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Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings show a substantial weakening in Julia Gillard’s position, while the two-party preferred result ticks over a point in the Coalition’s favour.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.

UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

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  • 1
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    I make no comment. The poll speaks for itself.

  • 2
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    am i first

  • 3
    jeffemu
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    bummer

  • 4
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    Delimiter ‏@delimiterau

    R18+ fail: Qld bans God of War: Ascension: http://bit.ly/14MzlZ3

  • 5
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time.

    Glasses, earlobes and she refuses to run away from pressers. Its obvious isn’t it?

    Luckily this critical time is offset by 60 more polls, a budget, future major legislation, 6 more RBA meetings, 7 months of national data, debates and an election campaign.

  • 6
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    Essential – ho hum……..

    Eagerly awaiting the arrival of the Guardian Australia and hopefully Lenore and Murpharoo can forensically dissect policy from all sides. :)

  • 7
    ajm
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    lefty e@1378 in previous thread

    OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?

    Because people hear this question as “Who have you heard favourable coverage in the media about lately?”

    The weakness of polls this far out from an election IMHO is that they measure meta-opinion rather than opinion. In other words, people respond as to how they see the “vibe” (or opinion about opinion) and that is heavily conditioned by the media.

  • 8
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    @Toorak/1

    I wouldn’t count chickens before they hatch.

  • 9
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

    I’d say the PM’s approval rating has slipped because people don’t view some of the happenings over the past few weeks with the same enthusiasm as most people here. A lot has happened in a short period of time including the Peris appointment, the early election announcement, the retirements, the arrest of Thomson, ICAC and the MRRT collections confirmation. All these have likely feed into sentiment in one way or another.

  • 10
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

    I know anecdotes do not a poll make, but this poll is not matching what I am hearing here in my safe lib seat.

  • 11
    sustainable future
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    When Mob-lib turns up, maybe we can get the names of the liberal shadow ministers and policies better than labor’s and an explanation why. I can make it easy with a tick box response.

    “I like the LNP because:

    - they make unfunded promises and lie about having had them fully costed and audited.

    - they repeatedly show themselves to be scientifically and economically illiterate, and I don’t want elitists smart people running the country.

    - they love to fan the flames of racism and xenophobia

    - their answer to improving productivity is to cut minimum wages and working conditions, and give tax more breaks to the wealthy

    - their answer to welfare is to make it really hard for those who need it most, and really easy for those who need it least

    - they are always high tax-and-spend governments, but speak beautiful rhetoric on being the low tax and small government party

    - they have no vision for the nation other than we turn into a the US – and the tea party’s vision of the US at that.

    - they are always prepared to divide the nation for short term political advantage

    - they don’t like public education, because most of their daddies were rich enough to send them to elite private schools

    - they don’t like public health because they can afford (government subsidised) private health insurance, even though that increases the cost of health services for all.

    - they do the bidding of the miners, fossil-fuel lobby,tobacco industry, private insurers who all donate massively the the LNP (nothing corrupt about that)

    - they have no policies, so what’s there not to like?

    - the media love them, so why shouldn’t I?”

    what have I missed?

  • 12
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    Now hang on, people. Her approval has gone backwards this week. Since last Monday. All we’ve had since then is a couple of days of Parliament and a crisis in sport.

    I don’t think there are easy explanations that cover it. It looks very odd to me. Especially seeing approval ratings going all over the place while PV remains virtually static.

  • 13
    Martin B
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

    I repeat my suggestion from an earlier thread, in answer to the question “Why does the ALP have a recent record of deficit budgets?”:

    Because Australia has never trusted the Liberals in difficult times.

  • 14
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    what have I missed?

    Their stupid.

  • 15
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    Its interesting to look at the issues. ALP only leads on industrial realtions, with the nominal lead on education too small to matter. They have actually closed the gap a little on managing the economy over the last 12 months, but still way behind.

    GRNs well in front on managing environment and climate change: which suggests to me they have no problem at all with their ‘branding’, anothr reason why unlike DEMS theyre most unlikely to disappear over time.

  • 16
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    Oops

    They’re stupid.

  • 17
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    The sentiment I hear a lot is that while people don’t have a lot of faith in Abbott they have less faith in the current government. It has been that way for a long time. I think many people are still undecided regardless of how they vote in the polls.

    I don’t think it is beyond recovery for the government but it will be really tough to reverse that sentiment.

  • 18
    victoria
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    Aguiree

    The polls are matching the narrative. It is hardly surprising

  • 19
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    Fatima Measham ‏@foomeister

    I’m still relentlessly optimistic that Abbott will not become PM – he’s been given a lot of rope. But I hope it’s a minority gov if he does.
    Expand
    2m ابراهي Jon Underwood ابراهي Jon Underwood ‏@Prohairetic

    @foomeister given enough time. Detest whole ‘Divine Mandate’ thing he clearly believes he has. I’ll probably even vote ALP (vomit) bec that.
    Expand

    1m Fatima Measham Fatima Measham ‏@foomeister

    @Prohairetic Oh gawd I’m so on the same page though I’ve so many reasons not to vote Labor.

  • 20
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    The last fortnight of polls basically says – we don’t like Abbott at all, but will put up with him because we like Labor less.

  • 21
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

    Lefty e

    Its interesting to look at the issues. ALP only leads on industrial realtions, with the nominal lead on education too small to matter. They have actually closed the gap a little on managing the economy over the last 12 months, but still way behind.

    GRNs well in front on managing environment and climate change: which suggests to me they have no problem at all with their ‘branding’, anothr reason why unlike DEMS theyre most unlikely to disappear over time.

