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Seat of the week: Makin

Labor enjoyed blowout majorities in traditionally marginal Adelaide seats at the 2010 election, but the Liberals are expressing optimism that what went up might be about to come down.

The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. The redistribution has added around 6000 voters from Port Adelaide in the west, including a newly developed Liberal-leaning area around the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes along with strongly Labor Salisbury further north. The combined effect has been to shave the Labor margin from 12.2% to 11.8%.

Makin is one of three seats which went from being Liberal seats in the final term of the Howard government to Labor seats with double-digit margins after the 2010 election, together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of safe Labor Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. Makin was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company.

Duncan’s Liberal successor was former nurse Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. The swing against Draper at the 1998 election was just 0.2% compared with a statewide swing to Labor of 4.2%, and in 2001 she bettered her 1996 margin after picking up a swing of 3.0%. Draper went on to hit serious trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had taken a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, in breach of rules limiting the benefit to spouses. She nonetheless survived by 0.9% at the 2004 election, despite suffering a swing which was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

Tony Zappia won Makin for Labor on his second attempt in 2007, and handsomely increased his margin to 12.2% in 2010. He had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely reckoned to have been victim of his own factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a factional deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia.

The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term, as he was unable to win the seat in 2004 whereas Wortley was elected from the Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, he performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since run for election with Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have backed Kevin Rudd during his February 2012 leadership challenge. His Liberal opponent is Sue Lawrie, who has variously run flower sales businesses and worked on the staff of various Liberal MPs. Lawrie has run several times at state level, most recently as an independent Liberal at the Port Adelaide by-election of February 2012.

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  • 51
    mari
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Scrolling through last night’s comments, wasn’t there a “Matthew” named in that St Johns infamous night with Alan Jones as guest speaker. Just wondering? ;)

  • 52
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Have read parts of Exit Wounds Major General John Cantwell ‘with Greg Bearup’. He fought in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

    The section in which he describes his PTS is almost unbearably painful.

    What he finds particularly hard to bear is the way in which he feels personally accountable for each and every death of one of his soldiers.

    If the rest of the book is anything like, it would, IMHO, be the most significant Australian book to come out of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars.

  • 53
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Wow. I cannot believe there is no law making it illegal to give banned substances to professional athletes!

  • 54
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Gecko

    ‘BW

    I’ll take fact over journalists opinion anytime.’

    That is more than you could say for some so-called journalists.

  • 55
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    This whole doping scandal is quite interesting.

    The way I see it, if the Crime Commission had all the evidence they need to prosecute, they would just refer the material to the police to prosecute. By going public, while at the same time claiming they cannot reveal any details, I can only imagine that they do NOT have all the evidence they need and they want to smoke folks out. Scare the hell out of everyone. Have parents tell their young boys (is it only make sportsmen?) to tell all, and then get some of the players to turn informer.

  • 56
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Boerwar:

    I’d rather hear from the interviewee, not journos, or tabloid commentators like Savva or Piers.

  • 57
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    From tne Geek on twitter

    Abboot is the man too weak & scared to do soft entertainment show interviews, wants your vote to face serious national challenges. #auspol

  • 58
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    Ml

    We can but speculate as to why they chose the road they did.

    The presence of the CEOs of many codes at the annoucement seems to mean that they they had negotiated with the codes to generate a consistent approach in which the codes were in the tent. The theme appears to be a two-pronged approach: punish the bastards and make sure that the bastardry is minimized in future.

  • 59
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    ModLib

    The ACC has referred matters to the NSW and Vic Police. What they want is a voluntarily amnesty from clubs and their players. This was assist in the clubs not having the guts ripped out of them

  • 60
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    And that too

  • 61
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    confessions

    ‘Boerwar:

    I’d rather hear from the interviewee, not journos, or tabloid commentators like Savva or Piers.’

    Then there is no point in having panels at all. I would be happy to hear from Taylor, Megagolinis and other quality panellists rather than endless politicians spinning like tops. (That said, this morning’s interview was better than most).

  • 62
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    Ratsars@6380


    Bemused @# 5870

    ”But it is absolute folly to then go and make them rock solid ‘promises’ when they are subject to revision due to all sorts of exogenous factors over which neither Treasury or the Government has any control. It is a trap for mugs.”

    You don’t get it do you.

    Unless you make that rock solid guarantee then you are not taking ownership. You are saying that you inflation figures are wrong. You are saying that your unemployment figures are wrong. You are saying that you don’t have a clue what will be spent on health education etc. You are saying that the entire budget is not worth a can of beans.

    You are saying that the figures in your budget are wrong and cannot be trusted.

    That leads to economic and political death.

    From previous thread.

