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Federal Election 2013

Feb 10, 2013

Seat of the week: Makin

Labor enjoyed blowout majorities in traditionally marginal Adelaide seats at the 2010 election, but the Liberals are expressing optimism that what went up might be about to come down.

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The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. The redistribution has added around 6000 voters from Port Adelaide in the west, including a newly developed Liberal-leaning area around the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes along with strongly Labor Salisbury further north. The combined effect has been to shave the Labor margin from 12.2% to 11.8%.

Makin is one of three seats which went from being Liberal seats in the final term of the Howard government to Labor seats with double-digit margins after the 2010 election, together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of safe Labor Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. Makin was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company.

Duncan’s Liberal successor was former nurse Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. The swing against Draper at the 1998 election was just 0.2% compared with a statewide swing to Labor of 4.2%, and in 2001 she bettered her 1996 margin after picking up a swing of 3.0%. Draper went on to hit serious trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had taken a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, in breach of rules limiting the benefit to spouses. She nonetheless survived by 0.9% at the 2004 election, despite suffering a swing which was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

Tony Zappia won Makin for Labor on his second attempt in 2007, and handsomely increased his margin to 12.2% in 2010. He had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely reckoned to have been victim of his own factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a factional deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia.

The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term, as he was unable to win the seat in 2004 whereas Wortley was elected from the Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, he performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since run for election with Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have backed Kevin Rudd during his February 2012 leadership challenge. His Liberal opponent is Sue Lawrie, who has variously run flower sales businesses and worked on the staff of various Liberal MPs. Lawrie has run several times at state level, most recently as an independent Liberal at the Port Adelaide by-election of February 2012.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1401 comments

1,401 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Makin

  1. Aguirre

    guytaur@1175


    @sspencer_63: Tipping point for print media? 3 of the best and most senior Gallery print journos leave for online in one week.

    Personally I do not include Grattan in that

    She’d be the “most senior” part of it, wouldn’t she?

    Personally, I can’t see where Murphy fits in.

  2. lizzie

    guytaur @ 1199

    Ouch! Scott’s common sense is others’ RW slant.

  3. Boerwar

    Dio

    I am sure that the Guardian will be looking for a quality psephy and William would be on top of the list…

    I will have a bit of a conundrum to add to my other conundrum: would I take up an Oz Guardian subscription straight away or would I wait until my Crikey sub runs out?

    (My other conundrum is whether to miss a Hawthorn final in order to hand out of HTVCs.)

  4. Boerwar

    g
    If it is Scott’s version of ‘common sense’ we can write off the ABC’s coverage now.

  5. Aguirre

    Taking those two Scott lines together, it looks as if they’re intending to run their usual slanted approach to politics until they’re forced to change at the point the election is announced.

    It would have been nicer if Scott could have said “We always strive to balance our coverage, so the calling of the election will have little effect on us in practical terms.” But he’s gone another way, it seems.

  6. confessions

    Boerwar:

    Halfway between Albany and Walpole. More south coast than south west, but still lots of Karri forests here.

  7. bemused

    Totally off topic but since you are all users and occasional buyers of PCs, it should be highly interesting.
    [You have heard of Apple, Lenovo, HP, Acer, Dell, Toshiba, Sony etc. Well guess where they shop?
    You won’t have necessarily heard of Inventec, Quanta, Compal, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn), Pegatron and a few more but these handful of Asian contract manufacturers make almost every main stream computing device on the planet.

    For example Compal makes around 13 million notebooks for Lenovo (about 42% of Lenovo’s 30 million shipments in 2012). Acer and Dell seem to favour Wistron, HP Quanta while Apple uses Foxconn and Pegatron.

    What this means is simply that Brand names are now not much more than bulk buyers that negotiate with the OEM’s for a branded notebook, tablet, PC or screen adapted to their style.]
    Where did I really come from?

  8. confessions

    [One of Perth’s biggest councils is removing turf from grassed areas and replacing it with native plants in a bid to cut down on water and energy use and ease urban heat.

    The City of Vincent said it was turning to native plants amid fears that Perth was running out of groundwater and would soon have to start drilling deeper underground to find supplies for its parks and ovals. ]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16105996/grass-turfed-out-for-native-plants/

    A good move. Incidentally Alannah MacTiernan is the Mayor of the City of Vincent.

  9. Boerwar

    confessions

    Ta. When a top predator (even an introduced one such as the Laughing Kookaburra) markedly increases its numbers then you know something significant is probably happening to your natural systems. It is highly likely that if the drying trend is affecting ants to the extent of apparent extinctions in some cases, it will be disturbing all sorts of other species, and the relationships between species, as well.

  10. Boerwar

    confessions

    Good to hear.

    Some of the response to AGW are going to include some very sensible stuff.

  11. citizen

    Now that the Guardian has started recruiting for its Australian edition, I wonder what is happening with the proposed Australian edition of the Huffington Post?

  12. CTar1

    citizen – ‘The Huffington Post’?

    I’d rather the septic’s press stay away.

  13. Boerwar

    citizen

    good question as well.

    As nimble consumers of digital product we will be getting much more choice than the standard twisted pro-Liberal dead tree stuff owned by old farts on the far side of the world.

  14. ratsak

    sustainable future at 1076

    [Howard and Costello got two things right in their whole time in office – gun reform and creation of a largely independent reserve bank. ]

    You are far too kind. Guns, sure probably Howard’s greatest achievement, but Reserve Independence? That’s just another myth that somehow the Libs have managed to conjure up to make them look more credible than they are.

    The Reserve was always ‘independent’ of government in that it had a governor and board tasked with certain duties even going back to before the Reserve was split from the Commonwealth Bank. What most people today would call effective reserve bank independence in Monetary Policy was around from 93 when Bernie Fraser publicly set the 2-3% inflation target. It is pretty much this mid term inflation targetting through the cash rate that has been what we talk about when we say the Reserve is independent.

    [The appropriate degree of price stability to aim
    for is a matter of judgement. My own view is
    that if inflation could be held to an average of
    2–3 per cent over a period of years, that would
    be a good outcome]

    http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/1999/may/pdf/bu-0599-2.pdf

    Costello merely formalised this as part of the transition to the new Governor Macfarlane. During the 96 election campaign the Coalition’s policy was to ‘protect the integrity and independence of the Reserve Bank’ not to actually create independence. It’s independence was well recognised at this time. What Costello did was good as far as it goes, certainly much preferable than the alternative, but it was no great reform. Mostly it was political, a case of form over substance. Looking like you’re doing something really important when really all you’re doing is endorsing the status quo.

  15. daretotread

    Zoomster

    I really start to wonder if you have your finger on the political pulse anymore.

    Honestly what was wrong with Murphy’s analysis. Not earth shattering but still quite acceptable.

    You may not like her but your detailed attack actually made you look a bit out of date.

