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Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year joins the chorus in showing a big slump for Julia Gillard and her government.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).

We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.

UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.

5068
  • 101
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    BK@61


    Labor should legislate like crazy for the next six months.

    That is exactly the wrong thing to do.

    Labor needs to create an atmosphere of calm and being in control.

    Joe Hockey gave it away this morning on Meet The Press with is talk about chaos etc. That is the meme the Libs are intent on creating and further rapid change feeds into it.

  • 102
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Promised reforms need to proceed, but no weird stuff out of left field, that just reeks of panic.

    Agree. This includes yet another leadership change.

  • 103
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    Duckie,
    I am joining you on that hill. Open us a good red, mate.

  • 104
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    “Well they sure aren’t helping you in the case you want to argue.”

    I see you are off with the pixies again bemused. Nevermind, one day you might work it out.

  • 105
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    As unsympathetic as I am to Julia Gillard’s politics, it would be scandalous and embarrassing if, once again, the elite of this country proved able to remove a sitting PM from power. Win lose or another near tie, IMO, the ALP have to stick with their leader or lose all self-respect.

    If they change again now, it will again look cynical. Once again, Abbott will be handed another vitcory and his stature will grow. This would be especially the case if it were Rudd that returned because this is precisely the change the LNP have been pressing for. He could claim to be in charge of both parties and the media would again be able to run their dysfunction memes. The new leader will be damaged from the outset — something that would not be the case, if the ALP lost and simply chose a new leader.

    The ALP must seek to win with Gillard at the helm or go down swinging IMO — so that at least they have something to pitch when, as will inevitably be the case if Abbott wins, a shambles ensues.

  • 106
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    davidwh@90


    Player One few come tougher than Gillard.

    Exactly. And that is what is required to take Abbott down. If I thought anyone else could do this, I’d support them instead. But there just isn’t anyone.

    Only deluded fuddy-duddies like bemused and feeney think Rudd could do so. Personally, I don’t think Rudd would have a hope of standing up to the kind of low campaign this is going to be – and neither does the caucus.

    Abbott warned us this was going to be a dirty campaign, and this is probably the only time you could say that he and the LNP have lived up to their word!

  • 107
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    This polling reminds me of between certain polling last year? (see graph to the right)….. In other words – meh.

  • 108
    Fil R
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Well given some responses to the latest poll figures what I do think of are the words of General Melchett in the Blackadder series about the butchery of World War I :

    “If nothing else works, then a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.”

    And of course, people are free to re-apply the sentiment to any particular slant they favour.

    F

  • 109
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    If they change again now, it will again look cynical. Once again, Abbott will be handed another vitcory and his stature will grow.

    Bingo. As many of us have been saying for ages now, this is precisely why the coalition continue to goad Labor into changing leaders.

    It simply amplifies the instability message, and depicts the opposition as the stable pair of hands in a time of yet more govt turmoil.

  • 110
    The Unusual Moustache
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    the leaking two fridays ago was deliberately timed for the newspoll in order to set the tone of debate of politics for the next month at least.

    the finger should be pointed to rudd

    he needs to be expelled from the party

  • 111
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott (pimatur Peta) wants this campaign to be on trust (I’m sure Spacey has the edicts)

    Labor has so many bullets on these!

    The numbers of lies and obfuscations are countably innumerate.

  • 112
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Gee, Peter Hartcher is in quick to bayonet the wounded

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/for-gillard-the-bad-news-comes-in-threes-20130217-2elbp.html

    Must be still smarting over the 15.4% drop in circulation and $2.7b loss at FairfaxMedia. But hey, Rudd fanboi #1 can still pump out more nails for his company’s coffin in rapid time.

  • 113
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Henry@104


    “Well they sure aren’t helping you in the case you want to argue.”

    I see you are off with the pixies again bemused. Nevermind, one day you might work it out.

    Well Henry, we will see how this plays out.

    I suspect Gillard’s previous lead as PPM and higher popularity rating than Abbott was fending off any move in Caucus. Now it is gone and her fate is in the hands of Caucus.

  • 114
    stanny
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Bemused I always enjoy your combative posts. It is pretty obvious you have been on he right track for many months and yet you get so much crap thrown at you for straight forward pragmatism. I obviously want Labor to lose just as you want Labor to win but you would think that the majority of Bludgers are hell bent on wanting Labor to lose as well. They are backing the wrong horse and that is great. I just hope a I have said for two years that they stick with her and particularly Wayne Swan middle Australia will not a bar of it her of them.
    I reckon Rudd would have been a viable option mid last year but was destroyed by several notable colleagues so that only leaves Shorten IMHO . Shortern would be hard to beat but there is a definite major vibe for a change now except in Victoria I reckon he would go close but not get the chocolates therefore, he will wait a while as he will not want to be opposition leader straight away.
    Perhaps Bob Carr might have a lash after all he was very successful in NSW was never tied to Obeid and Mc Donald and with Egan had a very good fiscal record in Govt.