    No Ratsars, it is you who do not get it.

    It is just absolute folly to make rock solid promises when there is no certainty they can be honoured.

    There are forms of words that can be used that completely take ownership of the expected outcomes without guaranteeing that what is expected to happen. And that is not being in any way tricky, it is just facing up to reality.

  • 63
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    After ruawake’s claim the other day that polls were as bad for Howard in 2004 as they are now for Gillard I had a look over Newspoll archives.

    Interestingly, the average Coalition TPP in the 12 months before the 2004 election was 49.0% (I haven’t done the ALP TPP but I think it is pretty safe to say its <49%!)

    In fact there is another interesting finding. If we look at the election year, the average in the last 6m, the last 12m and the final result we can work out how these relate to final outcome- as follows…

    Elect. last6m….last 12m…result….Coalition improvement from last 12m to election:
    2004 48.7……..49.0………52.8……3.8
    2007 44.4 ……..44.2………47.3……3.1
    2010 48.0……..46.4………49.9……3.5

    I cannot get the 2001 Newspolls for the year before the election if anyone is wondering why I didn't go back to 2001.

    So, in the last decade, the Coalition has done 3% better in the election than the average result in the polls over the previous year.

  • 64
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    Boerwar:

    Yes, if we must have panels then for goodness sakes let them be quality panels. Piers Akerman adds nothing, same with Stutchbury.

  • 65
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    Along with the finding that federally, the LNP has done >3% better in the election than the last 12m of Newspolls, the LNP also outperformed the polls in Vic, NT and ACT (plus as well as polls predicted in Qld and NSW).

  • 66
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Mega:

    The ALP has been dysfunctional for a number of years.

    OUCH!

  • 67
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Insiders talking Rudd. Of course we all know what the problem is: Rudd is still in Caucus.

    When he is finally gone from parliament, these tensions and divisions will disappear overnight.

  • 68
    Gecko
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    BW

    Then there is no point in having panels at all. I would be happy to hear from Taylor, Megagolinis and other quality panellists rather than endless politicians spinning like tops.

    There is a point to ‘expert’ panels but not listening to journalists defend their own context and editors line.

  • 69
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    confessions:

    When Rudd is gone it will be a landslide defeat for the ALP and the knives will really come out then to blame Gillard and Rudd for what they have done to the grand old ALP brand.

  • 70
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Why is Fran Kelly so much more insightful when she’s on Insiders compared to when she’s on her own show?

  • 71
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    ML

    John Mendoza has another view

    Mendoza says PMJG did not knife Rudd. He did it to himself

    http://youtu.be/ThEo_1mcbNM

  • 72
    don
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    confessions@44


    Fran:

    Sorry, what is YMMV?

    From the Urban Dictionary:

    Literally, "Your Mileage May Vary," coming from the small print in (American?) automobile commercials in the 70's and 80's. It has come to mean an acknowledgement that the opinion of the poster may not be shared by everyone.

    "I thought Weezer's later albums were better than their earlier works, but YMMV."

  • 73
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    Mega George on Insiders just making the exact point I have been trying to get through to Ratsars.

    You don’t take a projected surplus and turn it into a promise.

    Simple.

  • 74
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    ‘When he is finally gone from parliament, these tensions and divisions will disappear overnight.’

    It won’t matter then because the ALP will be in opposition.
    (probably for a freakin’ long time)

  • 75
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    “erratic, unpredictable and chaotic”….hmmmm, sounds familiar!

    victoria:

    I understand you like the idea of Gillard just happening to be walking along the corridor when the Prime Ministership just accidentally became vacant and she graciously agreed to take one for the team and take the job.

    Its not as though she is ambitious is she?
    She didn’t have a speech ready 2 weeks earlier, did she?
    Its not as though she sent her followers out to politically assassinate Rudd to prevent him from taking the job back last year, is is?

    She is such an angel, and Abbott is such a devil, I know, I know…yet they are neck and neck on preferred PM :devil:

  • 76
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Thanks don.

  • 77
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    ‘For them #Ruddstoration Pussycats – OK, KRudd “look at moi” in love with himself, then leaked against himself & now it appears he also stabbed himself as PM. Sad really’

    That’s not what is sad.

  • 78
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    ML

    You would be wrong if you think that. I see two major parties, and what one is currently offering in govt. i will make my assessments based on that. Nothing more. As it stands now, the Liberal and Nationals are offering sweet f all for the average voter.

  • 79
    Tricot
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Just as an observation why are so many wasting time and energy on the young conservative tyro who blew in here a day or so ago?

    He laces half-truths, insults and taunts into his off-the-top-of his head comments.