    Dot point one – I assume she was referring to the Bradbury release enthusiastically linked here, where he said the idea was going to cause traffic jams in Sydney. It was a bit b=daft and Barnyardesque

    Your comment about the mining industry was just silly – sure you have showmen like Palmer and gits like Gina, but the industry is a bit bigger than that. And frankly my dear loathsome they may be but they employ people, export stuff and are still what is keeping the economy afloat.

    Labor and Liberal Katter and YES even Greens need to be mindful of their impact and influence.

    You show your unwillingness to connect with the real world in your denial of the Katter influence. In the last Qld election Katter took much (even MOST) of the blue collar vote in Northern Qld. Cannot you see ha=w incredibly serious this is.

    Just as the DLP took much of the catholic working class and all of the catholic middle class vote to the Libs and nationals (especially in Qld) Katter is doing the same with the residual

    Katter voters will tend to follow a ticket and that will NOT go to Labor – at least not at the moment.

    Katter is biting at the heals of Labor and the Nationals and both parties are wide to try to stem the drift.

    Any yes bizarre as it may seem there in increasing friendliness between Katter and the Greens with the CSG issue one on which they are in lock step.

    Zoomster the world does NOT stop at the NSW Northern border. In a few short years Qld will have a larger population that Victoria and may even challenge NSW. You need to adjust to the real world, not the past.

  16. Boerwar

    citizen

    good question as well.

    As nimble consumers of digital product we will be getting much more choice than the standard twisted pro-Liberal dead tree stuff owned by old f*rts on the far side of the world.

  17. Boerwar

    Well, that is interesting. The original of 1217 went into moderation. I changed one ‘a’ into an asterisk (as per 1217) and it got through.

  18. Player One

    bw@1198

    [ It would be great if Megalogenis and Tingle also headed to the Guardian. ]

    I wonder if the fact that the Guardian was in the field recruiting is the reason some journalists finally found the courage to ask some “tough” questions at Abbott’s NPC appearance?

    Were they just auditioning? If so, now that the positions available appear to have been filled, can we expect a return to the crap political journalism that has become the norm?

  19. Boerwar

    DTT @ 1216

    ‘… frankly my dear…’

    Outing yourself right there, pal. You don’t actually have to be personally revolting to get your point across.

  20. Boerwar

    PO

    You raise interesting possibilities. The NPC is one place that Abbott could neither run nor hide. Quality journalists finally had their opportunity to ask just the one question each.

    I have heard of hiding your light under a bushel but the Liberals’ lack of policy scrutiny and Abbott’s lack of personal scrutiny is a travesty of democracy.

  21. daretotread

    BW

    You can still hand out HTV and see your match. Take on one of those friendly rural booths in E-M and a well charged lap top with a wireless connection.

    You might even find the electoral office willing to let you all watch.

    I know that in rurl EM they are all very cosy

    🙂

  22. citizen

    The ACT Liberal Party has moved into open warfare. Note the comment by Sen Humphries that the right wing is moving to control the party.

    [Internal feuding in the Canberra Liberals over the Senate preselection has been rife since Mr Seselja announced last week that he would challenge Senator Humphries for his seat.

    Senator Humphries and ACT division members have criticised the process saying it was timed to minimise the amount of support the senator could mobilise before the February 23 preselection vote.

    Senator Humphries said on Sunday there was a move by the right of the ACT Liberals to control the party both federally and in the Legislative Assembly.

    He said he was informed of the leadership deal over the weekend and Liberals MLAs had also been ”apprised of what’s going on”.

    ”There is essentially a move by the right of the party, with the Young Liberals basically in the thick of this,” he said.

    ”The trade-off is that Zed gets the Senate seat and Alistair gets the leadership of the ACT party.

    ”It’s all a move to have the right controlling the party in both sections {of government}.]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/coe-set-to-lead-the-act-liberals-20130210-2e6v8.html#ixzz2KXb5uauC

  23. Steve Clements

    Boer @ 1178:

    The Guardian, I think, will beome my primary news source. Crikey (and Pollbludger) will slide into second place.

    Twitter, with all of its faults, is becoming increasingly important to me.

  24. poroti

    Player One

    [ wonder if the fact that the Guardian was in the field recruiting is the reason some journalists finally found the courage to ask some “tough” questions at Abbott’s NPC appearance?]
    I wonder if a recent outbreak of articles like this one I linked earlier was also “audtioning” for the Grauniad ?
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-big-paradox-of-2013-20130210-2e6g6.html

  25. daretotread

    Now BW

    How in the name of heaven can “frankly my dear” be revolting. A little patronising I can accept but revolting!!!!!

  26. Boerwar

    DTT
    Agree. We had just the one Liberal punter who got vociferous in a nasty and personal way and his own side shushed him down. The rest of the day we spent as citizens doing our democratic stuff in an amicable sort of rivalry. (They beat us with the best spot for the signage by getting there half an hour early).

  27. sohar

    “Common sense” is what rednecks use to oppose facts, data and and scientific evidence.

  28. guytaur

    @lyndalcurtis: (for those who are interested ..PBO info on costings and work program here http://t.co/092hx6Ag)

    “@guytaur: @lyndalcurtis There goes LNP excuse on not producing policies.
    #auspol #ausvotes”

  29. daretotread

    Fits with my understanding of the booths. I have some old friends and some family in E-M

  30. Boerwar

    dtt

    Frankly my dear, if you can’t work that out for yourself, you would appear to have missed noticing all that gender chat in the 20th century.

    Rhett was, after all, the 20th centuries’ archetypical male chauvinist, condescending, patronising, pig. Don’t even get me started on Scarlett.

  31. Boerwar

    d
    It sort of helped that we had farming backgrounds… plenty of stuff to talk about other than politics.

  32. daretotread

    Citizen

    That Humphries stuff is almost amusing. It is great to see the Libs behaving like Labor at its factional worst.

    Maybe, just maybe this could be the time when a Green takes out the Liberal

    What is this Zed character like?

  33. Boerwar

    SC
    We live in hope but, as someone very clever pointed out in relation to being a footy fan, and whose name I have forgotten, it is not the despair that sets you up for pain, but hope.

  34. citizen

    [There’s no point anyone else bothering to enter the Public Relations Institute of Australia’s Golden Target awards this year – Team Packer blitzed all possible entries last night by taking over Channel 7’s Sunday Night program, the pinnacle of a campaign to turn Crown’s bid for a privileged Sydney casino licence into an act of philanthropy, a nation-building vision of something that means “more than money”.

    With both the O’Farrell government and what’s left of the Labor Party already in the cheer squad with sections of the city’s media for Crown avoiding a competitive tender, you might wonder why Packer is bothering. But a good PR machine leaves nothing to chance.

    On Friday the Daily Telegraph was gushing about James Packer building a $10 million training college as part of the Penrith Panthers complex.

    “It will be unabashed luxury, a creative masterpiece, a centrepiece for Australia’s biggest urban development – and it will all be staffed with eager workers from western Sydney,” was the Tele’s intro.

