Things are changing, I believe, and the daily more obvious Labor victory in Western Australia shows they are changing

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/our-dear-old-swanny/

There is a link to Western Australia but of course it is not some research Bob got off his ample arse to do – just Anthony Green’s website.

I received in the letter box today, a pamphlet bagging McGowan but with no clear indication who had published it rather than one “Morton” who must be part of the Liberal apparachik.

Interestingly, apart from attempts to bad-picture-paint McGowan, it had a huge picture of him in the gear.

My immediate thought, as this stuff was herded to the bin was, well, if the conservatives wanted the electorate not to know who McGowan is then they have done the potential voter a favour by providing a not-to-bad picture of him!

Seems most of the WA electorate is largely switched off this might be news to many.

The attached negative comments were fairly bland, but a surprisingly defensive approach.

I would have thought a better one was to ignore McGowan and just lard up the Emperor.

For those who haven’t seen it: left panel = McGowan, drawn in front of the Metronet plan (photocopied, not cartoonist-drawn) in a suit and tie. Caption: “ALP transport system”. Right panel: Barnett in short sleeves carrying a couple of buckets, running after a bus on fire (there’s been a few of those lately). Caption: “Coalition transport system”. It’s now on my fridge.

According to Grylls (reported by Spangnolo): “….he believed Labor had done a secret deal to preference the Liberals – a move that could see the party lose, North West, Moore and Central Wheat Belt” – seats you mentioned in your post.

Central Wheatbelt is way too safe for Labor preferences to change things much. The result in 2008 was Nat 47.8%, Lib 25.6%, ALP 16.7%, and they got over 50% before Labor had even been excluded (the combined Lib+ALP vote was 5.5% below the Nats). If the Libs want to win the seat, they need to get a pile of the Nats’ vote themselves. If Max Trenorden had run here and directed preferences to the Libs, that could’ve swung it the same way as John D’Orazio in Morley, but since he’s running in the upper house instead, that won’t help the Libs.

As for North West Central, it could happen – it’d be ugly for Labor if they dropped from first to third, though. That’s gonna be a strange one (as will Pilbara and Kimberley). I’m putting all three of them in the “wait and see” basket.

The ray of sunshine for WA Labor is that undecideds appeared to be breaking quite strongly in McGowan’s favour compared to the last WA Newspoll on the leader’s ratings.

The 57 Lib/Nat TPP looks awfully high for a government whose cabinet has at times looked very ordinary indeed.

WA Labor have none of the baggage that they carried last time with angry disendorsed members, the final purging of the Burke influence and of course the ‘arrogance’ charge against Carpenter for going early. Also last time the party machine was completely unprepared.

I guess no great surprise re: McGowan dissing the carbon ‘tax’ and WA Labor not wanting the PM anywhere near their campaign. Infuriating for those who see the federal scene as being more important and have made some effort publically to argue the merit of the carbon ‘price.’ There must be strong feedback from focus groups that this is the correct tactic for targeting the marginal state seats.

The polls to watch for IMO will be the marginal seat ones once we get to within the last fortnight before the election.

Education: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 3

Health: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 4

I find these two in particular very hard to understand.

Best at handling the following issues:

Cost of living: L/NP 39 ALP 39 Someone else 3
Economy: L/NP 54 ALP 28 Someone else 2
Education: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 3
Environment: L/NP 28 ALP 29 Someone else 26
Health: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 4
Industrial Relations: L/NP 40 ALP 39 Someone else 2
Law and Order: L/NP 42 ALP 32 Someone else 3
Public Transport & Roads: L/NP 35 ALP 46 Someone else 3
Taxation: L/NP 47 ALP 28 Someone else 2
Water Management: L/NP 36 ALP 28 Someone else 12

Question:

Do you strongly agree, partly agree or disagree that each of the following describes Colin Barnett/Mark McGowan

Has a vision for WA: Barnett 81, McGowan 81

Understands the major issues: 73, 81

Decisive and strong: 79, 73

Cares for people: 66, 82

Likeable: 62: 82

In touch with voters: 57, 74

Trustworthy: 64, 75

Question:

Which of Colin Barnett or Mark McGowan do you think is more capable of handling the WA economy?

Barnett: 54 (Labor Supporters 26, Coalition Supporters 79)

McGowan: 33 (Labor Supporters 62, Coalition Supporters 13)

Neither: 3 (Labor Supporters 2, Coalition Supporters 2)

Uncommitted: 10 (Labor Supporters 10, Coalition Supporters 6)

Well, I don’t know the ins and outs of these seats but the ST’s header is “Nationals facing wipeout”

According to Grylls (reported by Spangnolo): “….he believed Labor had done a secret deal to preference the Liberals – a move that could see the party lose, North West, Moore and Central Wheat Belt” – seats you mentioned in your post.

The piece goes on to say “Mr Grylls said the Labor plan was designed to destroy the Nationals – and to end the $1 billion a year spend-up under the Royalties for Regions program.

He said Labor preferences could determine seats in which the Nationals finished third.

Labor state secretary Simon Mead yesterday confirmed that Labor would preference the Liberal Party 50-50 with the Nationals.

He admitted Labor would preference the Liberals in the North West as pay back for sitting member Vince Catania defecting from Labor to join the Nationals in 2009.”

My comment is that anything that can be done to cut the Nationals off at the knees if fine even if it puts the seat into the Libs side of the ledger. This mob, through RforR have used this rort to buy votes. They also, are the tail that wags the Liberal dog.

Also, if a defector like Catania gets thrown out on his ear, so much the better. The word that comes to mind for him rhymes with banker.