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Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year joins the chorus in showing a big slump for Julia Gillard and her government.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).

We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.

UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.

5068
  • 51
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Meh labor seems to have lost 6 primary points in a heartbeat.
    It can be picked up just as easily.

  • 52
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    I’d stock up if I were you, Confessions.

  • 53
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Matty D
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:53 pm | PERMALINK
    Suck it up lefties, suck it up lefties, whilst myself and my fellow Conservatives to a VERY merry dance.

    while it is nice MD, i do remember a time not that long ago (PM Kevin) when we were on the ropes.

  • 54
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Yes it was Guytaur – same result for the libs, ie change leader.

  • 55
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Latest polling (in order of recency):
    56 ACN
    55 Essential
    56 Morgan F2F
    56 Newspoll
    54 Galaxy

    Average (unweighted) = 55.6%

    ALP Primary votes:
    30 ACN
    34 Essential
    34 Morgan F2F
    32 Newspoll
    35 Galaxy

    Average = 33

    Coal Primary votes:
    47 ACN
    48 Essential
    45 Morgan F2F
    48 Newspoll
    48 Galaxy

    Average = 47

  • 56
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Mordor and the LNP have put everything into panicking the ALP into a change, and I, being the stubborn, contrary bytch that I be, wouldn’t give them what they want to save my life.

    Agreed. They were desperate to force a leadership change RIGHT NOW. Not sure why – maybe they knew this was their last shot, or they just wanted to make sure any “honeymoon” bounce a new leader might have got was over before the election – assuming there was actually going to be such a thing.

    Also, the LNP appear to have been trying to stave off a challenge within their own team. There has to be a reason so many of them have been looking so downcast recently, if their own internal polling was showing them this kind of result.

    At this point, Labor simply needs to hold their collective nerve.

  • 57
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Confessions, I think the deal is that this post is the only thing online at the moment you can “like” if you’re happy (or at least very interested) about the Nielsen result.

  • 58
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Matty D 43 Gloating Tories, all vacuous, sneering, angry young men, embittered and rankerous, only further reinforces my committment to the ALP. Thanks for your contribution tonight

  • 59
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Henry

  • 60
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    William:

    Mother’s Ruin. Bubbles is more my style.

  • 61
    BK
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    Labor should legislate like crazy for the next six months.

  • 62
    James J
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    No newspoll.

  • 63
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear James J why not?
    Release on tuesday so tomorrow can serve up more leadershit and then the same for weds, thurs etc…

  • 64
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    BK

    Yes win or lose. I think that is the plan by PMJG saying governing now campaign later.

  • 65
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    James J
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:01 pm | PERMALINK
    No newspoll.

    Conspiracy! there hiding a bad poll for Labor, argh.

  • 66
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Well Rummel, @35
    Did you tell your wife that this is a concerted campaign by the elites to change the government before it can embed social and economic changes that will make her and her children’s future, and keep her safer, more secure and prosperous?

    And that there are ALP supporters out there willing to fight the tories at every level to see that her family does not become victims of the 1% who prey on the 99%, of which you and your family are a part?

    Did you explain that it is imperative for L/NP that progressive voters are disillusioned and their energy sapped at the start of an election campaign, so that they see a L/NP victory as inevitable? And that we won’t fall for it.

    Did you let her know that their are people who care enough to stand between her and her family being robbed of their social and financial capital, just like you stand between the flames and everything that a person owns?

    There is a firestorm brewing in Australia. The devastation that will be wreaked by the reactionary right-wing ideology and it’s economic policies, which has already devastated other first world countries, rendering them into second world countries, is planned for us – you and me.

    Where will you be, fighting for your country or MIA?

  • 67
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    William:

    That’s why I offered my congratulations.

    Nothing beats new media for speed in reportage.

  • 68
    James J
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    I assume because they normally release on Tuesday.

  • 69
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    The elephant in the room, which most here refuse to confront, is that Julia Gillard is now significantly behind a nong like Abbott in the PPM.

    Doesn’t this give you just a tiny clue about her standing in the electorate?

  • 70
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Ajm raises a good point about Qld corruption and reelection. I think the simple fact is that corrupt individuals can crop up anywhere, but you are judged by your response. Beatty ensured any corrupt Qld Labor pliticians were prosecuted; Nuttall and late Rose were jailed. Howard had Senator Wood and several other expense cheats early in his leadership. They were dealt with (Wood was jailed) and Howard survived. The point is both Beatty and Howard were seen to act, and both were reflected.

    By contrast, governments that don’t prosecute corrupt members earn the voters wrath when outed. Consider the fate of the Joh Qld Natonals and NSW Labor, soon the Gillard government too. As the Greeks would say, hubris is a fatal weakness.

  • 71
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    bemused:

    I think we have established that NOTHING will convince some here that Gillard is unpopular.

  • 72
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    bemused@69


    The elephant in the room, which most here refuse to confront, is that Julia Gillard is now significantly behind a nong like Abbott in the PPM.

    Doesn’t this give you just a tiny clue about her standing in the electorate?

    I agree about the “nong” bit. The rest is your usual crap.

  • 73
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    Caucus is not for changing. That has not changed with this polling round.

    So give it up already. Its not desperation return to Rudd time yet. June a different matter

  • 74
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    fess

    Dried blueberry.

    Bay leaf as a last resort.