    “Crown also will push into local Penrith schools and create avenues for students to complete school-based traineeships and apprenticeships. Panthers staff also will be given the opportunity to be trained in the college and seconded to work at Barangaroo when required.”

    Given that Penrith Panthers is a casino in all but name, it’s a reasonable fit, particularly when Panthers has financial challenges of its own.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/packer-rolls-the-dice-with-dazzling-pr-blitz-20130211-2e73h.html#ixzz2KXcsuSdK

  35. CTar1

    DTT – Zed in one word: Lazy.

  36. guytaur

    @ariannahuff: Tony Schwartz: studies show that naps, time off, “boosts productivity, job performance and, of course, health.
    http://t.co/K5iL8NHu

  37. daretotread

    BW

    Believe it or not I have never seen the film or read the book.

    Certainly NOT sexist in any way – could have used the phrase for male or female

  38. Boerwar

    d
    Zed is energetic, clever and presentable. I assume that this means they will choose Humphries whose job is not to stir up a storm but pour oil on the roiling waters of imminent smash up of the ACT and regional economy, including therein Yass, Queanbeyan, Bungendore and Bateman’s Bay.

    Abbott’s smash at this regional economy provides us with hope that the punters in EM understand which side their bread is buttered on. And that side will be neither Gary nor Zed.

  39. guytaur

    DTT

    Due to the film which I fell asleep attempting to watch, that phrase is associated with exactly the stereotype produced.

    So in common parlance that phrase is a put down like it or not.

  40. Boerwar

    d

    I see I have made a false assumption about a shared canon. It is the killer line in a movie watched by umpty squillions of people. It has entered popular usage to such an extent that even peope who have never seen the movie use the phrase.

    ‘Frankly my dear, I don’t give a damn’:

    Rhett to Scarlett when he informs her that all her scheming and manipulation count for nought and that he is off.

  41. Boerwar

    CTar1
    Hey. We have 100% disagreement. He did neglect Belcoland for Nappy Valley which paid handsome dividends if not quite getting him over the line, millstoned as he is with the Party Room members from hell…

  42. daretotread

    BW

    The chance that the Libs would NOT get a senator is so low that it is not worth worrying about but perhaps a glimmer of hope occasionally.

  43. poroti

    sohar

    My fave saying about common sense is “Common sense is not so common.”

  44. CTar1

    BW – He reminds me of Navy PO’s working at Russell.

    They walk around the office space briskly and look busy at their desk but are just deciding between Lamingtons or a pie with sauce for morning tea.

    Intellectually lazy with out doubt.

  45. guytaur

    Adam Bandt on 24 now

  46. sprocket_

    probably mentioned already, but the UK Guardian has been the leader in invetigative journalism leading to the outing of Rupert Murdoch’s organs as serial law breakers.

    this lack of fear of the Murdoch narrative would be most welcome here. They could start with NewsLtd links with the Victorian police, and the Liberal staffer retirement home which is The Australian.

  47. Boerwar

    DTT

    It is a fascinating example of individuals voting against their hip pocket nerve.

    I have discussions with small business people on the topic. I point out that the loss of large numbers of jobs would have an immediate and direct impact on their livelihoods. They don’t care because everyone knows that Labor is bad for the economy.

    The cafe operators in central Brisbane finally did get to put two and two together but it appears that they actually had to lose their money and their business before they are capable of understanding that the Coalition can be remarkably destructive economic managers when they put their heart and soul into it.

    As for Newman, so for Abbott.

  48. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: Govt warning about scammers trying to get people to pay an admin fee to access NDIS. It says people DO NOT to have to pay to participate.”

  49. Boerwar

    sprocket

    Good point. The latest complete failure in investigative journalism in Australia has been the sports corruption story. The problem may be that the journalists had jobs with MSM which was owned by folk who owned skin in the sport game.

  50. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Sen Birmingham is being a twat in Senate Estimates. He was questioning Mark Scott (ABC) about the balance on Radio National, over Summer. He quoted all the government guests. Conroy kept pointing out that Abbott would not appear. Conroy then asked , if Tony Abbott would agree to appear on 7.30 every week (or fortnight?) if asked. Conroy also pointed out that they had prevented Turnbull from appearing, and that if Turnbull got the chance he would appear any time he could.

  51. Steve Clements

    Boer: Grog, too!

  52. Boerwar

    CTar1

    An intellectually lazy Liberal?

  53. Boerwar

    SC
    Sad but true.

  54. Steve Clements

    Boer, you won’t have to worry about the Hawks making the finals 🙂

    Agreed, Bilbo would be a good addition, and/or Poss. David Marr, too, but The Guardian must be careful not to be seen to be too ‘progressive’.

  55. Boerwar

    SC
    I am a bit worried that they might have been peptiding their way to the finals… but who really knows?

  56. Space Kidette

    Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC

    No Labor candidate listed yet for Alfred Cove #wavotes

  57. guytaur

    Abbott attacking unions Parliament on 24 now

  58. Space Kidette

    Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC

    No Green candidates listed yet for Eyre or Kalgoorlie #wavotes

  59. sprocket_

    [InstofPublicAffairs @TheIPA 55s
    Great news – @TheIPA’s @jameswpaterson will be appearing on @QandA tonight! ABC1, 9.35pm #qanda
    View details ·
    ]

    one of the panelists is ill, so the ABC have put an IPA shill on tonight. Outrageous.

    I for one, will not be watching, and urge a boycott of #qanda

  60. guytaur

    Wyatt Roy wears glasses. Had not noticed before.

  61. CTar1

    guytaur – May be he’s following JG’s lead and trying to look authoritative.

  62. guytaur

    “@702sydney: Congrats to @gotye who has just won Best Alternative Music Album and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance w/@kimbramusic @TheGRAMMYs #Grammys”

  63. Gecko

    [Wyatt Roy wears glasses. Had not noticed before.]

    I told him it would send him blind… Morning all

  64. victoria

    sprocket

    George Brandis is one of the guests. That is enough for stopping me from watching

  65. victoria

    Qanda
    Tonight’s Panel
    Chris Evans – Labor Senator for Western Australia
    George Brandis – Shadow Attorney General
    Corinne Grant – Comedian & Writer
    Rachel Botsman – Author & Social Innovator
    James Paterson – Editor of the IPA Review

  66. guytaur

    “@AustralianLabor: We want a brilliant graphic designer who can produce on & offline campaign materials. Email jointhefight@australianlabor.com.au for info.”

  67. Martin B
    Howard and Costello got two things right in their whole time in office – gun reform and creation of a largely independent reserve bank.

    Reserve Independence? That’s just another myth that somehow the Libs have managed to conjure up to make them look more credible than they are.

    The Reserve was always ‘independent’ of government in that it had a governor and board tasked with certain duties even going back to before the Reserve was split from the Commonwealth Bank. What most people today would call effective reserve bank independence in Monetary Policy was around from 93 when Bernie Fraser publicly set the 2-3% inflation target

    Indeed I believe every Treasurer from Howard to Costello claimed credit for creating an ‘independent Reserve Bank’.