  • 115
    The Unusual Moustache
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    is it possible gillard just expels rudd from the party

  • 116
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Option A) Install Rudd as PM again, immediate election, guaranteed loss.

    Option B) Keep Gillard, election in September, highly likely election loss, but an extreme circumstance (eg. Abbott significant gaffe/detrimental leak) can change things.

    Both situations are dire. But only one is a foregone conclusion.

  • 117
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Leaving personalities aside, having not changed PMs in an election year for a very long time (maybe never) before 2010, it seems inconceivable that it would be done in successive election years.

  • 118
    Graeme
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Sigh. Beyond doomed is doomder?

  • 119
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    On this site some( and where is GG now ?)have given us the constant manta about the PM…how she is the Earth Mother and the Virgin Many all rolled into one…now it is crystal clear that the voters don’t buy that..

    Who could overlook the muddle over the Mining Tax.and she’s stuck with NSW mafia and a host of criminals there…and btw whatever happened to “Mr America” Mark Arbib..and why did he vanish ! .
    ?
    There’s not much left to try…Rudd ..who knows…might be worth a go

    Interesting times ! as the Chineae say

  • 120
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    bdmused,

    Birth or enshrinement?

  • 121
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    The leader’s fate in always in the hands of Caucus.

  • 122
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    The Unusual Moustache@110


    the leaking two fridays ago was deliberately timed for the newspoll in order to set the tone of debate of politics for the next month at least.

    the finger should be pointed to rudd

    he needs to be expelled from the party

    I told you earlier today what you need to do to achieve that.

    Now put up or shut up.

  • 123
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    What’s new Pussycat, whoa, whoa, whoa

  • 124
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    @stanny/114

    And the shit that bemused thrown at us because we don’t agree with bemused, in this case, it takes two to tango.

    So if bemused wants to destroy Rudd + ALP at the same time, go right ahead.

    The same for everyone else.

  • 125
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Fran
    I agree with you.

  • 126
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    There are always the safe hands sitting in the Senate.

    Just sayin.

  • 127
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    gloryconsequence@116


    Option A) Install Rudd as PM again, immediate election, guaranteed loss.

    Option B) Keep Gillard, election in September, highly likely election loss, but an extreme circumstance (eg. Abbott significant gaffe/detrimental leak) can change things.

    Both situations are dire. But only one is a foregone conclusion.

    Yes, I agree. The only part I would contest is that an “Abbott significant gaffe” is an extreme circumstance.

    It is not a matter of whether Abbott will have a significant gaffe or another brain-fade, it is not even a matter of when – it is a matter of how many times. If Credlin is worth her salt, she will continue to keep Abbott wrapped in cotton wool as much as possible. But can she do this for 7 months?

  • 128
    markjs
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Julia ain’t going anywhere ….Caucus won’t have Rudd back at any price ….This is the equivalent of the kitchen sink + the kitchen being thrown at Julia, but she won’t lay down and die….

    She comes from hardy Welsh stock & has the guts, courage, intellect & political nous to come through this bombardment & beat that miserable narcissistic coward Abbott….

    Go Julia …you good thing!!

  • 129
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    I have had enough of how long Crikey gets my replies and publishes them.

  • 130
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Dear PM @JuliaGillard The only poll is Sept 14th we are with you all the way & we know what you are up against – http://t.co/nHRMdgIF

  • 131
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    I know Rudd won’t be back as leader.

    Doesn’t stop him from blindsiding. He’s not the only problem Labor has – for the most part they should look at themselves – but he’s a significant factor.

  • 132
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    stanny@114


    Bemused I always enjoy your combative posts. It is pretty obvious you have been on he right track for many months and yet you get so much crap thrown at you for straight forward pragmatism. I obviously want Labor to lose just as you want Labor to win but you would think that the majority of Bludgers are hell bent on wanting Labor to lose as well. They are backing the wrong horse and that is great. I just hope a I have said for two years that they stick with her and particularly Wayne Swan middle Australia will not a bar of it her of them.
    I reckon Rudd would have been a viable option mid last year but was destroyed by several notable colleagues so that only leaves Shorten IMHO . Shortern would be hard to beat but there is a definite major vibe for a change now except in Victoria I reckon he would go close but not get the chocolates therefore, he will wait a while as he will not want to be opposition leader straight away.
    Perhaps Bob Carr might have a lash after all he was very successful in NSW was never tied to Obeid and Mc Donald and with Egan had a very good fiscal record in Govt.