    I think DavidWH was very patient in his comments, but to see thoughtful comments in response to his shooting from the mouth comments is like throwing strawberries to the swine.

    I will indulge one stupid point he made about ‘school halls and canteens’ in WA.

    In many schools I have had reason to go into around the Perth metropolitan area, I have not actually come across one hall, or one canteen. They are usually specialist teaching areas and for schools a once-in-20 years improvement. Most were built on time and on budget.

    Given that the money provide was to stave off the likely fall in investment in other industries at the time of the GFC (which according to our Liberal friends never happened or whose impact was over emphasised)it was a master stoke and the thing that really bugged the Liberals is that they did not think of it themselves.

    These buildings will always be associated with Kevin Rudd and good on him at the time.

  • 80
    poroti
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    mari

    Maybe this was our Matt ? From 2005 but he may have dropped a couple of years off his alleged age.

    Tomorrow's Liberal leaders have issues with gays, greenies, young mums, Malcolm Fraser

    Matt Eggleston, the West Australian Young Liberal president, calling on Malcolm Fraser to resign his Liberal Party life membership. Eggleston, wearing a suit and tie, his hair carefully brushed back, looks like a figure from the 1930s. He cries out various charges: “He is without doubt one of the worst prime ministers Australia has ever had!”; “He did nothing!”; “I call the Fraser years the lost years!” Bells ring as Eggleston exceeds his time limit. Undeterred, he keeps going, calling for Fraser’s resignation due to his “abominable disloyalty!”

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/tomorrows-liberal-leaders-have-issues-gays-greenies-young-mums-malcolm-fraser-and-each-other-young-l

  • 81
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Journos are STILL talking up the Abbott brain fart which he has now stepped away from.

    Which means we have to ask again: is it a policy, a discussion paper, a draft, a talking point?

  • 82
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    ML

    Abbott is even too scared to go on a morning breakfast show. You know how ridiculous that is. Someone who is putting himself forward to lead this nation, is scared to go on breakfast tv. And he has forbidden Turnbull to take his place. Now that is frickin nuts

  • 83
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    I completely agree with you that the Opposition have offered nothing substantial to argue for election, just plenty of evidence to vote against the government.

    I would not argue with you, or anyone else arguing the deficiencies of LNP policy work. However, that is completely normal for Oppositions at this stage.

    Why I find some posts here absolutely amazing is the rose coloured glasses when it comes to Gillard. She can make mistake after mistake and some here spin furiously to try and convince us she has never done anything wrong.

    HINT: This is why you have no cut through with the public!

    To quote the PM, stop writing crap

  • 84
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    The little lemon with glasses add did for Rudd.

    The coalition are brilliant when it comes to killer political tactics.

    The first time I saw that add I thought Rudd was gone.
    The first time the ALP saw it they collectively shit themselves. Ridicule; it’ll work everytime.

    Except if the ALP ever decide to go after Abbott, you know, to stop him winning, then it probably won’t work.

  • 85
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    ML

    As I said yesterday there is a saying wtte

    if anyone saw what went into making a sausage or a law, no one would ever eat another sausage or obey another law ever again.

    What you consider mistakes are part of the process. Get over yourself.

  • 86
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    The last thing the ALP should do is attack Abbott until the election campaign starts.

    Kill him off politically now and you get his replacement who will take even more seats off you (pretty much irrespective of who it is).

  • 87
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Confessions: It’s a red herring. While they’re talking about that, they can plausibly ignore other stuff.

  • 88
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    I’d rather a PM that makes mistakes with how things play in the media, than a PM that screws the country up badly on things that actually matter.

  • 89
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    ML

    Lets see who they would replace Abbott with. They are all frickin useless and that includes Turnbull.

  • 90
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    As I said victoria, spin and “she hath done nothing wrong”.

    Do you realise that if you managed to admit that she has made some mistakes it would not actually mean the end of life as we know it :)

  • 91
    mari
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    [poroti
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:50 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    Maybe this was our Matt ? From 2005 but he may have dropped a couple of years off his alleged age.

    Tomorrow's Liberal leaders have issues with gays, greenies, young mums, Malcolm Fraser

    Matt Eggleston, the West Australian Young Liberal president, calling on Malcolm Fraser to resign his Liberal Party life membership. Eggleston, wearing a suit and tie, his hair carefully brushed back, looks like a figure from the 1930s. He cries out various charges: “He is without doubt one of the worst prime ministers Australia has ever had!”; “He did nothing!”; “I call the Fraser years the lost years!” Bells ring as Eggleston exceeds his time limit. Undeterred, he keeps going, calling for Fraser’s resignation due to his “abominable disloyalty!”