  68. confessions

    Victoria

    Ugh Brandies on qanda means I won’t be watching!

  69. poroti

    victoria

    An anagram of George Brandis that may help next time you see him on tv “Raging Bedsore”.

  70. Diogenes

    BW

    Hand out HTV cards at the footy final.

    The AEC won’t have any officers there and if its a sellout, they won’t be able to get in, unless they call the cops.

    Problem solvered.

  71. confessions

    Oops brandis not brandies.

  72. victoria

    poroti

    LOL!

  73. poroti

    confessions
    [Oops brandis not brandies.]
    After Brandis you need the brandies

  74. Martin B

    Do you think the way the ALP has polled under Gillard in the 12m leading up to the 2013 election is the same as how the LNP polled under Howard in the 12m leading up to the 2004 election

    Aside from KB’s analysis there is another reason why yours is somewhat dubious. We don’t have the “12m leading up to the 2013 election”.

    We know that Howard won the 2004 election and thus the polls got close leading up to the election. We don’t yet know what will happen at the 2013 election. If it is the case that the ALP win then you can guarantee that the same thing will happen – the polls will tighten up at least in the last couple of months with lots of neck and neck polls and probably some with the ALP ahead.

    As it is you are trying to compare two series with different properties – one which ends at an election and one which currently ends >6m out from an election.

  75. Steve Clements

    Vic. we can only hope that Corinne will use her wit to expose Brandis as the evil shyte he is.

  76. MTBW

    Abbott has just moved in Parliament a bill to jail Union Officials who misuse Union Funds – 11am news on 2UE.

  77. CTar1

    ‘fess – He makes me feel like drinking Brandy.

    I never watch it – it’s idiotic.

  78. dave

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1250


    Sen Birmingham is being a twat in Senate Estimates. He was questioning Mark Scott (ABC) about the balance on Radio National, over Summer. He quoted all the government guests. Conroy kept pointing out that Abbott would not appear. Conroy then asked , if Tony Abbott would agree to appear on 7.30 every week (or fortnight?) if asked. Conroy also pointed out that they had prevented Turnbull from appearing, and that if Turnbull got the chance he would appear any time he could.

    Its a tactic that works for the libs and they just keep chipping away claiming ABC bias. Its a slight variation of the tactics murdoch used on the BBC to get their operations wound back slightly – murdoch claimed the BBC were doing stuff he could do and it was unfair.

    The libs also used the tactic even when they were in power.

    Under the management of the libs appointees the ABC is little more than an imitation of the commercial FTA media and is of diminishing worth in my view anyway.

  79. bemused

    MTBW@1276


    Abbott has just moved in Parliament a bill to jail Union Officials who misuse Union Funds – 11am news on 2UE.

    Yet another stunt.
    What next,a bill for politicians misusing public funds, a bill for every other occupation misusing funds?

    Surely it is well and truly covered by existing laws?

  80. Gecko

    Brandis comes across as a know-it-all born-to-rule… I think the more he appears the more it helps the cause in general. I place Kelly O’Dwyer, Sophie Mirabella and the Mussel’s from Brussels (love that name) in the same field. The more the merrier for mine.

  81. Rosemour or Less

    Some LNP clown in the senate is saying the gig miners are popping the corks because Labor’s pissweak tax isn’t costing them anything.

    If the ALP don’t comprehensively target this latest coalition hypocrisy they deserve to lose.

    Get Rudd out pronto ti king hit this shit before it takes hold like pink batts, school halls and border protection.

  82. Scringler

    [ Fairfax crisis as journos quit ]

    Victoria,

    Thanks for that. What a shambles.

    +++

    Listened to some of John Faine on ABC 774 this morning. It seems the Victorian Government is becoming nuttier by the hour.

    Apparently, the Melbourne Zoo was running a campaign called “Wipe for Wildlife”. Yep, this is about loo paper. Seems the zoo endorsed a particular brand of this essential product.

    A section of the forestry industry was miffed. The Victorian Government issued a decree to the zoo: Stop it.

    (Sorry. Details are a bit fuzzy. I heard this stuff before strong coffee.)

    Faine, on the verge of serious giggling, interviewed the “responsible” minister, whose name I promptly forgot.

    This hapless twerp prattled. Faine, at one point, said WTTE: This is like something out of “Yes, Minister” … doesn’t the Victorian Government have better things to do …

    So, the upshot. I would expect all avid poopers to contact the Melbourne Zoo for the name of the endorsed brand of dyke paper. This is big.

    Reclaim the dunny!

  83. MTBW

    bemused

    They played a small grab and not all details are available.

  84. CTar1

    Scringler

    [Reclaim the dunny!]

    😆

  85. Boerwar

    Dio
    Droll.

  86. psyclaw

    In yesterday’s Sunday Terrorgraph a writer Jordan Baker did a two page advert on behalf of JBishop showing how wonderful she is.

    In the headline and in the body of the text he stated that she would be Deppity PM to Abbott.

    I emailed him asking him to correct the wrong impression this creates, hiding from the electorate that they would indeed have a very, very, really very classy Deppity PM. Mr Truzzzzz.

    I pointed out to Baker the breadth of esteem Truzzzzzzz holds throughout the electorate, ie virtually none.

    It is interesting that the conservos on PB who admit they don’t go too much on the idea of Abbott as PM never mention the class and competence of his backstop as leader of the nation……Deppity Truzzzzzzzz ie the nation would be in double trouble.

    Dog Albitey help us!

  87. confessions

    Ctar

    He is like pyne : very annoying!

  88. Scringler

    [ “@lenoretaylor: Excited to be Guardian Australia’s new political editor. Leaving for new opportunities, not – as Oz claims – due to Fairfax management” ]

    Spoken like a true journo: Always cover your arse.

  89. victoria

    Scringler

    Fairfax lost its readership due to the crap reportage by their journos. Simple as that

  90. sustainable future

    [Newman Government guidelines for social media advise ministers to exercise caution on Facebook and Twitter]

    wouldn’t they need opposable thumbs to text? most of them should be safe then.

  91. psyclaw

    I will still watch Qanda just to see Brandis come unstuck.

    Every time he appears he gets seriously laughed at by the audience once or twice as a result of self inflicted stupidity. Nobrains/plennyatalk.

  92. Gecko

    [Abbott has just moved in Parliament a bill to jail Union Officials who misuse Union Funds – 11am news on 2UE.]

    Abbott PM with Newman, Barney and Ted as premiers? God help the Union movement and workers rights. Be very aware Australia, it will be a loooong way back from these turkeys if they ever get all the keys.

  93. psyclaw

    Bemused

    Is this the first bill Abbott has moved? If not, what? And did it get up?

    Thanks

  94. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    How can the Federal Parliament set penalties for state laws?

  95. Burgey

    There’s already a law for union officials who misuse funds. It’s called the Crimes Act. Ask Craig Thomson.

    This is just another stunt.

  96. psyclaw

    Grattan’s great analytical skills came to the fore in the first paragraph of her first Conversation article.