    Hmmmmm not sure your praise assists me.

    My posts are not combative, just stating common sense. Unfortunately, with the exception of a handful of other ALP members posting here, it is not very common.

    I doubt Shorten will go anywhere.

  • 133
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    The Unusual Moustache@115


    is it possible gillard just expels rudd from the party

    The ALP has due process for the laying and hearing of disciplinary charges and imposing any penalty on a member found guilty.

    We are not the dictatorship you seem to favour.

  • 134
    Mithrandir
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Can’t say I’m surprised by the Nielsen. Over the last two years it has given Labor its worst results.

  • 135
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    gloryconsequence@116


    Option A) Install Rudd as PM again, immediate election, guaranteed loss.

    Option B) Keep Gillard, election in September, highly likely election loss, but an extreme circumstance (eg. Abbott significant gaffe/detrimental leak) can change things.

    Both situations are dire. But only one is a foregone conclusion.

    And you picked the wrong one.

  • 136
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Doesn’t stop him from blindsiding.

    He’ll be gone after the election.

    Then the ALP can finally rid itself of his destructive influence.

  • 137
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Rudd is a traitor to the Labor Party, there is no other way to describe it. It’s in his DNA to only look after his own interest & his twisted view that he has the heavenly mandate to lead Labor and be the PM.

  • 138
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    is it possible gillard just expels rudd from the party

    She should’ve done it before the 2010 election.

  • 139
    The Unusual Moustache
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    bemused,

    expelling rudd from the party is the only thing that will well and truly kill of the leadership question – whilst keeping it open for the coalition hypothetically. this way leadership change in an election year will be impossible for labor but if the coalition were to do it it would all to remind them cynically of the 2010 change etc.

    also in the labor caucus there should be a rule of: if you are caught leaking you are disendorsed..

    AND THEN THAT ROTTEN MEDIA CAN FOCUS ON POLICIES FOR A CHANGE

  • 140
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    bemused

    Do you suggest that a “drafting” of Rudd could possibly result in a Rudd victory?

  • 141
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    I agree with Bemused, Confessions and Fran on the need for calmness and good government from Labor now, and no leadership change.

    Expelling Rudd now would be as stupid as a leadership change. It will just make Labor look vindictive, and make Rudd a martyr. Stupid.

    As a closing comment on corruption, sure enough Wikipedia has a relevant list! Here it is:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Australian_politicians_convicted_of_crimes

    I expect at least three names will be added within eighteen months. Night all.

  • 142
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Hmmmmm not sure your praise assists me.

    Hey bemused – has it occurred to you that you seem to get more praise on this site from LNP supporters than from ALP supporters?

    Of course, I’m sure all those LNP supporters really have Labor’s best interests at heart … but just maybe … just possibly … do you think there might be the slightest chance … that there is a message there that you are simply not hearing?

  • 143
    Mr Squiggle
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    If they change again now, it will again look cynical.

    I’m mildly suprised by this Fran.

    Describing another ALP leadership change as cynical, would be like searching for spots on a leopard.

    “Oh dear, golly-gosh look at this, we found some spots, [mumbles of astonishment etc]‘

    if it saves the furniture, (ie a few marginal seats) I’d be up for it,

  • 144
    The Unusual Moustache
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    socrates, do you really believe chatter about the leadership will die down in the next few weeks as they stick with leaders as the election approaches

  • 145
    James J
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    The greens primary was 11.

  • 146
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Wowsers…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDLAUmqp8f4

  • 147
    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Wake up Australia how can you have a PM who insisted a convicted pedophile as “a beacon of humanity at seminary” – http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-vouched-for-catholic-priest-later-struck-off-by-vatican/story-fncynjr2-1226571738051

  • 148
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    gloryconsequence@140


    bemused

    Do you suggest that a “drafting” of Rudd could possibly result in a Rudd victory?

    I think handled properly it could at the very least minimise losses.

    I have said before that he would need to initiate immediate action to clean up the mess in NSW to minimise losses there.

  • 149
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Socrates@141


    I agree with Bemused, Confessions and Fran on the need for calmness and good government from Labor now, and no leadership change.

    Thank god we all agree! Could we therefore also agree to stop with all the Rudd/Gillard crap?

  • 150
    markjs
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Bemused…

    Rudd is a treacherous narcissistic sociopath who has zero idea of how to work in a team towards a common goal… imho

    That you continuously abuse other contributors of this blog who hold this view …is a reflection on you. Your reflexive posting whenever the name Kevin Rudd comes up suggests you are determined to dominate the discussion & impose your will on those who disagree with you. There is a word for this behaviour…

    I find this domineering attitude offensive and inhibiting ….PollBludgers is NOT about you…

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