Comments on: Western Australian election guide: March 9

By: Dan Gulberry

Dan Gulberry — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 12:40:52 +0000

An interesting cartoon in this morning’s West showing McGowan standing in front of a map of the MetroNet system, and Barnett running with a bucket to put out the fire on a burning bus. The caption said simply, Labor transport plan v Coalition transport plan.

I believe that on election day, it’ll be a lot closer than the polls are indicating at the moment. How close, is impossible to quantify though.

Even if Barnett wins, I think the actual result will give him a wake up call.

By: WeWantPaul

WeWantPaul — Sun, 10 Feb 2013 10:14:16 +0000

There’s nothing magical about 40% primary support. But there is something diabolical about 35 (and less elsewhere) when your two-horse race opponent for capturing govt, the Coalition is upwards of 150% of your support.

It’s a nationwide Labor malaise; WA state Labor may be ahead on the long road back, but the cure cannot just be regional.

I agree.

By: Graeme

Graeme — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:40:39 +0000

WWP. I expressed myself hastily. There’s nothing magical about 40% primary support. But there is something diabolical about 35 (and less elsewhere) when your two-horse race opponent for capturing govt, the Coalition is upwards of 150% of your support.

It’s a nationwide Labor malaise; WA state Labor may be ahead on the long road back, but the cure cannot just be regional.

By: WeWantPaul

WeWantPaul — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 13:04:19 +0000

It’s the credibility of the party as a whole (leadership, team, reputation, brand). And Labor’s, everywhere bar Victoria, is shot: sub-40%.

I am not sure how you guess this. You are clearly equating a brand score of less than 40% 1st preference as ‘shot’. I’m not sure this is a reasonable speculation, much less a solid conclusion.

WA has always from well before Federation lent to quite conservative. Not too stupid like Qld does, just conservative.

I don’t think for a minute Labor will win, I hope, but no rational part of me expects it, but the Labor brand at a State level has been a lot more shot over the last 20 years than it is this year. The last loss should and needs to be put down to Carpenter, Sullivan, Bullock and a couple of friends like Burke, but it wasn’t a brand shot issue.

Much less so now.

By: Graeme

Graeme — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:40:16 +0000

“So more Labor voters than not think they will win despite trailing 57-43 with a month to go. Sigh.”

Why sigh? At least the naive can be optimistic.

What astounds me is folk, on the other thread, focusing on new boy McGowan’s shine. It’s not US, direct election coattails in Oz ! It’s the credibility of the party as a whole (leadership, team, reputation, brand). And Labor’s, everywhere bar Victoria, is shot: sub-40%.

In such a way that not only can’t a clean skin like McGowan do much: but a cancer like Abbott is only a marginal drag on the Opposition.

By: James J

James J — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:31:01 +0000

Voting
This is the only party or candidate you will consider voting for on election day 49 (Labor 47, Coalition 56)
You will probably vote this way but there is a slight chance you may vote for someone else 36 (Labor 42, Coalition 30)
You could vote this way but there is just as much chance you will vote for someone else 13 (Labor 10, Coalition 12)
You will probably not vote this way on election day 1 (Labor *, Coalition 1)
Uncommitted 1 (Labor 1, Coalition 1)

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:30:58 +0000

Newspoll post.

By: James J

James J — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:19:18 +0000

WA State Newspoll

2PP: 57-43 to Libs/Nats

Primaries: Labor 35, Lib/Nat 51, Greens 8

Barnett: Satisfied 47, Dissatisfied 42

McGowan: Satisfied 51, Dissatisfied 26

Better Premier: Barnett 44, McGowan 40

Which party will win the WA election: Labor 25, Lib/Nats 59

Poll conducted 3-7 Feb. 1100 sample size

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:15:06 +0000

Snap.

So more Labor voters than not think they will win despite trailing 57-43 with a month to go. Sigh.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:13:37 +0000

Ghost Who Votes:

#Newspoll WA State 2 Party Preferred: LIB 57 (-1) ALP 43 (+1)

#Newspoll WA State Primary Votes: LIB 45 (+2) NAT 6 (0) ALP 35 (+5) GRN 8 (-4) #wapol

#Newspoll WA Barnett LIB: Approve 47 (-2) Disapprove 42 (+5) #wapol #auspol

#Newspoll WA McGowan ALP: Approve 51 (+7) Disapprove 26 (0) #wapol #auspol

#Newspoll WA Preferred Premier: Barnett 44 (-4) McGowan 40 (+11) #wapol #auspol

#Newspoll WA State Which party will win: LIB 59 ALP 25 #wapol #auspol

Outstanding leader ratings for McGowan given that his party is being smashed to smithereens on 2PP.