    She believes it will be a long time before we have another hung parliament.

    Clearly she’s an expert in probability as well as politics.

  97. CTar1

    psyclaw – Moving bills: every ones doing it.

    ‘Don’t know him from Adam’ is doing a mining tax one as well.

  98. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    burgey,
    He wants to get the ALP to vote against it so he can crow about ALP/Union buddiness in the election campaign.

  99. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    The gov’t should send it to a Committee. It is probably not constitutional.

  100. citizen

    [What is this Zed character like?]

    From a marketing point of view, he is easier to sell than Gary Humphries.

    This latest story about Zed’s push for pre-selection probably explains one mystery. Before the ACT election in October last year, the ACT Liberals rented a shopfront for their campaign office in the Lanyon Marketplace, a shopping centre in far south Canberra. The shopfront windows were plastered with large posters of Zed and the other Liberal candidates for the ACT Brindabella electorate.

    After the election everything was removed except two extra large posters of Zed in the shopfront windows and the posters remain to this day. Today it doesn’t seem so strange why these posters have remained, as the shopfront could be used for Zed’s senate bid if in fact the Liberal Party continues to lease the shop until September.

    It does of course raise the question: was Zed considering all along to seek election to the Senate, or at least after he failed to become ACT Chief Minister?

  101. psyclaw

    Grattan argues that the vitriolic politics comes from the fact of a hung parliament.

    Is she saying that a hung parliament with Nelson, or Turnbull or virtually any past conservo leader as LOTO would have been similarly and inevitably poisonous as this one, under Abbott.

    Don’t think so Ms G!!!!

  102. Gecko

    [Abbott has just moved in Parliament a bill to jail Union Officials who misuse Union Funds..]

    Headline: Liberals launch IR policy.

  103. zoomster

    daretotread

    only a few months ago you were predicting a Federal wipe out in Queensland and the collapse of the world as we know it brought on by the carbon price.

    Pardon me if I don’t take your own predictive abilities very seriously.

  104. Space Kidette

    Drag0nista ‏@Drag0nista

    Excellent piece on ‘Losing the narrative’ from @JaneTribune in this week’s @KingsTribune http://bit.ly/11A4b9q

  105. WeWantPaul

    Abbotts post election victory IR plan is no doubt simply to amend this mornings legislation by deleting the letters ‘mis’ in the word misuse. Perfect IR.

  106. Player One

    [ “@AustralianLabor: We want a brilliant graphic designer who can produce on & offline campaign materials. Email jointhefight@australianlabor.com.au for info.” ]

    A job for George Bludger?

  107. bemused

    psyclaw@1293


    Bemused

    Is this the first bill Abbott has moved? If not, what? And did it get up?

    Thanks

    I have no idea. I was just commenting on what MTBW said she heard on the radio.

  108. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    A woman killed in McKay, Qld. This is another victim who screamed loudly. We know that because people later reported hearing it. None of the lousy bahstards called the cops, though.

    Australians are turning into complete self-obsessed mongrels.

  109. Space Kidette

    Puff,

    We have one around here that the cops are only now investigating because she hasn’t been seen since. Little late now.

  110. victoria

    Player one

    Great idea!!

  111. mari

    [Player One
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 11:47 am | PERMALINK
    “@AustralianLabor: We want a brilliant graphic designer who can produce on & offline campaign materials. Email jointhefight@australianlabor.com.au for info.”

    A job for George Bludger?]

    I agree and DMed him with it he reckons he isn’t a professional, tried to convince him otherwise 😉

  112. victoria

    Player one

    Just saw this tweet from George

    @Maybeee2011 @BarossaObserver @AustralianLabor appreciate the call-out, but I’m not a designer 🙂

  113. sustainable future

    Labor and the Greens should add an amendment to Abbott’s latest mind-fart to also jail politicians and business directors who misuse funds. Then they should investigate Abbott’s use of taxpayer funds to promote his books and campaign on his lies about carbon pricing, and investigate taxpayer funds that may have been used to support Brough and Ashby in their conspiracy against Slipper.

    I hope Labor simply answers that the laws already allow jailing of those who are found to have behaved criminally in a way that deserves sentencing. what a stunt!

  114. Boerwar

    The Government should accept the draft bill with a few small but germane amendments:

    (1) After the words ‘union officials’ insert the words ‘ministers, parliamentary secretaries or other parliamentary office holders’.

    (2) Insert the following clauses:

    (i) ‘accidents’ or ‘mistakes’ or ‘departmental errors’ or ‘clerical errors’ or ‘office staff errors’ are not a defence under this Act.

    (ii) Paying back monies at any time is a mandatory part of the penalty and is neither a defence under the Act and cannot be under any circumstances a mitigating consideration in sentencing for any offence under the Act.

    (3) A mandatory jail term is an automatic part of the sentence for any offence under this Act.

    (4) The possible penalty for any offence under the Act will always be greater than the threshold for automatically being expelled from parliament.

    These changes would have had a plethora of Howard/Costello government ministers and backbenchers in jail as well as being turfed out of parliament.

    Ironically, Reith would have amongst the most prominent to be drummed out of Parliament and in jail.

    Fair is only fair.

    We would not want Abbott running a protection racket.

  115. victoria

    sustainable future

    [Labor and the Greens should add an amendment to Abbott’s latest mind-fart to also jail politicians and business directors who misuse funds]

    I was having the same thought

  116. Boerwar

    sf
    Snap. I hadn’t read your 1315.

  117. victoria

    Boerwar

    Excellent!!

  118. Player One

    [ Just saw this tweet from George

    @Maybeee2011 @BarossaObserver @AustralianLabor appreciate the call-out, but I’m not a designer ]

    C’mon George – you’d be better than any professional! You’d bring political commitment, innovation and humour. Re-engaging a jaded electorate has got to be worth a few percentage points to Labor!

  119. WeWantPaul

    You would enjoy tidying your study I’m sure!

  120. Gecko

    Nielsen

    Oct: 2PP 52/48 Libs PPM Gillard 50-40
    Nov: 2PP 53/47 Libs PPM Gillard 51-41
    Dec: 2PP 52/48 Libs PPM Gillard 50-40

    Any guesses for this one?

  121. Bushfire Bill

    Grattan hasn’t changed much.

    * Ruddstoration.

    * It’s “the media’s” fault that coverage is weak.

    * She’ll be covering the horse race

    and this:

    blockquote>This parliament has given crossbenchers in the House of Representatives the sort of power usually only accorded to crossbench senators. It is a matter of argument whether that is the system at its most democratic or its most dysfunctional.

    That’s right a parliament that has passed 450 bills without defeat, introduced tobacco reform, health reform, priced carbon, etc etc. and has been properly elected under our Constitution may be “dysfunctional”.

    You’re allowed to have as many cross bench Senators as you like, But a few in the lower house for a change are anathema.

    She doesn’t get it. The crowd at the Conversation are relatively intelligent and well-informed (I said relatively). So what do we get?