    A perfect example of the lack of public engagement at this time.

  • 22
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    Where’s this Obama strategy they were talking about?

    Go after Abbott. Hard. Now. With TV spots and web media buys.

    Now.

  • 23
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    @davidwh/17

    I don’t think the polls are convincing enough for me either way.

    People like my parents do not like Abbott in QLD.

  • 24
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Simon ‏@Jovianshadow

    YES! RT @lyndalcurtis: The HOR inquiry into IT pricing has summonsed Apple, Microsoft and Adobe to appear before it on the 22nd of March.

  • 25
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Well, it sall shows the sell needed:

    - Averted GFC through policies the LNP opposed (and note here austerity and cuts LEAD TO MORE DEBT, looking at you Newman http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/02/uk-shows-how-austerity-policies-lead-to-more-borrowing-and-debt.html
    - low unemployment
    - low interest rates
    - Abbott = workchoices

    Then add: CO2 price leading to cheaper electricity
    NBN to save regional australi’s bacon.

    If you like these things, vote for them. Forget personalities.

  • 26
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    sustainable future I think the predominant reason/policy folks are preferring the Coalition over Labor is because the Coalition isn’t Labor. It can’t be because of policy comparisons because we know so little about Coalition policies.

  • 27
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    The Labor Campaign hasn’t really started yet, I’d wager mid-year.

  • 28
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    @bengrubb: The ATO uses Java. Apple blocked Java. Now there are problems with Mac users that need to manually update http://t.co/y3tjhcHG

    ATO needs to move to HTLM5. Apple does not use Java because of security reasons

  • 29
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    “@markjs1: Has Abbott got a problem with women? …Well, he’s sure got a problem with Leigh Sales & Lisa Wilkinson …he’s terrified of them!! #auspol”

  • 30
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

    gloryconsequence

    Where’s this Obama strategy they were talking about?

    Go after Abbott. Hard. Now. With TV spots and web media buys.

    Now.

    Keep ya powder dry my friend… its a long game… nothing much will change until the Budget and Gonski legislation on the 1st of July… that’s the kick-off date as far as I can tell.

  • 31
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord – I was more referring to the strategy Obama used. Go hard after opponent, early, to set the narrative

  • 32
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

    The Labor Campaign hasn’t really started yet, I’d wager mid-year.

    Yes, but cows and market day.

    Economic messaging a priority. You cant beat low unemploment and low interest rates for good news.

    Say it ” we have low unemployment, and low interest rates”. It will help.

  • 33
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

    I await the state breakdowns with interest. I suspect the ALP vote has collapsed in NSW.

  • 34
    Stephen T
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:42 pm | Permalink

    Toorak Toff – There is 3 certainties in life death, taxes and Gillard’s execution on September the 14th. This Labor/Greens/Windsor/Dopeshott opps sorry Oakeshott freak show must come to an end it’s killing this great nation.

  • 35
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord I know and work with a lot of people who are Coalition supporters, most much more so that I am, and very few of them like Abbott. In fact I find it impossible to identify a single person who thinks Abbott is our best choice for PM. I am pretty sure most will still vote for the Coalition regardless.

  • 36
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

    CTar1,

    Someone else holds the record

    http://fairytales4u.com/story/sevenat.htm

  • 37
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:44 pm | Permalink

    @Stephen T/34

    No that’s not the saying, and stop posting complete nonsense and ripping off the original saying.

  • 38
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    I don’t think it is beyond recovery for the government but it will be really tough to reverse that sentiment.

    I agree with you!

  • 39
    poroti
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    G’day Matty D.

  • 40
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    OC

    I suspect the ALP vote has collapsed in NSW.

    I bet you are right no pun intended.

  • 41
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Essential don’t do state break-ups do they? We really need that Nielsen.

  • 42
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    Toorak Toff – There is 3 certainties in life death, taxes and Gillard’s execution on September the 14th. This Labor/Greens/Windsor/Dopeshott opps sorry Oakeshott freak show must come to an end it’s killing this great nation.

    “Er….it’s the vibe, your honour”

    This is Joe Hockey style. Whats your actual point? You have identified no issues.

    Is it the low unemployment, or the low interest rates that are really shitting you? Or perhaps the NBN, which every regional coaltion backbhencher cant wait to get in their electorate?

    Or is it the CO2 price, which led to absolutely NONE of the consequences foreshadowed by Abbott, and reduced emission 8.6% over the last six months? Or is the paid maternity leave?

    Im interested.

  • 43
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

    Be hilarious if Abbott lost after all this hype.

    Romney style.

  • 44
    Stephen T
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord, make no apologies in stating the bleedin’ obvious.

  • 45
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    Romney was in the game for about three weeks of a 12 month campaign.

    Abbott has led for more than 12 months.

    No comparison.

  • 46
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    to be expected. i would rather the bad polls now, and pick up as we go than the reverse.

  • 47
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    Davidwh

    ‘Sentiment’ for polls. ‘Votes’ for elections. There is a difference and I’ll wager they are polls apart. :wink:

  • 48
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    @zackster: A highly digestible account of the circumstances in which the PM’s accuser Nick Styant-Browne left Slater & Gordon: http://t.co/G7fDF6VD

  • 49
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    I think it is very sad that we congratulate journos for writing objective, fact based, fair & balanced articles

  • 50
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    Davidwh

    ‘Sentiment’ for polls. ‘Votes’ for elections. There is a difference and I’ll wager they are polls apart

    Certainly but how much sentiment goes into our voting decisions gecko?

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