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Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings show a substantial weakening in Julia Gillard’s position, while the two-party preferred result ticks over a point in the Coalition’s favour.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.

UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

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  • 51
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    QT now

  • 52
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    On the other hand, Abbott’s a bit of a weirdo. High risk punt. A bit nuts.

    Know what I mean? A bit Latho.

  • 53
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    lefty e

    I think Mark Latham is sane and a pillar of reliability compared to Abbott

  • 54
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    Tlbd

    Someone else holds the record

    If you can add some Danish fairy tales to the Irish checking and may be some northern Russian folklore we’ll get you in the book.

    No worries.

  • 55
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    @MWhalan: @greenat16 Kathy Jackson’s husband Jeff had similar charges on his credit card which he claimed was faked. http://t.co/wLUdX5w2

  • 56
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

    “@lyndalcurtis: RT @abcnewsACT: Jeremy Hanson has been been elected as the new leader of the Canberra Liberals.”

  • 57
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

    @Stephen T/44

    I doubt that Benjamin Franklin would accept that apology at all, since you know, Coalition seem to hate facts and science.

  • 58
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    PMJG is wearing a three piece open weave ecru or dark cream skirt/camisole/jacket suit. Collarless but with a soft curve small lapel and faux pockets tot the side of the bust it is well fitted smart and very chic.

    There is a prize for people not watching the telecast to guess the colour of the LOTO’s tie. The prize is a free download of the Lib’s aspiration doc. The consolation prize is two free downloads.

  • 59
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    JGPM is not breaking stride. Now giving Workchoices another serve.

  • 60
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

    Dixer from Hockey

  • 61
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

    Puff,

    The Dep LotO is looking very black.

  • 62
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

    TLBD

    In mourning because PMJG will not chat with her?

  • 63
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    Mr Swan is being unusually lucid.

  • 64
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    The member for North Sydney has a definite shaped cut to his suits now. Very Presidential.

    Swanny has mixed light grey dark grey and salon in a tie that says confidence; neat, striking but still conservative.

    Bishop the Younger must be reading PB, she is in black today. With her colouring of hair and sallow face unfortunately it does not carry really well on TV.

  • 65
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

    Davidwh

    Certainly but how much sentiment goes into our voting decisions gecko?

    Not a lot. Party loyalty is stronger, particularly if there’s a grassroot fight. Those that swing consider the hip pocket… the future for their kids… and the economics. On all these issues the ALP have by far the better story. Australians are conservative by nature and LNP controlled states will also assist a federal ALP counter. It will simply come down to that in my opinion. I’m by no means the oracle … but that’s my logic and always has been.

  • 66
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    Opposition riffing on the theme of ‘certainty’ today. last week was ‘trust’.

    They’re asking dumb questions, but all they want to do is create the impression that the ALP are altering policy in the lead-up to the election, whilst the Coalition are settled in what they’re presenting.

  • 67
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    If Workchoices is dead, buried and cremated it is getting an unusually strong flogging.

    JGPM, Swannie, Bill S.

  • 68
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Shorten’s onto it.

  • 69
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Shorten has gone for a Liberal-type tie, shiny blue with tiny white spots.

    There is not as much colour on the gov’t benches today. Are they all in ‘shoulders to the wheel’ mode?

  • 70
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    “@LatikaQT: Shorten – I love it when Tony Abbott reminds he’s workers best friend – with friends like these you don’t need enemies. #qt”

  • 71
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    Yellow for Mesma. Will she last the distance?

  • 72
    Laocoon
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    Shorten is very feisty today

  • 73
    Matty D
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    Back to the poll, why are so many of you living in denial, and won’t admit that Labor is headed for a landslide loss?

  • 74
    Laocoon
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    Ian McFarlane gets a question!

  • 75
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    The lady with the curly hair two rows back on the gov’t benches has a nice white jacket with green/grey camisole and it catches the camera perfectly.

    As does the hot pink number on the Oppo benches. And no, I am not talking about the poodle.

  • 76
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    Actually, that was a spectacularly dumb question by McFarlane. Just asking for a schooling.

  • 77
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    Back to the poll, why are so many of you living in denial, and won’t admit that Labor is headed for a landslide loss?

    Because unlike you we have a brain. Ask mum, she’ll help explain it.

  • 78
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    Michelle Rowland.

  • 79
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    Pyne needs a new suit, that one looks wrinkled when he stands up.

  • 80
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    Yellow for Mr Pyne.

  • 81
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Pyne needs a new suit, that one looks wrinkled when he stands up.

    Is he nude?

  • 82
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Good lord. Thomson’s up.

  • 83
    Laocoon
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Taken all the way to Q 3 to get the first POO from Pyne. Is this a record :evil:

  • 84
    Matty D
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Gecko

    Because unlike you we have a brain. Ask mum, she’ll help explain it.

    A brain that ignores 2 years of landslide polling figures?

  • 85
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    Wow Mari that would be good for you :)

  • 86
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    The member for Dobell.is doing pin-stripe and blue tie. Albo has a grey suit. white short and a striped tie whose predominate colour is dried blood.

  • 87
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    Gecko,

    Hard to tell.

  • 88
    poroti
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    It’s his Shar Pei suit .

  • 89
    Matty D
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    Michelle Rowland.

    Yes, the one on an 0.88 margin, out on her arse next election.

  • 90
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    matty d

    Here is a hint.

    Polls are a blurry snapshot of the past.

    The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

  • 91
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    A brain that ignores 2 years of landslide polling figures?

    Yes. (that’s the opposite of ‘no’ if you’re having trouble)

  • 92
    Player One
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

    Back to the poll, why are so many of you living in denial, and won’t admit that Labor is headed for a landslide loss?

    Ummm …. how about because only a fool would predict a “landslide” this far out from the actual election?

  • 93
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    The Speaker is sporting a fashionable scarfe.

    I can’t comment much on the oppos today because they are getting very little screen time. In fact for a side ahead in the polls they are as quiet as mice.

  • 94
    Aguirre
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    Well that joke fell flat.

  • 95
    Matty D
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    1. My point is that many of you are actually ignoring the polls.

    2. The polls have been like this since early 2011. What’s going to suddenly change now?

  • 96
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Tony Smith will take no more part in QT.

  • 97
    Laocoon
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    First one kicked out (Casey)

  • 98
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Bronnie Bishop cannot stop laughing

  • 99
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Someone from oppos has five bucks to go buy himself a coffee. He has been sent out on 94a to go get it too.

  • 100
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Gee, it’s OK the rich of LNP to sneer at $5.50 for every man, woman and child of Australia #QT

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