    Mother Hen teaching her readers how to suck eggs.

    I’d like to see what happens the first time she proposes that Climate Change is more of a political problem than a scientific one.

    One refreshing difference between her gig at The Age and her new one is that comments are open… and they’re mostly pretty scathing.

    http://theconversation.edu.au/a-fresh-start-to-an-important-political-year-12118

  122. Bushfire Bill

    Grattan hasn’t changed much.

    * Ruddstoration.

    * It’s “the media’s” fault that coverage is weak.

    * She’ll be covering the horse race

    and this:

    This parliament has given crossbenchers in the House of Representatives the sort of power usually only accorded to crossbench senators. It is a matter of argument whether that is the system at its most democratic or its most dysfunctional.

    That’s right a parliament that has passed 450 bills without defeat, introduced tobacco reform, health reform, priced carbon, etc etc. and has been properly elected under our Constitution may be “dysfunctional”.

    You’re allowed to have as many cross bench Senators as you like, But a few in the lower house for a change are anathema.

    She doesn’t get it. The crowd at the Conversation are relatively intelligent and well-informed (I said relatively). So what do we get?

    Mother Hen teaching her readers how to suck eggs.

    I’d like to see what happens the first time she proposes that Climate Change is more of a political problem than a scientific one.

    One refreshing difference between her gig at The Age and her new one is that comments are open… and they’re mostly pretty scathing.

    http://theconversation.edu.au/a-fresh-start-to-an-important-political-year-12118

  123. This little black duck

    Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  124. This little black duck

    Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  125. This little black duck

    Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  126. This little black duck

    Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  127. guytaur

    @ActuallyNPH: About to go onstage for the Grammys! This is my view from backstage. http://t.co/fmeabxhU

  128. sustainable future

    [Qanda
    Tonight’s Panel
    Chris Evans – Labor Senator for Western Australia
    George Brandis – Shadow Attorney General
    Corinne Grant – Comedian & Writer
    Rachel Botsman – Author & Social Innovator
    James Paterson – Editor of the IPA Review]

    typical on two counts – 1. the IPA get even more free airtime on ABC. They and other conservative lobbyists now get about 60-70% of guest spots on the various ABC chat shows.

    2. The most left-wing person on the panel will be a comedian. The ABC rarely gets guests from left-of-centre organisations to counter their unbalanced debates.

    this panel has at least two-far right loons (Brandis and the IPA hack), one right of centre (Evans), one sort-of-left-of-centre in that she thinks it’d be nice if we shared our consumption a bit (Botsman) and one loud- mouth lefty (Grant, who I like, but isn’t really putting forward a position). If you haven’t already signed it, please sign this: http://www.change.org/petitions/abc-australia-stop-the-bias-towards-the-institute-of-public-affairs-ipa?fb_action_ids=3753653020239&fb_action_types=change-org%3Arecruit&fb_ref=__GadsfIMEaL&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%223753653020239%22%3A10150976111288250%7D&action_type_map=%7B%223753653020239%22%3A%22change-org%3Arecruit%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%223753653020239%22%3A%22__GadsfIMEaL%22%7D

  129. This little black duck

    Four at one blow. Not bad!

  130. confessions

    Ducky

    We hear you! 😆

  131. guytaur

    sf

    I have previously signed. On this occassion have sent a scathing tweet. Suggested they look to Amnesty International, Australian Conservation or the like which are hardly radical left wing. With Amnesty Philip Ruddock has been a member for years.

  132. poroti

    TLBD scores a rare double double.

  133. Musrum

    TLBD: Can you tell me again how many previous bills Tony Abbott as sponsored this parliament?

  134. This little black duck

    When too much Abbott is barely enough.

  135. zoidlord

    @Musrum/1334

    I thin Ducky just did, about 4 times 😛

  136. Leroy

    There might not be a Nielsen tonight. When I saw ABC Breakfast news last Monday, and they had someone discussing “in the papers”, whoever it was mentioned Fairfax had pushed back their polling “a couple of weeks”. If that was from that weekend (although this was not 100% clear), could mean Nielsen will only be done next weekend which would co-incide with the next Newspoll.

    This would break their past usual pattern (sometimes broken) of avoiding Newspoll weekends, but I can’t think of another time it came out on a Tuesday. Its always been Mondays.

  137. Gecko

    Musrum… she said

    Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  138. guytaur

    “@PeterLewisEMC: Essential Report out soon – slight shift to Coalition in 2PP and questions on leadership and priority issues #auspol”

  139. davidwh

    I think it’s unlikely we will have a Nielsen this week.

  140. Boerwar

    Doing the sums, according to TLBD Abbott has introduced 16 Bills while according to BB, the Government has introduced 900.

  141. Gecko

    Leroy

    Probably a good thing that its pushed (if this proves to be the case)… less noise.

  142. Boerwar

    Gerbil Alert!

  143. psyclaw

    TBLD

    Thanks.

    So the Carbon Tax Plebiscite was the only one they had the gonads to actually push to a vote.

    As I recall the cross benchers guaranteed only confidence to JG and reserved their right to pursue whatever policy they wished.

    So if Abbott had had but a miniscule of negotiation skills he could’ve worked with the cross benchers to put through whatever he wanted, so long as he could gain their cooperation.

    It was in his power to have the current parliament put through legislation emanting equally from both major parties.

    Watta waste of opportunity to nation build with bipartisanship.

    Watta waste of space Abbott is.

  144. davidwh

    Seems like Essential will be 55/45.

  145. guytaur

    @billshortenmp: How much more time does Tony Abbott spend thinking about persecuting union members rather than providing women more flexibility at work?

  146. Gecko

    BW
    😆

  147. Kinkajou

    the two rightwingers are usually halfwits…is the way I justify the Qanda panels

  148. mari

    [Leroy
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 12:32 pm | PERMALINK
    There might not be a Nielsen tonight. When I saw ABC Breakfast news last Monday, and they had someone discussing “in the papers”, whoever it was mentioned Fairfax had pushed back their polling “a couple of weeks”. If that was from that weekend (although this was not 100% clear), could mean Nielsen will only be done next weekend which would co-incide with the next Newspoll.

    This would break their past usual pattern (sometimes broken) of avoiding Newspoll weekends, but I can’t think of another time it came out on a Tuesday. Its always been Mondays.]

    Question is can they afford the polling now? Not surprised it wasn’t run as no ramp up in anti government rhetoric last week. What will run this week from Thursday on? :devil:

  149. Gorgeous Dunny

    poroti, we need you on the campaign trail.

    Anagrams like that are hilarious and killers at the same time.

    From now on to me, George Brandis will always be Raging Bedsore.

  150. Aguirre

    Musrum: You’re going to have to set your Irony Alert to a stronger setting.

  151. gloryconsequence

    Gecko – reckon a 54-46 Nielsen.

    It appears Essential is 55-45, rolling-average consolidation on the primaries from last week.

  152. Gecko

    [Question is can they afford the polling now?]

