tip off

Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year joins the chorus in showing a big slump for Julia Gillard and her government.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).

We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.

UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.

5068
  • 1
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Ahhh dear.

  • 2
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    Reposting from last thread:

    BK@1258

    Abbott +9 on PPM.

    What can one say?

    That we knew this was likely – BB (among others) predicted it. And that it is 6 months or so till the real campaign starts.

    Do you seriously believe Abbott – a man of zero substance – can sustain a 7 month election campaign?

    I don’t – and I think Gillard’s plan all along has been to make this plain to the electorate. Abbott has to spend the next 7 months in electioneering mode, with nothing in the way of policies. All Labor has to do for the next 6 months or so is govern effectively while Abbott is busting a gut trying to make his flimsy brainfarts look like policy.

    Then, when it is plain as a pikestaff that the LNP are so full of hot air that they will have to start buying carbon offsets just to keep their campaign going, Labor can begin the real election campaign.

    Lots of water to go under the bridge tonight. And (with luck) perhaps a few bodies as well – like those who continue to white-ant the ALP.

  • 3
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    Eagerly await the state break-ups.

  • 4
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    All Labor has to do for the next 6 months or so is govern effectively while Abbott is busting a gut trying to make his flimsy brainfarts look like policy.

    Pure bollocks.

  • 5
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    So ~50% polled don’t/want change in Lib/ALP leaders… but ~60%+ prefer Rudd/MT? Yep, pretty scientific that polling business is

  • 6
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    A bump in the road, time to keep on keeping on. I am not going to panic but will hunker down while the trolls go nuts on here.

  • 7
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    (Repost)

    Sorry to hear about the 56/44 Neilsen but not surprised. The last week has been all focused on Labor, and in a bad way. Meanwhile Abbott had almost no scrutiny at all, again.

    I remain very concerned. The budget is in May, discussion of it will occupy June, and July August will be largely the campaign proper. That leaves only about 8 weeks to influence voters about Abbott’s nature before events overtake. Abbott was not a bad campaigner in 2013, and will have 50% of the press supporting him as well. The campaign period will be too late to overtake him.

    Unless we want an economically illiterate, misogynistic, fundamentalist, speedo-wearing megalomaniac as PM, Labor must clean out the NSW right faction and focus on Abbott and nothing else immediately. A change to Rudd will not solve this; IMO the NSW legacy would swamp him too. Plus the look of panic and NSW Labor from another leader change wold be disastrous.

    Today’s manufacturing announcement was well meaning, but again insufficient. They are a small share of total workers. Focus on Abbott’s misogyny ( while telling the Labor catholic right to button their lips for six months) and you stand to pick up a much larger share of 51% of all voters.

  • 8
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    gloryconsequence@4



    All Labor has to do for the next 6 months or so is govern effectively while Abbott is busting a gut trying to make his flimsy brainfarts look like policy.


    Pure bollocks.

    Yes, I agree it is unlikley he could do that – but he has to try!

  • 9
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Pretty likely that the arse has fallen out of the ALP vote in the home of the Rum Corps

  • 10
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Time for the true believers to stick fat as they say.
    If I was the executive I would be putting an ultimatum to Rudd – tow the line or you are dis endorsed.
    Probably wouldn’t stop him but a line has to be drawn.
    Unless he is prepared to shut up or actively campaign for the party and with JG he needs to go. Damn the consequences.

  • 11
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    From last thread

    When Labor kills the Coaltion on economy, education, health and the NBN the LNP agenda folds.

    There is only so long LNP will get away from running from policy. We also do not know how soft the result is. That being what is said before a campaign and when a campaign starts.

    We know most do not pay attention to politics until then. We also know people are likely to say they are for the opposition to scare the government to get more results.

    The narrowing is not a figment and will happen come the campaign. As even Abbott concedes when he states complacency is the enemy.

  • 12
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    If anyone makes any of the following comments, I will kill them

    1. This is good for Labor because it will make people think Abbott could really be PM and that will wake them up

    2. Gillard is playing rope a dope with Abbott

    3. Gillard is playing the long game, Abbot is playing the short game. This is to be expected.

  • 13
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord it’s probably just an acknowledgement that while others are preferred its probably getting too late to change leaders.

  • 14
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    As “nadirs” go, this one ain’t so bad. I’ve seen a lot worse back in the nightmare days.

    Hold onto your seats, it’s a bumpy ride.

    The bottoming out (or close to it) has probably occurred, and then the upswing begins again.

  • 15
    BK
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    I’m with you, Puff!

  • 16
    bluegreen
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Diog

    I don’t think I could make any of those statements

  • 17
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes@12


    If anyone makes any of the following comments, I will kill them

    1. This is good for Labor because it will make people think Abbott could really be PM and that will wake them up

    2. Gillard is playing rope a dope with Abbott

    3. Gillard is playing the long game, Abbot is playing the short game. This is to be expected.

    I agree with 2. But anyone could play rope a dope with Abbott.