  • 75
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    No bemused, it gives an inkling into the carnage Rudd has wrought over the last two – three weeks.
    Labor was close to neck to neck and JG sailing away from Abbott until he started tarting himself about again.

  • 76
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Bemused 69 Nope. Julia can take the low blows. She’s for the long game ending Sept 14.

  • 77
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Where will you be, fighting for your country or MIA?

    Thats a tad dramatic Puff, Labor will be back in two or three terms. Its not the end of the world!

  • 78
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    You see … this is why we need a system in which people get to vote deliberatively — on policies they’d like rather than the latest talking point.

    This is why we need a system in which people come to understand politics rather than work out which tribe and which soap opera characters they like/hate more.

    It’s very clear that the LNP have nothing like coherent policies and have a leader who has spent the last 2+ years dragging the very idea of politics through the mud. He more than any other figure is responsible for the low standing of parliament — and yet, he seems to be benefitting from it.

    Yes, he has a very friendly media context, but this too reflects the reality that people see themselves largely as passive bystanders. “Politics” washes over them like the weather. In that context, the media can say what it pleases. They are part of “the weather”. This is why they spend so much time working out ‘how things will play’. They think it’s all about them and there’s hardly anyone in a position to say otherwise loudly.

    The ALP may yet win. The election is still a long way off — but for those of us who care mainly about public policy and public engagement — I see the public losing this election — as they always do — regardless of who wins.

  • 79
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    I feel comfortable and relaxed.

    Sort of on top of a hill watching the churn below.

  • 80
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    On top of Bullshit Mountain TLBD?

  • 81
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    Why does it only have to be Rudd? Mind you I think it’s too late now to do anything.

  • 82
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    Dio:

    Thanks. Bay leaf it is.

  • 83
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    Player One@72


    bemused@69


    The elephant in the room, which most here refuse to confront, is that Julia Gillard is now significantly behind a nong like Abbott in the PPM.


    Doesn’t this give you just a tiny clue about her standing in the electorate?


    I agree about the “nong” bit. The rest is your usual crap.

    No Player One, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious.

  • 84
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    BK
    I agree. Start by slugging the miners, and extending that tax across to other resources. Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.

  • 85
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    No Player One, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious.

    That it is.

  • 86
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    davidwh@81


    Why does it only have to be Rudd? Mind you I think it’s too late now to do anything.

    I think to be realistic, it has to be Rudd or Gillard. And the OM would much prefer Rudd because he’s a known quantity with so many weakpoints that he could be demolished with comparative ease.

    Anyone else might put up a fight. And against a tough opponent, Abbott doesn’t stand a chance.

  • 87
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    William Bowe@57


    Confessions, I think the deal is that this post is the only thing online at the moment you can “like” if you’re happy (or at least very interested) about the Nielsen result.

    Bludgers need to “O my dog” whatever!

    Bit like after a Big Event: all have to settele.

  • 88
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Henry@75


    No bemused, it gives an inkling into the carnage Rudd has wrought over the last two – three weeks.
    Labor was close to neck to neck and JG sailing away from Abbott until he started tarting himself about again.

    Rudd is merely your convenient scapegoat.

  • 89
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Legislate gay marriage, heck, make it compulsory for LNP members. :evil:

  • 90
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Player One few come tougher than Gillard.

  • 91
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    Goodnight all

    Remember 2010 election. MSM campaigned hard against Labor then too.

    Now more use SM so more getting truth. Not just reliant on QandA and Sky News Town Halls.

  • 92
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    The betting odds say its Rudd or Gillard. People like Shorten and Crean are 15 to 1 now.

  • 93
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    puff

    thanks good :lol: to go to bed on.

  • 94
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Facts are often inconvenient bemused.

  • 95
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    I think, if Newspoll, more or less, confirms this all, things are going to get interesting over the next few weeks.

    Barring things suddenly being different, the only thing saving Gillard’s leadership is Rudd maybe deciding the leadership is poisoned chalice and not worth pursuing…

  • 96
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    So no Newspoll tonight? Is that right?

  • 97
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    As I said earlier today, I really wish (allegedly pro-Labor) people would drop the whole Rudd thing. There is more to this sort of result than Rudd. Sprocket mentioned four plausible reasons for it, of which Rudd may be responsible for one. Gillard and her cabinet need to deal with the other three pronto, and govern well from now till July. I mention her cabinet because I think the problems extend beyond Gillard. Swan has been poor of late. The departure of Roxon and Evans exposes that there is not that much talent left. The rest have to work hard, listen to advice, and speak carefully for the next six months. Promised reforms need to proceed, but no weird stuff out of left field, that just reeks of panic.

  • 98
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/parents-cry-for-help-from-charities/story-e6freuy9-1226579401922

    ONE of Australia’s leading charities has reported a 30 per cent increase in calls for help, which it has attributed to the changes in the single parenting payment scheme.

  • 99
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Henry@94


    Facts are often inconvenient bemused.

    Well they sure aren’t helping you in the case you want to argue.

  • 100
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    rummel,
    That is not dramatic. It is how it is.
    Will Greece be back on track after two or three terms? Or Spain?

    How is the USA doing even after one term of the progressives getting back in power? Is it all fixed, after the GOP wrecked the joint?

    It will take 20 years to fix Qld after Newman.

    These people are nuts. Not mental illness nor psychological disability.

    They are bat-shit crazy.

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