    What does a national poll cost?

  153. Kinkajou

    or to paraphrase the Czech joke ” Why do russian soldiers go around in threes? One can read one can write and one likes hanging round with intellectuals

  154. davidwh

    gloryconsequence I think Essential would have been close to 55/45 last week based on the primary numbers. All it does is confirm a slight shift back to the Coalition since Nov/Dec.

  155. mari

    [Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 12:40 pm | PERMALINK
    Question is can they afford the polling now?

    What does a national poll cost?]

    No idea but it wouldn’t come cheap wouldn’t think, eg labour costs etc

  156. Scringler

    [ Fairfax lost its readership due to the crap reportage by their journos. ]

    Victoria,

    Well, yes, but the real rot set in during the Kennett era. The Age was seen by that malignant regime as the enemy.

    It had to be destroyed. This was done by a tried-and-true method: The gentle application of a thousand cuts.

    Remember Young Wokka? Remember Conrad Black? Then came that Grand Prix mastermind, Kennett’s mate, Ron, appointed to the Fairfax board, then came the journo lackeys.

    The Age was infected by a super bug, from the top down, which proved to be resistant to old-fashioned notions like truth, integrity. That, and a series of weak editors.

    It’s now a withered cot case. The rellies have gathered to ponder the continuance of life support.

  157. gloryconsequence

    FWIW on the West Wing TV series they mentioned it cost about $60,000 US to complete one poll during an election campaign.

    Of course, it’s a TV show, but a lot of the information on the West Wing was realistic.

  158. victoria

    Scringler

    Points well made

  159. Gecko

    Mari

    They should just poll us… we’re national, very balanced and we’d be only too happy to help. :devil:

  160. guytaur

    @ABCtech: NBN Multicast: Australia’s TV distribution revolution http://t.co/yNqRZxja #NBN @Colvinius

  161. mari

    [Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 12:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari

    They should just poll us… we’re national, very balanced and we’d be only too happy to help.]

    How can we get that message through to them, cheap too 😉

    Any more pithy remarks for me to post on Twitter???

  162. Gecko

    [Of course, it’s a TV show, but a lot of the information on the West Wing was realistic.]

    So realistic Martin Sheen still gets called Mr President in the street. Great show.

  163. CTar1

    BW @ 1315

    They read exactly like ‘drafting instructions’ to OPC.

  164. guytaur

    😆

    “@OakeyMP: Happy for Gotye, and aussie music.He played my birthday party a few years ago in Port Macquarie….well,…I went and saw him on my birthday”

  165. davidwh

    I wonder what a Poll Bludger result would like like covering primaries, 2PP and leadership? It would be interesting.

  166. zoomster

    Kinkajou

    I like ‘one to keep an eye on the dangerous intellectuals’ better…

  167. gloryconsequence

    All sorts of records would be broken, david.

  168. guytaur

    “@watermelon_man: Asking John Howard’s “opinion” on the Labor Party, and running it as “news”, sums up, in a nutshell, what’s wrong with Australian media.”

  169. Musrum

    Aguirre@1351


    Musrum: You’re going to have to set your Irony Alert to a stronger setting.

    These things are so fiddly.

  170. spur212

    Essential

    ALP 45 (-1) L/NP 55 (+1)

    Voting Intention: ALP 34 (0) L/NP 48 (0) Greens 9 (-1) Others/Independents 9 (+1)

    Julia Gillard: Approve 36 (-5), Disapprove 55 (+6)

    Tony Abbott: Approve 36 (+3), Disapprove 53 (-4)

    Better PM: Julia Gillard 39 (-3), Tony Abbott 37 (+4)

    http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_130211.pdf

  171. guytaur

    “@BernardKeane: Next up: Robert Menzies slams Julia Gillard from beyond the grave – we talk exclusively with the deceased PM”

  172. CTar1

    Tlbd – ‘To be sure to be sure’.

    That was a double Irish record attempt.

    Should I notify Guinness of the feat?

  173. CTar1

    [Essential

    ALP 45 (-1) L/NP 55 (+1)]

    ModLib will have got this as well – but with 3 more decimal points of accuracy and will have predicted it 12 months ago.

  174. guytaur

    @ChasLicc: This looks promising! British MediaWatch http://t.co/taffRbTB (via @Justinian)

  175. guytaur

    @AboutTheHouse: House Comms Cte has summonsed Apple, Microsoft and Adobe to appear before IT pricing inquiry on March 22. #FairIT4oz http://t.co/HU5tHC4N”

  176. lefty e

    [ALP 45 (-1) L/NP 55 (+1)

    Voting Intention: ALP 34 (0) L/NP 48 (0) Greens 9 (-1) Others/Independents 9 (+1)

    Julia Gillard: Approve 36 (-5), Disapprove 55 (+6)

    Tony Abbott: Approve 36 (+3), Disapprove 53 (-4)

    Better PM: Julia Gillard 39 (-3), Tony Abbott 37 (+4)]

    OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?

  177. Gecko

    Mari

    [Any more pithy remarks for me to post on Twitter???]

    Goodness… hmmm let me see… pithy…

    Alert: Abbott had to repeal the MRRT because it destroyed mining. Now he has to repeal it because it isn’t.

    Or conversely insert ‘Carbon price’ and ‘Whyalla’ for something different.

    Probably already done but that’s all I can manage.

    Or maybe: ‘1950’ Coming to a ballot near you. Vote LNP Sep 14

    🙂

  178. Boerwar

    Hey, isn’t Essential headed in the wRONg direction?

  179. leone

    It’s just Essential’s eccentric polling method. They have a closed pool they

  180. Gary

    [OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?]
    Maybe because the media want to turn everything she says and does into a negative.

  181. leone

    Sorry, wrong button
    Essential have a pool of regulars they poll and the pool was formed from people who signed up online. It’s not exactly representative. All polls have issues, Essential has more than the others.

  182. Player One

    [ OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement? ]

    Just offhand, I’d say equal parts Obeid and the fact that Abbott has dropped off the radar in the past few weeks. He always polls better in his absence.

    Both of these effects should fade soon.

  183. Gecko

    [OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time.]

    Glasses, earlobes and she refuses to run away from pressers. Its obvious isn’t it?

  184. ajm

    lefty e@1378


    OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?

    Because people hear this question as “Who have you heard favourable coverage in the media about lately?”

    The weakness of polls this far out from an election IMHO is that they measure meta-opinion rather than opinion. In other words, people respond as to how they see the “vibe” (or opinion anout opinion) and that is heavily conditioned by the media.

  185. davidwh

    I’d say the PM’s approval rating has slipped because people don’t view some of the happenings over the past few weeks with the same enthusiasm as most people here. A lot has happened in a short period of time including the Peris appointment, the early election announcement, the retirements, the arrest of Thomson, ICAC and the MRRT collections confirmation. All these have likely feed into sentiment in one way or another.

  186. Doyley

    The reason the PM has gone backwards is simple.