    As for 3, this was expected.

  • 18
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    It seems the Australian voters are a school of white-bait which flinches and turns at the slightest pressure. If they do not watch out they will be in the Murdoch super-trawler’s nets.

  • 19
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    What about “game changer”, “peak Abbott” or “tipping point”?

  • 20
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll predictions anyone? They’re coming out tonight as well apparently.

  • 21
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    same as the other polls. Maybe slightly worse due to the “bouncy” effect.

  • 22
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    guytaur:

    It’s hard to predict Newspoll of late. Who knows?!

  • 23
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    I’ve also got them on my bingo list.

    The last thing that is good for Labor is for people to spend their time polishing the turd when they could spend the time better changing things.

    If you keep doing what you’ve always done, you are going to get what you’ve always got.

  • 24
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    “@MrDenmore: You had better start saying the rosary, because after September 14 that will be the sum of all knowedge.”

    “@mpesce: @MrDenmore Now, now, the Tridentine Mass will also be permitted. In Latin, naturally.”

  • 25
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Fess,
    Probably it will be a bad poll too.

    Everyone is grumpy. They just got their Xmas credit card statements, that pay-nothing-until-March deal/trap.

  • 26
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Maybe Newspoll wil show a swing towards labor.
    I would like to see that if only to mess with the pea brains of the MSM.

  • 27
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll is just as likely to swing back to 54/46 so not game to guess anything.

  • 28
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    It is true that the sports thing is hurting Labor at moment. This will continue until the arrests start happening.

    Then the sports broadcastsrs will see the reality that has been said on offsiders.

  • 29
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    If Newspoll shows a swing to Labor it’ll put News Ltd in a bind – report their own poll, or their rival’s.

  • 30
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Henry

    Given last Newspoll was 56-44 there is a better than even chance there will be a swing to Labor. Which would reduce stress levels around here a lot.

  • 31
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    44/56 is reasonable given the avalanche of negative news over the last 2 weeks.

    ICAC hearing
    Mining Tax Beatup
    Sports corruption handling
    Rudd campaign

    can it be sustained for another 7 months?

  • 32
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    The 2PP in the Nielsen isn’t the most worrying aspect I wouldn’t have thought.

  • 33
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Good evening all

  • 34
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    How about we add ‘Rudd’ and ‘leadership’ to that word list?

    Mordor and the LNP have put everything into panicking the ALP into a change, and I, being the stubborn, contrary bytch that I be, wouldn’t give them what they want to save my life.

    They can all go and put swimmer-crabs to their testicles.

  • 35
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    my Labor supporting wife officially wrote off Labor today at this years election. “there stuffed” now this was offered up un solicited because im not allowed to bring up politics at home with her because i vote lib :)

  • 36
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    ML

    Enjoy the gloating while you can.

  • 37
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Food for Thought.

    “@GCobber99: LNP POlling bad in WA NT by Election wipe out for Libs http://t.co/qBzUj0oZ now MSM polls say diff polls crap”

  • 38
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Glory the worst aspect is that at 30% primary vote Labor has lost most of what took them months to claw back. It’s a very serious situation.

  • 39
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Why would Mod Lib gloat when s/he is vehemently opposed to an Abbott govt?

    Surely Mod Lib would be looking at these polling figures with similar horror to you and I?

  • 40
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    You would think so. However not going on past behaviour.

  • 41
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    @mpesce: The Guardian has tied the horse meat trade to the international arms trade. Not making this up. http://t.co/u4j731ZD

  • 42
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
    Good evening all

    Plenty of grist for you to chew on tonight Modlib.

  • 43
    Matty D
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Suck it up lefties, suck it up lefties, whilst myself and my fellow Conservatives to a VERY merry dance.

  • 44
    ajm
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    I always thought the Nuttall corruption case in Qld had a lot to do with the state Labor government’s downfall. Strangely the public don’t like corruption.

    The ICAC hearings in NSW are probably causing most of this. Labor federally needs to firmly distance itself from the NSW Labor machine, probably by a formal intervention to clean out the Branch. I’d be surprised if something like intervention is not in the plan between now and the election.

  • 45
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    “@domknight: It’s entirely plausible that Kevin Rudd wouldn’t want to be PM again. It’d interrupt his media schedule.”

  • 46
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    ajm

    Maybe Feds are waiting for Libs to be names first then go in.

  • 47
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    I see this post has 65 Facebook likes. That’s a lot (for me, anyway).

  • 48
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    What can I use in place of juniper berries in a recipe? And don’t say gin because I don’t have any!

  • 49
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    William:

    Congratulations.

  • 50
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    “@firstdogonmoon: oh australia RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Should ALP change leader: Yes 52 (+4) No 45 (-3) #auspol”

    Was this question asked for LNP?

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