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/tomorrows-liberal-leaders-have-issues-gays-greenies-young-mums-malcolm-fraser-and-each-other-young-l

    You are brilliant quite possibly? BTW What a lovely lot of specimens these are, have any of them surfaced since? except of course young Matt on PB? :devil:

  • 92
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard has flagged workplace relations changes to extend the rights of parents returning from maternity leave.

    Speaking before leaving New Zealand this morning, Ms Gillard said there will be announcements this week stemming from the review of the Fair Work Act.

    Excellent. A policy debate on IR – the coalition’s weakness.

  • 93
    Andrew
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Whilst I still do not believe that PM Gillard can win the next election with the rabid OM so much against HER (and it is her, not just Labor), the naming of the date was a masterstroke.

    Since then we have had:
    1. increased scrunity on Abbott, on policy and costings
    2. TWO leaks (whereas previously we had none- Abbott’s NPC speech issue, and the troppo policy
    3. Signs of panic- Abbott withdraws from Today, doesnt let Turnbull do it (what is going on there??), hastily walks away from Troppo, increased paranoia re: twitter
    4. OM running two negative articles on Abbott- Troppo and his support for the accused paedophile priest.

    You do have to credit Credlin with her handling of Abbott but you would have to say; the prospective PM of Australia SHOULD NOT NEED HANDLING. He should be of the character and behaviour befitting of the office.

    As for the paedophile priest issue, Abbott assured us that Fisher was different from Thomson because of the NATURE of the offences. Well, you cant get worse nature of offences then child sex offences, so surely Abbott’s judgement is worse then PM Gillard’s?

    And another point, Labor has made crucial errors on the economy since the day after Keating lost. They refused to defend the legacy, attack Howard on the economy when in opposition (maybe something about not wanting to destroy confidence, and then when Rudd came in, not attacking the Howard years. So now we have the ridiculous situation with the opposition, this rabble, leading by over 20 % on economic management.

    Matty here gives a perfect example of the thinking of the conservatives- knows nothing (his own admission) on the NBN but it is sure it is bad and Labor will spend too much on it. And doesnt even realise how faulty is argument is?

    The PM IMO needs to directly attack the second opposition- the OM. She has nothing to lose. The hysterical coverage of the election date announcement and the resignations, show they cannot get any worse.

    She needs to bang on about the SCOREBOARD- maybe have an actual scoreboard- stunts are Ok for Abbott after all. No of pieces of legislation passed re; blocked by Abbott. BISONS. Amazing how the opposition aided and abetted by the OM can call black white.

    And at the end of day, do you really think the opposition is looking like the relaxed and comfortable frontrunners that they are supposed to be? They know they cant compete on policy and have a deeply unpopular leader.

    The polls are difficult as indicators at present. whereas most governments would be more likely to lose with this polling at this stage, the incumbent has never been against a more unpopular opposition leader. This is the elephant in the room

  • 94
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    Aguirre:

    It’s like deliberate spin for the coalition.

  • 95
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    How typical. Kelly and Mega end with observations about policy stuff. Savva ends with a personal snipe at the PM.

  • 96
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    ML

    You should know about spin. That is all the coalition and its sycophants do. Spin spin spin

  • 97
    Aguirre
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    Confessions:

    More of a smokescreen in my eyes. The idea is to talk about this fiasco as if it really is a policy position, whilst shying anyway from anything that might make look like a policy position. And then later on to make the bland assertion that Abbott has been unrolling policy: “Look at the plan for Northern Australia. Yes, it was withdrawn for the moment, but it’s a clear demonstration Coalition commitment to policy work, it’s a Big Picture proposal, and we’ll be seeing a lot more of that…”

    Blan blah blah.

  • 98
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Savva has not moved on from the time in which she was a Liberal (Costello) spinner. At all. She does it with personal bile.

    Mega got it right, though. This will be two election campaigns in a row in which Labor’s leadership tensions will be unresolved.

    As long as Rudd is in the Party Room there will be no mercy on this front, because he has no mercy. He does not care about the national impact (the loss of Government). All he cares about is himself. The reasonable, rational people in the Labor Party have yet to work out a way of getting the sociopaths out of the Party altogher. Because sociopaths never do stop of their own accord.

  • 99
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    I notice that the pundits ignored the real story about Troppo Tony – who leaked; and why.

    If it had been Labor they would have gone into a feeding frenzy.

  • 100
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, February 10, 2013 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    I did appreciate the way Insiders moved from Rhinehardt speaking to Abbott speaking and how the latter appears to be a puppet of the former.

    One of them also mentioned that the idea of the reast of Australia subsidising wealthy miners was, wtte, outrageous. But not Savva who reckons it was all about tropical medicine.

    Yeah.

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