    The way the OM reported the election date, the cabinet reshuffle and Nova Peris.

    A reaction to noise.

    Simple.

  187. sustainable future

    When Mob-lib turns up, maybe we can get the names of the liberal shadow ministers and policies better than labor’s and an explanation why. I can make it easy with a tick box response.

    “I like the LNP because:

    – they make unfunded promises and lie about having had them fully costed and audited.

    – they repeatedly show themselves to be scientifically and economically illiterate, and I don’t want elitists smart people running the country.

    – they love to fan the flames of racism and xenophobia

    – their answer to improving productivity is to cut minimum wages and working conditions, and give tax more breaks to the wealthy

    – their answer to welfare is to make it really hard for those who need it most, and really easy for those who need it least

    – they are always high tax-and-spend governments, but speak beautiful rhetoric on being the low tax and small government party

    – they have no vision for the nation other than we turn into a the US – and the tea party’s vision of the US at that.

    – they are always prepared to divide the nation for short term political advantage

    – they don’t like public education, because most of their daddies were rich enough to send them to elite private schools

    – they don’t like public health because they can afford (government subsidised) private health insurance, even though that increases the cost of health services for all.

    – they do the bidding of the miners, fossil-fuel lobby,tobacco industry, private insurers who all donate massively the the LNP (nothing corrupt about that)

    – they have no policies, so what’s there not to like?

    – the media love them, so why shouldn’t I?

  188. mari

    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:13 pm | PERMALINK
    [Mari

    Any more pithy remarks for me to post on Twitter???

    Goodness… hmmm let me see… pithy…

    Alert: Abbott had to repeal the MRRT because it destroyed mining. Now he has to repeal it because it isn’t.]

    OK done 2 retweets already, tell you you are famous even as an anonymous Poll Bludger OK see you off now for the afternoon

  189. BH

    [probably mentioned already, but the UK Guardian has been the leader in invetigative journalism leading to the outing of Rupert Murdoch’s organs as serial law breakers.]

    Only one thing wrong with this. The bloke who is setting up The Guardian here is a former FoxNews chief, isn’t he?

  190. BH

    K, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?]

    3 weeks of wall to wall feel good stories about Tone and the girls, Peta and JulieB.

    3 weeks of rotten stories for PM on Thomson, Obeid and any policy decision the Libs trash, not to mention internal scuffles.

    Last week almost every journo wrote and spoke of the alternative PM looking so much the kinder, gentler stateman.

  191. The Finnigans

    I think it is very sad that we congratulate journos for writing objective, fact based, fair & balanced articles

  192. Scringler

    [ … the IPA get even more free airtime on ABC. They and other conservative lobbyists now get about 60-70% of guest spots on the various ABC chat shows. ]

    Sustainable future,@1329

    Drives me crazy, too. Seems the ABC’s concept of “balance” is to wheel in a couple of comedians to counter the nut jobs.

    Nothing against comedians, but I find the present crop unfunny. The ABC seems to be besotted by comedians. Dunno, maybe they’re cheap.

    IPA types are presented on ABC programs as good, sane chaps. Hale fellow, well met.

    A hypothetical question – at the risk of lapsing into hyper bowl – if you had, say, Mugabe, on your TV chat show.

    Would you say, as an intro: G’day, mate. How they hangin’ …

    Or would you feel obliged to inform your audience of your guest’s history?

    At least, the ABC should have the common decency to point out to its shrinking audience that the IPA is an ultra-conservative think tank that believes the poor should die. And not litter the streets.

    Like The Age, the ABC, in its present form, is beyond hope.

    Balance? Mark Scott – I pass wind in your general direction.

  193. Laocoon

    If Abbott does not want to looked like a stunned mullet, it might be a good idea not to ask too many dixers…

  194. markjs

    Mari @1184…

    With Graeme Wood being an investor in both The Global Mail & The Australian Guardian …there is an obvious linkage. How this translates to editorial policy/linkage of stories/campaigns etc. I don’t know.

    Interesting times though 🙂

  195. Fran Barlow

    Poroti:

    [My fave saying about common sense is “Common sense is not so common.”]

    I often give a fuller version.

    That which is common, rarely amounts to sense and that which amounts to sense is most uncommon

    I can’t recall where I first heard this aphorism — I always assumed it was one of Mencken’s dicta — but oddly the only references to it on the internet (with some variations) are in my posts …

    I always like the sound of the antimetabolic, so perhaps I coined it. If someone can find a version of it that pre-dates one of my own, I’d love to be advised.

  196. John Turner

    Good that you’ve mentioned Makin, despite its large ALP margin, as the media have written it off as safe Labor.

    State ( & Fed ) Labor take the Adelaide northern suburbs for granted: ex Premier Rann (former northern suburbs MP though not resident)’ s government promised the earth, eg electrifying the Gawler railway.His ALP successor Mr Weatherill has broken this promise, though many locals will remember the shutdown of the line 3 times in the last 2 or so years (more than a year all up) twice for claimed (now redundant) pre-electrification works, the most recent to allow the groundwork for the southern suburbs rail electrification which, with the southern expressway road duplication, will deliver a huge infrastructure leg up to the south (& therefore another kick in the guts to the north).

    Do the Libs have the will (or the candidates) to draw attention to the broken promises and, if not win Makin, Wakefield and (perhaps) Port Adelaide, at least make inroads into Labor’s majorities and complacency?

  197. Mick Wilkinson

    Anyone here who has anything to do with the ALP in terms of support should be utterly ashamed at the proceedings of the NSW ICAC enquiry at present.

    Ian MacDonald is yet another ex-Labor minister crooker than a dog’s hind leg. Nuttall in Queensland, Judy Spence, Craig Thomson and MacDonald levering his bloody mate into tens of millions of dollars through blatantly obvious conflict of interest. He makes a mockery of the inquiry by absurd assertions of innocence and statistically incalculable probabilities.

    I seem to recall the same absurd explanations arising from one Craig Thomson with regards to his wallet being stolen by ‘someone’ on a wild night of prostitute consumption, finished with Union credit cards and cabcharge slips signed with ‘forged’ signatures before sneaking into Craig’s house and safely returning his wallet by the next morning.

    Your people make a mockery of the law, tell lies as if they meant nothing and use their influence routinely and endemically to use other people’s money for personal pleasure, to unfairly influence the outcome of decisions made regarding government spending (as Nuttall did) and to make their friends insanely rich.

    Anyone in this room who ever whispers about Fitzgerald should be cautioned to heed the cliche about people in glass houses. Joh Bjelke-Petersen was a boy scout compared to you lot.

    How dare you justify your pathetic party. Morally bankrupt. Why doesn’t anyone here have the balls to admit you’ve lowered the bar on the conduct of politicians in this nation that used to be known for low levels of political corruption instead of spraying bile at the ‘team’ you hate.

    Get your own house in order you bastards.

  198. gloryconsequence

    Need links to Howard saying in 2007 we should lead on climate change regardless of the rest of the world.

    Any good ones?