer that was.
Psephos@49
I think you read that correctly and it poses an exquisite dilemma.
I think on balance he should not stand.
Having done a fair bit of work on an awards panel over a number of years in Sydney’s West I can tell you that Iemma is highly regarded. He considered very much a clean skin that was rolled by the forces from the dark side of Labor’s right.
He would not only be an asset for Labor in the seat he’s running in, but also right across three or four other seats that are supposedly under threat.
Aguirre
People ‘like me’ have worked hard for unions and spent a lot of time defending people on low wages and worse conditions. It upsets people ‘like me’ to see the cesspool the HSU was before, during and after Thomson’s tenure.
If all of Thomson’s claims are true he’s still a shitty union official exactly of the type better suited to HR. I’ll be glad when he’s gone in any case.
William Bowe@52
Bemused, I understand you’re a fan of comment moderation guidelines. See number three. And grow up.
I am a fan of them being applied in an even handed manner.
I’m told that Newspoll is also 54-46, with a Labor primary of 32%.
On the previous thread, I said I thought this Galaxy poll was intended to capitalise on Abbott’s new Positive approach for 2013. It’s been conducted at what would have been the end of Abbott’s mini-campaign to show off the booklet and say positive things. They would have wanted to poll the approval ratings to give the Coalition a talking-point.
Hasn’t worked out that way of course. The Coalition couldn’t help themselves after Gillard announced the election date, and they’ve gone the tonk on the ALP.
No-one in the media seemed to notice how Abbott’s mini-campaign just fell apart. They’d prepared well for it, softening up the electorate with fluffy tales of Credlin’s IVF, and rolling out various members of the Abbott family. He got his face touched up and everything. One announcement from Gillard and all that planning flew out the window. As you can see from the Galaxy figures, nobody has changed their mind about Abbott. They still think he’s poison.
William@1112 on the other thread.
So you didn’t say this or is the percentage in error or both?
If so, withdraw of course.
I seem to remember in some item you wrote about 12-18 months ago (?) – can’t put my hand on it, but you were commenting on that fact that too far out from an election is a dangerous place to predict how people will vote.
I then seem to remember the 50% figure you mentioned as it has always stuck in my mind.
Would be pleased to hear where I have gone wrong on this or I just got the figure wron.
Morris was so detached from everything that I think he could get away with it.
A good man, get around him.
But possibly my source is referring to the Galaxy by mistake. He is only a politician after all.
Bemused, just as I didn’t ban those who breached the guideline you were harping on about the other day, so I don’t ban you for repeatedly breaching number three (the most important once, it so happens). There is one reason only why you come into conflict with me as often as you do, and that is that you are one of the most childish and nasty people who regularly posts here.
absolutetwaddle@57
Well that’s a bit more like it. I’m not going to complain about what you think of him. It’s the presumption of guilt that annoys me.
Gillard had positive netsat for a while at the end of 2010, as did Abbott.
Rudd was 40% positive netsat in 2009.
Henry – it got mainstream media attention early in the week, not surprisingly it got overrun by other things later on
Sets him up to ask a question or two and ramp up the pressure next week – well worthwhile imo
most childish and nasty people who regularly posts here. …..
Oooooooooooooohhh…..
WB strutting his stuff…….
Modlib does better than Nate Sliver, supposedly.
Try harder.
Lemma has a perfect comeback, I was sacked by these clowns.
That’s quite a blow out on previous polling.
Chins up everyone! We’re on a track for a big win September 14!!
Meanwhile……back in the real world…….
Yes but see my 2nd post, I think it’s a false sighting
So Conroy as leader in the senate means bugger all really doesn’t it?
Still look forward to him caterwauling in the background every time Brandis and Cormann do their stuff in the senate.
You could suffer to be a bit more mature yourself, Rossmore.
George on Iemma
agree with this, and it may also help heal some wounds in the party, and in the demographic which Iemma represents.
Psephos:
You’re gorgeous!
And re the HSU – I agree with you totally. Cesspool. However, I would like to see a bit more attention paid to the likes of Jackson and Lawler, who not only have attached themselves to some of the worst excesses, but have managed to get their greasy hands all over the investigation, and have been steering it the way they wanted it.
You’ve got to root-and-cause it, not plant it all on the nearest available scapegoat.
‘I’m told that Newspoll is also 54-46, with a Labor primary of 32%.’
Great news! The coalition are toast.
Toast I tell you.
Julia just has to steady the ship keep doing what she’s doin’ now and we’re home!!!
Three more years! Three more years!
The Hon Member admits he doesn’t know which poll he is referring to, so I think that means he saw the Galaxy and thought it was a Newspoll. Hon Members are a bit jumpy on poll night.
so with the Labor power base seemingly moving to Melbourne can we expect things to improve???
remembering of course they are the ones that gave us Stephen Fielding
Off to bed for in high spirits!!
AJ Canberra
Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
So how the hell is an unchanged TPP and a slightly improved ALP primary, albeit at the Greens’ expense, a disaster for Labor?
Didn’t you follow Mod Lib’s posts on the ACT elections? He found a way of making it a big loss for Labor.
Rosemour we get it. Perhaps tone down the smug and you won’t have a need for that self-pitying moniker…
Here we go – ‘Greens’ votes coming back.
Others who went Right will follow in the coming months.
Focus will do it in about July.
William Bowe@64
Anything you say William.
The thread that draws your ire started with frednk @ 15, but not a peep out of you.
If Jackson is guilty of corruption let her be charged, tried and convicted. But I’d be a bit careful about impugning the integrity of a Fair Work Australia commissioner.
Carey:
I’m thinking of changing it to Rosemour the Elated seeing as how full of confidence I am and eager for us to secure that big win waiting down the track!!!
Were did the 32% labor vote come from then Psephos, thats not what it is in Galaxy. How can all you lot say nothing have changed, you honestly dont have a clue becaus ethis is the first galaxy for this year. It not for the last week it may have been 51-49 or anything. You wont know if there is any effects until you see newspoll or essential.
“Aww, Miss, but he did it first!” The authentic voice of the delinquent eight-year-old throughout the ages. But apparently you’re in your sixties.
Newspoll 56 – 44!
@bemused/86
telling someone that they’ll be disappointed doesn’t earn the ban-hammer on blogs/forums.
So we’ve got Murdoch’s tabloids and Fairfax’s ‘broadsheets’ onto the story of Barnett possibly having misled parliament.
I didn’t catch ABC news tonight, but there is nothing on ABC news online to this effect.
Morris Iemma is a classic Sydney ALP man – migrant as a child, state schools, Sydney University on the back of Gough’s abolishment of fees, white collar union, staffer for Grahame Richardson, good local member, minister, replaced Bob Carr unopposed in 2005.
There is a huge number of Sydney people, including aspirationals and professionals who related to a similar personal or family journey, and can be won back.
Iemma was booted by Obeid/Tripodi and co in 2008. What happened over the next 4 years in NSW is a sad story, and regrets are many. Really surprised intervention hasn’t been used to clean things out, maybe it will be?
I will find it disappointing because it will indicate the press still has some influence on the outcome, it will however not change my view that they cannot keep it up for 8 months.
Am listening to Bowie’s latest “Where are we now” and am now feeling quite maudlin.
Those were the days.
How about ‘Rosemour the Confused’?
That wasn’t my guess, that’s the result.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (0) L/NP 54 (0) #auspol
Go Tony!
William Bowe@90
“Aww, Miss, but he did it first!” The authentic voice of the delinquent eight-year-old throughout the ages. But apparently you’re in your sixties.
Just trying to compensate for your selective blindness. Always eager to assist.